Global macro
Before the market on Friday, the US core PCE price index in August html slightly exceeded expectations in July, and the three major futures indexes fluctuated and sorted out
Dow futures fell 0.01%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.01%.
The United States core PCE price index rose 4.9% year-on-year in August, with an expected 4.70% and the previous value of 4.60%. The U.S. core PCE price index rose by 0.6% month-on-month in August, expected to be 0.50%, and the previous value was 0.10%.
Feder 's favorite inflation indicator is coming tonight! It may guide the next step of rate hikes. It is expected that
Tonight (20:30 pm Beijing time), the Fed's favorite inflation indicator core PCE will be announced. Previously, Fed Chairman Powell said that the PCE indicator is a better measure because it more accurately reflects the inflation that people actually face in their lives. Nomura expects that the month-on-month increase of 0.5% in core PCE in August may be too high, well above the 0.25% level, which may force the Fed to slow down the pace of rate hikes in , but it will not be as strong inflationary pressure as the August CPI data shows. As of press time, the market's forecast for a 50 basis point rate hike in November was 42.5%, and the forecast for a 75 basis point rate hike was 57.5%.
U.S. stocks oversold has surpassed the COVID-19 pandemic. Goldman Sachs: The pain has not ended yet
Has the US stock market fallen to the end? In the eyes of Goldman Sachs trader Matt Fleury, obviously not. He believes that although the US stock market is extremely oversold, even exceeding the situation when the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States in March 2020, the proportion of stocks with stock prices above the 50-day moving average among multiple indexes is still "amazingly low" and may continue to decline. According to him, as US stocks continue to be sold, it will be difficult to find support for the next US stock crash. In other words, trading volume will still decline, and no one will be willing to "take over" when US stocks fall. In addition, insufficient demand for put options will lead to higher prices for such derivatives. In addition, he also believes that the Fed may not help the US stock market this time.
The strong dollar has caused most American companies to "harm" and sales are at risk of shrinking
's sharp appreciation is not only a global trouble, but also put further pressure on US corporate profits in the third quarter. Since the beginning of this year, the Federal Reserve's sharp interest rate hikes have led to rising U.S. Treasury yields, and investors have poured into the US "safe haven" amid concerns about slowing global economic growth. The US dollar has been in an upward cycle. This has caused trouble for American companies whose sales revenue is from overseas. As the dollar strengthens, it shrinks when these companies denominate overseas revenue in US dollars. Ohsung Kwon, U.S. equity strategist at Bank of America Securities, said: "A strong dollar is a real headwind and will have a greater impact on U.S. corporate earnings than in the second quarter.
The "darkest moment" has not arrived yet? IEA Director: 2023 natural gas supply is more tight
IEA Director Fatih Birol said on Thursday that natural gas supply will be tighter next year due to obvious deliberate vandalism of the Nord Stream pipeline. "We are likely to see that the LNG market in 2023 will be quite tense, and may even be even more tense than this year. If China's economy recovers in full... Europe will have a hard time attracting so much LNG," he said. Birole warned that Europe will face a major energy supply crisis this winter, and Russia has cut off natural gas supply from Nord Stream 1 pipeline. And this week, Europe's natural gas supply is under new pressure as the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline leaks.
chip "can't sell anymore"? South Korea's chip production has been cut for the first time in four years, and shipments have declined for two consecutive months. Data released by the South Korean Bureau of Statistics on Friday (30th) showed that South Korea's semiconductor production has declined for the first time in more than four years, indicating that chip manufacturers are gradually adapting to the slowdown in global demand. According to the Statistics Bureau data, South Korea's semiconductor production in August fell 1.7% year-on-year, a sharp reversal compared with the 17.3% increase in July. This is the first cut since January 2018.As one of the driving forces of economic growth, demand has cooled significantly in recent stages. global economy is deteriorating and moving towards recession, and semiconductor manufacturers are also preparing for a slowdown in demand.
is worried about "cutting uranium", the US Secretary of Energy: "quit" Russian nuclear fuel as soon as possible!
Since Russia dominates the global nuclear fuel market and controls about one-quarter of the United States' nuclear fuel supply, the United States has to make response plans in advance. According to local media reports on Thursday, the Biden administration is trying to free the United States from its dependence on Russia's nuclear fuel supply. U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said the Biden administration is trying to break the U.S. reliance on Russian nuclear fuel and strive to increase U.S. uranium enrichment capacity at home. These ideas may be reflected in key legislation to be introduced in the United States.
Hot News
Star Tech stocks Going and falling before the market
Apple is no longer a "safe haven"? Bank of America downgraded its rating to "neutral", with a target price cut of 14%
It is reported that $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ downgraded its stock rating for $Apple (AAPL.US)$ in its latest report due to concerns about weak consumer demand. According to the report, Bank of America analysts led by Wamsi Mohan will lower their ratings of Apple from "buy" to "neutral", and their target price has been reduced by about 14% from $185 to $160, while also lowering their performance expectations for Apple in fiscal 2023. As of press time, Apple fell 0.39% before the market trading.
has made the most clear statement so far! Zuckerberg announced that META will freeze recruitment, and cost reduction priority
Facebook parent company $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ announced on Thursday that it will freeze recruitment and reorganize some teams to cut costs and adjust work priorities. Meta CEO Zuckerberg announced the decision at a weekly Q&A meeting. This speech can be said to be the clearest statement of the company: Meta will further cut costs and freeze recruitment as competition becomes increasingly fierce and advertising revenue slows.
"Cold" is transmitted to Google cloud game: Stadia is about to be shut down, and the technology "soul" will still be saved
On Thursday local time, $Google-A (GOOGL.US)$ admitted that its attempt to reshape the game industry around cloud computing failed. The company will close the cloud gaming service Stadia early next year to further reduce costs and save expenses. According to the official page, the Stadia server will be closed on January 18. The company promises to provide refunds for all hardware, games and additional content purchased by players through the Stadia store. Stadia head Phil Harrison admitted that although Stadia's streaming game technology is strong, it did not meet the company's expectations in terms of user appeal.
Micron Technology rose more than 1% before the market opened, and the fourth quarter profit exceeded expectations
On Thursday, Eastern Time, $MU.US$ announced a dismal forecast. What is even more dismal than the financial report is its pessimistic expectations for the next fiscal quarter. Micron CEO bluntly stated that chip orders for customers from all walks of life are decreasing. As the largest memory chip manufacturer in the United States, Micron's pessimistic attitude towards the prospect of chip demand is also a microcosm of the pessimism of the entire consumer electronic chip industry. As of press time, Micron Technology rose 1.24% to $50.63.
Nike fell nearly 11% before the market, and North American inventory soared by 65%. Clearing of inventory will lead to a further decline in Q2 gross profit margin
$NKE (NKE.US)$ fell 11% this year to US$85.06. The company's first-quarter revenue was US$12.69 billion, higher than the expected US$12.31 billion; earnings per share were US$0.93, higher than the expected US$0.92; gross profit margin fell by 220 basis points to 44.3%, lower than the market's expectations of 45.4%, mainly due to rising freight and logistics costs, increased price reductions in Nike's direct sales business, and exchange rate changes. The company said that North American inventory increased by 65%, and is taking "decisive actions" to clear inventory. It is expected that the company's gross profit margin will be "temporarily affected" this fiscal year, and is expected to fall by 350-400 basis points in the second fiscal quarter.
Buffett has a heavy position in Oxford Petroleum. Morgan Stanley: Investors should not just spend time copying homework. The intention of the stock god is unknown
After "Stock God" Warren Buffett increased his investment in $OXY.US$ this week, his stock price continued to outperform his peers and the market . Occupy Oil performed well on Thursday, closing up 1.14% to $62.11; by contrast, the price of international crude oil futures fell about 1% on the same day, and the S&P 500 index fell more than 2%. But at the same time, JPMorgan Chase analysts warned investors not to follow up just because of the buy of the stock god, and pointed out that the stock has limited room for upward, and Buffett's move may repeat the failure of the 2008 bet on ConocoPhillips .
focus Chinese stocks
Popular Chinese stocks rose and fell differently before the market opened
Morgan Stanley lowered Alibaba target price 21% to US$110, maintaining the over-equipment rating
Morgan Stanley lowered the target price of $ALIBA (BABA.US)$ by 21% to US$110, maintaining the over-equipment rating; it is expected that its customer management revenue in the second quarter will drop by 4% year-on-year, and believes that the 10-fold non-GAAP price-to-earnings ratio in 2023 is "attractive".
Ideal ONE replacement model Ideal L8 will be launched
$ Ideal Auto (LI.US) $L8 launch conference was held today. As the "successor" of Ideal ONE, Ideal L8 will also be launched simultaneously this time. L8 has launched two models, the L8 Pro and the L8 Max, with prices of 359,800 and 399,800 yuan respectively. The new car will be ordered immediately and will be officially launched in early November.
Shell repurchased about 184,000 shares on New York Stock Exchange on New York Stock Exchange on 29 September, spending about US$1 million
$ Shell (BEKE.US)$ disclosed in an announcement released by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that on September 29, the company repurchased about 184,000 shares on the New York Stock Exchange, costing about US$1 million, with the highest transaction price of US$5.5 per share and the lowest transaction price of US$5.31 per share.
U.S. stocks pre-market turnover TOP20
U.S. stock macro calendar reminder
9-30
20:30 US core PCE price index monthly rate, US core PCE price index annual rate
21:00 Fed Vice Chairman Brainard Speech on financial stability
21:45 Chicago, USA PMI
22:00 The University of Michigan, U.S., Consumer Confidence Index, Final Value,
1 October 1,
00:30 2024 FOMC Tender Committee and Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin delivered a speech on the driving factors of inflation
03:30 US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTCh) released weekly position report
04:15 FOMC Permanent Voting Committee and New York Fed Chairman Williams delivered a speech on financial stability
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