The "nine-in-one" election in Taiwan at the end of the year has entered a critical sprint moment, especially the election situation in Taoyuan City is the most intense. Among the candidates are the Zhang Shanzheng of the Democratic Progressive Party, Zheng Yunpeng of the Taiwan People's Party, and the Zheng Baoqing who runs as an independent. Recently, Zhang Shanzheng also held a massive momentum event in the northern part of Taoyuan, with 20,000 people pouring into the scene. The Kuomintang Chairman Zhu Lilun , New Taipei Mayor Hou Youyi , and Taichung Mayor Lu Xiuyan all attended to help, with a rainbow of momentum. With the polls of several candidates in Taoyuan released one after another, although it is still unknown who will win, it is still the first time to see.
According to the latest poll on the island, among the four candidates for Taoyuan mayor, Zhang Shanzheng led the way with a 38% support rate, followed by Zheng Yunpeng with a support rate of 27%. Zheng Baoqing and Lai Xiangling's support rate combined accounted for only 11%, and the remaining 24% have not yet decided on the voting intention. Judging from the data, Zhang Shanzheng and Zheng Yunpeng's choice is in a stalemate, and even if Zhang Shanzheng is in the lead, he may not be able to rest assured. Because from the specific voter level, the voter group aged 20 to 29 has changed a lot.
Judging from the election situation in the past month, many young people in Taiwan have begun to waver. Among the people with unclear voting intentions, the proportion of young people has increased significantly, almost doubled, and the support rates that Zhang Shanzheng and Zheng Yunpeng have gained among young people have both declined. It can be predicted that at the moment when the voting approaches, both of them have to work hard on the young group to fight for this last piece of puzzle.
For the Kuomintang, Taoyuan's election situation not only concerns whether the so-called "Six Capitals" positions can be won by more than half, but also a mid-term test of the leadership of the Party Chairman Zhu Lilun. Zhu Lilun's decision-making style encountered constant criticism within the Kuomintang, which affected the pace of integrating electoral forces. As a candidate proposed by Zhu Lilun, Zhang Shanzheng's success or failure is a touchstone for Zhu Lilun's leadership.
In the poll analysis of Taoyuan, the DPP’s national representative Shen Fuxiong believes that “those who get neutral votes win the world” is roughly similar to Zhu Lilun’s “middle line” strategic framework. Zhu Lilun has been in office and has not offended all parties and has tried his best to win over middle voters. Does playing the "middle card" work? Can the basic foundation of the blue camp be expanded? How many points can you add to the election? The tone of the future route of Lanying is related to.
A blue camp private agent who is familiar with party affairs revealed that if the Kuomintang loses Taoyuan, no matter how much Taipei or other counties and cities win, no one will think that Zhu Lilun is "committed". If the Taoyuan election fails, the sound of "falling Zhu" will inevitably rise again. At that time, there are many mountains within the party, and they should be more inclined to "bet" New Taipei Mayor Hou Youyi to look forward to 2024. To put it bluntly, the reason why Taoyuan's election was fierce was that for Zhu Lilun, Taoyuan would be related to whether he could hold the position of chairman; for the Kuomintang, Taoyuan's weight directly affects the direction of the policy line.
Moreover, this "nine-in-one" election is different from the past. Due to the impact of the new crown epidemic and negative elections, the election battle on the island this year has been the coldest and dirtiest election in 30 years, with a huge impact.
on the island The new crown has not yet eased since the outbreak of control. The people are not willing to participate in large-scale events. Most of the activities of various political parties can only rely on public office or mobilization. It is difficult for challengers to win vote recognition through campaign activities, and in contrast, the "current advantage" is magnified. That is, for public offices at all levels running for re-election, as long as there is no major fault arousing public grievances, the chances of re-election will increase a lot.
So since you can't give yourself extra points, let the other party lose points. Probably starting from Lin Zhijian and Chen Shizhong, various controversies broke out in the island's election battle, which developed into an amplified review of the candidate's personality and morality, and there was almost no attention to political achievements and opinions. The support rate of candidates has fluctuated with the hype, and the public's attention has been deviated. If such an election situation continues to be worse, the final result may not be of quality.
