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For the market, Apple has always been very optimistic. Greg Joswiak, vice president of product marketing, also publicly stated in an interview with the media: Since its launch in mid-October, the iPhone XR has been Apple's best-selling model and the most popular iPhone. But the facts do not seem to be so satisfactory, especially amid the continued negative voices of third-party supply chains and media, many consumers seem to be not optimistic about Apple's future.
Beijing time (January 2 local time), Apple officially announced after the first trading day of 2019: It lowered its revenue expectations for the first quarter of fiscal year 2019 (i.e., the fourth quarter of natural year 2018) and gross profit margin expectations, mainly due to the restrictions on supply of new products and the weakness of some emerging markets. Let’s learn about the specific situation below:
FY 2019 first quarter (2018 Ended on December 29) revenue was US$84 billion, the official revenue forecast was US$89-93 billion 60 days ago, and the median Wall Street expected to be US$91.3 billion;
expects gross profit margin in the first quarter to be 38%, which is the official lower limit of the range of 38%-38.5%;
expects other revenue in the first quarter to be approximately US$550 million, operating expenses are approximately US$8.7 billion, and corporate tax rate is 16.5%.
Apple closed slightly higher 0.11% on Wednesday, and fell 2% at one time during the session, but suspended trading before the negative news was announced.
In a letter to investors by Apple CEO Tim Cook , Cook clearly pointed out that the reason for the decline in revenue mainly includes the following reasons: 1. The shipment time of the three latest iPhone phones launched in September 2018 is different from 2017, which leads to a difficult year; 2. Apple has long predicted that the strengthening of the US dollar will bring about exchange losses . The US dollar index rose by nearly 5% in 2018, which made Apple expect that revenue growth will decrease by about 200 basis points compared with the previous year. At present, this expectation has not changed substantially; 3. After the fourth generation of the new iPhone and Apple Watch, Apple launched new iPad Pro, AirPods wireless headphones and MacBook Replacement products such as Air laptops have led to the supply-side restrictions on the sales of certain products in the fourth quarter of 2018; 4. The weakness of emerging market economy has become the main reason for Apple's decision to lower its revenue guidance for fiscal year 2019. Apple mistakenly underestimated the degree of slowdown in some core emerging market economies, especially the poor demand for iPhones in Greater China, which together with other EM markets constitutes the "reason for the year-on-year decline in most mobile phone revenue." At the same time, in some developed countries, mobile phone upgrades are not as strong as expected: 5. Fewer telecom operators provide subsidies for consumers to replace phones, strengthening the US dollar has led to higher prices for some countries using local currencies to purchase iPhones, and some consumers use Apple's significantly reduced battery replacement prices for older mobile phones.
Although Apple's overall revenue declined due to iPhone, there are also many highlights in its shortcomings: 1. Services, Mac computers, iPad tablets, wearable/smart homes/accessories and other businesses, revenue increased by 19% year-on-year 2. Active installed equipment hit a record high and increased by more than 100 million units in the past 12 months; 3. The number of Apple devices used is the highest in history, becoming the continuous test customers The benchmark for loyalty, satisfaction and participation; 4. Among developed economies such as the United States, Canada, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and South Korea, the company will set the highest income record in history; 5. Mexico , Poland, Malaysia and Vietnam will set the highest income record in EM market; Apple EPS (earnings per share) will hit a record high; 6. The company's profit and cash flow generation capacity is strong, with net cash holdings expected to be US$130 billion at the end of the quarter.
Although Apple's market is not satisfactory and its stock price has declined severely, RBC Capital, a Royal Canadian investment bank, is still optimistic about Apple. In its latest investment research report, analyst Amit Daryanani is still optimistic about Apple's prospects in 2019. He said that Apple has a strong balance sheet, active repurchase methods and the ability to drive gross profit margin growth, so Apple's stock will remain at a "outperform" rating, with a target stock price of US$220 unchanged.However, Daryanani also pointed out that if iPhone demand continues to be sluggish, it means that Apple's pricing and product strategy are worth discussing. So, in your opinion, can Apple in 2019 get rid of the decline in the past few years? Why?
Editor of this article: Wu Yonglong
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