Looking back at the mobile phone industry in the first half of the year, I think it is very appropriate to describe it as a small joy and big sorrow.
The domestic mobile phone market is cold again
After 8 years of continuous growth, the domestic smartphone market began to decline continuously in 2017, and mobile phones entered the era of stock. Under the influence of the epidemic, the total shipments of domestic mobile phone market in 2020 totaled 308 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 20.8%, the largest drop since 2017. As the epidemic is effectively controlled and the economy is recovering, the mobile phone market rebounded in 2021, with annual shipments reaching 351 million units. And this year, this warm current has not continued, but has entered the cold again.
According to the news released by the China Institute of Information, in June 2022, the domestic market shipments were 28.017 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. From January to June, the domestic market shipments totaled 136 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 21.7%, of which 5G mobile phone shipments were 109 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 14.5%, accounting for 80.2% of the mobile phone shipments in the same period. Stimulated by the 618 e-commerce promotion, it achieved year-on-year growth in June, but it still couldn't hide the decline in the domestic mobile phone market in the first half of the year.
The reason why the domestic mobile phone market has fallen again comes from many aspects. First, the repeated outbreak of the epidemic has led to a decline in consumer income and consumption capacity. The enthusiasm for purchasing consumables like mobile phones has become increasingly declining, and the replacement cycle has gradually become longer. In the golden period of mobile phone development, the replacement cycle of consumers was about 18 months, and now it has reached about 30 months. Originally, I might have changed it if I like it, but now I can't use it and I've changed it to be more cautious and rational in consumption.
Of course, in addition to the consumer side, there are also important influencing factors on the industry side, that is, product prices have also risen. According to statistics, the average selling price of mobile phones in the Chinese market has increased from the past 1,500 yuan to 2,000 yuan to the price range of 2,700 yuan to 3,000 yuan. In addition to objective factors such as chips and other components, such as inflation, major manufacturers are starting to impact the high-end market, and raising product prices is also an important reason.
In addition, there is another reason that although the mobile phone industry has been highly "involved", there has been no disruptive innovation in recent years. The innovations of manufacturers are not that they have not improved the user experience, but that these innovations have not reached the height that can ignite the market. Moreover, some of the "innovations" are very strongly promoted by manufacturers, but they do not have strong practicality in actual use scenarios, and they feel that they are innovative for the sake of innovation.
I remembered a hot search on Weibo last month, #Why can’t young people change their mobile phones#. Young people, as the main consumer force, have now chosen to “live flat” when changing their mobile phones. The reason is the ones I mentioned above. Consumer purchasing power is more rational when changing phones, the overall price of mobile phones increases, and insufficient product innovation has led to the current mobile phone market being cold again.
However, consumers "live flat" does not mean that manufacturers can "show bad". The competition in the mobile phone market is still very fierce this year. Since the overall demand is difficult to expand or even shrink, it must be "inverted" and seize the share from others. Although the situation should improve with the economic recovery in the second half of the year, under such a decline, it is still a question whether the overall domestic shipment volume can maintain the 300 million mark throughout the year.
MediaTek entered the high-end flagship market
In December last year, MediaTek officially launched the Dimensity 9000 processor, which is based on a 4nm process and uses 1 3.0GHz Cortex-X2 super-large core, 3 2.85GHz A710 large cores and 4 1.8GHz A510 medium cores. The GPU is a ten-core Mali- G710, 8MB three-level cache + 6MB system cache, integrates MediaTek's fifth-generation AI processor APU590, and uses flagship 18-bit HDR-ISP image signal processor, which can support up to 320 million pixel cameras, which can realize three cameras shooting 18-bit HDR videos at the same time, and is equipped with MediaTek HyperEngine game engine... From specifications and parameters to functional characteristics, Dimensity 9000 is a flagship chip, with the goal of impacting the flagship mobile phone market.
At the end of February, OPPO Find X5 Pro Dimensity Edition officially debuted, becoming the first flagship mobile phone equipped with Dimensity 9000 flagship 5G mobile platform officially debuted. This marks that MediaTek chips have once again entered the high-end flagship mobile phone market, with excellent performance and good power consumption performance... MediaTek has delivered a good answer. No matter how high the parameters and how good the publicity are, the core standard for testing products is to put it into experience. MediaTek has taken a crucial step in the flagship mobile phone market. After OPPO, vivo, Honor and Redmi manufacturers have successively launched high-end flagship phones equipped with Dimensity 9000, gradually consolidating the flagship core status of Dimensity 9000, and also gaining market recognition and consumer praise.
Of course, MediaTek was able to enter the flagship mobile phone market again, not overnight, but the result of years of technical accumulation and hard work. Since the domestic 5G officially started commercial use in 2019, MediaTek has begun to actively deploy the 5G chip market. From Dimensity 1000 series, Dimensity 900 series, Dimensity 800 series, Dimensity 700 series, later Dimensity 1100, Dimensity 1200, and now Dimensity 9000 series and Dimensity 8000 series, MediaTek has continuously improved its product layout in recent years, while also constantly undergoing technological innovations. Global energy efficiency optimization technology, independent AI processing unit APU, 5G dual-slot dual-pass, MediaTek HyperEngine game engine, etc. have brought users a better product experience, especially in terms of energy efficiency. Compared with friendly chips, it consumes less power while providing the same performance, which has had a great impact on the technological development of the entire industry, and is also a key point for MediaTek to enter the flagship market this year.
In addition, in addition to successfully entering the flagship mobile phone market, MediaTek also achieved excellent results in its sub-flagship and high-end product lines this year. On the performance ranking of Android flagship mobile phones in June released by Antutu a while ago, the Dimensity 8000 series, as the flagship product of this year, can be said to have a wave of "dominant". This undoubtedly shows the manufacturers' favor for this series of chips, and many of the models are popular products this year and have good sales in the market.
According to the Android "2022 Second Quarter Preference List" released by Antutu this month, the proportion of models equipped with MediaTek has reached 26.9%, which is a significant increase compared with 19% in the first quarter. It can be said that MediaTek occupies an increasingly important position in the domestic mobile phone market this year, injecting new strength into the mobile phone industry and providing consumers with greater choice space.
Of course, Qualcomm is still the leader in Android mobile phone chips, especially in the flagship field, where there are more models and product sales. Currently, the two major manufacturers have released Dimensity 9000+ and Snap 8+ Gen1 for the flagships in the second half of the year, which have slightly upgraded compared to the previous generation, and the competition in the second half of the year is still fierce. In addition, Qualcomm is expected to release a new generation of flagship chips in November this year. MediaTek should also iterate at the end of the year. Whether Qualcomm will make a strong counterattack or MediaTek will take a step further is very worth looking forward to.
Tube folding screen mobile phone
Compared with previous years, the pattern of the folding screen mobile phone market has undergone a huge change in 2021. In addition to Huawei and Samsung launch new iterative products, Xiaomi and OPPO have also entered the market one after another. There are two "players" in the folding screen mobile phone market. Mainstream mobile phone manufacturers have begun to enter the "new track" of folding screens and start a new round of competition. In 2022, it can be seen as a continuation of this competition. In January, Honor released its first folding screen mobile phone, Honor MagicV, which became the first folding screen mobile phone equipped with flagship chips this year. In April, vivo brought the vivo X Fold, which also equipped with flagship chips. So far, mainstream domestic manufacturers have entered the folding screen mobile phone field.
Of course, in addition to the addition of "new players", "old players" are not idle either. Huawei brought a new folding screen mobile phone - Mate Xs 2 at the press conference at the end of April. What is very interesting is that it does not continue the inner folding design of Mate X2, but uses an eagle-wing hinge like Mate Xs, becoming the unique outer folding product at the moment. Of course, there is also a very important point that through lightweight design and light material, it controls the weight to 255g, which is basically equivalent to a flagship phone with a protective case, and takes an important step on the road to solving the heavy folding screen.
As large manufacturers enter the "new track" of folding screens, as the maturity of related technologies such as hinges and flexible screens, the price of folding screens has also begun to drop significantly. Compared with the previous price of nearly 20,000 yuan, the folding screen mobile phones of several major mainstream domestic manufacturers last year and this year are basically controlled at around 10,000 yuan, making folding screen mobile phones no longer so out of reach in front of ordinary consumers, which has indeed played a very significant role in promoting the sales of folding screen mobile phones.
According to the Counterpoint Research report, the sales volume of China's foldable screen smartphone market in the first quarter of 2022 was 670,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 391% and a month-on-month increase of 152%, and maintained growth momentum in April and May. It is expected that the shipments of China's foldable screen smartphone market in 2022 will increase by 225% year-on-year to 2.7 million units. In January-May, Huawei accounted for 50% of China's foldable screen sales, followed by Samsung accounted for 20%, and OPPO and Xiaomi ranked third and fourth respectively. The considerable growth rate does show that with the entry of mainstream manufacturers, the sales of folding screen mobile phones have indeed entered a new stage. It is a fact that rapid growth is, but in my opinion, it is very worth noting that its growth base is relatively small, and the total shipment of related products still accounts for the total shipment of smartphones. The statistics for the first half of the year have not yet been released, but referring to the first quarter data, the proportion is still less than 1%.
Many large manufacturers have entered the market with strong entry, and the overall sales have increased significantly, and they are not cold; but the growth base is relatively low, and even after the rapid growth, sales volume accounts for a small proportion of the overall and is not very popular. Therefore, I think it is very appropriate to use the idiom tepid to describe the folding screen mobile phone market in the first half of the year.
In fact, foldable screen mobile phones are also the product of the industry’s “involved”. They are a means for manufacturers to seek differentiation and an effective way for manufacturers to occupy the high-end market and enhance brand influence. This new form can also solve the contradiction between users’ demand for larger screens and product portability. However, now both the product itself and the market size are still in a relatively preliminary stage. Many problems in product design, software interaction, ecological system, etc. need to be solved. I really like the slogan from OPPO Find N: From trying out to using it frequently, the development of folding screen mobile phones is far from enough for people to try out. How to capture commonly used people is the key to the next and the direction of efforts of major manufacturers in the future.
was written at the end
Overlooking at the domestic mobile phone industry in the first half of the year, although major manufacturers did not "show up", the market decline was still obvious. Even if consumption can be stimulated to a certain extent through price reduction promotion, this stimulating effect is limited. Moreover, with the improvement of mobile phone performance and the continuous improvement of the fluency of the system, the service life of the mobile phone has been extended. Under the current consumption concept of more cautious and rationality, it is very difficult to make the market prosperous again.
MediumTek’s entry into the flagship mobile phone market is the result of their mutual choice and mutual achievements between them and mobile phone manufacturers. It is a key step for them to take to the high-end market in their respective fields and gives consumers more room for choice. However, facing Qualcomm, which has been deeply rooted in the flagship market for many years, is far from relaxing MediaTek still has a long way to go. Continuing to polish products is the only way out. Although the folding screen has seen a significant increase compared with last year's sales, it is worth noting that its base itself is very small, and sales of hundreds of thousands of yuan even account for less than 1% of the total shipment volume, and there is still a long way to go to the mainstream. The overall market is not a favorable factor for MediaTek's subsequent layout or the development of folding screens.
