(report producer/author: Minsheng Securities, Ma Tianyi)
1. Start: What is Yuan Universe ? How to define the meta universe? —The two essences of the metaverse
(I) Reconstructs the human sensory experience dimension
The essence of the metaverse: digital human sensory experience—not only vision and hearing, but also touch, taste, smell, etc.; and the three dimensions that act on humans—time, space, and experience. As depicted in the movies " Matrix " and " Inception ", the core logic of the metaverse is to digitize all the eyes, ears, nose, tongue, body and mind, etc. of our bodies, so that the sensory experience is almost no different from the real world in the virtual world.
(II) Reconstructs the generation and driving methods of interactive content/objects
In the traditional Internet, the interactive content/objects are basically designed and rendered by real people (software engineers, creators, etc.). However, in the era of the meta-universe, AI-generated content is a major new production factor under the concept of the meta-universe. AI will exist in various links of supply and demand in large quantities.
Industry perspective: The meta-universe symbolizes the new generation of digital economy
Digitalization is the main driving force for future economic growth: China Academy of Information and Communications Technology data, in 2020, my country's digital economy scale reached 39.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 38.6% of GDP, a year-on-year increase of 2.4 percentage points, and its contribution to the economy is further strengthened. At the same time, in 2020, the penetration rate of of the digital economy of agriculture, industry and services was 8.9%, 21.0% and 40.7%, respectively, an increase of 0.7, 1.5 and 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, respectively. The industrial digital economy is still developing continuously. With the continued and stable recovery of my country's economy in the later stage of the epidemic, the digital economy will continue to develop positively, and digitalization will penetrate to a larger and deeper level, and there is a lot of room for penetration to increase. Why does
need to be digitized? —Basic problems faced by traditional enterprises
The high cost of "survival" is the key to affecting the benefits of China's real economy; on the other hand, the inverse vortex of "competition" is also more likely to trigger market price wars and the increase in customer promotion/maintenance costs. The sales growth of real economy enterprises has encountered a "bottleneck". Taking automobile manufacturing, textile and clothing, general equipment manufacturing industry , etc. as an example, revenue growth slowed down and even showed negative growth. (Report source: Future Think Tank)
Cloud computing development adds new vitality to enterprise digitalization
Online - Let real economy enterprises go online; networking - let real economy enterprises reach more potential opportunities through online channels and form a huge symbiotic network; intelligence - When network collaboration based on online and offline integration is formed, a large amount of data interaction and precipitation is formed, through effective data value discovery, feeding back to the entire collaboration network.
Digitalization + cloud-based assistance to enterprises to transform data resources into data assets
Real economy enterprises chimney system construction method brings repeated investment in resources, data island and other phenomena, making the generated data difficult to systematically and centrally manage data assets, thus making the accumulated data assets driving the business itself even more out of reach. Connect the entire business link based on data, so as to realize the current situation of each business link, online and offline services, and make judgments on the possibility of business development trends based on in-depth data processing and exploration capabilities.
Digitalization + Cloud access breaks the shackles of the "Hu Huanyong Line"
Cloud computing represents digital technology and capabilities development, making it possible to develop the economy and production through the restrictions of geographical conditions, resource distribution and other factors, providing more fair development opportunities and sharing with dividends , so that technology and services can be reached deeper, farther and more equitably. Based on the trend of real economy enterprises going to the cloud, it can be found that while driving the company's own business development, cloud access also promotes the western region of China to gain more long-term development momentum.
How to understand the digital economy?
"The 14th Five-Year Plan for Digital Economy Development" points out that the digital economy is a new economic form with data assets as the key element, modern information network as the main carrier, integrated application of information and communication technology and comprehensive digital transformation as an important driving force, and promote a more unified economic form of fairness and efficiency.
2. How do Chinese and American giants plan meta-universe What are the differences in the development path of the US dollar universe in the Chinese?
Regulatory environment: China is cautious in view; the United States encourages investment and active supervision in parallel
China: is cautious in view. In the digital economy, rulemaking may trigger a battle for dominance. At the national level, rules are a means for the state to guide the development direction of the digital market to maximize the value of data. At the level of technology enterprises, the rules are mainly led by large companies and standard organizations. China and the United States are different from the regulation of the metaverse and the digital currency .
United States: bottom-up encourages investment and active supervision to go hand in hand. The United States is the first to launch the meta-universe concept, embracing innovation while actively paying attention to data security and cryptocurrency regulation. License management for cryptocurrencies varies from state to state, but the framework has been gradually improved and has strong enforceability, effectively curbing the chaos in the early stages of blockchain and digital currency.
Technical reserve: China has complete infrastructure and great potential; leading technology, deepening the layout of the underlying technology of the United States
China: infrastructure and great market potential. The Metaverse concept has been around since the rise of the United States. With the advantages of integrating business advantages of Tencent , byte, Alibaba , etc., it quickly made arrangements. Overall, my country is still in a trend of following and catching up in the underlying technology. However, thanks to its strong infrastructure capabilities, population size advantages and the big data behind it, it contains great potential.
United States: meta-universe pioneer, leading the underlying technology, and comprehensive industrial layout. Thanks to years of accumulation and layout in the technology field, the United States has initially formed certain technical barriers in metacosmic infrastructure and platforms, and plays a leading role in many fields of the global metacosmic industry.
Infrastructure: China's communications leads, and the United States' cloud computing still occupies a major position
China: communication network is more than the United States, and the rapid implementation and promotion of G. On the one hand, Huawei has the technical strength to define 5G standards. On the other hand, strong infrastructure capabilities can promote 5G. Cloud computing is growing rapidly, and Alibaba Cloud is already the fifth in the world, with a market share of 3.7%.
United States: cloud computing dominates, and CR3 composed of Amazon , Microsoft, Google accounts for 60%.
Hardware entrance: China is still catching up in VR/AR shipments and key technologies, and
China: is still catching up in VR/AR shipments, such as perceived interaction, rendering calculation, content production and distribution, and scenario applications. Pico accounts for 4% of the global VR/AR headset shipments, which is lower than Oculus.
United States: American companies entered AR/VR earlier, started to make layouts early, and had obvious first-mover advantage. 1Q210culus shipments accounted for 75% of global VR/AR shipments, and its year-on-year market share doubled.
Artificial Intelligence : China leads in the accumulation of big data and computing power, and the United States has obvious advantages in the field of AI chips
China: The development time of the basic layer of is relatively short, and it needs to be improved in algorithm theory and platform development. However, China has a large population base, and it has natural advantages in the accumulation of big data, and is relatively ahead in comprehensive computing power. With the emergence of "domestic lights" such as Huawei HiSilicon, Horizon, Cambrian , my country's artificial intelligence is showing a good development trend of rapid catching up.
United States: AI technology ecosystem is becoming more and more built, leading China in the fields of chips and computing power, deep learning frameworks, etc. Technology giants such as Google, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoftml4 are making great efforts.
development tools: Chinese games are product-oriented and have rich video development tools; American game engine has leading professional development capabilities.
China: games are mostly product-oriented, and engine research and development is mostly self-developed engines, not commercial ones. However, the Chinese game market has advantages such as user base and rich content, and overseas engine technology has a wide investment. In addition, China is in a leading position in the UGC community level.
United States: has developed professional development engines in game engines, such as Unreal and Unity, and there are also R o bl o x for a game player. In terms of material language rendering, Omniverse is the leader.
3. Qicheng: Why is the meta universe? Mobile Internet has developed rapidly for nearly 20 years and has entered the era of large cycle
Traditional Internet development can be divided into two major stages: PC Internet stage (1969-2008) and mobile Internet stage (2008-to-present). The emergence of the Internet has changed the entire world.
The Internet has been developing to this day, and it has encountered three major difficulties: Market space: The traffic growth space is almost at its peak, and the traffic dividend is gradually disappearing; Content: The content is single, the user experience is monotonous, and the distance between people and things is still very far away; Policy: The wave of anti-monopoly has begun, aiming at the Internet giants. (Report source: Future Think Tank)
traffic growth space almost hits the peak, traffic dividend gradually disappears
Internet traffic growth space almost hits the peak, traffic dividend gradually disappears: As of June 2021, the number of Internet users in my country reached 1.011 billion, and the Internet penetration rate reached 71.6%. As of June 2021, the number of mobile Internet users in my country reached 1.007 billion, and the proportion of netizens using mobile phones to access the Internet was 99.6%. 2021Q2 China Mobile Internet users have an average daily usage time of 5.8 hours, and the 6-hour ceiling has not been broken.
The user penetration rate of Chinese Internet giants has basically reached its peak, and the ceiling shows: As of Q2 2021, the BAT penetration rate exceeded 80%, and the user penetration rate of Tencent and Alibaba has reached 96.2% and 92.7% respectively. Toutiao successfully broke through with its short video products and became a giant, with a penetration rate of 63.1%. From the content side, multiple sub-tracks have entered the stage of stock user: the user penetration rate of mobile games, mobile videos and mobile music has exceeded 60%.
Anti-monopoly wave has begun, driving innovation of Internet giants
Since the end of 2020, a new round of anti-monopoly wave has begun in the world, and international and domestic legislation has accelerated to strengthen supervision of technology platforms; anti-monopoly policies on traditional businesses of Internet giants have forced Internet companies to subvert innovation and find new growth points. When the mobile Internet traffic space reaches its peak, the dividends of the meta-universe era have already begun.
What can the meta-universe do: under the digital economy, the meta-universe will generate new employment opportunities in each link
The meta-universe involves a wide range of fields and complex technologies, and has a large scope of industrial chain paving. Some manufacturers choose to give full play to their professional advantages in their own fields, and have good abilities. Manufacturers try to break down barriers and take into account the development of the middle and upper reaches. The entry of major manufacturers has created diversified employment opportunities for the market.
hardware equipment research and development and manufacturing and software-side high-quality content will become the key points of future competition in the metaverse. hardware and software support each other and complement each other, building the profit base of future manufacturers and putting higher requirements for practitioners.
Under the digital economy, creating diversified employment opportunities
The implementation of the meta universe as a new digital foundation in the future requires large-scale "digital infrastructure". The breakthrough of the meta-universe must develop XR technology and brain-computer interfaces, digital twins, virtual people, blockchain and other key core technologies.
With the development of the metaverse, "new infrastructure" talents such as 5G, communications, and underlying architecture will usher in another period of rapid growth in demand. my country's new infrastructure core technical talent gap reached 4.17 million by the end of 2020. Among them, in terms of cloud computing talents, first-tier cities have the most obvious demand. The gap in cloud computing talent in Beijing is nearly 120,000, followed by Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, with more than 90,000, 70,000 and 60,000 respectively.It is expected that in the next five years, my country's cloud computing industry will face a talent demand of 1.5 million people.
4. Conversion: What is needed for the development of the metaverse? The metaverse as a new type of efficiency tool requires powerful underlying technology support
The metaverse industry chain can be divided into three parts: underlying equipment, front-end equipment, and scene content entrance. Among them, the underlying equipment includes servers, routers, switches, etc.; the front-end equipment platform includes VR/AR, 3D rendering tools, etc., and the scene content portal covers many fields such as games, social networking, shopping, and theaters.
From the way of data flow, the underlying elements of the metaverse
From the perspective of data flow: edge computing , communication, cloud computing, simulation chip, GPU, data center server, blockchain, AI, 3D rendering, virtual humans, VR/AR are the core links of the metaverse content collection-transmission-presentation. Network security and data copyright protect the metaverse from the two dimensions of "tangible" and "invisible".
high-speed network: The "pulse" of the metaverse provides guarantees for high bandwidth, low latency, and wide connections
to accelerate the large-scale deployment of 5G networks; policies set the tone of base station quantitative goals, and operators invest in an orderly manner. "The 14th Five-Year Plan for Digital Economy Development" proposes to build a high-speed, ubiquitous, integrated world, cloud and network integration, intelligent and agile, green, low-carbon, safe and controllable intelligent and comprehensive digital information infrastructure, focusing on the construction of fiber optic networks, 5G networks, IPv6, and spatial information infrastructure. Integrated coverage of G network in typical fields such as industry, power grid, ports, etc., to promote the integrated application of the industry. In 2021, my country added G base stations in in the whole year, and the total number of completed and opened 1.425 million. According to the 14th Five-Year Plan, the number of 5G base stations per 10,000 people will reach 26 (the minimum target) by 2025. If calculated based on 1.4 billion people, the number of 5G base stations will reach 3.64 million in 25 years. It is estimated that by the end of 22, the cumulative number of base stations will exceed 2 million.
Edge Cloud Computing: The "Context" of the Metauniverse - Future Family-level computing power "Small Universe"
Massive data era Edge computing brings a new round of computing storm. data generated worldwide each year will grow from 33ZB in 2018 to 175ZB in 2025. The traditional "data center-content distribution-mobile phone/PC" model can no longer meet the demands of increasing storage, computing and interaction of massive data in the era of cloud computing + IoT. In order to improve the timeliness and effectiveness of data processing, edge computing came into being. Edge computing technology is developing steadily and has now entered the stage of industry implementation. According to CCID data, in 2020, the size of China's edge computing market reached 19.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.2%; in 2021, the size of China's edge computing market is expected to reach 32.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.1%.
Cloud computing: The "spirit" of the meta-universe - Computing, storage, and network are the basic technology of cloud computing
Computing, storage, and network have built the foundation of cloud computing. The three types of service linkage are the foundation of upper-level applications and business operations. Among them, the paid cores of the three parts are charged on demand, but the charging standards are different. Calculation is mainly charged according to nodes, storage is charged according to the amount of stored data, and network is charged according to bandwidth.
analog chip: the "heart" of the metaverse
analog chip connects the physical world and the digital world, meets the computing needs of the content, network, blockchain, and graphics rendering of the metaverse, and is indispensable in electronic systems. integrated circuit can be divided into analog chips and digital chips, which process continuous analog signals and discrete digital signals respectively; analog chips can be divided into power management chips , signal chain chips, and radio frequency chips according to functions. According to WSTS, the global analog chip market size will reach US$61.2 billion in 2021, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year.
signal chain chip is responsible for sending, receiving, converting, amplifying, filtering analog signals. Signal chain products can be divided into three categories: linear products, converter products, and interface products. Among them, linear products play a role in amplification, comparison, on, and off during transmission, while converter products are responsible for the mutual conversion of analog signals and digital signals, and interface products realize digital signal transmission between electronic systems.As a leading signal chain analog chip company, Siruipu has widely used chips in communications, industry, home use, medical and other fields.
5. What risks may the development of the metaverse face The risks of the development of the metaverse do not come from the metaverse, but are the risks that are inevitable for the emergence of new things
At present, the metaverse industrial ecosystem is in a chaotic period. Some people may exaggerate their role or utility, and there may be many corresponding problems in the real world. It should be noted that most of the risks exist in today's PC Internet and mobile Internet, and are not unique to the metaverse, such as capital manipulation, public opinion bubbles, risk of addiction, etc., but in the end we were delighted to see that the development of the Internet did not make people addicted, but greatly promoted the development of productivity. (Report source: Future Think Tank)
The development of the meta-universe faces 10 major risks:
(1) Capital manipulation: There are still many uncertainties in the meta-universe in the prototype period. First and second levels The market's pursuit of new things exceeds the speed of industrial development, and the capital market urgently needs to return to rationality.
(2) Public opinion bubble: Irrational public opinion bubble will lead to irrational trading fluctuations in various factor markets.
(3) Ethical constraints: The consensus of the ethical framework still needs to be explored from multiple perspectives. It is a long process.
(4) Monopoly tension: The competitive situation between the giants in determines the relative closure of their ecology, and it is difficult to achieve complete openness and distributed interaction.
(5) Industry Involved: The breakthrough in rules has not essentially changed the current situation of industry Involved. The metaverse is not a paradise.
(6) Computing power pressure: how to ensure the stability of cloud computing, low-cost computing power resources and other problems need to be solved.
(7) Economic risk: Economic risk may be transmitted from the virtual world to the real world.
(8) Risk of addiction: Over-immersion in the virtual world may also aggravate psychological problems such as social fear and social distancing.
(9) Privacy risk: People lack awareness of privacy protection in the current Internet era. Individual privacy data, as the underlying resource that supports the continuous operation of the metaverse, needs to be continuously updated and expanded. Compliance collection, storage and management of data resources remains to be discussed.
(10) Intellectual Property: The issue of rights confirmation of intangible assets has always been the main factor plaguing the development of related industries. In the future, multi-subject cooperation and adaptation and application across the boundaries of virtual and real may cause some property rights disputes.
report excerpt:
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(This article is for reference only and does not represent any of our investment advice. If you need to use relevant information, please refer to the original text of the report.)
Selected report source: [Future Think Tank]. Future Think Tank - Official Website
