htmlOn October 24, Dangsheng Technology (300073.SZ) opened higher and closed higher and , once rising nearly 8%. As of press time, it was 65.78 yuan per share, up 2.38%, with a total market value of 33.32 billion yuan. news, on the evening of October 23, Dangsheng Technology released its third quarter report for 2022. The company achieved operating income of 14.087 billion yuan in the first three quarters, and increased by 172.40% year-on-year; achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.478 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 103.18%; and achieved net profit excluding non-networks of 1.648 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 220.40%.
price and sales volume both increased
"Operating revenue increased year-on-year, mainly due to the sharp increase in raw material prices, the company's lithium battery positive electrode materials price increased significantly, and sales volume increased at the same time." Dangsheng Technology said.
data shows that Dangsheng Technology is a lithium battery positive electrode material enterprise, mainly engaged in the research, development, production and sales of small lithium batteries, lithium manganese oxide, positive electrode materials such as lithium battery, power lithium battery . Dangsheng Technology's semi-annual report shows that of the company's revenue of 9.113 billion yuan in the first half of the year, 8.129 billion yuan came from nickel-cobalt lithium manganese oxide , nickel-cobalt lithium aluminate and other multi-electrode materials.
Yinshi Finance learned that the positive electrode material determines the performance of electrochemical of lithium batteries, including energy density, security, etc., and accounts for 45% of the material cost of lithium batteries. Since 2022, due to the significant increase in the prices of upstream raw materials such as cobalt, nickel, and lithium, and the sales of downstream new energy vehicles have also driven a significant increase in the prices of positive electrode materials.
At present, the price of Dangsheng Technology's positive electrode material remains high. In the research report, Dongwu Securities pointed out that in terms of profit, it is predicted that Dangsheng Technology's net profit of non-restricted one ton in the third quarter will be above 39,000/ton, which will remain the same month-on-month; if the impact of exchange rate fluctuations is not included, the company's net profit of a single ton in the third quarter is expected to reach about 30,000/ton to 35,000/ton, which is still at a relatively high level. In terms of
sales, according to Dongwu Securities, affected by power restrictions, Dangsheng Technology's shipments in the third quarter were between 16,000 tons and 17,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of about 10%. "As the production of continued to rise in the fourth quarter, we expect (Dangsheng Technology) to reach nearly 70,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 50%. Look at next year, the 50,000 tons high-nickel ternary production capacity of Changzhou Phase II has been gradually put into production, and we expect shipments to maintain a growth of more than 50% in 23 years."
two major factors affect the stock price
and the rapid growth maintained by performance. Since the third quarter, Dangsheng Technology's stock price has suffered a heavy blow. From July 20 to October 21, in 62 trading days, Dangsheng Technology fell by 42.79%. It is true that Dangsheng Technology's decline is closely related to the overall market adjustment, but compared with other tracks, the lithium battery positive electrode sector has a deeper decline.
In this regard, Zhang Xia, the team of China Merchants Securities, believes that the difference in the declines of each track in this round is mainly related to the following factors, one is the penetration rate of , and the other is demand expectations.
"The current penetration rate of electric vehicles' domestic sales volume has reached more than 20%, and the penetration rate to 50% in the future is even higher, which may be 1 to 2 times when the forecast end is expected to be 1 to 2 times. In the past, from 10% penetration rate to the current, the same space of 1 to 2 times is obviously faster. Therefore, under the expectation of slowing slope, coupled with the price pressure brought by production capacity released by , the valuation space will be greatly suppressed." Zhang Xia's team further stated, "From the perspective of demand expectations, this round of overseas inflation continues to hit a new high, Fed The currency shrinkage rate continues to exceed expectations, which will bring concerns about the shrinking demand. The demand for 'discretionary consumption's demand for electric vehicles and other 'optional consumption' is not as rigid as energy demand."
html On September 9, regarding the issue of stock price, Dangsheng Technology responded to investors, "The company's performance level, profitability and operating quality have been in the industry for a long time. The company will continue to do its main business well and return to investors with better operating performance. The short-term fluctuations in the stock price are affected by a variety of factors, but will definitely reflect the company's real investment value in the long run."integrated layout has become a major trend
Although positive electrode materials are of great significance to lithium batteries, the position of positive electrode material manufacturers in the industrial chain is not a match: many positive electrode material companies have relatively single customers and suppliers and lack voice in the industrial chain.
According to Dangsheng Technology's annual report, in 2021, the company purchased a total of 3.487 billion yuan from the top five suppliers, accounting for 48.43% of the total purchase amount; and sold 3.565 billion yuan to the top five customers, accounting for 43.17% of the total sales. This situation is more obvious in , another positive electrode leader, Rongbai Technology (688005.SH). In 2021, the procurement proportion of Rongbai Technology's top five suppliers was 44.07%, and the sales proportion of the top five clients was 84.17%.
The concentration of suppliers and customers is too high, reflected in the financial statements, and is higher prepayment and less prepayment. As of the end of September 2022, Dangsheng Technology's advance payment reached 1.15 billion yuan, while its contract liabilities were only 131 million yuan. At the same time, since 2022, Dangsheng Technology's net profit margin has also been declining, reaching 10.49% in the first three quarters, and 14.07% in the same period last year.
In the view of Wu Hao and Zhang Peng, chief analysts of the electric new industry of Xinda Securities , in the previous round of price increase cycle, the supply and demand pattern of upstream raw materials was the most tense, and the profit of the industrial chain is mainly concentrated to the upstream lithium and cobalt links. At the same time, the concentration of the ternary positive electrode material industry is not high, and the front-wheel drive is facing the impact of downstream integration. After the integration of the industrial chain, the enterprise cost curve will be differentiated, and the industry pattern is expected to be reshaped.
"Raw materials are a breakthrough for positive electrode enterprises to reduce costs. The positive electrode materials and precursor need to develop vertically upstream, increase processing costs and improve profitability." Cinda Securities pointed out in its research report.
In terms of integrated layout, Dangsheng Technology has made many moves. According to the research report of the securities firm, Dangsheng Technology has participated in the development and utilization project of laterite nickel ore. It plans to cooperate in the construction of a nickel production line of 60,000 gold tons per year in the first phase. It also participates in the investment in phosphorus resource development, phosphorus chemical industry, wet phosphoric acid , iron phosphate industry, and builds precursor production capacity. Dangsheng Technology also stated in its semi-annual report that "the company will gradually expand to the upstream resource field, establish long-term sustainable and cost-competitive strategic supply channels, and reduce supply and price risks."
With the competition between precursors and positive electrode companies to expand production, and the demand for cost reduction in the downstream battery industry is becoming stronger and stronger, Yinshi Finance will keep its attention whether it can gain a foothold in future competition.
