This week, the United States will release a number of indexes including the third-quarter GDP growth revision. With the strong performance of the non-farm employment population released in early November and the unemployment rate further falling to a seven-and-a-half-year low, the valuation of the third-quarter GDP growth in the United States, which was originally miserable at the end of October, is now expected to be raised!
html At the end of October, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that the third quarter GDP growth valuation was only 1.5% annually, far lower than the 3.9% growth rate in the second quarter. Affected by the sharp decline in corporate inventory investment, the data will decline so much. However, the second GDP growth forecast will be released on the 24th US time, and the outside world generally expects that the revision will be raised.Nomura Securities believes that inventory investment will be better than originally expected. The original official estimates that inventory investment will reduce the U.S. GDP by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, Nomura estimates that the adjusted impact will drop to 0.6 percentage points, and Bank of America (BoA) believes that the impact of inventory on GDP by about 0.8% in the third quarter. Overall, Nomura Securities estimates that its third-quarter GDP will adjust to annual growth of 2.4%, while Bank of America's adjusted valuation of its third-quarter GDP will increase by 2.1% year-on-year.
(Data source: US Department of Commerce, Chart: Technology News)
As early as November, a number of data released successively performed strongly, such as the non-farm employment population reached 271,000 in October and the unemployment rate further dropped to 5%, setting a new low in seven and a half years. Although core retail sales only grew by 0.2%, the core CPI index rose by 1.9% compared with the same period last year, which is quite close to the 2% interest rate hike target of the Federal Reserve. The US stock market was not affected by terrorist attacks in Europe last week. The Dow Jones Index rose by about 550 points in a single week; and the US manufacturing PMI and third-quarter GDP expected to be announced this week The annual growth rate and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices will also become important indicators for the Fed to decide whether to raise interest rates.
The US Federal Reserve Council recently released the minutes of the October meeting, revealing that the next meeting will be the "time for interest rates to return to normal levels". It was interpreted by the outside world and strongly hinted that it is likely to decide to raise interest rates in mid-December.
(First picture source: Flickr/Dave Center CC BY 2.0)
extended reading:
- Afraid of becoming a child who herds sheep? FED strongly suggests that interest rate hikes in December
- is coming? The United States' GDP increased by only 1.5% per year in the third quarter
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