overnight, spot gold fell sharply by $22.43, reaching a high of $1671.66 in the day and hitting a low of $1640.04, and finally closing at $1643.66. This week, gold fell by $50.95, and the gold market fell nearly $90 this week from its October high, as investors once again expect Fed to take very radical measures by the end of the year.
Prelude to the crisis
Friday a tiny data changed the global market trend - the initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the United States in October.
overnight, the initial value of the October consumer confidence index released by the University of Michigan was 59.8, the highest level since 4 in , higher than 58.6 in September and higher than economists' expectations of 59.0.
But that's not the key, analysts' focus is on - Americans' inflation expectations for in the next year and five years . Last time, people expected prices to rise by 4.6% in the next year, and then the market's expectations for "end point interest rate" also reached the 4.6% level afterwards. Look at the latest data - Americans' inflation expectations for the coming year rose to 5.1%, which is close to the current hype of 5% end rate .
This is another data the Fed does not want to see. CPI report represents the past, and this report represents the future. people's confidence in the Fed has declined. . After the data of
was released, the global market resumed the "USD rises, everything falls" model. If the US dollar continues to rise like this, it is likely to trigger a crisis, and the market increasingly feels that a certain financial crisis is coming.
It is also worth mentioning that the market has shown an expected hiatus of 11 hiatus rate hiatus , but the Fed can only raise interest rates 75 basis points. When the Fed finally convinces the market, it may be regarded as good news for a period of time.
At this moment, there was another scandal of senior officials illegally trading in the Federal Reserve .
On October 14th local time, Atlanta Fed Chairman Bestic issued a statement admitting that he had violated the information disclosure requirements for securities trading in the past five years since he was in office, that is, has conducted more than 150 transactions between during the restricted period and silent period , because he misunderstood the Federal Reserve's disclosure rules.
Previously, officials such as Fed Kaplan had resigned because of violating the Fed's trading policy restrictions. Vice Chairman Clarida, who resigned on time, was also considered to have a conflict of interest. Previously, Capitol Hill had put pressure on the Fed against conflicts of interest/ethical issues.
In addition, investors need to pay attention to the development of the international situation.
Ukraine's entire territory sounded the air defense alarm
First of all, the news came from the battlefield in Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine's entire territory sounded the air defense alarm . It is reported that the air defense alarm indicates that there is a danger of being attacked by the missile , and residents are advised to find cover. Over the past day, important infrastructure in central and western Ukraine has been damaged in the airstrikes. Russian troops have been attacking Ukraine's military, communications and energy systems since the beginning of this week. Missiles and drone attacks put Ukraine in a state of tension, and air strikes alarms frequently sounded.
The battlefield situation in Russia and Ukraine is in a stalemate, and Ukraine is eager to seek military assistance from NATO countries. On the 15th, the US Department of Defense said it would provide Ukrainian with another $725 million in military aid . Currently, the new package of assistance includes supplementary ‘Haimas’ rockets, long-range anti-tank mine-branch systems, etc. Previously, Germany's first IRIS-T missile air defense system delivered to Ukraine has been in service in southern Ukraine.
It is also worth mentioning that on the 14th local time, Russian President Putin said that has now completed the mobilization of more than 220,000 people in , and all mobilization measures will be completed within two weeks.
In addition, the British Chancellor was fired.
On the evening of the 14th local time, it was reported that British Chancellor Kwoten was dismissed after the release of the "mini budget" caused financial turmoil in and opposition from and Conservative MPs. This means that Kwoten is the second shortest-term British Treasury Secretary in on . At present, he has ended his meeting in the US capital Washington early and returned to London.
After the recent turmoil in the UK financial market, the global financial market will face more trouble . If global economic situation is more "normal", then the UK's problem may not be that serious.
In addition, " oil desertion " continues to spread in Europe . In recent weeks, oil giants Total Energy and ExxonMobil’s refinery in France have reduced oil refinery production by more than 60% due to workers’ strikes and unplanned maintenance, and the outward transportation of the oil depot has been blocked. This has caused gas stations in many places in France to fall into an "oil shortage" and pushed up oil prices in the European market. It is reported that more than a quarter of the gas stations in France have been in a hurry to , and panic buying has made the "oil shortage" that has lasted for several weeks worse.
How to move forward in the future?
Kitco Golden Weekly Survey Results show that Wall Street is currently extremely pessimistic about the gold price next week. Of the nine analysts surveyed, 478% (7 analysts) of html expected gold prices to fall next week, and only 22% (2 analysts) were optimistic. No one has expected consolidation of gold prices next week.
Ordinary investors are still optimistic about the gold trend next week, but more and more bearish people are. Kitco's gold survey shows that of 858 retail investors, 45% expect prices to rise, 35% believe prices will fall, and 20% hold flat expectations.
Chicago Mercantile ExchangeFederal Observation Tool shows that the reason why the US dollar remains near its 20-year high is that the market expects the probability of raising interest rates by another 75 basis points in November is 99.7%, and the probability of raising interest rates by another 50 basis points in December is 74%. There may be a series of smaller interest rate hikes in February and March next year.
As long as this macro environment exists, gold will have more downside space.
