Local time on October 19, 2022, London, UK, British Prime Minister Elizabeth Trass spoke at the Prime Minister's Q&A meeting in the House of Commons in London. Visual China Picture
On October 19th local time, British Home Secretary Suella Braverman resigned. Just five days ago, British Chancellor Kwoten was dismissed 38 days after taking office because of the issuance of the "mini budget". Braverman was the second senior Trass administration official to step down in less than a week.
htmlOn October 19th, opposition MPs said that Conservative Party forced some MPs in the party to vote for the government in Parliament. In addition, the current severe economic situation in the UK has brought greater pressure to Tras, who only took office as prime minister on September 6th. Some foreign media said that Tras is at risk of becoming the "short-lived" prime minister in British history.Director of the Center for European Studies at Fudan University and vice president of Chinese European Society said to The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) that as a key cabinet member, Brevorman's resignation "will undoubtedly have a relatively large impact on the Trass cabinet and whether Tras can continue to rule." It remains to be seen whether this incident will trigger a "resignation wave" in the British cabinet again, and the direction of British politics in the future still faces many uncertainties.
sunak supporters took over as Interior Minister
According to Reuters on October 19, Brevorman said she had violated government regulations and had to resign. She also expressed concern about the direction of the Trass government.
In a letter to Tras posted on Twitter, Braverman said she sent an official document to a council colleague through her personal email, which was a "technical violation of the rules" and therefore leaving was correct.
Brevorman also wrote that the administration has violated "a key commitment to voters" and she expressed "concern" about the way the government is heading.
After Tras took office as Prime Minister, the initial cabinet members were all members of the Conservative Party who supported the free market faction. But on October 14, Tras appointed Jeremy Hunter to replace Kwoten as British Chancellor of the Exchequer. Hunter supported Tras' opponent when he ran for British Prime Minister and former Chancellor Sunak. After Hunter took office, he revoked the previously announced "almost all" tax measures.
According to CNN, the British Prime Minister's Residence issued a tweet on the 19th that former British Minister of Transport Grant Shapps, who also supports Sunak, took over as Home Secretary. According to the British "Media Association", Shapps publicly questioned earlier this week how long the Prime Minister's term can last, saying that if Tras wants to continue to take power, he still needs to "climb Mount Everest ".
Conservatives are accused of forcing MPs to vote for the government
According to the BBC (BBC) report on October 19, the British House of Commons encountered chaos during the vote on the hydraulic fracking ban on shale gas mining that day, which angered many Conservative MPs, which made Trass' situation even more uncertain.
According to Xinhua News Agency , the British government officially lifted the ban on shale gas production in September, which means that the ban on hydraulic fracking technology implemented by the UK since November 2019 has been lifted. The decision of
then caused a lot of controversy. According to the BBC and CNN, some opposition MPs claimed on October 19 that the British government forced some Conservative MPs to vote on the same day, forcing them to support the government, and Conservative MPs were "intimidated and roughly treated."
Opposition Labor MP Anna McMorrin wrote on Twitter that she saw a Conservative MP “with tears in her eyes” “being roughly dragged into the hall” to vote against the motion proposed by Labour to continue the ban on fracking technology.
Another opposition party Scotland National Party MP David Linden also tweeted that he saw "the deputy prime minister pulled up a hesitant Conservative MP and took him into the hall of the government." Linden called the scene "surprising".
Although a ministerial official denied the claims of opposition MPs, many Conservative MPs were angry that day and expressed disappointment with the Conservatives. According to the BBC, Conservative MP Charles Walker said in an interview that the situation at the scene was "a mess". Walker also said: "I expect the Prime Minister to resign soon because she is not qualified for her job." And the British government has "no way back."
Inflation rate reached a 40-year high
Since Tras came to power, the domestic economic situation in the UK has been turbulent. According to CNN on October 19, data released by the UK National Bureau of Statistics on the same day showed that the inflation rate in the UK rose to 10.1% in September, the same as the inflation rate in July, and higher than 9.9% from September 2021 to August 2022, reaching a 40-year high. Soaring food and energy prices have driven recent inflation in the UK.
The UK National Statistics Office said that food prices rose by 14.6% year-on-year, which is the biggest single factor driving inflation acceleration.
htmlOn November 3, the Bank of England Bank will hold a meeting to formulate interest rate policies, and the return of inflation in September to double-digits worried Bank of England . The bank's president Andrew Bailey said a "stronger response" may be needed to control the rise in prices.CNN pointed out in the report that the peak of the UK inflation rate may still arrive in the future. Dutch International Group (ING) believes that UK inflation may peak in October and begin to ease in 2023. However, energy prices remain a big unknown. According to previous reports, Hunter said on October 17 that the British government will end its large-scale energy price limit intervention in April next year, replacing it with a "undefined" plan, and the energy bills of many ordinary British households may soar again after that. US investment banking giant Goldman Sachs therefore warned that inflation in the UK may rise 11.9% year-on-year in April 2023 and "maintain a high level throughout 2023."
The candidate for the next Prime Minister is still unpredictable
On October 17 and 18, British polling agency YouGov conducted an impromptu investigation of 530 Conservative members. According to data released by YouGov's website on October 18, 55% of Conservative Party members believe that Tras should resign from the position of prime minister, and 38% hope that she will remain in office. Tras' current approval rating is approaching the approval rating before Johnson stepped down. At that time, 59% wanted Johnson to leave and 36% wanted him to stay.
In addition, 32% of respondents chose Johnson for the question of "If Tras resigns, who will most likely take over as prime minister". Sunak, who had previously lost to Trass in the Conservative Party leader election, is also a popular candidate, ranking second with a 23% approval rating. Wallace, the third-placed Secretary of Defense, received 10% support.
Ding Chun believes that Johnson has expressed his willingness to become Prime Minister again and has certain abilities and appeal, so Johnson has the possibility of returning. But he pointed out that if Tras stepped down, despite the high voice of polls, it is not easy for Johnson to make up his mind and go back to the forefront of the Conservative Party, compared with Conservatives such as Sunak and Hunter, the next Prime Minister, and the leader of the House of Commons, Penny Mordaunt.
According to Reuters on October 8, a survey conducted by YouGov from October 6 to 7 showed that the Labour Party’s approval rating was 52%, far higher than the Conservative Party’s 22%. When asked which party leader would be the best prime minister, Labour leader Kil Stamer led Trass' 13% with a 43% approval rating.
According to CCTV News, in the parliamentary inquiries on October 12, some Labor MPs pointed out that in the last two polls, 60% of the respondents expressed their hope that the UK would hold an election immediately. CNN pointed out in the report that if the British general election restarts, the Conservative Party will face a crushing defeat.
In this regard, Xin Hua, director of the European Research Center of Shanghai International Studies University, believes that the Conservative Party can maintain the ruling status of by the end of this year, "but it will not be certain next year." "When public opinion accumulates to a certain extent and domestic criticism of the ruling party and the ruling cabinet reaches a certain extent," the UK will disband the parliament and re-election.
