Judging from the current reliance on the economy of China and the United States, as well as the size and status of China and the United States in the world, it is no longer possible for China and the United States to fight a "full-out Cold War" similar to the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. However, judging from the recent actions of the United States, the United States is preparing to fight a "technology Cold War " with China. This "local Cold War" deserves special attention.
Similar to the US and the Soviet Union's "national cold war" is too low
01. The United States will not fight a large-scale trade war with China in the short term - economy and trade will not become a breakthrough for the United States;
Recently, the United States' trade policy toward China seems contradictory on the surface, but in fact it makes sense. U.S. Trade Representative Dai Qi said that the United States will exempt some Chinese goods from tariffs. However, the US government did not immediately come up with a list of exemptions, but could only determine the specific list of exemptions for tariffs after meeting with senior Chinese personnel.
Judging from Dai Qi's current speech, Dai Qi himself agrees with doing this. Because the tariffs imposed on many Chinese goods during the Trump administration were eventually passed on to American companies, which ultimately weakened the market competitiveness of American companies. At the same time, after the trade war began, soybean prices for American farmers fell to the lowest level in 10 years, which greatly affected agricultural production in the Midwest.
Biden An official within the administration said after Dai Qi that " China may not change at all."
The Sino-US trade war is getting stronger and stronger when it comes to China. This is what makes the United States most troublesome at the moment. Dai Qi himself also said that the United States will focus on enhancing the United States' own competitiveness in the future. For example, improving the United States' infrastructure capabilities and strengthening the United States' new energy industry will be the next breakthrough for the United States to replace economic and trade and choose to compete with China.
02. China needs chip , and the United States also needs chips - whoever masters the chips will be able to seize the next world-class industrial trend;
China has promoted the popularization of mobile Internet in the past few years with the massive popularity of 4G technology and smartphones, and finally formed an industrial trend and created a lot of social value and jobs. Now, the United States is also trying to do such things, but it has focused on industries such as new energy vehicles.
For the United States, although the market share of traditional fuel vehicles is still large, it is gradually taking a "downhill". Instead of continuing to compete with traditional fuel vehicle "experts" such as Germany in this field, it is better to switch directly to new energy vehicles. Those who are not familiar with new energy vehicles may not understand the tricks, so I will give a brief introduction.
The core of new energy vehicles is not electric motors and batteries, but various intelligent supporting systems. For example, various hardware facilities that can be connected to the smart center of the car, just like smart phones controlling smart homes, one of the major attractions of new energy vehicles is that new energy vehicles can become the "smart core".
In addition, the large-scale promotion of new energy vehicles also requires the support of the national power grid and a large number of new jobs, which has created many new jobs. The "big infrastructure" plan that the United States has been unable to promote has considerable content, which is related to new energy vehicles.
So, the key to new energy vehicles is chips, which is something that both China and the United States care about. As long as you master the chips, even if the trend of new energy vehicles is not promoted, you can create a "smart core" in other fields.
For China, as long as it masters the chips, China will be able to capture the next industry trend and enhance its industry voice and pricing power. For the United States, as long as it controls the chip, no matter what "smart core" China wants to build, it requires the consent of the United States, otherwise it will not be able to do it.
03. The United States’ "technology cold war" - Taiwan Province cannot protect TSMC . China should strive for TSMC to avoid being mastered by the United States;
Personally believe that the purpose of the United States-EU Trade and Technical Committee (TTC) threatens to "stop China's innovation" is difficult to achieve, because there are not many countries that need to purchase high-end industrial products on a large scale, and China is the main force. The United States is unwilling to sell it, China can buy it with EU , and vice versa. As for whether neither side is willing to sell it to China, it is impossible. It is just a wait-for-money.
This alliance seems to me to be a joke
There are many companies in the EU nowadays. In fact, the United States does not need to buy it, but China needs to buy it. If the EU is really determined to form a so-called "stop Chinese innovation" alliance with the United States, it must be prepared to take away the market share in China by the United States, just like Australia.
The United States is currently obviously planning to fight a "technology cold war" against China. Winning the EU is one of the steps, with the goal of "completely cutting" the development of the European and American high-tech circle with China, so that China can only buy finished products and not get technology. Another step is to control chip manufacturers such as , Samsung , and TSMC. This is what it means recently to ask Samsung and TSMC to hand over confidential data within 45 days.
Judging from the reaction of the Taiwan Provincial authorities, the Taiwan Provincial authorities currently do not firmly uphold TSMC's idea. The Taiwan Provincial authorities even said that this was a "voluntary act" that directly allowed a TSMC company to confront the United States on its own.
Currently, TSMC can produce 7 nanometers and below 7 nanometers on hand with a total of 55 EUV lithography machines . If we can master these lithography machines, it will be of great help to us break through the "technology cold war" in the United States.
There are two ways for us to fight for TSMC. The first is to directly regain Taiwan by force and take TSMC into our hands. The second type is to strive for TSMC to increase investment and construction in the mainland market. After all, even if you move to the United States, TSMC has no hope of growing bigger. Alstom in France is the lesson of the past. To develop in the mainland is TSMC's best choice at present.
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