Due to concerns about the surge in the US dollar and the global economic recession, international oil prices fell by more than 2% during the session last night, and then hit the bottom and rebounded and narrowed its decline. As of the close, WTI crude oil fell 0.35%, with a quote of US$84.88 per barrel, and Brent crude oil fell 0.16%, with a quote of US$93.45 per barrel.
Domestic, the main contract for futures crude oil opened sharply by 1.21%, and then fluctuated and rose and turned red. As of the early trading on Tuesday, the main contract for crude oil rose by 0.21%, with a quotation of 671.4 yuan per barrel.
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Major European and American countries PMI data fell below the " boom and bust line " Economic recession concerns heat up
last night Shortly after the opening of the US stock , the US October PMI data was released, and the economic recession signal reappeared. Among them, the initial value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in October was 49.9, falling below the "prosperity and bust line", setting a new low for 28 months, with an expected 51 and the previous value of 52; the initial value of the US Markit service PMI in October was 46.6, with a low in 2 months, with an expected 49.2 and a previous value of 49.3.
Faced with the extremely poor performance of US economic data, US Treasury Secretary Yellen also said that the risk of an economic recession cannot be ruled out. US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the United States may face the substantial impact of financial stability risks, and the US Treasury Department is closely monitoring the "risks" that may arise in the financial system. Yellen hinted that a buyback could be made due to poor liquidity on 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds.
Economic outlook deteriorates, fund managers sell oil long positions
As optimism brought about by OPEC + production cuts in early October was replaced by pessimism caused by deteriorating economic outlook, portfolio investors suddenly reversed the trend last week.
data shows that as of the week ended October 18, among the six most important oil futures and options , hedge fund and other fund managers sold contracts equivalent to 50 million barrels of oil, the fastest selling speed in three months.
And in the past week, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil from New York Mercantile Exchange and WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil were sold sharply, down 29 million and 24 million barrels respectively, which reversed the previous trend.
Overall, under the strong background of the US dollar, European and American economic data continue to deteriorate, and concerns about global economic recession continue to heat up, the future market conditions of commodities such as crude oil, non-ferrous metals may not be optimistic.
However, regarding the future market of oil prices, Goldman Sachs Group gave the latest forecast. Goldman Sachs said it expects the average price of Brent crude oil to be $104.2 per barrel in 2022 and $110 per barrel in 2023. The average price of WTI crude oil is expected to be US$99.8 per barrel in 2022 and US$105 per barrel in 2023.
In addition, Chaos Tiancheng Futures said that the current oil price is still a game between supply-side production cuts and demand weakening. In the supply side, against the backdrop of the stagnation of shale oil in the United States, the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf countries have mastered the main flexible production capacity, and the OPEC+ production cut of 2 million barrels per day has greatly boosted oil prices in the early stage. However, with the openness of the US differences between , Saudi Arabia and , the game around the supply side is still an important variable in oil prices. Currently demand is beginning to stabilize, and new factors are needed to stimulate both upward and downward breakthroughs, so oil prices are expected to fluctuate in range.
