Although the front line of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has not changed much for several weeks, the two sides are still fighting extremely fiercely, and they are gathering troops, as if they are looking for an opportunity to engage in a large-scale decisive battle. Just as Russia's mobilization of 300,000 reserve troops is about to be completed, according to the Russian media Independent, on October 24th local time, Maximov, director of the Kiev City Recruitment Center, said that due to the current situation, the Ukrainian government will launch a new round of large-scale mobilization, and the mobilization is expected to continue until 2023. Maksimov also said that all Ukrainian citizens who have the obligation to serve in the military will become targets of mobilization and the conscription order will be issued anytime and anywhere. According to Ukrainian law, all male citizens aged 18 to 60 have an obligation to serve in the military, which means that all adult men under the age of 60 may receive a summons for recruitment.
This kind of mobilization is quite rare after World War II , which means that the Ukrainian government has almost given up its economic operation and national survival, and is ready to send all adult men to the battlefield, which is a desperate bet. In contrast, Russia has clearly stated when issuing mobilizations that the targets of mobilization do not include college students, military-industrial enterprises staff, and people who need to take care of their families, and only those with military experience are recruited. The Ukrainian government's high-intensity mobilization can only explain one problem, that is, the Ukrainian army's troops are already extremely scarce. Although Maximov explained that the mobilized forces "not only need to perform defensive tasks, but also to use them for offense", in general, only the side that is forced to the end of the situation will adopt such a force of mobilization, and it is difficult for the side in such a desperate situation to launch an active attack.
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Ukrainian army has had an overwhelming advantage in military strength, which is also the basis for Ukraine's attempt to defeat the Russian army's quick decision, and it also launched a series of successful counterattacks. However, the Ukrainian commanders frequently made major mistakes when commanding the war, wasting the lives of soldiers.
For example, in the summer of this year, the Russian army had cut off the supply line of North Donetsk-Lisichangsk and formed a three-sided siege on it, but the senior Ukrainian army still refused to give up this place that must be lost, allowing the Ukrainian soldiers whose supplies were cut continued to defend to the death, eventually causing a large number of casualties. For example, the recent Khlsong , many battle examples have proved that the Ukrainian army, which lacks air supremacy and sufficient number of artillery and armored forces, is unable to break through the Russian army's tight and gradient defense line. On October 18, Su Luoweijin, commander-in-chief of the Special Military Operation, said in an interview with the Russian Satellite News Agency that the Russian army can eliminate 600 to 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers every day. In recent days, as the Ukrainian offensive weakened, the Russian army's results have also decreased, but it can still eliminate about 300 Ukrainian soldiers every day. The wrong decisions made by the Ukrainian army for political reasons have caused the Ukrainian army to suffer huge casualties.
Some media believe that the Ukrainian government issued this extreme conscription order to organize another large-scale offensive. However, some military experts pointed out that the main purpose of the Ukrainian government's recruitment this time should be to defend. After weeks of counterattacks, the Ukrainian army consumed so much that Ukrainian Prime Minister Smegal asked the West for assistance in public, hoping that the West could transport a large amount of ammunition and weapons to Ukraine "within a few days." Under such circumstances, the Ukrainian army had actually lost the ability to launch an effective counterattack. Moreover, after eight months of cruel battle, the officers and soldiers in the Ukrainian army who had experienced many years of baptism in the Donbas conflict were almost exhausted, and the officers and soldiers trained by NATO also suffered heavy losses in this round of counterattack. At the same time, people with good physical condition, military experience and nationalist enthusiasm have joined the army during previous mobilizations. At present, there are probably not many healthy people available for remittance in Ukrainian society. Therefore, these temporarily pieced together old, weak and disabled people who lack weapons and equipment may have to barely perform defensive tasks and are unable to launch an offensive.
In fact, there are many details recently that can reflect the fact that Ukrainian soldiers are almost exhausted. For example, Russia and Ukraine recently exchanged prisoners, and the more than 100 Ukrainian prisoners released by Russia were actually women. It can be seen that the Ukrainian army has begun to send large quantities of women to the front-line battlefield. For example, recently, a reporter from the Russian Satellite News Agency visited the prisoner-of-war camp established by the Russian army. Many captured Ukrainian soldiers were either in their forties or fifties, or in their eighteen or nineteen years old, and rarely were young and middle-aged people aged twenty to forty.
Although the Ukrainian government's conscription policy is very radical, it is questionable whether it can be implemented in place. At present, the total population of Ukraine is about 40 million, but the four states controlled by Russia have a total of millions of people. After the outbreak of the conflict, a large number of Ukrainians fled, causing further shrinkage of Ukrainian population. In addition to Ukraine's political corruption and inefficient government governance, no one can guarantee how many soldiers can be recruited in such large-scale conscription. However, in any case, this conflict is the tragedy of Ukraine. The Ukrainians are likely to "fight to the last person" in this conflict between the East Slavic brothers fighting in the same family. And such a tragic ending may have been doomed as early as the 2014 Color Revolution.
