British Prime Minister Tras is in a crisis of trust. How long can she last, who is considered "on-job but has no power"?
On the 18th local time, according to a survey conducted by polling agency YouGov earlier this week, 55% of British Conservative Party members believe that Tras should resign, and the proportion of support for his retention is as low as 38%. 39% of the voters who voted for her in the Conservative leader's campaign this summer also changed their minds.
Tras hinted in an interview late at night on the 17th that she would not resign. She said she wanted to "sorry for the mistakes she made", but said she would "stick with it" and would "lead the Conservatives to the next general election."
Postal 1Admiral Simon Usherwood, a professor of political science at the Open University of the UK, told First Financial reporter that Tras had to reverse her core economic policies, and it is hard to say that she is still playing the role of leading the British government.
" But compared to letting her continue to serve, the current problem is that it is difficult for the Conservatives to find a replacement. " Ashwood believes.
"Trasse's departure is just a matter of time "
18, when asked whether the cabinet minister hinted at the cabinet meeting that day that Tras should resign, a spokesperson for Downing Street answered "No". In response to whether the cabinet ministers expressed support for Tras, a Downing Street spokesman said: "I think the ministers are clearly immersed in the discussions on preparing for the medium-term fiscal plan."
market seems to accept the British government's "knowing mistakes can be corrected". On the 17th, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunt said that he would overturn almost all tax measures announced in the "Small Mini Budget" three weeks ago and would cut the deadline for the energy price ceiling.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) affirmed the changes in the UK. An IMF spokesman said the 180-degree turn in the UK government policy will help "better adjust fiscal and monetary policy in the fight against inflation ." As of press time, the exchange rate of pound against the US dollar was 1.1343. Although it has depreciated by 16.18% this year, it has also rebounded by more than 6% compared with the low at the end of September.
So far, five Conservative MPs have publicly demanded that Tras resign.
Former Housing Secretary Michael Gove, who has entered the cabinet many times in the past twelve years, said that the key question about Tras' resignation is "when" rather than "whether".
Kent University Professor of Political Science Matthew Goodwin also believes that Trass' departure is only a matter of time. He said: "I don't think she has any credibility within the Conservative Party, and it's the same in the UK. And it's irreversible."
Ashwood said that even with the changes this week, it would be difficult for Tras to rebuild enough credibility among the Conservative Party, let alone public reaction. "So you can imagine that Tras' departure is a matter of sooner or later ." he said. Mathieu Savary, chief European strategist at investment consulting firm BCA Research, told the First Financial reporter that Tras is a non-election-general "take over prime minister", and even within the Conservative Party, there are differences in her views on her. Tras has limited political capital, and any further mistakes will leave investors skeptical of whether she can lead the Conservatives to win the general election in January 2025.
Who can take over
According to a poll conducted by YouGov on the 17th and released on the 18th, 77% of the British disapprove of the Conservative-led government, which is the highest proportion in 11 years of tracking the survey. 87% of respondents believe that the current government’s handling of the economy is a big blow to the Conservative Party, which has always focused on fiscal discipline.
Savari said that since Brexit , the global investment community has been skeptical about the economic leadership of the Conservative Party. The current tax cut plan launched by the UK government has no financial support and lacks scrutiny from the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR), which has caused these concerns to only increase.
For example, before the UK government withdraws tax cuts, the IMF severely criticized the UK's fiscal plan and urged it to "consider providing more targeted support and reevaluate tax measures".
IMF former deputy director of the Ministry of Middle East and Central Asia said that the IMF rarely made such statements on G7 (G7) economy in history.
Can the British Conservative Party replace Tras? According to the party's rules, a new prime minister enjoys protection from impeachment within 12 months of taking office. But the 1922 committee representing the Conservative backbenchers has the right to re-formulate relevant rules. If more than half of Conservative MPs submit a distrust of Truss, the 1922 committee could set emergency rules that would allow MPs to vote on impeachment of Truss.
According to British media reports, 1922 committee chairman Graham Brady has received as many as 100 letters calling on Tras to step down. During the regular meeting at 4 p.m. local time on Wednesday, the management of the 1922 committee may discuss the issue of distrust. However, British Defense Minister James Heappey said in an interview on the 18th that although some Conservative MPs in Parliament have irreconcilable opposition to the current government, "most colleagues have realized that in the past few months and even a year, we have experienced anger at Boris Johnson , which has severely divided our party and we cannot overturn the decision we just made in the leadership election." YouGov's poll also showed that Conservative party members believe that if Tras stepped down, Conservative MPs should directly agree on a candidate to replace her rather than hold a new campaign.
According to British media reports, former British Chancellor Sunak and former Defense Secretary Penny Mordaunt are popular candidates to replace Tras, both of which are also strong opponents of Tras in the recent Conservative Leadership campaign. However, although Sunak's economic policy can stand the test, he is not favored by Johnson supporters.
