International spot gold expanded its growth on Friday (December 16), now at 1,131.64 yuan/ounce, up 0.30% per day; spot silver expanded its growth, now at 16.11 USD/ounce, up 0.88% per day; USD index expanded its decline, now at 103.01, down 0.14% per day.
The Russian Foreign Trade Bank (VTB Capital) said in a report yesterday that the bank expects gold prices to be $1,290 per ounce in 2017, and raises its long-term gold price estimate from $1,300 to $1,350 per ounce. "Global gold production is entering a years-long downward cycle, which will eventually trigger new gold buying," the bank analyst Dmitry Glushakov and Nikanor Khalin wrote in the report. At the same time, they also said that the current dollar is rising too much and the correction and decline in the dollar is expected to support the gold price.
Commerzbank said in the report that gold prices are still expected to face downward pressure and prices may fall to around $1,100 per ounce before stabilizing. The Federal Reserve raised its target range for federal funds rates to 0.50-0.75%, and hinted that it will accelerate interest rate hikes next year, as the incoming Trump administration promised to boost economic growth through tax cuts, increased infrastructure spending and relaxation of regulation.
Just after the Federal Reserve announced the rate hike, Xinhua News Agency released six comment articles in a row on the 15th, clearly stating that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike triggered significant adjustments to the global financial market. As the world's largest economy, and its main issuing country, the world's largest economy, and reserve currencies, the United States should fully pay attention to the possible spillover effects of its monetary policy decisions and coordinate with other major economies on macro policies.
article quotes official statistics, pointing out that the US economy accounts for about 22% of the global GDP, and the US dollar is used in 60-80% of international payments. Under the current economic size and dominance of the US dollar, the United States has benefited greatly from other regions around the world. Therefore, as the old Chinese saying goes, "Water water should be thought about the source." The article said that the Fed's interest rate hike will inevitably trigger a new round of financial turmoil, causing the situation of some countries to worsen, especially emerging markets, which rely too much on external financing to be unable to repay their debts. The article said that it is doubtful whether the US economy itself has the ability to support the pace of interest rate hikes predicted by the Federal Reserve. Although different countries have different interest rates, if the United States accelerates the pace of interest rate hikes in the future, further strengthening of the US dollar will disrupt the global market.
The world's largest gold ETF - SPDRGOLDTRUST's holdings decreased by 7.11 tons compared with the previous day, and the current holdings are 842.33 tons. Gold Trust data on December 16 showed that iShares Gold Trust held 196.35 tons of gold on December 15, the same as the previous trading day; iShares Silver Trust held 10534.54 tons, a decrease of 73.74 tons from the previous trading day.
Gold Technical Analysis:
International Spot Gold began to fluctuate upward on Friday (December 16). We initially saw the completion of the bottom head and shoulders bottom pattern, breaking through the neckline, and paying attention to the support performance of the retracement of the neckline. To get support when you step back on the neckline, you can go long for . The target is to look at the two lines 1139 and 1144. If you break the neckline again, wait and see for a while.
Gold operation suggestions:
Overhead resistance: 1139, 1144, 1165, 1180
Underlying support: 1132, 1130-1120
Silver Technical Analysis:
International Spot Silver began to fluctuate slightly on Friday (December 16). Yesterday, silver finally came to the most ideal long position, which is the range of US$15.95-15.75/ounce. It is best if we can stabilize in this range. If we continue to break below $15.75 per ounce, we will no longer continue to buy at the bottom and keep waiting and watching. Focus on the stabilization of this range.
Silver operation suggestions:
upper resistance: 16.16, 16.55, 16.86-16.92
lower support: 15.95-15.75
Today's important data:
21:30 The total number of new houses started in the United States in November (10,000 households)
21:30 The total number of construction permits in the United States in November (10,000 households)
21:30 The total number of construction permits in the United States in November (10,000 households)
Note: There are risks in entering the market with , and investment should be cautious. The above suggestions are for reference only and are not the only basis for investment.
Jinsheng Precious Metals Investment Analysis Department
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