While global economy slows down, international crude oil demand is facing downward pressure. In order to deal with oil price risks, on October 5, the "OPEC+" ministerial meeting agreed to reduce the total oil output by on average daily from November this year. was affected by the news, the price of Brent crude oil and WIT crude oil both rose.
latest data shows that the Brent crude oil futures price was US$98.463 per barrel, the increase in for the week exceeded 15%, while the WIT crude oil futures price was US$93.211 per barrel, an increase of 16.95% for the week. Professionals said that the decline in oil prices caused by weak demand in the second half of may turn around in the fourth quarter of this year.
message shows that "OPEC +" 's production cut measures are the largest production cut since the new crown epidemic. In Goldman Sachs' latest report, analysts raised their Brent crude oil futures price expectations from $100 a barrel to $110 a barrel. Goldman Sachs estimates that if the production cuts of continue until next year's 12html, the price of breast oil may be higher.
. As the Russian oil ban approached in December, oil price expectations still have risks of fluctuation. Some crude oil analysts said that since the market's digestion of the Russian oil ban has not been completed, the production cut measures of "OPEC +" will have a superposition effect, and has caused the crude oil supply to suffer a double impact, which may cause oil prices to continue to be at a high level.
This is obviously not a good news for Biden , which is in the midterm elections. Earlier, in order to cope with the soaring international crude oil, the United States announced the release of 180 million barrels of strategic crude oil inventories. As of the week of September 30, the U.S. strategic crude oil reserves had fallen to their lowest level since the last century.
However, with the significant reduction in production of "OPEC+", the United States "planned" may "lose his wife and lose his troops". Some US media said bluntly that White House may now be "anti-angry and panic". In fact, the US officials may not only face a "in vain" situation, but they may also "emergency in the people's sentiment" in the midterm elections.
For the US authorities, under the "high fever and no regression" situation, the decline in gasoline prices is a good "prescription". Therefore, some institutions predict that when "OPEC+" touches this interest, the US authorities will provide further feedback on the production cut measures to break such an "embarrassing" situation.
However, some experts said that currently does not have many options to operate in the United States. If we insist on releasing strategic crude oil inventories in the long term, the United States' dominance in the international crude oil market may continue to decline, and "OPEC+" can benefit from it and gain more market control.
text | Zheng Hongjie Title | Huang Zixin Review | Zeng Yi
