Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center survey showed that , and market participants believe that gold prices are likely to rebound this week.
vote showed that 39% of readers were bullish on the price of gold this week, 21% were bullish on the oscillations, and 40% were bearish on the price of gold this week.
Lu Jun
Chengdu Fengye Service Co., Ltd.
On October 17th, the overall trend of international gold price showed a downward rebound. It reached a low of $1,617/ounce and then rebounded rapidly, reaching a high of around $1,668/ounce. It finally closed at $1,657/ounce, closing with an positive line . The weekly level formed a secondary downward rebound, reaching a minimum of US$1,614 per ounce in the previous period. From a structural perspective, international gold prices are still in a weak trend channel, but the K-line combination pattern shows signs of building double bottom .
Recently, the author has been emphasizing a topic, that is, when will international gold prices usher in a turning point? The premise is to see when the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will turn. Although the market generally expects the Fed to raise interest rates for the fourth consecutive time in November, a turnaround in interest rates may occur in December. As Fed internal officials said they would consider slowing down the hike. This news triggered positive feedback from the market, risky assets counterattacked quickly, and international gold prices rebounded rapidly. However, for now, the market still needs to continue to pay attention to the November Fed interest rate resolution to obtain more about future monetary policy trends.
will also usher in the ECB interest rate resolution this week. The market also generally expects the ECB to continue to maintain a 75 basis point interest rate hike, which may have a certain stimulus to the weak € to a certain extent. Especially after the US dollar surged and fell back to last week, the dollar index showed signs of forming a double top. Once the market determined the Fed's policy changes, it will further suppress the weakening of the US dollar index. Therefore, this will also have certain benefits for international gold prices.
From the daily level, the international gold price rose and fell in the morning of today, and is currently maintaining at US$1,650 per ounce. Today we need to pay attention to whether gold prices can maintain the rebound rhythm of rising, which will determine the strength of gold prices this week. Judging from the suspected double bottom structure, it is expected that gold prices will rebound and rise this week, with the upward pressure of US$1,680 per ounce. If the gold price draws back, continue to pay attention to the support effect of the $1,615/ounce platform.
Wu Di
Independent analyst
fundamentals In terms of fundamentals, gold has been regarded as a tool for to hedge inflation. Market volatility and geopolitical instability should enhance its attractiveness as a safe haven. However, the Federal Reserve and other central banks have raised tremendous interest rates, offsetting the boosting effect of high inflation on gold and exacerbating concerns about recession. San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley said the Fed needs to start discussing slowing down the pace of rapid rate hikes in the near future. According to the Fed Watch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, market participants believe the likelihood of another 75 basis points hike at the November meeting is 94.5%. Since the March interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve has raised federal funds rate futures by 300 basis points, one of the fastest rate hikes in history, including three consecutive rate hikes of 75 basis points.
Technically, on October 17, the international gold price once again bottomed out in the week of October 17 and rebounded. The strength of the day was still acceptable, but from the overall trend, the gold price is still in a downward channel. The long and short watershed this week adjusted to US$1,650/ounce. The gold price is currently hovering near this position, and the direction during the week is still unclear. Pay attention to whether the gold price can effectively stabilize at $1,650/ounce. If it can stabilize, the gold price may have further room for upward oscillation. The upper resistance is first focused on $1,682/ounce. If the gold price effectively breaks through this position, the resistance will adjust to $1,703/ounce. On the downward side, the first support this week is focused on $1,628/ounce. If it falls below this position, the bear target will be aimed at $1,596/ounce. In terms of operation strategy, the oscillation strategy is still the main focus. The strict trading of stop loss is . The above suggestions are all personal opinions and are for reference only.
Zhou Zhicheng
Guantong Futures Precious Metals Researcher
On October 21, there were no important economic data released in the United States, but gold and silver prices showed obvious signs of rebound, which is related to the Fed's expectation of interest rate hikes before the end of the year to decline and the US dollar index declined. The Fed hinted that it might consider narrowing the rate hike in December, and then the dovish Fed official and San Francisco Fed chairman Daley, who has the voting rights to the FOMC meeting in 2024, said the Fed should avoid putting the US economy in a downturn because the rate hike is too radical, and it is time to start talking about slowing down the rate hike.
Fed official Brad, known as the "Eagle King", also believes that when the federal funds rate reaches around 4.6%, the Fed should suspend interest rate hikes and evaluate the economy. However, he is more inclined to reach this level by the end of this year, raising interest rates twice in a row by 75 basis points, and then adjusting policies in 2023 based on inflation performance. The strong job market provides room for maneuver for the Fed to fight inflation.
The market is still expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in November, but after dovish speeches from Fed insiders, the market is currently expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in December from 70% to about 30%, and the possibility of 50 basis points in February from 50% to 30%. In addition, it is reported that compared with the $2.776 trillion deficit in 2021, the budget deficit in fiscal 2022 has dropped to $1.375 trillion. There are also reports that liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market has deteriorated to its worst level since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in the world. Gold and silver prices were stimulated by safe-haven demand and showed a significant rebound.
technical aspect, the weekly harvest belt of gold price is longer lower lead small positive line, gold price holds the key support of $1,600/ounce, and the US dollar index remains around 112. The upper resistance of gold prices is $1,680/ounce, $1,700/ounce, and $1,722/ounce. The support below the gold price is at $1614/ounce, $1600/ounce, $1550/ounce, $1500/ounce, and $1451/ounce. The continuous decline of gold prices has not ended.
is expected to oscillate more often this week between $1627/oz and $1682/oz. As the third-quarter GDP data was released this week, gold prices may fluctuate more unexpectedly. The silver price also closed positively last week, with the gold-silver ratio rebounding to 85.28 times. This week, the silver price is expected to oscillate a lot in the range of $18.55/oz to $19.95/oz. In terms of strategy, new silver positions can try to sell high and buy low in the range, and quickly enter and exit quickly.
Hongjie
Registered senior gold investment analyst
From the news perspective, some Federal Reserve officials released dovish remarks last week, triggering discussions on the slowdown in interest rate hikes. The US dollar surged and fell, and gold and silver broke through and rose. Focus on the ECB's announcement of interest rate resolution this Thursday and the ECB President Lagarde held a monetary policy press conference.
From a technical perspective, it finally closed with a small positive line with a shadow at the bottom last week. From the perspective of technical form, there is a short-term rebound demand. Pay attention to whether there is double bottom pattern . The focus below is on the regional support of US$1,580/ounce to US$1,610/ounce. If it breaks down, it may usher in a new round of decline in the short term. The above focus on the pressure around $1,700/ounce to $1,730/ounce. The overall idea this week is: mainly low-to-long.
Shen Guofu
Yongkun Holdings Investment Research Center precious metals analyst
Last week, the spot gold price continued to fall under the strong dollar pressure, and once fell to near the previous low. There was news over the weekend that some Fed officials expressed greater concerns about a sharp rate hike to combat inflation, suggesting that interest rate hikes in December will be a smaller rate hike, the US dollar index fell rapidly, and international gold prices also rebounded rapidly from lows. It is expected that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in will be implemented, and the market will basically anchor 75 basis points.
From the weekly K-line, gold prices have gained a low cross. Whether they can stabilize remains to be seen. It is expected to maintain oscillation and consolidation before the interest rate hike is implemented, with the range between $1,640/ounce and $1,670/ounce.
