Forex Sky Eye APP News: During the North American trading session overnight (9th), the US dollar index hit a low since September 2018 to 94.63, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to zero within a few months. The safe-haven currencies yen and Swiss franc rose sharply, with the yen jumping nearly 3% to a three-year high.
[International News]
S&P 500 index triggered US stock for the second circuit breaker in history
On Monday (9th), the North American trading session was at the beginning of the trading session, the S&P 500 index fell 7% within the day, triggering the first circuit breaker mechanism. Three months after the " Black Monday " in 1987, the United States launched a circuit breaker mechanism, which was divided into three levels of 7%, 13%, and 20%. In the US stock market for more than 30 years, it only once actually triggered a circuit breaker: on October 27, 1997, the Dow Jones Industrial Index plummeted 7.18%, closing at 7161.15 points, the largest drop since 1915.
Eurozone 3 Sentix Investor Confidence Index recorded a seven-year low in March
Survey results show that euro zone investors' confidence fell to a new low since April 2013 as health incidents increased investors' concerns about a weak economic outlook. Specific data shows that the euro zone's Sentix investor confidence index in March was -17.1, expectation -11.1, and the previous value was 5.2. Sentix Chairman Manfred Huebner said investors are preparing for a long-term economic weakness and investors want to see "strong signals in monetary policy." The ECB will announce its interest rate decision this Thursday, and if no action is taken, the moment of the "Lehman crisis" will not be surprising. ECBWATCH shows that the euro zone currency market has now fully digested the ECB's expectations of three interest rate cuts before October, compared with less than two expected a week ago.
The Russian Central Bank suspended foreign exchange purchases due to sharp drop in oil prices
The Russian Central Bank announced on the 9th that due to the sharp fluctuations in international oil prices, the bank decided to stop purchasing foreign exchange in the Russian market within the next 30 days to maintain Russian financial stability. The Russian Central Bank issued an announcement on its website saying that it will judge the financial market this month and decide when to resume foreign exchange purchases based on this. At the same time, the bank is "tracking and observing changes in the financial market and is preparing to take other supplementary measures to maintain Russian financial stability."
Russia may use the national sovereign wealth fund to buy rubles to support its exchange rate
As Saudi Arabia and Russia are unable to reach an agreement on oil production cuts, global crude oil prices plummeted, the Russian ruble fell to a four-year low, and Russia may use the $150 billion national sovereign wealth fund to buy roubles to support its exchange rate. The Russian Central Bank issued an announcement stating that the central bank will stop purchasing foreign exchange in accordance with government budget regulations. The original intention of the relevant regulations is to reduce the impact of the sharp fluctuations in oil prices on the ruble. Russia's Ministry of Finance said that if oil prices remain below $42.40 per barrel, it may start selling foreign exchange, with the size of the sell-off based on the balance of the budget.
The plummeting oil price has driven a sharp rise in risk aversion sentiment. The foreign exchange market has experienced a huge shock.
. Against the backdrop of the plunge of international crude oil futures prices, the foreign exchange market was shocking on Monday. The US dollar fell below 102 against the Japanese yen, with a daily decline of 3.5%; the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar fell about 5% at one time, and the Canadian dollar fell more than 2%, the largest drop since 2016; the US dollar index once broke through the 95 mark, and the euro hit a high level since June 2019.
Japan's fourth quarter GDP showed the largest shrinkage in six years
Japan's economy in the fourth quarter of 2019 was larger than the initial estimated shrinkage. As the coronavirus epidemic is intensifying, people are more worried about the possibility of Japan's recession in the first quarter. During the Asian trading session, the US dollar fell 1% against the yen, hitting its last three-year low to 104.28 at the beginning of the session. Data released by the Japanese Cabinet Office showed that Japan's GDP fell 7.1% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, surpassing the previous report of 6.3%, the largest decline since the second quarter of 2014. Capital expenditure fell 4.6% month-on-month, surpassing the 3.7% reported previously. Private consumption fell by 2.8% month-on-month, basically consistent with the initial value.
[Key focus within the day]
15:45 French January industrial output monthly rate
18:00 US February NFIB small business confidence index
18:00 EIA's fourth quarter GDP annual rate correction value
18:00 EIA's fourth quarter quarterly adjustment of employment quarterly rate
24:00 EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook report
