In the past two days, firefights have occurred again in Donetsk and other places in eastern Ukraine, and the scale is getting bigger and bigger. As the conflict and firefighting escalates, people must be increasingly worried whether the war is about to break out?

Author: Shijiangyue

In the past two days, firefights have occurred again in Donetsk and other places in eastern Ukraine, and the scale is getting bigger and bigger. The Donetsk forces said that Ukrainian powerful personnel fired nearly 70 grenades, and shells at the republic, with very fierce firepower.

, and Ukraine said that it was an attack by armed forces in eastern Ukraine, which had caused the death of government military personnel.

As the conflict and firefight escalates, people must be increasingly worried whether the war is about to break out?

01 Ukrainian government forces suffered casualties, conflict escalated

Ukrainian military issued a notice on February 19 that the first Ukrainian soldier was killed since the Russian-Ukrainian standoff crisis, located in eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian military also accused pro-Russian militants of attacks becoming increasingly fierce.

On the other hand, pro-Russian militants in eastern Ukraine claimed that it was the Ukrainian government forces who attempted to regain control of Donetsk and Lugansk by force. Ukrainian authorities denied the statement.

The joint command center in eastern Ukraine said a soldier was injured by shrapnel in a conflict zone that crossed two separatist areas near the Russian border and eventually died. Ukrainian Emergency Services alleges that two more personnel in the department were injured in the attack on the 18th.

Ukrainian government forces said separatists were "firing shells into densely populated areas and placing their shell systems near residences in eastern Ukraine." Government forces said that in this way, some of the separatist armed forces in eastern Ukraine are trying to force our armed forces to fight back, and then they have in turn accused us of shelling civilians.

Government forces added that it continues to "resist and curb armed aggression" without attacking civilians. Most importantly, the Ukrainian government forces accused the Russian military of commanding its troops behind the scenes and attacking in eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian government forces also emphasized that separatist armed forces used 82 and 120 mm caliber mortar shells in front-line towns in Luhansk and eastern Donetsk - this is prohibited from using the " Minsk Agreement ".

The Russian government formally denied the matter, denied the involvement of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, and said it was an internal matter of Ukraine.

It is said that, in Rostov Oblast, , allocated a place for the people of Donetsk and Lugansk in Rostov Oblast, creating conditions for rapid transit at border checkpoints.

Eastern Ukrainian armed forces claim that according to their judgment, Ukrainian President Zelensky will soon order the Ukrainian armed forces to launch an offensive in the region. The Ukrainian armed forces are ready to seize Donbas by force. The eastern Ukrainian armed forces also called on men who could hold weapons to step forward to defend their homes.

However, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied the claim that the Ukrainian government forces were ready to launch an attack in the Donbas region. The United States believes that the news about the "Donbas evacuation" and the explosion are creating excuses for launching operations against Ukraine "under the banner of others."

Russian media said that Vasily Golubev, the governor of Rostov Prefecture, Russia, on the border of Russia and Ukraine, has declared a state of emergency locally as more and more people enter the state from the rebellious areas in eastern Ukraine.

Golubev said at the meeting: "In view of the increasing number of arrivals, we believe it is appropriate to declare a state of emergency in the state."

02 Russia held a strategic exercise and recruited reserve

also attracted the attention of the outside world.

Russian President Putin 18 issued an order to recruit reserve personnel for military training. As we all know, the signals sent by recruiting reserve personnel are unusual, and they are usually mainly to improve combat readiness, or to prepare for the imminent war.Russia's recruitment of reserve personnel at this time obviously made the outside world even more nervous.

However, according to the Russian Satellite News Agency, the recruitment of Russian citizens in the reserve service was mainly for the 2022 military training camp. The Russian armed forces regularly recruit Russian citizens in the reserve for training every year to improve the combat training level of reserve personnel.

So, in Russia, this is a "routine move".

At the same time, Russia will officially hold an established strategic deterrent exercise directed by Putin on the 19th. During the exercise, the ballistic missiles and cruise missiles will be launched.

Note that launching a ballistic missile would be a big move, because the nature of the exercise is defined as a "strategic deterrent force". It is likely that the test-firing of the intercontinental ballistic missile , or the test-firing of the strategic nuclear submarine , and they are all those that can be equipped with nuclear warhead . The signal released by

is also not ordinary.

According to reports from Russian official media, the purpose of this exercise plan is to check the preparations for various military command departments, combat formations, ship units and missile carriers, and to test the reliability of Russia's strategic nuclear weapons and non-nuclear weapons.

In addition, this exercise involves a very wide range of troops and a very large number of personnel. Including the Russian Aerospace Forces, the Southern Military Region, the Strategic Missile Forces, Northern Fleet and Black Sea Fleet and other troops. So, this seems extraordinary. However, Russia said that this was a routine exercise that had been planned before.

However, Putin said a meaningful sentence, "The situation in eastern Ukraine has deteriorated." This shows that Putin is already preparing for a worse direction. On the 18th, Russia has begun to accept refugees from eastern Ukraine. Once the transfer work of civilians is over, it may be that combat nation will start to deal with Ukraine.

If Russia really dealt with Ukraine, will the United States dare to send troops? I'm afraid, US President Biden has said before that the United States will not send troops to Ukraine. At most, it is to provide weapons to Ukraine.

Therefore, the biggest purpose of the United States is to keep the crisis in Russia and Ukraine tense, but it will not be broken. This will keep Europe nervous. On the 18th, U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin spoke with the Russian Secretary of Defense on the phone, calling for slowing down the Ukrainian crisis and solving the problem through diplomatic means. It is obvious that the United States does not want to break the deadlock.

03 Russia assembles an army of 200,000?

U.S. Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation to Europe Carpenter gave an introduction to the tension in the military standoff between Russia and Ukraine on the 18th. He claimed that according to the US estimates, Russia may have gathered 169,000 to 19,000 troops in and around Ukraine.

Against this background, US President Biden said on the 18th that he believes Russian President Putin "has decided to invade Ukraine", but there is still room for diplomatic mediation. He once again predicted that Russia would take action in the next few days. "There is reason to believe that the Russian army is preparing for an invasion and is likely to attack Ukraine next week, with the target of Kiev ."

NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg said on the evening of the 18th that Russia has assembled 150,000 soldiers on the Ukrainian border, and Europe is facing the "largest military agglomeration" since the Cold War.

Stoltenberg said in an interview with German TV channel ZDF that day that (Russia's move) has far exceeded military exercises. He said, "Russia can attack Ukraine without warning.

Also, according to United Nations , as tensions caused by the Ukrainian crisis continue to escalate, UN Secretary-General Guterres 18 said in a speech to leaders of the world at the Munich Security Conference in Germany that he still believes that the military conflict in Europe "will not happen". If it happens, "it will be disastrous."

Guterres said that it is time to "seriously ease" the crisis.At present, hostile shelling activities in eastern Ukraine have surged, and Russian troops are also gathering in the surrounding areas of the country's borders.

Guterres stressed that "there is no choice but to diplomacy. All problems, including the most difficult ones, must be solved through a diplomatic framework."

Guterres said that today's threat to global security is "more complex than during the Cold War, and may be at a higher level", and that all parties should "use their rhetoric with extreme caution."