Iron ore | Steel | Coke | Nickel & Stainless Steel | Copper | Zinc | Aluminum | Precious Metals | Asphalt | Crude Oil | Fuel Oil | Pulp | Natural Rubber & No. 20 Glue | Plastics | Methanol | Urea | Steam Coal | PVC | PTA | PP | PF | MEG | EB.

Iron ore | Steel | Coke | Nickel and Stainless Steel | Copper | Zinc | Aluminum | precious metals | Asphalt | Crude Oil | Fuel Oil | Pulp | Natural Rubber and No. 20 Glue | Plastics | Methanol | Urea | Steam Coal | PVC | PTA | PP | PF | MEG | EB

Shen Enxian

Investment Consulting Practice Certificate Number: Z0013972

Iron ore

[Trading Strategy]

Night market iron ore price fluctuated slightly, the market price fell for three consecutive days, the current black market continued to decline, and the market pessimism was released. fundamentals , the current differences in the iron ore market are that, first, the pessimistic expectation of steel demand for terminal real estate has led to a strong basis for the main contract and a long-term discount structure. Second, the spot market is not pessimistic, steel mills imported iron ore inventory is low, and iron and water production continues to operate at a high level. From the perspective of supply and demand logic, the iron ore supply side is expected to shrink, and iron ore port inventory is expected to continue to be destocked. At the same time, considering that scrap steel consumption is expected to decline in the near future, it will support the high operation of iron and water production and further drive the demand for iron ore. Looking at the future market, it is difficult for the current market to trade pessimistic expectations of terminal demand again, and there is limited room for further price decline, and it is expected that the market price will stabilize and rebound.

Strategy: It is recommended to go long for iron ore 01, with 1/5 of the cross-period arbitrage mainly.

[Related Price]

On October 13 Mysteel 62% iron ore index was 93.95, down 1.9, with a monthly average of 95.47; 65% iron ore index was 107, down 2.4, with a monthly average of 108.54. (Unit: USD/Dry Ton)

[Important Information]

1. This week, Mysteel counted the total inventory of imported sintered powder from 114 steel mills in the new caliber was 26.0591 million tons, increased by .6368 million tons month-on-month, sintered powder total consumption was 1.0276 million tons, and decreased by 93,400 tons month-on-month.

2. According to Mysteel statistics, the total sales of 20 key real estate companies from January to September 2022 was 2701.376 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.87%, and the decline continued to shrink; the total sales in September were 332.143 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 7.56% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.47%.

3. On October 13, 56 of the 4126 blast furnaces in Tangshan, Tangshan, were repaired (including long-term suspension), with a total capacity of 42,452m³ of maintenance blast furnaces; the weekly impacted output was about 855,800 tons, and the weekly capacity utilization rate of was 74.42%, a decrease of 2.35% from the previous week, a month-on-month decrease of 1.87% and a year-on-year increase of 7.93%.

4. On October 13, the national main iron ore transactions were 975,000 tons, a decrease of 5.8% month-on-month; 237 mainstream traders sold 151,500 tons, a decrease of 8% month-on-month. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market.)

Steel

[Trading Strategy]

Last night, the United States announced September core CPI data, which showed that September cpi rose 8.2% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations. The market is worried that the Federal Reserve's Fed has raised interest rates sharply in November, and the macro pressure is highlighted. The average daily iron production of steel mills 247 was 2.4015 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons month-on-month. Social financing data in September was released. The five major materials data showed that the production of panels continued to rebound and inventory accumulation. Steel mills lacked their willingness to reduce blast furnaces, and the pressure on panels was greater than building materials. Spot market weakened after the holiday, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the overall high-price zone, and low-price sentiment dragging down transactions. Pay attention to the cumulative pressure caused by the decline in demand during important meetings, and there is certain support after the short-term blast furnace profit break-even.

unilateral: After short orders take profit, it is recommended to wait for the rebound to short opportunities.

Arbitrage: Long steel mills profits or long snail ore ratios, risk points: crude steel output rises beyond expectations, raw material supply decreases beyond expectations, etc.

[Spot price]

Spot: the online price of Shanghai Zhongtian thread 3950 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye 4020 (-20), Shanghai Bengang hot coil 3850 yuan (-30), Tianjin Hegang hot coil 3880 (-20).

[Important Information]

1. The US CPI rose 8.2% year-on-year in September, with an estimated 8.1%, with an previous value of 8.3%. The US CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, with an estimated 0.2%, with an previous value of 0.1%.

2. This week, the average cost of 40 independent arc furnace construction steel mills was 4168 yuan/ton, a week-on-month decrease of 46 yuan/ton. The average profit loss was 83 yuan/ton, and the profit of Valley Electric was 18 yuan/ton, a week-on-month decrease of 1 yuan/ton

3. As of October 13, according to incomplete statistics from Mysteel, a total of 8 provinces have released the latest information on epidemic prevention and control. Among them, Wenshui County, Luliang City, Shanxi Province will implement three-day temporary silent management for the whole county from 5:00 on October 13, and restrict the flow of people at train stations, bus stations, and highway intersections, and implement traffic control.

(The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market.)

Coking coal coke

[Trading Strategy]

After coal coke opened low last night, fluctuated narrowly within , At the macro level, my country's social financing data in September was released, better than market expectations, but the current monthly growth of social financing may be different from real estate sales data, and the market is still cautious about medium- and long-term steel demand; and last night, the US's unseasoned CPI annual rate recorded 8.2%, and the US's unseasoned core CPI annual rate recorded 6.6%, the highest since August 1982; data shows that inflation continues to maintain a strong momentum, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in November, and commodities collectively opened lower. At the industrial level, yesterday's data from the Steel Union showed that the double coke inventory continued to be sold, with coke destocking of 152,000 tons and coke coal destocking of 767,000 tons. This is mainly due to the recent strict safety supervision of coal mines in the production area. Coal coke prices rose, coke companies suffered losses, construction fell, and supply contraction, but iron and water production increased, the supply and demand pattern of coal coke was still tight and transportation has not fully recovered. After a sharp decline, the valuation of coal coke was relatively low. In the short term, coal coke may have a strong potential. Pay attention to domestic and foreign policies and steel demand.

[Related Price]

Spot: Rizhao and Qingdao Port coke spot trade current remittance warehouse: Quasi-first-level coke closing price 2760, and the coke warehouse receipt is calculated to be about 2967-3002 yuan/ton. The spot coke in Mongolia in Tangshan, Hebei is 2,382 yuan, and a single Mongolian coal warehouse receipt is about 2,382 yuan.

[Important Information]

1. This week, Mysteel Coal and Coke Division investigated the profitability of 30 independent coking plants nationwide, with an average profit of 1 ton of cokes in the country, with an average profit of 1 ton of cokes in the country -85 yuan/ton; the average profit of 119 yuan/ton in Shanxi, an average profit of 119 yuan/ton in Shandong, an average profit of 21 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia, an average profit of 75 yuan/ton in Hebei, and an average profit of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton

2. [My Steel] On October 14, Mysteel surveyed the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills at 82.62%, a decrease of 0.88% month-on-month last week and an increase of 4.55% year-on-year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 89.04%, a increase of 0.06% month-on-month, an increase of 8.38% year-on-year; the steel mill profit rate was 48.05%, a decrease of 3.46% month-on-month, a decrease of 40.69% year-on-year; the average daily iron and water production was 2.4015 million tons, a increase of 02,100 tons month-on-month, an increase of 239,300 tons year-on-year. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market.)

Wang Yingying

Investment Consulting Practice Certificate Number: Z0014913

nickel and stainless steel

prices of nickel and stainless steel rebounded sharply on Thursday. From the market perspective, the US CPI was higher than expected, and the entire market fell first and then rose, and used the data as a negative news. Friday is US retail data, and the market is estimated to be adjusted in the short term. Currently, the United States has raised interest rates by at least 75 basis points in November, which is a consensus expectation. The Federal Reserve may delay slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes from December. In the context of the general environment, interest rate hikes are suppressing the economy and consumption, we are still bearish about the general trend of the market and wait for nickel and stainless steel to fully release the rebound momentum in the short term.

spot consumption, 304, Foshan has basically completed the downstream phased stocking after 12th price correction. There are not many pick-up operations for the stable price in the day, and the spot resources of each place of origin are almost price-changed. Merchants' price adjustment mentality continues to slow down. Overall, this week's 304 cold rolling is mainly digested with the inventory of urgent needs; Wuxi spot inquiry and transactions have improved with the rise of futures . In addition, the cost of holding goods is high, merchants have not had much inventory, and spot prices have mostly risen.(The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

copper

London copper fluctuated yesterday, and internal trading performed relatively strongly. On the macro side, the US unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate in September was 8.2%, the smallest increase since February 2022; the US unseasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate in September was 6.6%, the highest since August 1982; data shows that inflation continues to maintain a strong momentum, so the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in November. Spot stocks are still very tight, and social inventory and bonded area inventory are very low. In recent days, the cancellation of warehouse receipts for lme Asian warehouses have increased, but it will take three weeks to ship and customs clearance, and it will flow into the country until November. In October, even if there are not many copper warehouses, the stock squeeze market is still continuing. As Hubei smelters have been postponed to put into production, and some smelters have overhauled in November, the market's expectations of squeezing positions have even continued until November. However, under the current price and price difference, the downstream losses are very serious and the delivery force is very weak. Some copper rod factories have begun to shut down the furnace of and are in a wait-and-see state. However, we learned that the orders of the cable factory are pretty good, and the downstream is just afraid of the high and refuses to accept the goods. If the copper price falls, the downstream will still accept the goods.

price, LME has been fluctuating recently, and the internal market is relatively strong. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 75BP in November, which is a suppression of the foreign market, but it is still difficult to get out of the trend under the expectation of squeezing positions in the internal market.

Iron ore | Steel | Coke | Nickel and Stainless Steel | Copper | Zinc | Aluminum | precious metals | Asphalt | Crude Oil | Fuel Oil | Pulp | Natural Rubber and No. 20 Glue | Plastics | Methanol | Urea | Steam Coal | PVC | PTA | PP | PF | MEG | EB

Shen Enxian

Investment Consulting Practice Certificate Number: Z0013972

Iron ore

[Trading Strategy]

Night market iron ore price fluctuated slightly, the market price fell for three consecutive days, the current black market continued to decline, and the market pessimism was released. fundamentals , the current differences in the iron ore market are that, first, the pessimistic expectation of steel demand for terminal real estate has led to a strong basis for the main contract and a long-term discount structure. Second, the spot market is not pessimistic, steel mills imported iron ore inventory is low, and iron and water production continues to operate at a high level. From the perspective of supply and demand logic, the iron ore supply side is expected to shrink, and iron ore port inventory is expected to continue to be destocked. At the same time, considering that scrap steel consumption is expected to decline in the near future, it will support the high operation of iron and water production and further drive the demand for iron ore. Looking at the future market, it is difficult for the current market to trade pessimistic expectations of terminal demand again, and there is limited room for further price decline, and it is expected that the market price will stabilize and rebound.

Strategy: It is recommended to go long for iron ore 01, with 1/5 of the cross-period arbitrage mainly.

[Related Price]

On October 13 Mysteel 62% iron ore index was 93.95, down 1.9, with a monthly average of 95.47; 65% iron ore index was 107, down 2.4, with a monthly average of 108.54. (Unit: USD/Dry Ton)

[Important Information]

1. This week, Mysteel counted the total inventory of imported sintered powder from 114 steel mills in the new caliber was 26.0591 million tons, increased by .6368 million tons month-on-month, sintered powder total consumption was 1.0276 million tons, and decreased by 93,400 tons month-on-month.

2. According to Mysteel statistics, the total sales of 20 key real estate companies from January to September 2022 was 2701.376 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.87%, and the decline continued to shrink; the total sales in September were 332.143 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 7.56% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.47%.

3. On October 13, 56 of the 4126 blast furnaces in Tangshan, Tangshan, were repaired (including long-term suspension), with a total capacity of 42,452m³ of maintenance blast furnaces; the weekly impacted output was about 855,800 tons, and the weekly capacity utilization rate of was 74.42%, a decrease of 2.35% from the previous week, a month-on-month decrease of 1.87% and a year-on-year increase of 7.93%.

4. On October 13, the national main iron ore transactions were 975,000 tons, a decrease of 5.8% month-on-month; 237 mainstream traders sold 151,500 tons, a decrease of 8% month-on-month. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market.)

Steel

[Trading Strategy]

Last night, the United States announced September core CPI data, which showed that September cpi rose 8.2% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations. The market is worried that the Federal Reserve's Fed has raised interest rates sharply in November, and the macro pressure is highlighted. The average daily iron production of steel mills 247 was 2.4015 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons month-on-month. Social financing data in September was released. The five major materials data showed that the production of panels continued to rebound and inventory accumulation. Steel mills lacked their willingness to reduce blast furnaces, and the pressure on panels was greater than building materials. Spot market weakened after the holiday, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the overall high-price zone, and low-price sentiment dragging down transactions. Pay attention to the cumulative pressure caused by the decline in demand during important meetings, and there is certain support after the short-term blast furnace profit break-even.

unilateral: After short orders take profit, it is recommended to wait for the rebound to short opportunities.

Arbitrage: Long steel mills profits or long snail ore ratios, risk points: crude steel output rises beyond expectations, raw material supply decreases beyond expectations, etc.

[Spot price]

Spot: the online price of Shanghai Zhongtian thread 3950 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye 4020 (-20), Shanghai Bengang hot coil 3850 yuan (-30), Tianjin Hegang hot coil 3880 (-20).

[Important Information]

1. The US CPI rose 8.2% year-on-year in September, with an estimated 8.1%, with an previous value of 8.3%. The US CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, with an estimated 0.2%, with an previous value of 0.1%.

2. This week, the average cost of 40 independent arc furnace construction steel mills was 4168 yuan/ton, a week-on-month decrease of 46 yuan/ton. The average profit loss was 83 yuan/ton, and the profit of Valley Electric was 18 yuan/ton, a week-on-month decrease of 1 yuan/ton

3. As of October 13, according to incomplete statistics from Mysteel, a total of 8 provinces have released the latest information on epidemic prevention and control. Among them, Wenshui County, Luliang City, Shanxi Province will implement three-day temporary silent management for the whole county from 5:00 on October 13, and restrict the flow of people at train stations, bus stations, and highway intersections, and implement traffic control.

(The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market.)

Coking coal coke

[Trading Strategy]

After coal coke opened low last night, fluctuated narrowly within , At the macro level, my country's social financing data in September was released, better than market expectations, but the current monthly growth of social financing may be different from real estate sales data, and the market is still cautious about medium- and long-term steel demand; and last night, the US's unseasoned CPI annual rate recorded 8.2%, and the US's unseasoned core CPI annual rate recorded 6.6%, the highest since August 1982; data shows that inflation continues to maintain a strong momentum, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in November, and commodities collectively opened lower. At the industrial level, yesterday's data from the Steel Union showed that the double coke inventory continued to be sold, with coke destocking of 152,000 tons and coke coal destocking of 767,000 tons. This is mainly due to the recent strict safety supervision of coal mines in the production area. Coal coke prices rose, coke companies suffered losses, construction fell, and supply contraction, but iron and water production increased, the supply and demand pattern of coal coke was still tight and transportation has not fully recovered. After a sharp decline, the valuation of coal coke was relatively low. In the short term, coal coke may have a strong potential. Pay attention to domestic and foreign policies and steel demand.

[Related Price]

Spot: Rizhao and Qingdao Port coke spot trade current remittance warehouse: Quasi-first-level coke closing price 2760, and the coke warehouse receipt is calculated to be about 2967-3002 yuan/ton. The spot coke in Mongolia in Tangshan, Hebei is 2,382 yuan, and a single Mongolian coal warehouse receipt is about 2,382 yuan.

[Important Information]

1. This week, Mysteel Coal and Coke Division investigated the profitability of 30 independent coking plants nationwide, with an average profit of 1 ton of cokes in the country, with an average profit of 1 ton of cokes in the country -85 yuan/ton; the average profit of 119 yuan/ton in Shanxi, an average profit of 119 yuan/ton in Shandong, an average profit of 21 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia, an average profit of 75 yuan/ton in Hebei, and an average profit of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton of 1 ton

2. [My Steel] On October 14, Mysteel surveyed the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills at 82.62%, a decrease of 0.88% month-on-month last week and an increase of 4.55% year-on-year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 89.04%, a increase of 0.06% month-on-month, an increase of 8.38% year-on-year; the steel mill profit rate was 48.05%, a decrease of 3.46% month-on-month, a decrease of 40.69% year-on-year; the average daily iron and water production was 2.4015 million tons, a increase of 02,100 tons month-on-month, an increase of 239,300 tons year-on-year. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market.)

Wang Yingying

Investment Consulting Practice Certificate Number: Z0014913

nickel and stainless steel

prices of nickel and stainless steel rebounded sharply on Thursday. From the market perspective, the US CPI was higher than expected, and the entire market fell first and then rose, and used the data as a negative news. Friday is US retail data, and the market is estimated to be adjusted in the short term. Currently, the United States has raised interest rates by at least 75 basis points in November, which is a consensus expectation. The Federal Reserve may delay slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes from December. In the context of the general environment, interest rate hikes are suppressing the economy and consumption, we are still bearish about the general trend of the market and wait for nickel and stainless steel to fully release the rebound momentum in the short term.

spot consumption, 304, Foshan has basically completed the downstream phased stocking after 12th price correction. There are not many pick-up operations for the stable price in the day, and the spot resources of each place of origin are almost price-changed. Merchants' price adjustment mentality continues to slow down. Overall, this week's 304 cold rolling is mainly digested with the inventory of urgent needs; Wuxi spot inquiry and transactions have improved with the rise of futures . In addition, the cost of holding goods is high, merchants have not had much inventory, and spot prices have mostly risen.(The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

copper

London copper fluctuated yesterday, and internal trading performed relatively strongly. On the macro side, the US unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate in September was 8.2%, the smallest increase since February 2022; the US unseasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate in September was 6.6%, the highest since August 1982; data shows that inflation continues to maintain a strong momentum, so the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in November. Spot stocks are still very tight, and social inventory and bonded area inventory are very low. In recent days, the cancellation of warehouse receipts for lme Asian warehouses have increased, but it will take three weeks to ship and customs clearance, and it will flow into the country until November. In October, even if there are not many copper warehouses, the stock squeeze market is still continuing. As Hubei smelters have been postponed to put into production, and some smelters have overhauled in November, the market's expectations of squeezing positions have even continued until November. However, under the current price and price difference, the downstream losses are very serious and the delivery force is very weak. Some copper rod factories have begun to shut down the furnace of and are in a wait-and-see state. However, we learned that the orders of the cable factory are pretty good, and the downstream is just afraid of the high and refuses to accept the goods. If the copper price falls, the downstream will still accept the goods.

price, LME has been fluctuating recently, and the internal market is relatively strong. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 75BP in November, which is a suppression of the foreign market, but it is still difficult to get out of the trend under the expectation of squeezing positions in the internal market.(The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

zinc

Last night, the US inflation data exceeded market expectations, and it suppressed global risk assets. However, most varieties then rebounded under the pullback of the US dollar and the rise in crude oil, and the stock market rebounded. Among them, LME zinc futures finally closed down 8 US dollars, at 2901 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai zinc 2211 fell 130 yuan to close at 24,550 yuan/ton;

Macro, the US core CPIht in September in September ml3 grew by 6.6% year-on-year, the highest level since 1982, exceeding market expectations. US dollar index soared, and US stock commodities and other products fell sharply when they heard the news. But then the stock market crude oil commodities and other Jedi counterattacks were mainly driven by three aspects. One is that the periodic negative news was over after the inflation data was released, and the other is the efforts of euro zone , especially the current traders bet on the situation in the UK. The pound and British bonds soared last night. It was reported that British officials were trying to reverse Prime Minister Trass' tax cut plan and suppress the trend of the US dollar index to a certain extent. The last factor is fundamental factors. More strong, low inventory is weak supply and the reverse structure of the market is large, supporting prices;

fundamentals, strong reality is weak, high premium leads to weak downstream demand, and the purchase of goods is not positive, spot stocks fall back to the premium of the month; on the supply side, on the one hand, only 13,000 tons of registered warehouse receipts remain. Although spot demand is weak, inventory remains low. On the other hand, according to SMM statistics in September and October, the production of refined zinc was 503,400 tons, but in November and December, the expected output will rise to around 540,000 to 550,000 tons, and the expected increase in output will play a certain role in the price. Suppression; in terms of trading strategies of

, zinc inventory is currently at a low level, and domestic refined zinc production is stimulated by maintaining the profits of imported ore and smelting profits. However, the current monthly structure is difficult to stimulate large-scale stockpiling. If the profits of zinc concentrate smelting profits cannot effectively stimulate domestic production, then the refined import window may remain open. Strong reality and weak expectations make the window open at the near-month end. The window period for domestic production is expected to be in November. The structure of large back and the current situation of low inventory makes it easy to rise and difficult to fall (the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market)

aluminum

Last night, the US inflation data stimulated the roller coaster market, non-ferrous metal fluctuated in the width, and the second half of the year, the copper, aluminum and oil stock markets rose sharply. Among them, LME aluminum futures closed up $54 to US$2,360/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum 2211 contract once rushed to around 18,700, up 185 yuan and closed at 18,580 yuan/ton;

Macro, the US core CPI in September increased by 6.6% year-on-year, the highest level since 1982 The swap contract shows that the US policy interest rate peaked at 4.85% in March 2023, exceeding market expectations, the US dollar index soared, and US stocks and other news fell sharply; but then the stock market crude oil commodities and other Jedi counterattacks were mainly driven by three aspects: one is that the periodic negative news was exhausted after the inflation data was released, and the other is the efforts of the euro zone, especially the current traders bet on the British bond market. The pound and British bonds soared last night. It was reported that British officials were trying to reverse Prime Minister Tras' tax cut plan to suppress the trend of the US dollar index to a certain extent; the last factor is that fundamental factors are relatively strong, especially copper and zinc are still pressing positions, and aluminum inventory is maintained Against the backdrop of high low-priced costs, not to mention that foreign markets are still trading to restrict Rusal’s related policies, which are relatively firm, and there is a chance if there is fluctuation; in terms of fundamentals of

, the resumption of production in in Sichuan is basically in line with expectations. It is expected that by December, the province will resume production to around 70%, and the Inner Mongolia Baiyinhua will be put into production to about 50,000 tons, with a slow progress, and it is expected to be around 140,000 tons by the end of the year; inventory has begun to be sold recently, but the atmosphere of spot transactions is sluggish, and the basis for delivery has further weakened. The absolute price rise and the monthly difference has expanded, and the trade link is not bought in the trade link, and the selling is more active. , but judging from the outbound data, the performance of the urgent needs is acceptable; in terms of trading strategies of

, the current view of fluctuations in the aluminum price range is currently maintained. The fourth quarter is a time window period when bulls can go long at lows, and it is backed by the social weighted average cost line of 17800 to 18200, and light positions are long; in terms of arbitrage, the main set continues to hold (the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry)

precious metals

Yesterday, precious metals rose first and then fell, but finally closed down.The U.S. inflation data released yesterday triggered violent fluctuations in the entire financial market. The US dollar index fell below 113 after the CPI was announced. The yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bonds rose to 4%, the highest level since 2011. The U.S. Treasury bond yield hit a 15-year high two years ago. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds once exceeded 4%. In terms of

data, the US unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate in September recorded 8.2%, the smallest increase since February 2022; the US unseasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate in September recorded 6.6%, the highest since August 1982; the US after the seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate in September recorded 0.4%, which was once again higher than general expectations. Data shows that inflation continues to maintain strong momentum, so the market expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in November. The number of initial unemployment claims in the United States recorded 228,000 in the week ending October 8, the highest since the week ending September 1, 2022. U.S. mortgage rates soared to a 20-year high, reaching 6.92%.

Currently, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 75 basis points in November rose to more than 90%, which will put pressure on precious metals. But considering the risk aversion and inflation, there is also support below, which can also be found by yesterday's market trend. Therefore, a cautious and bearish view remains. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

Songyang

Investment Consulting Practice Certificate Number: Z0000551

Asphalt

[Traffic Review]

BU12 closed at 4008 points (+0.70%) at night.

[Important Information]

Spot, the domestic asphalt spot market maintains a large stable and weak trend, prices in Shandong region mainly fall, and the competition among brands of resources is fierce, low-priced resources are mostly pre-contracts and arbitrage sources shipments, demand in the region is relatively stable, and the overall inventory pressure of refineries is limited; North China supply is relatively stable, Hebei Xinhai Dafa Plant plans to switch to production of asphalt tomorrow, and the region mainly executes contracts and shipments, and traders purchase on demand (Longzhong). Currently, Shandong asphalt spot is 4200-4520, East China region is 4490-4680, and South China region is 4650-4750.

refined oil benchmark price: Shandong local refining 92# gasoline-21 to 8365 yuan/ton, 0# diesel+2 to 8630 yuan/ton.

[Trading Strategy]

Crude oil fluctuated at a high level, asphalt spot profit weakened compared with the previous period, the valuation was neutral and the cost side was supported. The demand side will gradually weaken as the peak season ends, and the supply side needs to decline accordingly in the future. The upward drive of the market is limited, but it also appears to be relatively resistant to declines during the decline of oil prices. Short-term BU12 contract price reference for wide range oscillation ideas for range 3900-4200. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

Crude oil

[Taiwan Review]

Crude oil settlement price: WTI2211 contract 89.11 rose 1.84 US dollars per barrel or 2.11%; Brent2212 contract 94.57 rose 2.12 US dollars per barrel or 2.29%. SC2212 fell 8.0 to 672 yuan per barrel, and rose 9.9 to 681.9 yuan per barrel in the night trading. Brent's first price spread of $0.16 to $1.75/barrel

[Important information]

In terms of supply and demand, the IEA's October report showed that global oil demand in 2022 is expected to be 99.6 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.9 million barrels per day from 2021. The annual consumption forecast was reduced by 100,000 barrels per day from the previous month's version, global consumption was reduced by 300,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter, and China's consumption in the third and fourth quarters was reduced by 400,000 barrels per day from the previous month's expectations. According to the IEA's expectations, the global crude oil accumulation rate in the third quarter of 2022 reached 1 million barrels per day, and the accumulation rate in the fourth quarter dropped to 500,000 barrels per day. Subsequently, the accumulation rate continued to slow down and will return to the destocking state after the second quarter of 20222. EIE weekly data shows that as of the week ending October 7, U.S. crude oil production fell by 100,000 barrels per day to 11.9 million barrels per day, with commercial inventory cumulatively cumulatively 9.88 million barrels and strategic inventory destocking 7.69 million barrels. Gasoline consumption fell by 1.19 million barrels per day month-on-month, falling below the five-year range, and distillate oil consumption increased by 260,000 barrels per day month-on-month, showing a relatively strong performance.

Macro, the US CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 8.2% year-on-year, exceeding expectations because rents hit the biggest increase since 1990 and food costs also rose, which strengthened expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates for the fourth consecutive month by 75 basis points. Core CPI jumped 6.6% year-on-year in September, the largest increase since August 1982. The ECB Management Committee believes that it should raise interest rates strongly at its next meeting (October 27).

[Trading Strategy]

Recently, there are expectations of a downward reduction in supply and demand in the fourth quarter and next year. Although it is relatively pessimistic about demand, in the state of downward adjustment of the supply and demand side, the accumulation of inventory in the future will continue to weaken, the neutrality of crude oil supply and demand side is relatively strong, the macro level is still under pressure, and the judgment that oil prices maintain high fluctuations, Brent's main operating range refers to US$90-105/barrel. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

Fuel oil

[Taiwan Review]

FU01 contract closed at night at 2702 points (-0.15%).

LU01 contract closed at 4772 points (+1.32%) in the night trading.

Singapore market, low-sulfur fuel oil swap monthly difference +2 to US$20.5/ton, high-sulfur monthly difference -0.75 to US$3.75/ton. The price difference between LU01 and the price difference between US$26/ton, and the price difference between FU01 and the price difference between US$17/ton.

[Important Information]

Longzhong Information reported that according to shipping tracking data, fuel oil arbitrage from the West to Asia in October hit the level of nearly 2.5 million tons, the same as in September, but still higher than the usual average monthly arrival volume of 2 million tons. However, seasonal demand in North Asia has rebounded, so the impact on the ultra-low sulfur fuel oil market is limited. More Russian fuel oil is expected to flow into the Asian market, and the recovery of the high-sulfur fuel oil market is still hindered.

[Trading Strategy]

Singapore's high sulfur continued to weaken in October, and the cracking spread has fallen to a historical low recently. In the short term, under the expectation of floating positions at high levels and supply and demand still weakened, high sulfur cracking rebounded. The valuation of fuel oil in the internal market is neutral, and the performance is weak among oil products, and the price difference between high and low sulfur is strong and fluctuates. (The above views are for reference only and will not be used as a basis for entering the market)

pulp

[Review of the previous day]

Futures Market : Weak operation. The main SP contract of 01 closed at 6730 points, down -22 points or -0.33%.

Spot wood pulp market: Northeast region Black Needle market can be sold in a scarce source of external sales, and the market continues to stabilize. The Black Needle market has a self-recharged quotation of 7,400 yuan/ton in tax-inclusive. The imported natural color conifer slurry market in South China is running smoothly, with downstream inquiries on demand, and operators follow the market. The market part of the tax-inclusive reference price: the quotation for Rainbow Fish is 7,000 yuan/ton. ( Zhuochuang Information )

Spot cultural paper: Hubei Baota Paper Industry Writing paper quotation is temporarily stable. Currently, the factory tax-inclusive reference price of mixed pulp and recycled writing paper is 5,300 yuan/ton. The coated paper market in Chengdu, Sichuan is average in the market, and the center of gravity is relatively stable. The current market price of dealers with tax-inclusive shipment: 157g Whale King Coated Paper 5800-5900 yuan/ton. (Zhuochuang Information)

[Important Information]

quoted China Paper Media: Japan is the world's second largest wood chip importer after China, accounting for about one-third of the world's total imports. In all industries in Japan, the paper industry relies heavily on wood, so Japanese pulp mills have long relied on imported wood fibers. Japan's imported timber reached its historical high in 2008, with nearly 15 million tons. After a long time, the average annual total transaction volume of imported timber remained at around 12 million tons. In 2020, due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, Japan's wood imports fell sharply. However, according to the Wood Resources Quarterly (WRQ) report, Japan's timber imports increased in 2021 and the first six months of 2022, and the total import volume in 2022 is expected to reach its highest level in three years, with Japanese pulp mills undoubtedly one of the main forces in timber imports.

[Trading Strategy]

As of the week ending October 4, the inventory of domestic white card paper factories closed at 792,000 tons, a year-on-year destocking of -1.4%, a decrease narrowing for the third consecutive week. In September, Japan's imported energy (oil, coal, natural gas) price index closed at 363.6 points, with the comprehensive energy price rising year-on-year by +120.2%, and the previous value was +111.7%, and the cost rebounded again. The main SP01 contract should be shorted at the right time, and it is advisable to set stop loss at the early high of 6850 points. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

natural rubber and No. 20 rubber

[Review of the previous day]

RU Related: RU main force 01 contract closed at 12785 points, down -30 points or -0.23%; Japan's main force 03 contract closed at 228.8 points, down -1.2 points or -0.52%. As of 12:00 on the day before yesterday, Yunnan WF closed at 11,850-12,000 yuan/ton, the second landmark closed at 10,700-10,750 yuan/ton, Thailand cigarette tablets closed at 14,150-14,400 yuan/ton, and Vietnam 3L closed at 11,800-11,900 yuan/ton.

NR related: NR main 12 contract closed at 9645 points, down -125 points or -1.28%; Singapore's main TF12 contract closed at 130.5 points, down -2.0 points or -1.51%. As of 18:00 the day before yesterday, the market price of USD rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell by 10-15 USD/ton. cigarette glue ship cargo closed at US$1550-1560/ton, Thai standard spot or near-port cargo closed at US$1365-1375/ton, Horse standard spot or near-port cargo closed at US$1355-1365/ton, Thai mixed spot or near-port cargo closed at US$1365-1375/ton.

synthetic gel related: North China Butan 1502 quoted 11600-11650 yuan/ton. Sinopec's North China Qilu Shunding price was 12,600 yuan/ton. The price of East China butadiene is 7600-7700 yuan/ton.

[Important News]

quoted LMC Automotive comment: In the past two and a half years, the global light vehicle market has experienced one major setback after another, and it is still difficult to obtain any real growth momentum today. Although global light vehicle sales have recovered in seasonally adjusted annualized sales in recent months, this is mainly due to the rapid increase in sales of in the Chinese market, which is achieved under the implementation of the temporary reduction and exemption policy of for passenger car purchase tax. Supply bottlenecks are still the main reason for the recovery of sales in most light vehicle markets around the world. However, as European and North American markets approach winter, the economic outlooks in the two places are becoming increasingly bleak under the difficult-to-solve high inflation problem, and potential new car demand will inevitably be weakened.

[Trading Strategy]

Domestic all-steel tire production line operating rate closed at 58.9%, and semi-steel closed at 64.4%, both of which increased from before the festival. Overall year-on-year production cut was -0.8%, with a narrowing decline. In September, Japan's imported energy (oil, coal, natural gas) price index closed at 363.6 points, up +120.2% year-on-year, and the previous value was +111.7%, making energy costs unspeakable decline. The RU01 contract should set a stop loss at the nearest low of 12930 points; the NR12 contract should be wait-and-see and pay attention to the support at the early high of 9560 points. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

Plastic

[Taiwan Review]

Plastic fell yesterday, L2301 closed at 7897 points, down 2.57% or 208 points, and L2301 closed at 7881 points, down 0.20% or 16 points.

[Spot Market]

Yesterday, the market price of LLDPE fell, and the North China region fell linearly by 50-150 yuan/ton; the East China region fell linearly by 50-150 yuan/ton; the South China region fell linearly by 50-100 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of domestic LLDPE is between 8300-8950 yuan/ton. Linear futures declined, petrochemical prices were partially lowered, merchants were seeking shipments for concessions, downstream mentality was cautious and poor, inquiry was light, and there were few transactions.

[Important Information]

PE start load this week was 86.43%, up 6.08 percentage points from the previous period.

This week, some PE downstream starts to rise and fall. The start of agricultural films has risen by 4 percentage points to 53%, the start of films has fallen by 1 percentage point to 51%, and the start of other industries has been temporarily stable. Currently, the mainstream start of construction in downstream industries is 45%-62%.

According to Zhuochuang Information, the proportion of PE maintenance fell by 2.6 percentage points to 4.1% yesterday.

Today, the inventory level of major manufacturers was 740,000 tons, an increase of 0.68% from the previous working day. The inventory was approximately 780,000 tons in the same period last year.

[Trading Strategy]

In terms of supply and demand, most of the existing maintenance devices have resumed production, and the PE maintenance ratio has dropped to a low level, but the production of new devices has been delayed. No new devices are expected to be put into production in October, and new devices in Guangdong Petrochemical and Hainan Refining and Chemical are expected to be put into production from November to December. Net imports have gradually rebounded, but the pressure in October is relatively small. In terms of demand, demand recovered significantly in September, and the peak season in October continued. The spread of the domestic epidemic is a negative news and short-term price pressure is under pressure. In the future, with the introduction of new production capacity and the concentration of imports to Hong Kong and foreign markets, supply and demand are expected to deteriorate significantly, and short sells at highs. Pay attention to oil prices and the impact of the epidemic. (The views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for trading).

methanol

[Trading Strategy]

cost, currently, the price of pit in Inner Mongolia is around 1150 yuan/ton, and the price of coal in Shaanxi is around 1235 yuan/ton, due to the northwest land The spot price of methanol in the district fell sharply due to weak demand. The loss of coal-to-methanol in Inner Mongolia expanded to more than 50 yuan/ton, and the loss of coal-to-methanol in northern Shaanxi was above 190 yuan/ton. The overall loss narrowed briefly and continued to expand. The operating rate was further suppressed. Market news said that Xin Lianxin had stopped due to cost problems. China New Zealand will stop after using up coal from raw materials. There are also multiple sets of devices expected to be stopped in the short term. Many coke oven gas devices in Linfen have also faced the risk of negative parking reduction due to environmental protection epidemics and other reasons. Loss-related suspensions have occurred again. According to Jiutai official website, the 2 million tons unit is successfully put into production at one time, and the load will be gradually increased in the later stage, and the overall supply will be stable. In terms of demand for

, traditional demand was greatly compressed by the rise in methanol, and the operating rate fell narrowly; MTO profit was also greatly compressed by the rise in methanol prices, and the losses expanded to more than 800 yuan/ton, Zhongyuan ethylene was stopped, and there were rumors of multiple domestic devices falling into the burden, etc., and overall demand continued to weaken. In terms of inventory, as the epidemic affects transportation, the inventory of mainland enterprises has accumulated significantly, while orders have dropped sharply; expectations of import reduction in port areas have gradually turned into reality, and the port-to-mainland price difference has not been opened for a long time. At the same time, downstream terminals are in urgent need, and inventory continues to be sold. The current overall inventory has been reduced to the lowest level in the same period of previous years, and the overall circulating resources of the port are tight.

Overall, as market sentiment continues to cool down, downstream MTO production suspension and negative area expands. In addition, opened after the holiday, and continued to fall after , suppressing market sentiment. Ports, Northwest and Shandong resonated and fell. This week, the bidding prices of mainstream manufacturers in the northwest region continued to drop, but the phenomenon of failing to sell is still serious. Downstream bidding in northern Shandong continued to lower prices, and the port basis weakened significantly, and methanol spot basically fell to the pre-holiday level. However, due to the high and strong prices of raw coal, multiple devices have been stopped due to problems such as cost, environmental protection, and epidemic. methanol continues to be weak in both supply and demand, and will still be treated with a volatile idea in the short term. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market).

[Futures Market]

Last night, futures opened low and fluctuated and strengthened, and finally closed at 2727 (-25/-0.91%).

[Spot Market]

production location, the southern line of Inner Mongolia is quoting 2450 yuan/ton, and the northern line of Inner Mongolia is quoting 2550 yuan/ton. The price of Guanzhong area is 2,800 yuan/ton, the price of northern Shaanxi area is 2,550 yuan/ton, the price of Shanxi area is 2,610 yuan/ton, and the price of Henan area is 2,740 yuan/ton.

consumption place, Shandong regional market price is 2,850 yuan/ton, Shandong quotation is 2,840 yuan/ton, and Hebei quotation is 2,800 yuan/ton.

southwest region , the market price in Sichuan and Chongqing is 2,800 yuan/ton, and the price in Yunnan and Guizhou is 2,680 yuan/ton.

port, the futures market fluctuated and fell, the market price of Taicang in the region was 2,820 yuan/ton, the market price of 2,900 yuan/ton in the region was 2,820 yuan/ton in the region.

[Important Information]

As of October 13, 2022, the capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 48.92%, down 7.43% from before the holiday.

urea

[Trading Strategy]

The overall national urea market continues the weak pattern of supply and demand. In terms of supply, after a rapid rise in raw coal, it has cooled down recently. Some coal types have begun to drop slightly, but they are still at high levels and have strong cost support. Smoke-free medium-block coal (CV6800 S0.5) in Jincheng area is 1970-2020 yuan/ton, and smoke-free bottom coal (CV5800 S0.5) is 1585-1635 yuan/ton. The current fixed bed production is basically near the break-even line. Some devices in Henan are temporarily suspended and maintenance are concentrated. There are many parking spaces in Shanxi due to environmental protection, which provides support for the manufacturer's mentality. The epidemic situation in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang has further spread, transportation has been severely hindered, and foreign transportation volume has dropped sharply, with overall daily output falling to around 144,000 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons from the same period last year, and the overall supply is tight. In terms of demand, the Northeast region has begun to prepare stocks one after another, but the procurement rhythm is relatively stable. The autumn fertilizers in Henan and Shandong are approaching the end, and the procurement is weak. Anhui and Jiangsu have demand for top fertilizers. Southern industrial enterprises have started one after another. The operating rate of the city's compound fertilizer plants has increased slightly, but the overall demand side has not changed much.

At present, urea continues to be weak in both supply and demand. The domestic epidemic is repeated and important meetings are about to be held. Environmental protection, safety supervision and other factors have a great impact. In the short term, it will still be treated with a narrow range and strong fluctuation. Pay attention to the Northwest epidemic and conferences. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market).

[Futures Market]

Yesterday, futures fell mainly and finally closed at 2424 (-74/-2.96%).

[Spot Market]

Spot market adjusted narrowly, Henan small and medium-sized particles were reported at 2470 yuan/ton, Shandong small and medium-sized particles were reported at 2440 yuan/ton, Hebei small and medium-sized particles were reported at 2540 yuan/ton, Shanxi small and medium-sized particles were reported at 2440 yuan/ton, Anhui small and medium-sized particles were reported at 2580 yuan/ton, Xinjiang small and medium-sized particles were reported at 2200 yuan/ton.

[Important Information]

As of October 13, 2022 (week 41), the sample inventory of China's urea ports was: 216,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons month-on-month, a decrease of 5.68%.

thermal coal

[Trading Strategy]

Supply side, the epidemic in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi has continued to spread recently, but the production of coal mines in the region is basically normal, and the price of pits is relatively stable. Currently, the price of pits in Inner Mongolia is around 1,150 yuan/ton, and the price of pits in Shanxi is around 1,300 yuan. Tons; the overall production and sales in Shaanxi are balanced, and some low-priced coal mines are following the rise, and the overall coal price is around 1,245 yuan/ton. This week, it is expected that the price of coal in the pits in the pits is mainly firm.

Demand side, power coal side, daily consumption of coastal power plants continues to decline. Judging from the number of ships and forecast ships in port anchorages, it is expected that the market coal procurement will weaken this week, but due to limited resources, the price will resist declines; on the non-electric side, the profit of chemical products has been greatly compressed with the sharp rise in coal prices. Inner Mongolia methanol has been put into production normally. Although the start of urea has declined, the procurement support is strong, and pit-mouthed coal and block coal are expected to operate smoothly. In terms of inventory, the Daqin Line has begun autumn maintenance, with the transportation volume from 1.3 million tons/day to 1 million tons/day, the port transfer has dropped to around 1.2 million tons, and the inventory has dropped to 20.35 million tons, but it is still at the same high level. However, in a breeze winter is approaching, and the market coal is still tight. It is expected that the port price will continue to be firm in operation. The current 5500K closing price is 1,565 yuan/ton. Power plant inventory, as daily consumption declines, power plant inventory continues to rebound, and the number of days available continues to increase. Under the long-term cooperation guaranteed supply, inventory is expected to continue to rise.

Overall, with the arrival of the off-season of electric coal demand, it is expected that the port supply pressure may be reduced. However, in the autumn maintenance of Daqin, the daily transportation volume decreased by 200,000-250,000 tons. Against the backdrop of the continuous decline in inventory, the market coal prices are mainly running firmly. Although the supply in Kengkou area is normal, it is mostly mainly focused on ensuring supply. At the same time, the epidemic in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi continues to spread, the market coal volume is tight, and the high price of chemical raw materials coal is difficult to find, which supports the firm rise in Kengkou price.An important conference is approaching, focusing on coal price policy regulation (the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market).

[Spot Market]

13, the market price of 5500 big cards was 1550-1600 yuan/ton, and some of them reached more than 1600 yuan/ton, the market price of 5000 big cards was 1360-1400 yuan/ton, and the 4500 big cards had a quotation of 1180 yuan/ton. In the production market, the price of 6,000 coal calories for non-electric enterprises in Shaanxi is 1380-1430 yuan/ton, and the price of 5,800 calories is 1340-1390 yuan/ton. The market price of 5500 big card in Inner Mongolia is 1120-1170 yuan/ton, the market price of 5000 big card is 960-1010 yuan/ton, and the market price of 4500 big card is 720-770 yuan/ton.

[Important Information]

National Energy Administration: In September, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 709.2 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 0.9% year-on-year. By industry, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 10.5 billion kWh, an increase of 4.1% year-on-year; the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 467.6 billion kWh, an increase of 3.3% year-on-year; the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 123.4 billion kWh, a decrease of 4.6% year-on-year; the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 107.7 billion kWh, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year.

PVC

[Taiwan Review]

PVC fell yesterday, V2301 closed at 6037 points, down 2.31% or 143 points, and night trading V2301 closed at 6033 points, down 0.07% or 4 points.

[Spot Market]

Yesterday's PVC spot market quotation mostly maintained the closing level of the previous day. The five mainstream prices of East China Calcium Co., Ltd. were concentrated in the range of 6400-6500, and the actual trading was negotiated; the ethylene method continued to stabilize. The price of PVC market in Guangzhou fell slightly, transactions were deserted, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average, and spot transaction reference was between 6440-6580 yuan/ton.

[Important Information]

1) Longzhong Information, preliminary estimates, this week, PVC manufacturers' inventory in stock increased by about 3% month-on-month, and pre-sale orders increased by about 6%. The final data is subject to Longzhong Data terminal or Longzhong Data Customization Release.

2) Longzhong Information, this week, the capacity utilization rate of PVC manufacturers decreased by 2.11% month-on-month at 75.46%, an increase of 6.85% year-on-year; among them, the calcium carbide method decreased by 1.69% month-on-month at 74.75%, an increase of 6.85% year-on-year, and the ethylene method decreased by 3.55% month-on-month at 77.94%, an increase of 5.62% year-on-year.

[Trading Strategy]

Currently, both PVC upstream inventory and social inventory are at the same level in history, and they are still facing significant high inventory problems. On the supply side, the PVC operating rate is currently at the intermediate level. The profits of chlor-alkali integration have been recovered in the near future. The probability of the upstream continuing to actively reduce production is not high. On the demand side, both PVC exports and PVC products exports have dropped significantly in August, and external demand is still not optimistic. In terms of domestic demand, real estate completion and sales margins have improved, but the expected height is limited, and weak PVC demand is difficult to change. At present, PVC is absolutely low, and Lancharcoal and calcium carbide are in losses and their valuations are not high. Affected by the epidemic, calcium carbide is tight, prices are rising, cost-side support is strengthening, and short-term prices are expected to fluctuate. (The views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for trading)

PTA

[Taiwan Review]

Yesterday, the main contract of PTA2301 futures closed at 5444 (-80/-1.45%) on the day, and the night trading closed at 5494 (+50/+0.92%) on the spot. The basis of the main port was 01+480, a slight rebound. The last MOPJ in November was negotiated at US$663-664/ton CFR; the PX valuation was US$1,063/ton CFR, up 1 US$1/ton month-on-month.

[Important Information]

1. The production and sales of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester silk continued to be weak yesterday, and the average estimated to be 30% to around 3:30 pm. The production and sales of straight-spinning polyester have improved slightly, with an average of 40%.

2.PTA operation rate was 76.7%, a week-on-month decrease of 0.3%, a week-on-month increase of 0.3% to 83.5%, a week-on-month start of comprehensive construction of Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province increased by 1% to 72%, a week-on-month start of comprehensive construction of comprehensive construction of looms increased by 6% to 74%, and a week-on-month start of comprehensive construction of printing and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province increased by 3% to 80% on the previous month.

[Trading Strategy]

11-December Shenghong Refining and William Petrochemical have a total of 3 million tons of PX new production capacity, but under the expectation of the 5 million tons of new equipment in the second phase of PTA Tongkun Jiatong and Weilian Chemical, the pressure on PX accumulation storage is not great.At present, the spot processing fee of PTA has been compressed to a low level around 250 yuan/ton. In terms of demand, some factories of polyester filament have additional production cuts, the initial production reduction devices of staple fiber have recovered, the overall load of bottles has increased, the total load of polyester has increased slightly on the week-on-month, and the orders for terminal winter fabrics have improved month-on-month. Polyester profits have improved recently, terminal benefits have been compressed, and the production plan for some new polyester production capacity has been postponed. TA remains tightly balanced in October, and TA's supply and demand are expected to move towards a loose situation from November to December. In the short term, TA price support is strong under the influence of destocking expectations and low processing costs, but in the absence of substantial demand improvement, the pressure above the TA price is relatively high, and the price trend may remain fluctuating. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market).

PP

[Taiwan Review]

PP fell yesterday, PP2301 closed at 7751 points, down 2.31% or 183 points, and PP2301 closed at 7715 points, down 0.46% or 36 points.

[Spot Market]

Yesterday, the PP market fell overall, and the market continued to fall. The mainstream of East China wire drawing was 8,100-8,200 yuan/ton.

[Important Information]

Domestic polypropylene equipment start load this week was 86.92%, an increase of 2.18 percentage points from the week before the festival and a decrease of 0.54 percentage points from the same period last year. This week, the domestic parking loss of polypropylene equipment was about 62,400 tons, a decrease of 16,300 tons from the week before the festival.

This week, the start of BOPP industry fell by 2 percentage points to 62%, and the start of construction of plastic and injection molding industries remained stable.

Today, the inventory level of major manufacturers was 740,000 tons, an increase of 0.68% from the previous working day. The inventory was approximately 780,000 tons in the same period last year.

[Trading Strategy]

In terms of supply and demand, most of the existing maintenance devices have resumed production, and the PP maintenance ratio has dropped to a low level, but the production of new devices has been delayed. No new devices are expected to be put into production in October, and new devices in Guangdong Petrochemical and Hainan Refining and Chemical are expected to be put into production from November to December. Net imports have gradually rebounded, but the pressure in October is relatively small. In terms of demand, demand recovered significantly in September, and the peak season in October continued. The spread of the domestic epidemic is a negative news and short-term price pressure is under pressure. In the future, with the arrival of a new round of selling pressure on new production capacity and the concentration of imports to Hong Kong and foreign markets, supply and demand are expected to deteriorate significantly and short selling will occur at highs. Pay attention to oil prices and the impact of the epidemic. (The views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for trading).

PF

[Traffic Review]

Yesterday, the main contract of PF2211 closed at 7272 (-62/-0.85%) on the day and closed at 7374 (+102/+1.4%) on the night market. In terms of spot, semi-gloss 1.4D direct spinning and polyester short negotiation center of Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 7750-8000 yuan/ton, the mainstream in Fujian is 8000-8050 yuan/ton, and the mainstream in Shandong and Hebei is 7900-8050 yuan/ton.

[Important Information]

Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester silk production and sales continued to be weak yesterday. By around 3:30 pm, the average estimated was 30%-40%. The production and sales of straight-spinning polyester have improved slightly, with an average of 40%.

[Trading Strategy]

With the improvement of processing fees, the short fiber starts to increase, the short fiber is tight in the early stage eased, downstream yarn mills maintain losses, the inventory of finished products has accumulated, the supply and demand of short fibers is weak, and the room for rising processing fees may be limited. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

MEG

[Traffic Review]

Yesterday, the main contract price of EG2301 futures fell, closing at 4076 (-65/-1.57%) on the day's trading session and closing at 4064 (-12/-0.29%) on the night trading session. In terms of spot, the spot basis of MEG was around 35-45 in the morning, and the futures basis of the 01 contract was around 5-10 yuan/ton in the next November.

[Important Information]

Fujian Gulei's 700,000 tons/year MEG device has been successfully restarted and discharged recently. The load is gradually increasing. It is expected that downstream factories can be supplied from the second half of this week. The 280,000 tons/year MEG device in the United States will be repaired this week as planned, and the maintenance time is expected to be around one month; Xinjiang Sanye's 600,000 tons/year synthesis gas MEG device has no restart plan for the nearest period, and the equipment maintenance progress is currently suspended and the recovery time is unknown; Taiwan's 720,000 tons/year MEG device of the No. 4 South Asia 4 was originally planned to restart in November, and the current restart plan is cancelled, and it is initially estimated that it will restart around the end of the year.

[Trading Strategy]

Recently, maintenance equipment such as Fujian Gulei, Shaanxi Yanchang, Xinjiang Tianying, Xinjiang Guanghui, etc. have been restarted one after another. The inventory of ethylene glycol ports during the festival was 100,000 tons, which was higher than expected. In terms of imports, Asia's cracking profits are poor, and some equipment in the United States and Saudi Arabia are expected to remain low in the later period. In terms of demand, the total load of polyester has increased slightly on the week-on-month, and the orders for terminal winter fabrics have improved month-on-month. Polyester profits have improved recently, terminal benefits have been compressed, and the production plan for some new polyester production capacity has been delayed. The valuation of ethylene glycol remains low, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

EB

[Taiwan Review]

Yesterday's EB2211 futures main contract closed at 8275 (-128/-1.52%) and closed at 8361 (+86/+1.04%) in the night. In terms of spot, the spot self-picking price of Jiangsu styrene was 8,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton month-on-month, and the average spot price of East China pure benzene was 7,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton month-on-month.

[Important Information]

According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of October 8, the total sample inventory of Jiangsu styrene ports was: 70,500 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period (20220926). The commodity inventory was 48,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from the previous period (20220926). The total sample inventory of Jiangsu pure benzene port: 59,200 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous inventory of 29,200 tons, an increase of 102.7% month-on-month.

[Trading Strategy]

Styrene non-integrated device profits have been lost again, Taixing styrene device has reduced its losses, and some devices have the intention to reduce production. In the fourth quarter, Lianyungang Petrochemical, Guangdong Petrochemical, Zibo Junchen, and Satellite Petrochemical had a total of 2.5 million tons of styrene new equipment, and the styrene supply pressure dropped. In terms of demand, although some downstream home appliances and other products are still in the traditional peak demand season after the holiday, due to the early overdraft of replenishment demand, the downstream replenishment rhythm is expected to slow down, and domestic demand in the terminal home appliance market is sluggish and exports are declining, and the weakness of real estate is difficult to change. The production of styrene equipment is greater than the downstream production force, and the supply and demand structure may turn into looseness, and the medium-term price still has downward pressure. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)