stock index treasury bond
stock index futures
A shares main indexes closed up yesterday. The amplitude of the Shanghai Composite Index widened, fluctuated and rose in the early trading, fell back in the afternoon, and rose slightly in the late trading. The Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index rebounded and rose. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.69%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.7%. Among the four futures indexes, CSI 1000 and CSI 500 rebounded and rose, while CSI 1000 closed up more than 1% at the end of the trading session. The Shanghai Composite Index fell in the afternoon and closed slightly lower. The intention of incremental funds entering the market has declined recently, and the characteristics of stock game are obvious. The negative news at home and abroad dominates the market situation, among which geopolitical events, RMB exchange rate fluctuations, concerns about overseas liquidity tightening, and other factors have led to a cooling of market sentiment in going long. However, in the medium and long term, from the perspective of indicators of valuation of price-to-earnings ratio and risk premium, A-shares are still at historically low valuations and within the margin of safety. When the market experiences a stage of rapid risk release, the expectation of repair of macro indicators is expected to lead the bottom rebound of the index, and the market does not need to be overly pessimistic. Technically, the index has clear medium- and long-term value. Combined with the logic of low valuation and epidemic recovery, as well as the amplification of risks at home and abroad, the market subsequently tends to be balanced style, and it is recommended to intervene in the long IF short IM contract with light positions.
USD/onshore RMB
On Tuesday evening, the onshore RMB closed at 7.0176 against the USD, depreciating by 126 basis points from the previous trading day. On that day, the central price of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.9468, a decrease of 72 basis points. Due to the unexpectedly strong U.S. inflation data and employment market in August, the Federal Reserve may respond with a larger rate hike at this week's policy meeting to support the US dollar's rise; and from the perspective of the offshore and onshore RMB price difference, the pressure on the RMB depreciation remains. In order to cope with the inflation at a new high in more than 40 years, the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is still significantly faster than other major economies, which means that the US dollar will maintain an upward trend in the medium and long term. USD index is still strong at high pressure, and it is necessary to observe the duration; the Fed rate hike is imminent this week, and the yield of US bond continues to rise, and the strong US dollar still suppresses the RMB, and the RMB may fluctuate weakly in the short term. However, China's latest economic data is improving, and the RMB breaking through the "7" does not mean that the trend is out of control. We need to pay attention to the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation and changes at the foreign exchange policy level in the near future.
Treasury bond futures
Tuesday bond main contracts continued to rise, and bullish sentiment in the bond market was released, up about 0.16%, and DR007 fell slightly by 1.04 basis points to 1.66%, lower than the policy interest rate level. Both the 1-year and 5-year LPRs in September remain unchanged, in line with market expectations. In order to support the stabilization and recovery of real estate, it is expected that there will still be a possibility of a reduction in the subsequent LPR.
On Tuesday, the central bank continued to carry out 14-day reverse repurchase operations and increased the volume to 24 billion to cope with tax period disturbances, cross-season factors and the impact before the long holiday, and achieved a net injection of 24 billion yuan in the open market. DR001 rose slightly to 1.44%. At present, the capital market has tightened, but the overall liquidity is still relatively loose. From a technical perspective, the current 10-year Treasury bond yield is around 2.66%, and the expected yield is mainly fluctuating around 2.65%. In terms of operations, investors are advised to focus on light positions, and this week is likely to focus on narrow range fluctuations, and stay cautiously bullish or bearish.
USD index
As of Wednesday, the USD index rose 0.55% to 110.1986. The US dollar rose 0.37% against the yen to 143.7230, the euro fell 0.53% against the US dollar to 0.9973, and the pound fell 0.48% against the US dollar to 1.1380. Although the number of new home starts in the United States released on Tuesday was better than expected, the number of construction permits representing future inventory fell the largest since April 2020, once again reflecting that the property market is in a downturn due to the impact of high interest rates. On the same day, Germany also released the August PPI data. Germany's PPI scored the largest increase in history in August, and the rising energy prices were the key reason for the surge in this PPI. Energy prices rose by nearly 140% year-on-year in August. As the European economy locomotive, Germany, under the influence of inflation, has raised its expectations that the European Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates until 2023.On Thursday, the UK, Switzerland , and the Bank of Japan will all make monetary decisions, and the market generally believes that all central banks except Japan will raise interest rates, and the US dollar index may fluctuate slightly in the short term due to interest rate hikes in non-US countries. Today we focus on the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting.
- Agricultural products
Pig
Tuesday pigs run weakly. From the supply side, the national policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices is steadily progressing, and the state and local governments intensively invest pork reserves. It is expected that the country and various places will release a total of about 200,000 tons of pork reserves in September, and the breeding end will deliver the sentiment. From the demand side, the terminal has certain resistance to high-priced pork. In addition, the frequent outbreak of the epidemic has had an impact on dine-in consumption. white strips and are not selling well, so we need to pay attention to the upcoming National Day holiday to boost consumption. Overall, policy-steady policy and consumer demand generally lead to weak operation of live pigs. On the market, the pig 2301 contract opened low and closed low, falling below the 22,800 yuan/ton mark, closing down 3.03%. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator shows that the green kinetic energy column has expanded significantly. In terms of operation, it is recommended to temporarily treat it with a weak oscillation idea.
Peanuts
Tuesday peanuts run strongly. In terms of supply, new peanuts continue to be listed, and the market has strong expectations for peanut production reduction, farmers have a strong mentality to raise prices, and the prices of new peanuts are at a high level. In terms of demand, due to the high price of new peanuts and the rising price of peanut oil, the oil factory entered the market early to acquire Chenji peanuts to boost demand. However, the oil factory has sufficient peanut oil inventory, so the opening rate is still at a low level. It is expected that the National Day effect in the later period will stimulate the opening rate. Overall, supply and demand are tight, supporting the rise in peanut prices. On the market, the Peanuts 2301 contract fluctuated at a high level, closing up 0.24%. In terms of operation, it is recommended to continue holding long orders and take profit of 10,550 yuan/ton.
sugar
intercontinental futures exchange (ICE) raw sugar futures closed higher on Tuesday as short-term supply tight support. The most active trading ICE March raw sugar futures contract closed up 0.43 cents or 2.50%, with a settlement price of 17.80 cents per pound. Domestic Sugar Market: Data released by of the General Administration of Customs showed that my country imported 680,000 tons of sugar in August, an increase of 400,000 tons month-on-month and an increase of 180,000 tons year-on-year or 36%. The amount of imported sugar increased significantly in August, and short-term phased supply still put pressure on domestic sugar prices; as of the end of August, the total sales of sugar in the country were 7.88 million tons, and the national sales of sugar in August were 1.11 million tons in a single month, which was far higher than the same period in the past five years. Inventory in the sales area remained low, traders' replenishment demand increased, spot prices rebounded, and sugar factories' production costs increased, and they had a strong willingness to support prices, supporting the sugar market. In terms of operation, it is recommended that Zhengtang 2301 contract sell high and buy low in the short term in the range of 5480-5650 yuan/ton.
Cotton
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures closed down on Tuesday, falling for the third consecutive day. The sell-off caused by concerns about the slowdown in the global economy and also impacted the popularity of the cotton market, coupled with the strengthening of the US dollar. The most active ICE, December cotton futures, fell 2.71 cents or 2.80%, and settled at 93.33 cents per pound. From the domestic market, the new season of cotton harvest is about to start, and the two parties have a clear game between the new season of cotton collection and sale. Next week, Xinjiang's machine-picked cotton will be gradually harvested, and new cotton supplies are about to be launched. In addition, the commercial inventory of old cotton remains at a high level, and the market supply is still abundant. In terms of demand, autumn and winter orders are gradually emerging, the opening rate of yarn and grey fabrics of textile companies is gradually increasing, and the speed of destocking of finished products is accelerating. In addition, textile companies purchase raw material cotton at low prices, which will benefit cotton prices to a certain extent. Overall, downstream demand is boosted by the increase in orders in the fall and winter, but with the combined supply of Chenxin cotton, the inventory pressure is still relatively high. In addition, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is approaching, so it should not be too optimistic about the cotton market. In terms of operation, it is recommended that Zhengmian 2301 contract sell high and buy low in the short term in the range of 13,400-15,000 yuan/ton. The cotton yarn futures 2301 contract is mainly for the short-term wait-and-see.
Apple
Shaanxi production area has basically ended, and a small amount of residual goods are concentrated in Yan'an and other places; late-ripening Fuji picking greens are scheduled to be opened, and the price is more than 1 yuan/jin higher than the same period last year; Shandong production area early-ripening Red General transactions have entered the final settlement, the quality has declined, the number of purchasers has increased, and the price is relatively stable.Apples in the warehouse: The price of cold storage apples has fallen, and the remaining supply is mainly large fruits. Pay attention to the stocking situation during the National Day holiday. In terms of operations, the short-term Apple 2301 contract is in the range of 8200-8700 yuan/ton and sells high and buys low.
Red dates
According to Mysteel agricultural product survey data statistics, as of September 15, 2022, the physical inventory of 36 red date sample points was 7025 tons, a decrease of 178 tons from the previous week, a month-on-month decrease of 2.47%. In the early stage of the week, the new season of walnuts was concentrated, and the arrival of red dates and walnuts in the Hebei market increased significantly, and the large-level supply of goods accounted for a large proportion, and the cost-effectiveness source was good. After the holiday, the market sales in various sales areas significantly weakened, the number of arrival markets decreased, and the trading atmosphere weakened. Some merchants mainly used to sell small profits in order to recover funds and sell small profits. In terms of operation, it is recommended to trade short-short contracts in Zheng Zao 2301.
corn
Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOTh) corn futures climbed to a one-week high on Tuesday. Thanks to the boost of the wheat market and the slower-than-expected harvesting progress, the overnight corn 2301 contract closed up 0.78%. The US Department of Agriculture reported a reduction in U.S. output and end-of-term inventory in 2022/23. At the same time, as of September 18, the US corn growth rate fell to 52%, lower than market expectations of 53%, and lower than 59% in the same period last year, at its lowest level in the past five years. Support US corn prices and boost the domestic market atmosphere. Domestic, the production areas have entered the stage of alternating new grains, and the supply is tight. The growth of corn in the fields is affected by adverse weather such as waterlogging and early frost. There are local expectations of production cuts. As the new grain market was postponed for 10-20 days, only early-mature new grains were listed sporadically. The higher opening price boosted market sentiment and supported futures prices. However, the epidemic has spread more and the demand for terminal stocking may be delayed. Feed companies are not very enthusiastic about restocking, and they still focus on small batch rolling procurement, which has limited driving effect on spot prices in the short term. At the same time, feed companies have been enthusiastic about purchasing brown rice recently. The transaction rate of the No. 15 aged rice auction is 62%. This week, another 200,000 tons of brown rice will be auctioned, of which 100,000 tons of Beigang and 100,000 tons of Nangang have been squeezed into a certain corn market share. From the market perspective, corn maintained a rebound trend, and long positions were held at 2780 as stop loss .
starch
overnight starch 2211 contract closed up -0.23%. Due to the shutdown of factory operations in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, and the production restrictions of some factories in Hebei, the starch starting rate remains at the lowest level, and the starch output pressure is smaller than the same period in previous years. As of September 14, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was 888,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from last week, a decrease of 1.00%, and a monthly decrease of 13.95%; an annual year-on-year increase of 26.57%. The inventory pressure has been greatly reduced, which has supported the starch price. At the same time, corn prices rebounded and cost support increased, which also benefited the starch market. However, after the holiday, the weak demand situation of starch sugar , papermaking, construction and other industries has not changed, and downstream dealers are still in use as they are adopted. Most factories mainly execute pre-contracts, and inventory is still backlogged. Overall, the situation of oversupply of starch has not changed. From the market perspective, starch futures prices have rebounded with corn recently, but due to poor demand, the trend is weaker than corn.
Eggs
In August 2022, the national number of laying hens on the laying market was 1.182 billion, a decrease of 1% month-on-month, which is basically consistent with market expectations. Before the National Day, the epidemic situation in some regions is still obvious, and the volume of centralized stocking for merchants and household stocking has also increased significantly, with the volume of stocks increasing, and the spot price remains high, which has some support for futures prices. At the same time, the cost of laying hen farming is still at the highest level in the same period, and the cost support is still there. However, the impact of hot weather has eased slightly. In the process of recovery of laying hens' egg laying rate, and the current egg price is relatively high. The sentiment of old chickens to delay the pavement is still strong, and the supply of eggs has increased slightly. At the same time, after the holiday, traders in supermarkets mainly digest inventory, and demand in the later period is expected to decline. Spot prices tend to decline seasonally, limiting the rebound height of futures prices. From the market perspective, egg futures prices have maintained a rebound, and there are still expectations of rising in the short term.
rapeseed meal
Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOT) soybean futures closed higher on Tuesday, helping China's import demand. The overnight rapeseed meal 2301 contract closed up -0.46%.The USDA expects global rapeseed production to reach a record 83.144 million tons, an increase of 9.278 million tons or 12.6% year-on-year, more than 10 million tons above the five-year average. Canada's rapeseed production is expected to reach 20 million tons, an increase of 6.243 million tons year-on-year. Rapeseed’s forward price is under pressure, which has some restraint on rapeseed meal. However, the US Department of Agriculture’s weekly crop growth report showed that the US soybean quality rate continued to decline to 55%, lower than market expectations of 56%, and lower than 58% in the same period last year, supporting US soybean prices and boosting the meal market. Domestic, rapeseed imports continue to be low, rapeseed meal output is limited, and it is still the peak season for aquaculture. The rigid demand for rapeseed meal is still there, which supports the price of rapeseed meal. In terms of soybean meal, the import volume of soybeans to the port in the third quarter was lower than the same period in previous years, and the output level was limited. Recently, the downstream pick-up speed has accelerated, and soybean meal inventory has dropped rapidly, supporting the market price of meals. From the market perspective, rapeseed meal has fallen at a high level, and pay attention to the gap that replenishes .
Rapeseed Oil
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Rapeseed Futures rose and fell on Tuesday, and the market was facing pressure to increase seeds and harvest. The overnight rapeseed oil 2301 contract closed up 0.45%. The USDA expects global rapeseed production to reach a record 83.144 million tons, an increase of 9.278 million tons or 12.6% year-on-year, more than 10 million tons above the five-year average. Canada's rapeseed production is expected to reach 20 million tons, an increase of 6.243 million tons year-on-year. At the same time, Indonesian inventory still needs to be continued to be sold, and the expectation of accumulating horse-brown inventory remains, and concerns about a global recession are intensifying, which is not conducive to the oil and fat market. However, USDA report shows that US soybean production and yield are both lower than expected, and the US soybean yield continues to decline, which supports the oil and fat market. In the domestic market, the import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil continues to maintain the lowest level, the supply pressure of rapeseed oil is limited, and the overall inventory of the three major oils and fats is still at the lowest level in the same period, supporting the domestic oil market prices. However, the rebound in the Hong Kong volume of imported palm oil and has improved the overall tight oil and fat inventory, while the domestic epidemic has risen and demand has been suppressed. Oil and fat consumption performance during the Mid-Autumn Festival is lower than expected, and the market expects that demand on the National Day will remain weak. From the market perspective, under macro pressure and expectations of increasing supply, the trend of rapeseed oil futures prices is still weak.
beans 1
overnight beans rose by 0.56%. From the fundamentals point of view, soybean crops in the main production areas of Northeast China are close to maturity, and sporadic new beans are listed one after another. Traders' enthusiasm for purchasing is temporarily rising. The price of Northeast China new beans opened higher and is boosting the mentality of subsequent concentrated listings. However, due to the general weather in the main production areas in the near future, domestic new beans are expected to achieve the expected output target. In the latest September report of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, it is expected that China's soybean production will reach 19.48 million tons in 2022, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year, facing seasonal supply pressure. From the demand side, the current domestic epidemic situation is still severe. Even during the peak sales season, the overall demand for soybeans in the bean market is average; domestic reserves at all levels are still auctioning soybeans frequently. Previously, all two-way bidding transactions failed to sell and . The market demand for old beans is less, and the momentum of soybeans chasing upwards has weakened. From the market perspective, the price of beans continued to close overnight, and the MACD red column has an expansion trend. It is expected that the beans will maintain a strong volatility in the short term, paying attention to the quality of new works and the progress of listing.
bean 2
overnight bean 2 rose 1.12%, the good rate of US soybeans is lower than expected, private exporters export large amounts of US soybeans to China, and the sharp increase in the inspection volume of US soybeans exports have supported the rise in US soybean prices. However, negative factors such as the increased expectations of Fed interest rate hikes and good weather help US soybeans to complete growth and early harvesting limit US soybeans’ upward space. From the market perspective, Douyin was supported by the 20 moving average in the night, and confirmed that it would continue to rise, but the holding volume dropped significantly, and there may be long profits leaving the market. It is expected to follow the US soybeans in the short term, and pay attention to the 20 moving average support level.
soybean meal
on Tuesday, US soybean meal rose 1.03%, US soybean meal rose 1.91%, overnight soybean meal rose 0.27%, USDA's increase in export inspection data and the new work's better rate is lower than expected, boosting US soybean prices.However, as the Fed's expectation of a rate hike has increased, good weather will help US soybeans to complete growth and harvest early, and other negative factors remain, limiting the upward space of US soybeans. At the same time, Brazilian 2022/2023 soybean seeding is about to begin, and many analytical agencies, including CONAB, predict that Brazil's soybean production may reach a record 150 million tons or even higher this year. The central bank of Argentina announced on Tuesday that it would tighten foreign exchange access policies for growers who enjoy special exchange rate . This move may once again curb the willingness of Argentina farmers to sell soybeans. The decline in sales has weakened its competitiveness with US soybeans and supported the prices of US soybeans. From the fundamentals of soybean meal, according to a sample survey of 50 feed companies in major regions across the country, as of the week of September 16, 2022 (week 37), the number of soybean meal inventory days (physical inventory days) of domestic feed companies was 9.86 days, a decrease of 0.7 days from the previous week, a decrease of 7.14%. China's customs data shows that China imported 7.16 million tons of soybeans in August, the lowest level in the same period since 2015. The recent arrival of soybeans has decreased, and the probability of oil mills opening has decreased compared with last week. At the same time, the country is about to usher in the National Day. The profit of breeding has better increased tolerance for the rise in feed prices. The enthusiasm for picking up goods in downstream is high, soybean meal inventory is expected to continue to decline, and oil mills have increased their motivation to support meals. From the market perspective, supported by moving average, soybean meal maintained a rise in the night trading, but the MACD index red column has a significant narrowing trend, indicating that the market's long volume has weakened. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate at high levels.
Soybean oil
On Tuesday, US soybean oil rose 1.03%, US soybean oil rose 0.98%, overnight soybean oil rose 0.64%, USDA's increase in export inspection data and the new work's excellent rate is lower than expected, which boosted US soybean prices. However, as the Fed's expectation of a rate hike has increased, good weather will help US soybeans to complete growth and harvest early, and other negative factors remain, limiting the upward space of US soybeans. At the same time, Brazil's soybean seeding in 2022/2023 is about to begin. Many analysts, including CONAB, predict that Brazil's soybean production this year may reach a record 150 million tons or even higher; however, the Argentine central bank announced on Tuesday that it would tighten the foreign exchange access policy for growers who enjoy special exchange rates. This move may once again curb the willingness of Argentine farmers to sell soybeans. The decline in sales has weakened its competitiveness with US soybeans and supported the prices of US soybeans. From the perspective of soybean oil fundamentals, according to the monitoring data of China Grain and Oil Business Network , as of the 38th week of 2022, domestic oil plants' soybean oil inventory was 827,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons from last week, setting a new high of more than one month. The amount of soybean crushing before the holiday may decline slightly. In addition, the import volume of soybeans in September and October is limited, soybean oil inventories are expected to remain low. In terms of demand, domestic epidemic prevention and control is relatively tight. Given that the consumption of oil and fats in the Mid-Autumn Festival is lower than expected, the demand for stocking on National Day is average, and the spot price of soybean meal is strong, the oil factory is not strong enough. In addition, the increase in palm oil arrivals will improve the overall domestic oil and fat inventory and suppress the rebound in soybean oil prices. From the market perspective, the strengthening of US soybeans has led to a rebound in the night market of soybean oil, but against the backdrop of sufficient external oil supply and a sluggish macroeconomic situation, it is expected that soybean oil will still run weakly with fluctuations.
Palm Oil
Overnight horse palm rose 0.08%, while overnight palm oil fell 0.03%. The latest data released by SPPOMA shows that from September 1 to 15, 2022, the output of Malaysian palm oil increased by 7.5%. India's demand for palm oil continues to rebound due to the arrival of Diwali next month. According to data released by ITS, the shipping survey agency, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 30.6% month-on-month from September 1 to 20. The game between the expectation of rising palm oil production and the strong demand in the external market has intensified, and the horse market may fluctuate frequently. From the perspective of domestic fundamentals, as the early purchase of ships arrives at the port one after another, Indonesia continues to accelerate the destocking speed, and the domestic palm oil inventory tight pattern may ease. On September 14, edible palm oil stocks in coastal areas were 230,000 tons (plus 310,000 tons of industrial palm oil), a decrease of 10,000 tons compared with the same period last week, an increase of 40,000 tons month-on-month and 80,000 tons year-on-year. Among them, Tianjin has 40,000 tons, Jiangsu Zhangjiagang has 60,000 tons, and Guangdong has 80,000 tons. On the demand side, domestic epidemic prevention and control is tight. Given that the Mid-Autumn Festival oil consumption is lower than expected, the market expects that the National Day stocking demand will perform weakly.From the market perspective, due to the rise in US soybeans and other oils, palm oil only fell slightly at night. Pay attention to the 7500 mark below. The market is worried about the fermentation of sentiment and the supply side tends to be loose and other negative factors putting pressure on the price. It is expected that palm oil will still run weakly. It is recommended to sell short when it is high.
- Chemicals
LLDPE
Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of domestic polyethylene enterprises was 81.5%, an increase of 0.51% from the previous week. Polyethylene production was 495,700 tons, up 12,800 tons from last week. The capacity utilization rate of downstream industries in PE is +0.31% compared with last week. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of agricultural film, pipe, hollow, and packaging film has increased, while the capacity utilization rate of injection molding has declined, while the capacity utilization rate of wire drawing is the same as last week. This week, downstream demand is expected to continue to rebound due to holiday factors such as National Day. Sample inventory of polyethylene production enterprises: 422,700 tons, up 21,400 tons from the previous period, an increase of 5.33%. As the National Day holiday approaches this week, it is expected that downstream enterprises will have certain inventory reserve demand, and the inventory of polyethylene production enterprises may still decline. The night trading L2301 contract rebounded slightly, and in terms of form, the short side has the advantage. In terms of operation, investors can set up short orders in their hands and hold them with caution.
PP
Last week, the capacity utilization rate of polypropylene decreased by 0.12% month-on-month to 76.96%. The domestic polypropylene production was 555,300 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last week, an increase of 0.73%. Compared with the same period last year, an increase of 0.09%. The operating rates of seven downstream domestic polypropylene industries generally rose slightly by 0.76%, 3.64% lower than the same period last year. Among them, except for the operating rate of pipe companies that remained the same as last week, the operating rate of other industries has increased. Polypropylene stocks: 764,900 tons, up 34,300 tons from the previous week, an increase of 4.69%. The night trading PP2301 contract rebounded slightly, and in terms of form, the short side has the advantage. In terms of operation, investors can set up short orders in their hands and hold them with caution.
PVC
Last week, PVC production enterprises started construction increased by 4.01% month-on-month at 77.49%, and 6.86% year-on-year; among them, calcium carbide method increased by 1.85% at 77.72%, and 4.60% year-on-year; ethylene method increased by 11.53% at 76.69%, and 13.96% year-on-year. PVC production was 429,400 tons, an increase of 5.39% month-on-month and 11.30% year-on-year. At present, companies that produce raw materials are still in losses. The start-up of PVC products enterprises has recovered, and the enterprises mainly maintain medium load. The performance in hard products is still weak, the soft products industry starts stable, the orders of plate companies are average, and the subsequent orders of profile companies are insufficient. As of September 18, the domestic PVC social inventory was 372,000 tons, an increase of 4.20% month-on-month and an increase of 112.69% year-on-year; the demand for Asian PVC market is weak, and Form-plastic lowered its October shipment quotation, and domestic calcium carbide and Lanchar prices have fallen, all of which suppress the price of PVC. The night trading V2301 contract fell slightly. In terms of pattern, the short side still has a slight advantage. In terms of operation, investors can set up short orders in their hands and hold them with caution.
EB
Last week, the operating rate of domestic styrene factories was 71.6% weekly, up 0.08%. The overall output of China's styrene plants was 262,900 tons, up 00,300 tons from the previous week, an increase of 0.11%. Northeast region has slightly lowered the load of equipment, and Shandong and South China have slightly increased the load of equipment. The demand in the three major downstream styrene industries is basically stable. Among them, the ABS operating rate has increased, inventory has decreased, indicating a rebound in demand, while the EPS industry operating rate has decreased, inventory has increased, indicating a decrease in demand. The operating rate and inventory in the PS industry both rebounded, indicating that demand is basically stable. The inventory of China's styrene factory was 150,382 tons, an increase of 18,212 tons over the previous period, an increase of 15.11% month-on-month. According to the data, except for , North China , factory inventory in other regions has increased to varying degrees, especially the increase in East China is the most obvious. Currently, styrene inventory is still at a low level in previous years. The night market EB2210 contract fluctuated and fell. Today, we pay attention to the support strength of the 8960 line. In terms of operation, investors can set up long orders in their hands and hold them with caution.
Natural rubber
Now, the overall rainfall in the main production areas of Southeast Asia has decreased slightly, the impact on rubber cutting work has weakened, and the output tends to increase. Qingdao natural rubber inventory has dropped slightly, the market mentality has improved slightly, and short-term inventory has a possibility of a slight decline. In terms of demand, the operating rate of tire factories decreased month-on-month last week. Some enterprises arranged 3-5 days of maintenance, and some enterprises had 7-10 days of maintenance. The overall output of enterprises was restricted, and the start of construction decreased significantly. High inventory will continue to suppress the opening level of tire factories. The ru2301 contract closed slightly lower in the night trading, and the futures price broke the previous resistance. It is recommended to trade in the range of 12850-13300 in the short term.
Methanol
Recently, domestic methanol maintenance and production reduction devices have decreased, and at the same time, some devices have resumed construction one after another, and the overall capacity utilization rate has increased. In terms of ports, typhoon affects the unloading and navigation speed of some cargoes in East China ports, while no cargo arrives in South China ports. The pickup in mainstream areas remains normal, and the volume of some cargoes has increased. The overall performance of destocking was destocked last week. In the downstream, production of several pre-maintenance equipment resumed last week, and the overall capacity utilization rate of methanol-made olefin increased significantly month-on-month. There are still devices restarted this week. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will increase again, and the demand side will boost methanol prices. The MA2301 contract closed slightly lower in the night trading, and short-term focuses on support around 2640 and is recommended to trade in the range of 2640-2700.
urea
Most companies that parked in the early stage have resumed production one after another, and urea production has increased. According to the recovery time of parking companies and the parking time of planned maintenance companies, production is expected to decrease slightly this week. Although the recent price increase has improved shipments of urea companies, the flow of urea has different levels, and some areas have caused temporary storage accumulation due to the epidemic. Recently, the domestic bidding policy has fermented, and the number of Hong Kong-sharing companies has gradually increased. However, under the uncertain policy, domestic Hong Kong has mainly adjusted its narrow range. In terms of demand, with the promotion of the autumn market, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has steadily rebounded. It is expected that with the arrival of the concentrated period of goods delivery, the supply of goods will accelerate, and the operating rate will continue to increase. The rubber plate industry has not improved, and the inventory of finished products has accumulated, and the overall procurement volume has decreased compared with the same period last year. India's bidding, downstorm and cost have all boosted the market, but the downstream has also become cautious in fear of heights due to the recent rapid rise in urea prices. The short-term recommendation for UR2301 contract is to trade within the range of 2390-2450.
soda ash
Due to the recovery of the early parking device, the overall operating rate of domestic soda ash has increased, and maintenance companies have ended one after another. It is expected that the focus of the short-term operating rate will still tend to rise. Recently, orders for soda ash companies have been put into service have dropped slightly, and some regions have been affected by the epidemic, and their overall inventory has increased. The downstream demand is relatively stable, and the inventory of raw materials is not high. Some companies have procurement or have purchase intentions in the near future, but the downstream operating conditions have not improved significantly. The procurement of raw materials is still in a cautious stage. The SA2301 contract closed slightly lower in the night trading, and it is recommended to trade in the range of 2280-2310 in the short term.
glass
recently has water-released and renovated production lines, and the operating rate and daily melting volume of float glass have both decreased. This week, there is still a production line with a clear plan for water release and cooling repair. The ignition time of the production line planned to ignite in the early stage was delayed, and the supply surface is expected to continue to decline. As the downstream stocking is basically completed in the early stage, the procurement pace has slowed down, and the inventory of float glass companies increased last week. At present, downstream processing companies hold a certain inventory of raw sheets, which may be mainly digested in the early stage of raw material orders, and the inventory pressure of floating glass companies is still relatively obvious. The night trading FG2301 contract increased its position and closed down. It is recommended to trade in the range of 1470-1510 in the short term.
Crude oil
International crude oil futures price fluctuated and fell, Brent crude oil 11 futures contract settlement price was US$90.62 per barrel, a drop of 1.5%; US WTI crude oil November futures contract was US$83.94 per barrel, a drop of 1.7%. The Federal Reserve held a monetary policy meeting, which is expected to raise interest rates by at least 75 basis points, market risk aversion sentiment heats up, and the US dollar index rises to a 20-year high. EU imposes oil sanctions on Russia, G7 will set an upper limit for Russian oil prices. OPEC+ meeting decided to cut production by 100,000 barrels per day in October. Argus data said that the OPEC+ production gap expanded to a record 3.58 million barrels per day, and supply concerns supported the oil market; API US crude oil and refined oil inventories showed an increase, and the expectation of a sharp interest rate hike in the European and American central banks has caused the market to worry about the economy and slow down; supply risks and demand slowdown continue to play, and short-term crude oil futures prices showed wide fluctuations. Technically, the SC2211 contract tests regional support of 620, and the 10-day moving average pressure is tested above. The short-term Shanghai crude oil futures price shows a wide fluctuation trend. In terms of operation, it is recommended to focus on short-term trading.
Fuel oil
Federal held a monetary policy meeting, and is expected to raise interest rates by at least 75 basis points. The market risk aversion sentiment has heated up, supply risks and demand slowdowns continue to play, and international crude oil futures prices fluctuate and fall back; Singapore's fuel oil market has risen and fallen, and the price difference between low-sulfur and high-sulfur fuel oil has risen to US$278.58/ton. The price difference between the LU2301 contract and the FU2301 contract was 1,679 yuan/ton, an increase of 56 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; international crude oil fluctuated wider, the price difference between low and high sulfur futures widened, and fuel oil futures prices showed fluctuations and consolidation. In terms of the top 20 positions, the short positions of FU2301 contract decreased, and the net short positions fell. Technically, the FU2301 contract tests regional support of 2700, and it is recommended to focus on short-term trading. The LU2212 contract tests the 4300 regional support, and the 40-day moving average pressure is tested above, and the short-term trend shows a wide range of fluctuations. In terms of operations, short-term trading is the main focus.
Asphalt
The Federal Reserve held a monetary policy meeting, and it is expected to raise interest rates by at least 75 basis points. The market risk aversion sentiment has heated up, supply risks and demand slowdowns continue to play, and international crude oil futures prices fluctuate and fall back; major domestic asphalt manufacturers have started construction, and the inventories of manufacturers have increased; refineries in East China and Shandong have started construction, and some low-priced resources are still acceptable, and spot prices are mainly stable. International crude oil fluctuated wide, asphalt resource supply increased, and short-term asphalt futures prices fluctuated. In terms of the top 20 positions, the short order reduction of BU2212 contract was greater than that of long orders, and net long orders rebounded. Technically, the futures price of the BU2212 contract tests the regional support of 3600, and the 10-day moving average pressure is tested above, showing a wide fluctuation trend in the short term. In terms of operations, short-term trading is the main focus.
LPG
The Federal Reserve held a monetary policy meeting, and it is expected to raise interest rates by at least 75 basis points. The market risk aversion sentiment is heating up, supply risks and demand slowdowns continue to compete, and international crude oil futures prices fluctuate and fall. The price of liquefied gas in South China is mainly stable, and the main refineries and terminals are stable in price shipments, and the market purchase and sales atmosphere is flat; international crude oil fluctuates wide, and the conversion expectations of combustion demand during the peak and peak seasons support the market, and the rebound in inventory of refineries and ports has exacerbated futures prices; the price of domestic gas in South China remains flat, and the discount of spot in South China is about 85 yuan/ton compared with the spot in South China, and about 35 yuan/ton compared with Ningbo. The increase in short orders of LPG2211 contract is greater than that of long orders, and the increase in short orders. Technically, the PG2211 contract tests the regional support of 5300, and the pressure of 5600 above is tested. The short-term liquefied gas futures price shows a wide fluctuation trend. In terms of operation, short-term trading is the main focus.
PTA
overnight PTA fluctuated and closed higher. In terms of cost, the current PTA processing difference has risen to around 1,085 yuan/ton, and processing profits have increased. In terms of supply, the overall starting load of domestic PTA devices has been stable at 69.72%. In terms of demand, the start-up load of the polyester industry is stable at 84.02%. The decline in international crude oil prices in the short term weakens PTA cost support, and it is expected that the upward space for short-term futures prices will be limited. Technically, below the TA2301 contract, pay attention to the support near 5300, and above the pressure near 5850, and recommend range trading.
Ethylene glycol
Ethylene glycol fluctuated and closed higher overnight. In terms of supply, the current load on ethylene glycol has increased by 0.50% to 44.95% compared with the previous trading day; as of September 19, the total inventory of MEG ports in the main ports in East China was 852,400 tons, down 30,200 tons from the previous statistical cycle, and the inventory of major ports continued to be sold. In terms of demand, the start-up load of the polyester industry is stable at 84.02%. The decline in international crude oil prices in the short term weakens the cost support of ethylene glycol, and it is expected that the upward space for short-term futures prices will be limited. Technically, above the EG2301 contract, pay attention to the pressure around 4650, below the support around 4200, and recommend range trading.
staple fiber
overnight staple fiber fluctuated and closed higher. In terms of cost, the processing fee for short fibers has increased to around 813 yuan/ton, and processing profits have increased. In terms of demand, the production and sales of staple fibers rose 17.37% to 38.55% compared with the previous trading day, and the production and sales atmosphere rebounded. The decline in international crude oil prices in the short term weakens the cost support of short fibers, and it is expected that the upward space for short-term futures prices will be limited. Technically, below the PF2211 contract, pay attention to the support near 7150, and above the pressure near 7600, and recommend range trading.
pulp
overnight pulp fluctuated downward, and futures prices closed down. In terms of supply, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports last week was 1.77 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.7%, and major ports were converted to destocking; the recent poor shipping situation continues, and import supply is expected to shrink. In terms of demand, terminal demand continues to run weakly, and the production load of paper companies has not changed much during the week, and paper mills have gradually resumed production; under the constraints of high costs, the downstream has limited purchasing enthusiasm. Pay attention to the pressure around 7200 above the SP2301 contract, pay attention to the support around 6650 below, and recommend range trading.
- Colored black
thermal coal
thermal coal market is temporarily running steadily. Shanxi has conducted safety inspections and there is an expectation of a reduction in coal supply. The production and sales of the main production areas are good, the number of vehicles transported in mining areas has increased, and the enthusiasm of surrounding enterprises and platforms to transport transported is high. The port capacity is limited, and the coal transit link is affected. The port's transfer is greater than the transfer in volume, and the inventory has dropped significantly. Supported by the high cost of the port, traders are willing to support prices. Since the Daqin Line is about to be repaired, traders have a shipping mentality, but the downstream acceptance of high-priced coal is average. The temperature in the north is lowering. In order to welcome the upcoming heating season, the demand for winter coal storage in downstream power plants has been released, and non-power enterprises have started construction to increase, which also supports some procurement demand. In terms of imports, due to rainfall in some areas, the production and transportation of coal in India have been affected, and the demand for imported coal in coastal power plants still exists, and the price of imported coal continues to rise. Operation suggestions: wait and see.
Manganese silicon
Manganese silicon spot price is temporarily stable. The manganese ore market has a strong sentiment, and the cost of manganese silicon has risen. Steel Investors gradually ended in September, and the procurement volume of some steel mills increased. Recently, steel Investors have led to a better demand for manganese silicon. According to Mysteel information, the start of manganese silicon has increased significantly last week, the production capacity utilization rate of manufacturers has increased, and the supply of manganese silicon has increased, but Ningxia manufacturers are less enthusiastic about resuming production and are cautious and wait-and-see in the future market. Affected by the National Day holiday, some steel mills began to recruit steel in October, and traders were not proactive in purchasing. Although steel mills currently have obvious destocking of finished materials, their terminal consumption is average, their profit rate is low, their profit margin is small, and their supply growth rate may be higher than expected. Overall, the supply and demand pattern has not changed much, so we need to pay attention to the subsequent profits of steel mills. Technically, the SM2301 contract fluctuates widely, the one-hour BOLL indicator shows that the opening has a narrowing trend, the K-line tests the upper track, and the strength of both bulls and bears is balanced. In terms of operation, it is recommended to treat short-term oscillation with the idea of range oscillation and pay attention to risk control.
Fetrosilicon
Fetrosilicon spot price is temporarily stable. In terms of cost, silica, orchid and electricity prices remain stable. According to Mysteel information, many ferrosilicon manufacturers in Ningxia have begun to resume production. The ferrosilicon operating rate rose by 2.99% last week. As the production of downstream steel continues to rise, consumption of ferrosilicon for furnace materials increases in the short term, manufacturers' production enthusiasm increases and they are willing to support prices. However, due to the low profit rate of steel mills, the production of finished materials has declined recently, and the profit margin of steel mills is small. The stimulus of demand from infrastructure in the early stage has gradually faded, and the rise in finished materials prices is under pressure, and expectations for peak season are expected to be fulfilled. Technically, the SF2211 contract opened high and closed low, the one-hour BOLL indicator showed a flat opening, and the K-line was under the multi-day moving average, and it is expected to consolidate in the short term. In terms of operation, you can try to short at highs and pay attention to risk control.
coking coal
overnight JM2301 contract surged and fell, and the coking coal market was stable and strong. Shanxi has carried out safety inspections, and the near-twenty major, security inspections have become stricter in the later period, and production may even be suspended. Some coal mines have moved and reversed, and there is an expectation of tightening coking coal supply, and the miners are willing to support prices. There is a demand for replenishment of warehouses before National Day, and with the repair of profits of tons of coke, coking companies conduct rigid procurement of coking coal.Supported by raw materials, coke prices are relatively strong, the game between coke steel intensifies, downstream finished materials prices fluctuate, and the market has uncertainty about the Fed's interest rate hike. Steel mills have low profit rates. Although there will be no significant reduction in production in the short term, there will be certain pressure on raw materials. In terms of imports, the proportion of weathered coal has increased, squeezing part of the import volume of coking coal. Technically, the JM2301 contract rose and fell overnight, and the one-hour BOLL indicator showed that the K-line tested the middle track, the opening narrowed, and it is expected to consolidate in the short term. In terms of operation, it is recommended to treat it with the idea of range oscillation, refer to 1960-2080 yuan/ton, and stop loss of 20 points each.
Coke
overnight J2301 contract surged and fell, and the coke market was stable and strong. There is an expectation of tightening supply of raw materials coking coal, online auction situations have improved, some coal types have been raised, and high costs have supported coke prices. Coke companies have smooth shipments and their enthusiasm for starting work has increased. In the downstream, the output of finished materials will continue to rise in the short term, and there is a need for replenishing the warehouse for coke, but steel mills have accumulated warehouses, steel prices have declined, and steel mills have further narrowed their profit margins. Be cautious in purchasing raw materials and pay attention to the fulfillment of peak season expectations. If demand cannot digest the supply growth rate, it will bring great negative feedback to coke. Technically, the J2301 contract surged and fell over the night, and the one-hour MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA intersected downward, and the red kinetic energy column turned into a green kinetic energy column. In terms of operation, it is recommended to take a light position and short position and pay attention to risk control.
Shanghai copper
overnight Shanghai copper 2210 fell slightly. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue aggressive interest rate hikes, the US dollar index performs strongly, and the trend of currency liquidity shrinking; however, China's major economic indicators perform better than expected, which has led to a better market sentiment. Fundamentals, upstream copper ore import supply has increased, copper ore processing fees have increased, and power shortage has eased, which is conducive to the recovery of refinery production, but the increase in crude copper tightness may lead to lower production than expected. The peak consumption season is approaching that downstream demand is improving, but copper prices are rising and the premium is high, which makes downstream procurement cautious. Domestic inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, and supply is tight. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate and adjust in the near future. Technically, there are signs of convergence in the triangle oscillation of the Shanghai Copper 2210 contract, and pay attention to the 10-day moving average support. In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate light positions in the range of 61700-63000, with a stop loss of 400 each.
Shanghai Nickel
overnight Shanghai Nickel 2210 rose slightly. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue aggressive interest rate hikes, the US dollar index performs strongly, and the trend of currency liquidity shrinking; however, China's major economic indicators perform better than expected, which has led to a better market sentiment. In fundamentals, the supply of nickel ore in the Philippines is at a seasonal high, the import price of nickel ore has fallen, and the supply of raw materials has gradually improved. However, the recent domestic high temperature power shortage in summer has led to a decrease in the operating rate of refined nickel refineries, resulting in a decrease in refined nickel production month-on-month, lower than expected. Downstream stainless steel demand has improved, steel mill output growth is expected; and the new energy market is strong. Inventories in nickel market have continued to decline recently, spot premiums have risen, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Technically, the NI2210 contract focuses on the 10-day moving average support and tests the resistance of the 200,000 mark. In terms of operation, it is recommended to go long whenever the callback is pulled.
Shanghai Tin
overnight Shanghai Tin 2210 opened high and rose up. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue aggressive interest rate hikes, the US dollar index performs strongly, and the trend of currency liquidity shrinking; however, China's major economic indicators perform better than expected, which has led to a better market sentiment. In fundamentals, the import of upstream tin ore has declined, but the import price of tin ore has dropped significantly, and the supply of raw materials has improved; smelters have gradually resumed production, and Indonesia's fine tin exports have increased. The demand for downstream electronics industry is weak, and consumption performance is difficult to be optimistic; while the export demand for tin plates maintains a good performance. At present, downstream purchases on demand on low prices, domestic tin inventory has declined again, but the import window has opened, overseas inflows have increased, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Technically, the main 2210 contract of Shanghai Tin focuses on the support of 173,000, and the range is fluctuating. In terms of operation, it is recommended to sell at a high range and buy at a low range.
stainless steel
overnight stainless steel 2210 rose slightly. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue aggressive interest rate hikes, the US dollar index performs strongly, and the trend of currency liquidity shrinking; however, China's major economic indicators perform better than expected, which has led to a better market sentiment.The poor profits of nickel and iron are maintained at a low level, while the price of nickel and iron is weak and stable; domestic stainless steel plants have cut production due to poor profits, and the production cut rate is higher than expected; and Zhejiang has encountered a typhoon, and transportation and logistics may be affected. The price of stainless steel stopped falling and rebounded, which led to the enthusiasm of downstream procurement. Early wait-and-see orders were implemented one after another, and stainless steel inventory fell for four consecutive weeks. It is expected that the price of stainless steel fluctuates and adjusts in the short term. Technically, the SS2210 contract focuses on 10-day moving average support. In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate a light position in the range.
Shanghai aluminum
Macro, the Federal Reserve is about to raise interest rates, the US dollar index is running at a high level, and the market is more cautious before the interest rate hike is implemented. On the supply side, European natural gas futures prices hit a recent low, which has alleviated the market's concerns about the continued large-scale reduction and suspension of overseas electrolytic aluminum. There is no news of further reduction and suspension of production in Yunnan electrolytic aluminum plants in Yunnan. Currently, production is still 10%. In terms of demand, the weekly operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises rose slightly by 0.4 percentage points month-on-month last week, and the performance in the peak consumption season did not show. Yesterday, the overall downstream trading was average, and spot demand was limited. In terms of inventory, it has recently been slightly removed from the inventory at home and abroad. Overall, the recent focus is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate agenda meeting. If the rate hike results meet the market expectations by 75 basis points, macro sentiment will be alleviated in the short term, and Shanghai aluminum may further strengthen under the supply expectations gap. If the rate hike results exceed expectations, the market is worried that demand will be under pressure to the aluminum price, but the recession logic runs throughout the year, suppressing the upward height of short-term supply disturbances. The AL2210 contract fell by 0.80% in the night trading session. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being before the interest rate hike is implemented.
Shanghai zinc
On the macro level, the Federal Reserve is about to raise interest rates, and the US dollar index is running at a high level, and the market is more cautious before the interest rate hike is implemented. On the supply side, due to the strong internal and weak external factors, the import profit of zinc concentrate increased, the number of zinc concentrates arrived in Hong Kong increased, and the pressure on the mine was slightly alleviated; European natural gas futures prices hit a recent low but are still at a high level, and the cost pressure on overseas zinc smelters may be at a loss. With the slightly reduced supply pressure on the mine and the refinery resumed production, domestic refined zinc production may increase slightly. In terms of demand, the galvanizing operating rate improved last week, and the expectation of a recovery in demand continued. In terms of inventory, zinc inventories at home and abroad remained at a low level, and the trend of destocking at home and abroad has been maintained in the near future. Overall, recent destocking and rising demand expectations have boosted zinc prices, but the upcoming interest rate hike meeting has made zinc prices uncertain. On the market, zinc prices have maintained wide fluctuations recently. The night trading zn2210 contract fell by 0.12%. It is recommended that the Shanghai zinc zn2210 contract be wait-and-see before the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is implemented.
Shanghai lead
Last week, Mysteel data lead concentrate port inventory decreased on a month-on-month basis, the tight supply at the mine end has not changed, the downward trend of sulfuric acid and by-products has caused the smelter to raise processing fees to ensure production; the power limit has ended and maintenance has resumed production, and the native lead refinery maintained stable production, and yesterday's transactions have weakened; the price of waste batteries weakened, and the loss range of recycled lead smelting has narrowed, and there may be new maintenance companies this week, and regional supply may tighten, and yesterday's purchasing intention was not high; the consumption of lead-acid batteries has not declined significantly, and the replacement demand is greater than the supporting demand; the policy support of automobile production and sales data continues to improve. On the market, the Fed's interest rate hike day is approaching, and the recent Shanghai lead futures price may be greatly affected by the macro side. The night trading pb2210 contract rose by 0.37%. In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai Lead PB2210 contract be mainly wait-and-see before the interest rate hike is implemented.
precious metals
night market precious metals futures prices fluctuated and closed down, and silver fell even more. The Fed interest rate meeting is coming, and the US dollar remains strongly fluctuating. At the same time, gold ETF positions have fallen to the low level since January 20. Gold's attractiveness to allocated funds has declined, coupled with the strong yields of US dollar and US Treasury, under pressure on precious metal futures prices. In terms of operation, it is recommended to trade in short-term, pay attention to operating rhythm and risk control.
Iron ore
overnight I2301 contract fluctuated weakly, and the spot quotation for imported iron ore was lowered. The total shipment volume of Australian and Pakistan iron ore and the arrival volume in this period both rebounded, which will increase spot supply. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting is approaching, and commodity prices are generally under pressure. At present, the steel mills are still maintaining low inventory operations and maintaining a small number of procurement frequency multiple times. The steel mills' spot inventory replenishment has not yet been fully opened, which suppresses the mineral prices.Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the I2301 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusted downward. In terms of operation, short-term oscillation and short trading should be paid attention to risk control.
rebar
overnight RB2301 contract was sorted out narrowly, and the spot market quotation was lowered. As the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution approaches, market sentiment is significantly affected, and rebar futures prices are weakly consolidated. For the production side, the current profits of steel mills are hovering near the production cost line, and they are not willing to actively increase production; on the demand side, as the weather improves and the epidemic is effectively controlled, downstream demand is expected to be further released. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the RB2301 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 axis. In terms of operation, it is recommended to trade in the short term during the day and pay attention to risk control.
Hot coil
overnight HC2301 contract opened high and closed low, and the spot market quotation was lowered. With the arrival of the global "super central bank week", expectations of currency contraction suppresses commodity prices. The current demand for hot coil terminals has never been significantly released, and the market speculative procurement is insufficient, and the peak season demand increase is also cautious. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of HC2301 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 axis. In terms of operation, it is recommended to maintain volatile and short trading, and pay attention to risk control
(the above information is reproduced from Ruida Research Institute).
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