Under the storm of interest rate hikes in Fed , the United States still produced a mixed August inflation report. The overall year-on-year growth rate of PCE price index slowed down for the second consecutive month, but the core index unexpectedly accelerated upward, aggravating inflation concerns.
htmlOn September 30, data from the US Department of Commerce showed that the US PCE price index in August increased by 6.2% year-on-year, 6% higher than market expectations, and the previous value was 6.3% (revised to 6.4%). The year-on-year growth rate was the second consecutive month, and the lowest growth rate since February this year; the PCE price index in August was 0.3% month-on-month, 0.1% higher than expected, and the previous value was -0.1%.At the same time, the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve attaches most attention to unexpectedly accelerates its upward trend.
Core PCE price index (excluding food and energy prices) increased by 4.9% year-on-year in August, higher than the expected 4.7% , with the previous value of 4.6% (revised to 4.7%), the year-on-year growth rate hit the highest record since May this year; in August, the core PCE price index increased by 0.6% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.5%, with the previous value of 0.1% (revised to 0%), and the month-on-month growth rate is still close to the historical high.
Energy prices remain the main driving force for the slowdown in price growth in 8html April. Specifically:
Compared with July, commodity prices fell by 0.3% in August, service prices rose by 0.6%, food prices rose by 0.8%, and energy prices fell by 5.5%.
Compared with the same period last year, commodity prices rose by 8.6% in August and service prices rose by 5.0%. Food prices rose 12.4%, while energy prices rose 24.7%.
In addition, labor costs continue to rise, and personal consumption expenditures begin to slow down.
In August, personal income in the United States increased by 0.3% month-on-month, expected to be 0.3%, and the previous value was 0.2% (upwardly revised to 0.3%); personal consumption expenditure increased by 0.4% month-on-month, expected to be 0.2%, and the previous value was 0.1% ( revised to -0.2% ). After inflation adjustment, personal actual expenditure in August increased by 0.1% month-on-month, expected to be 0.1%, and the previous value was 0.2% ( was revised down to -0.2% ).
This means that the personal savings rate has barely changed for the month and remains above the historical lows after the Lehman crisis.
html Core PCE prices unexpectedly accelerated upward in August, which is not good news for the Federal Reserve, which just raised interest rates by 75 basis points last week. According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the market expects that the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 75 basis points in November is more than 60%, and the possibility of 50 basis points is less than 40%. After the data of was released, the dollar index rose slightly in the short term and is now at 112.55; the US stock futures rose in the short term, and the S&P 500 index futures turned higher.
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