Content summary:
, Russia's GDP in the second quarter fell 4.1%, that is, the war lost 1.48 trillion GDP
, Moscow also lost an important stronghold that spent tens of thousands of soldiers' lives in Ukraine for two months. "Kharkov html l5
3. The Russian-Ukraine war will continue. Facing domestic economic recession, Moscow has started printing machine to pay military expenses
. Russia's GDP fell by 4.1% in the second quarter, that is, the war lost 1.48 trillion GDP
9. The Russian Businessman reported on September 9 that the Russian Federation's National Statistics Bureau has put it on the The GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2022 was adjusted, with the adjusted GDP totaling 34.66 trillion rubles , down 4.1% year-on-year. This is 40 billion rubles less than the GDP estimate released by the Russian Bureau of Statistics for the first time in August, and the decline also widened by 0.1 percentage point.
The Russian Bureau of Statistics said in its GDP adjustment announcement issued on September 9: "According to current prices, Russia's GDP in the second quarter of 2022 reached 34.66 trillion rubles. Compared with the second quarter of 2021, comparable GDP decreased by 4.1%, and increased by 0.6% compared with the first quarter of 2022. Compared with the second quarter of 2021, the second quarter of 2022 The deflating index of GDP is 117.0%.
The Russian Bureau of Statistics disclosed in its report that the reason for the decline in GDP is the decline in added value in some industries. The most serious decline is that wholesale and retail trade fell by 14.1% year-on-year, water supply and waste treatment fell by 9.2%, manufacturing fell by 4%, and hotel and catering industries fell by 3.5%.
Exploring the GDP from the second quarter of GDP in the second quarter of the year how much impact will the war have on Russia?
. In the second quarter of this year, GDP lost 1.48 trillion yuan compared with the second quarter of last year;
, wholesale and trade fell by 14.1% year-on-year. Russia's residents' consumption expenditure in 2021 was about 22 trillion rubles, which shows that Russia's domestic consumption shrank by 3.1 trillion rubles in the second quarter!
3. In GDP accounting data, the Russian Bureau of Statistics also disclosed that Russia's domestic tax revenue in the second quarter fell by 20.2% year-on-year. This confirms the so-called "the more sanctions are, the richer it is, the more you fight, the richer it becomes", which is purely a lie. Russia will face a serious fiscal crisis in the second half of the year, and the military expenditure black hole.
2. Moscow also lost the lives of tens of thousands of soldiers who spent tens of thousands of lives. , "Kharkov" that occupied 7 months in Ukraine
html September 10 is China's traditional festival - Mid-Autumn Festival. The emperor's brave and warlike army and an invincible torrent of steel. On this day, the "kind" land will pay tens of thousands of Russian soldiers' lives and have occupied 7 months of northern Ukraine Kharkov, and is also the second largest city in Ukraine, bow to "give" to Ukraine's counterattack army. Letting Kharkov reunite with Ukraine on the Mid-Autumn Festival is of course inspiring for Ukraine. For Moscow, although losing Kharkov is equivalent to losing the military supply line of the northeastern line of Ukraine, the stolen territory will always be returned. .
9 10 The Moscow Times disclosed in this news that the Russian army quickly lost positions under the fierce attack of the Ukrainian armed forces, and the counterattack was fully launched in September.
Following the breakthrough of Kremlin , forcing Kremlin to postpone the annexation referendum for the third time and evacuate command and political leadership from the city, the front line was also lost in the Krkov area, which is only tens of kilometers away from the Russian border.
html On the morning of 19 10, Yevgeny, a military reporter from the All-Russian State Television Broadcasting Corporation, was also lost. Poddubny said on his telegram channel that the Ukrainian army occupied the western part of Kupiansk in Kharkov, where there was a large railway hub station, which was the Russian military supplies transportation center and storage hub for the Ukrainian army. There were at least 10,000 Russian soldiers there, and the situation was very difficult. The bridge leading there was damaged, the movement of heavy equipment was paralyzed, and reinforcements could not be sent to rescue the trapped soldiers in time."
htmlOn September 9, Ukrainian President Zelensky has announced in a video clip played on social networks that "the Ukrainian armed forces liberated and controlled more than 30 towns in the Kharkiv region. About one thousand square kilometers of territory were recovered in the northeastern Ukraine."
htmlOn September 10, US Secretary of State Blinken said in Brussels that Russia's deployment of military reinforcements showed that it had paid a "heavy price".
3. The Russian-Ukraine war will continue. Facing the domestic economic recession, Moscow has started printing money to pay military expenses?
9 On September 10, Russian President Vladimir Putin encountered his army's biggest failure since the retreat of Kiev . But he still insisted on his view that he made a speech at the plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum on September 7: Russia did not and would not lose anything because of its special military operations against Ukraine. Faced with the major military failures and soldiers in Kharkov, he did not think it was a loss. He said: The soldiers who died in special military operations "fighted for the peaceful life of Donbas" and "sacrificed their lives for Russia."
From this point of view, he does not intend to end the war. However, in the face of strong economic sanctions from Europe and the United States and the huge military expenditures, the Russian Ministry of Finance also stated that "a good cook cannot cook without rice." But this cannot defeat the Emperor.
According to financial data released by the Russian Central Bank , at the end of June 2022, the currency M2 in circulation in the Russian Federation reached a record growth of 16.8%. Compared with 16.6% at the end of June, it increased by 0.2 percentage points in one month, about 140 billion rubles.
Russia's GDP in 2021 was 111.51 trillion rubles, an increase of 4.6%; by the end of 2021, the total value of rubles M2 was 66.25 trillion, an increase of 11.2%. M2 growth rate is 6.6 percentage points higher than GDP. In the first half of 2022, Russia's GDP fell by 0.4% year-on-year, of which 4.1% fell in the second quarter. However, M2 grew by 16.8%, 17.2 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate, 2.6 times the difference between M2 and GDP growth rate in 2021.
The ruble's printing speed in the first half of the year was 11.4% higher than the growth rate of RMB M2 and the growth rate of US dollar M2 by 5.9%. Although the printing speed is half higher than the RMB and 185% faster than the US dollar, the GDP growth rate is 0.4% year-on-year, the RMB GDP increased by 2.5% year-on-year, and the US dollar GDP1 increased by 3.2% year-on-year.
Feder 3 started interest rate hikes shrinking the dollar. The absolute volume of US dollar M2 actually decreased month-on-month from January, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% in June, and a year-on-year decrease in December.
The growth rate of RMB M2 is higher than GDP because of the sluggish domestic demand. With the multi-point epidemic prevention and control, it is necessary to use monetary easing policies to expand investment and consumption in order to drive economic growth, although the pulling effect is not good.
The Russian Central Bank started the money printing machine, resulting in the rapid growth of the ruble M2. What is the intention? With the increasingly serious economic shrinkage, the money supply of the ruble should be shrinking. But war has changed the economic principles and monetary policy under normal circumstances. In the economic recession, the fiscal revenue of decreased, but the military expenditure has increased significantly, and the Kremlin has only two options at this moment: one is to end the war and restore the economy; the other is to continue the war and print money to pay the military expenditure.
[Author: Xu Sanlang]
