Jinhuo Spot Network (https://xianhuo.cngold.org/) reported on August 31, the latest spot news: [What impact does the US core PCE price index have on spot gold and silver prices? 】Today at 20:30, in addition to the initial request data to be released, the US core PCE price index in July will also be released at the same time, and the market's attention to this economic data is higher than the initial request data. Why do investors pay attention to the US core PCE price index? What impact will the US core PCE price index have on the spot gold and silver price trends? ( recommended reading: "HTM2 spot trading on August 31 reminder: US initial request data/US July PCE price index annual rate》)
Today, when the Federal Reserve accelerates the pace of tightening monetary policy , the goal of whether the US inflation rate can reach 2% is the focus of market attention, and there are two main indicators to measure US inflation rate. One is our common CPI data, and the other is the PCE price index.
The US core PCE price index uses changes in personal consumption to measure inflation. Unlike CPI based on a basket of fixed commodities, it can measure US inflation more comprehensively and stably. Compared with CPI, the Federal Reserve pays more attention to PCE data.
In 2000, after a lot of arguments and research by the Federal Reserve, it began to abandon CPI forecasts and then gave inflation expectations based on the PCE price index. The Federal Reserve believes that PCE has three major advantages over CPI:
① The composition of expenditure in PCE is constantly adjusted, which is more consistent with actual consumption behavior; ② The weight of PCE is more comprehensive in representation of expenditure; ③ PCE data can be adjusted based on the latest information obtained, and the calculation technology has been improved.
The U.S. inflation rate has been weak for several consecutive months, and is far from the 2% inflation target. Although the US economic data has begun to strengthen, the market still has doubts about the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in the future. The probability of interest rate hikes in December is less than 30%, which is good for the price trend of spot silver.
If the core PCE price index in July performs well, the Fed's concerns about inflation will also decrease. The market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate hike in December will rise, and the US dollar market will be boosted, which is positive for the silver price trend.
On the contrary, if the core PCE price index of the United States performs in July sluggishly, the probability of the Federal Reserve hike in December will further decline, the US dollar market will be under pressure and downward, and silver prices will rise in response.
As of 18:23, the precious metals market center of Jintou.com showed that the spot gold price was $1,303.25/ounce, and the spot silver price was $17.35/ounce.
Recommended reading: "August 31 Spot Trading Reminder: US initial request data/US July PCE price index annual rate"
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