At the beginning of the Asian market on October 20 (Thursday), U.S. oil trading was around $84.76 per barrel; oil prices rose more than 2.5% on Wednesday, as cautious attitude towards tightening supply offsets uncertain demand and the negative impact of the United States' release of more crude oil from its reserves. U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell last week, and U.S. diesel demand surged, while the U.S. had only 25 days of diesel supply, the lowest since 2008.
focuses on the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States as of the week ending October 15, and the speeches of officials from the Federal Reserve ; NYMEX New York crude oil November futures was affected by the transfer of positions and monthly exchanges, and the last on-site transaction was completed at 2:30 on October 21, and the last electronic trading transaction was completed at 5:00 a.m., please pay attention to the announcement of the expiration of the trading venue to control risks. In addition, the expiration date of US oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day ahead of NYMEX official, please pay more attention.
Factors influencing oil prices
[Feder Beige Book says companies are more pessimistic about the outlook]
In a Beige Book report on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve said in a Beige Book report that U.S. economic activity has expanded moderately in recent weeks, although some regions have stagnated and several other regions have declined. The report shows that companies are becoming more pessimistic about the outlook. In addition, the Beige Book pointed out that inflationary pressure has eased and is expected to continue to ease, which is a key "soft data" that shows that the Federal Reserve's radical rate hike in may have begun to reverse the inflation trend.
[ Biden announced that it will release another 15 million barrels of oil reserves, working hard to fight high oil prices before the midterm elections]
U.S. President Biden announced a plan to sell 15 million barrels of crude oil from the national emergency reserves and start replenishing reserves, trying to curb high gasoline prices before the midterm elections on November 8. Biden also said that he would replenish strategic oil reserves in the next few years. He is currently criticized by people who accused him of using reserves for political reasons rather than for emergencies.
[The decline in new home starts in the United States in September exceeded expectations]
The decline in housing construction in the United States in September fell 8.1%, exceeding expectations; the number of new home starts in single-family residential buildings fell 4.7%, with an annual rate of 892,000 units, falling to the lowest level in more than two years. These data show that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike continues to have an impact on the housing market.
[ US bond yield rise overshadows the impact of corporate good performance US stock closed lower]
US stock market ended on Wednesday and closed lower for two consecutive days, because Abbott stock price fell, and US bond yields rose, weakening the momentum brought by the current financial report season to the stock market and overshadowed the boost brought by the soaring stock price of Netflix ( Netflix).
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest in more than 14 years as weak property data hardly changed expectations that the Fed would continue to raise aggressive interest rates. The rise in yields weighed on interest rate-sensitive stocks, such as real estate stocks, which fell 2.56%, making it the worst performer of the day, with large growth stocks such as Microsoft and Amazon , which were also affected. Energy stocks were the only S&P sector to rise, with rising at 2.94%; Abbott plummeting 6.5% after the company reported lower-than-expected growth in international medical device sales.
However, Netflix's stock price jumped 13.1%, becoming the best performing S&P 500 component, after the company announced it attracted 2.4 million new users worldwide in the third quarter, more than double the estimate, and the company expects to add 4.5 million new users by the end of the year. IGNorthAmerica CEO JJ Kinahan said, "The impact of bond markets is too great. It's a pity to see good quarterly reports being wasted. In the end, it will be performance driving the stock market, but when they are covered up by other factors, it's difficult to generate optimism, but ultimately good returns will drive stocks higher. The question is to what extent the macroeconomic situation will continue to damage corporate earnings."
Fed officials' views on the need for aggressive rate hikes to solve the inflation problem are basically consistent. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Kashkari (Neel Kashkari) said on Wednesday that demand in the U.S. job market remains strong and core inflation pressure may not have reached its peak.
In the Beige Book report on Wednesday, the U.S. economic activity has expanded moderately in recent weeks, although it has remained flat in some regions and has declined in several other regions, with the report showing that businesses are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the outlook. It is widely expected that the Fed will raise interest rates for the fourth consecutive 75 basis points at its November meeting.
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that the decline in housing construction in the United States exceeded expectations in September, and the number of newly started single-family residential buildings fell to its lowest level in more than two years. These data indicate that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike continues to have an impact on the housing market.
PHLX real estate stock index fell by 4.50%, another sector unlikely to help the stock market reverse its months of decline, with the three major U.S. indexes still falling into a bear market.
Refinitiv data shows that the third-quarter profit growth forecast for the S&P 500 component companies rose to 3% from 2.8% on Tuesday, still far below the 11.1% increase forecast in early July.
Electric car manufacturer Tesla rose 0.84% before the financial report was announced after the close, and the market focus on whether weak demand began to have an impact on the automotive industry. Tesla fell 3.94% after the market closed, as the company's third-quarter revenue fell below expectations.
Positive factors affecting oil prices
[U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels last week]
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that U.S. crude oil inventories fell last week because refineries operated above the average level of the same period, and demand improved compared with the previous week.
In the week ending October 14, crude oil inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels to 437.4 million barrels. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected an increase of 1.4 million barrels.
refinery continues to operate with a high capacity utilization rate. Refining volume fell by 133,000 barrels per day last week, reducing refinery capacity utilization by 0.4 percentage points to 89.5%. That level remains the highest in 19 years, according to EIA data, as refineries ramp up production to compensate for low stocks across the country.
EIA said crude oil inventories at Cushing Delivery Center, Oklahoma, increased by 583,000 barrels last week. U.S. gasoline inventories fell by 114,000 barrels last week. Distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, rose by 124,000 barrels to 106.2 million barrels. "The distillate oil situation, we pushed the crisis back at least another week later. Inventory has increased slightly, at least we are not at the 17-year low, but that may happen in the coming weeks," said Robert Yawger, head of energy futures at Mizuho Bank in New York.
U.S. refined oil supply has risen sharply, reaching 20.8 million barrels per day in the past week, although the four-week average still shows demand is down 2.4% from the same period last year.
reported on the 19th local time that diesel demand in the United States surges, while the United States has only 25 days of diesel supply, the lowest since 2008. According to reports, diesel is widely used in heating and trucking, and the diesel shortage may further push up prices.
[The U.S. says the measures to impose a price cap on Russian oil will not be copied to OPEC oil producers]
A US Treasury official told Reuters that the new measures to limit Russian oil sales at forced low prices will not be copied to OPEC oil producers. The official added that the U.S. had communicated with representatives of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), assured them that the oil price cap would not be implemented due to its production cuts. This speech may help ease the dispute between the United States and Saudi Arabia .
[ Putin strengthens Russia's combat layout, the battle of Khlsson in Ukraine is about to begin]
Russian President Putin ordered the nationwide effort to support the Ukrainian war on Wednesday, and the authorities in the southern strategic location Khlsson are preparing to carry out large-scale evacuation to deal with the upcoming fierce battle. Putin announced on Wednesday that martial law was imposed in four newly annexed areas. Screens of Russian state television station show that people in Khlsong area evacuated by boat. Local government chief Vladimir Saldo said that 50,000 to 60,000 people will be evacuated in the next six days.
Overall, inventory declines and demand surges boost oil prices. The measures to impose a price cap on Russian oil will not be replicated to OPEC oil-producing countries. In addition, Putin strengthens Russia's combat layout, geopolitical uncertainty risks surge, and oil prices may fluctuate more in the short term.
This article is from Huitong.com
