On October 20th local time, , British Prime Minister , Elizabeth Tras announced his resignation and became the shortest-term prime minister in British history.
Tras government previously launched a tax cut that the media called "mini budget" has triggered a strong negative reaction in the market. The market is worried that this radical tax cut will cause debt risks to the UK government.
Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of China Institute of International Studies, said in an interview with the Beijing News reporter that the "mini budget" is the fuse of the political crisis of Tras, and the party division is the real reason for forcing Tras to resign. The frequent "change of phases" in the UK shows that the country's political struggle is becoming increasingly fierce.
On October 20, 2022 local time, British Prime Minister Tras delivered a resignation speech at 10 Downing Street, London. Photo/Visual China
"Mini Budget" triggers the political crisis in Tras?
Beijing News: Is "mini budget" the main reason why Tras has come to the resignation?
Cui Hongjian: "mini budget" is the fuse of the political crisis in Tras. The "mini budget" was an obvious policy mistake. After triggering market turmoil and criticism of public opinion, Tras's reaction was slow. It seemed that she might not have expected the market reaction to be so bad.
To a certain extent, this crisis is also an extension of the contradictions within Conservative Party . Previously, during the party's election campaign, a faction represented by Sunak believed that inflation should be dealt with first, and tax cuts cannot be reduced until inflation is curbed. The "mini budget" reflects policy propositions that are opposite to Sunak's faction. So when the "mini budget" triggered market turmoil, the faction represented by Sunak in the Conservative Party gathered to put pressure on Tras. So I think the "mini budget" is just the fuse, and the party division is the real reason for forcing Tras to resign.
Beijing News: Tras also stated that she was a "warrior" the day before, and she did not become a "escaper at the last minute". She resigned the next day. Why did she change so quickly?
Cui Hongjian: The main reason for the transformation of Trass was the pressure within the party. There are two options when Tras is under pressure. One is to voluntarily resign, which can still retain some decency. If Tlas insists on resigning, she will face "rebellion" within the party. At that time, more and more Conservative MPs were openly opposing Tras, and the resignation of ministers occurred. In the future, there might be embarrassing situations such as cabinet resignations. So after weighing the trade-offs, Tras chose a relatively decent way to step down.
Beijing News: Tras just admitted that the "mini budget" was a mistake a few days ago, and apologized for it, and said that he had corrected the error and wanted to continue moving forward. Why didn’t she get the opportunity to “know your mistakes and correct them”?
Cui Hongjian: I think the key is the timing of admitting mistakes. After the "mini budget" triggered a negative response, Tras immediately took a tough position and defended the policy. She did not think the "mini budget" was wrong.
Then, when the storm fermented into a political crisis, Tras did not choose to take responsibility, but instead pushed the responsibility to the then Chancellor of the Chancellor Kwoten. This approach not only did not stop the crisis, but further burned the fire to the Conservative Party. For members of the Conservative Party, Trass's approach is not good. Kwoten was a political amateur before, and it was Tras who personally entrusted him with important responsibilities. Now that Tras has turned the blame on Kwoten, it means that Tras either fails to supervise the people or deliberately passes the blame.
Therefore, Tras lost the opportunity to admit his mistakes and correct him one after another. It was not until Hunter took over as Chancellor of the Exchequer and abandoned most of the "mini budget" policy that Tras came out to admit his mistakes and apologize. At this time, she had lost the opportunity and the trust of the party elites in her.
On September 6, 2022, British Prime Minister Trass and her husband Hugh O'Leary waved at Downing Street .Photo/Visual China
Who may become the next British Prime Minister?
Beijing News: Former British Exchequer Sunak, former Prime Minister Johnson and others are all popular candidates for the next British Prime Minister. Who do you prefer to be the next Prime Minister?
Cui Hongjian: In the previous party elections, Sunak was Tras' main opponent. The main difference between the two is that Tras advocates immediate tax cuts, Sunak emphasized that the economy should be stabilized first, and then tax cuts should be considered on the basis of stability. Now, Trass's policy has proven to be a failure. Then, at least in terms of economic policy, no one within the Conservative Party will be able to challenge Sunak's proposition in the short term.
But candidates are not only economic policies, but also coordination capabilities, personnel relations and other factors. Sunak’s weakness is that his birth background does not conform to the traditions of Conservative politicians. In addition, his political foundation is not deep. Even if Sunak can come to power, he may be more of using his economic expertise and playing the role of "fire-fighting captain".
There are also calls within the Conservative Party to return Johnson. Johnson has the foundation and coordination ability, and also leads Brexit and other political legacy, but his problem is that he has a scandal and anti-Johnson force within the Conservative Party is also strong. In addition, candidates such as Secretary of Defense Ben Wallace also have their own advantages and disadvantages. The candidates who can win in the end need to show their abilities and expertise, and to balance factions and bridge differences.
Beijing News: After former British Prime Minister Johnson resigned, the Conservative Party election lasted for about two months. Why did the Conservative Party only take one week to elect the leader of the party?
Cui Hongjian: The last internal election of the Conservative Party was followed by the election procedures, with several rounds of voting, including primary elections, runoffs and other rounds of voting. This time, the Conservative Party did not follow the party election procedures, but instead relied on the party's elite to form an internal consensus and introduce a party leader in an incompletely open process.
The advantage of this approach is that it is short time. If the Conservatives want to maintain continuity of governance after experiencing the Telas crisis, they need to fight and decide quickly as the next prime minister candidate. But this also brings a problem. When Tras took office, he was criticized for not being elected by the national election and had poor legality. Then, the next Prime Minister did not even have a party election process, and his legality of governing would only be worse than Tras.
On October 5, 2022 local time, British Prime Minister Tras delivered a keynote speech at the Conservative Party Annual Meeting held at the Birmingham International Conference Center. Picture/Visual China
Will political turmoil affect the UK's response to the crisis?
Beijing News: Currently, British society is facing many difficulties such as energy crisis , cost of living crisis, etc. Will political turmoil affect the ability of British society to respond to crises?
Cui Hongjian: Political turmoil will affect the confidence of the people and the market. Tras took office and introduced policies in anticipation, but soon failed and finally resigned. Such a dazzling process would make the people and the market lose confidence in the ruling party. If the next prime minister comes to power, if the problem still cannot be solved, then social dissatisfaction will rise further.
At the same time, the frequent changes of prime ministers in the UK also shows that the political struggle in the UK is becoming increasingly fierce. Politicians may focus too much on political struggle rather than on formulating good policies to help Britain find a way out. Such political struggles will have a great negative impact on British society.
Beijing News: Some British political observers are keen to compare Trass and Thatcher. When they came to power, they were both in times of crisis in the UK. Both of them also proposed a liberal plan of "low taxes and small government", but why are the actual performances of the two so different?
Cui Hongjian: First of all, the two have different backgrounds in the era. During Thatcher's era, Britain's economic vitality and financial strength were stronger. The UK economy is weak now, and its comprehensive national strength is incomparable to that of Thatcher's period. Especially after Brexit, both domestic and international communities have doubts about the prospects of the UK.
In addition, although Thatcher also implemented a tax reduction policy under the banner of liberalism, her tax reduction has more strategies and skills. For example, when she reduced her income tax, she increased the VAT. Tras cut taxes in all aspects as soon as he started, and with the weak fiscal and economic conditions in the UK, it is difficult to accept this "hard medicine". The market is having doubts at this time. After a significant tax cut, what support should the government finance rely on? So the market quickly responded negatively.
Furthermore, in terms of political quality, Trass cannot compare with Thatcher. Thatcher at least did not show obvious cater to certain specific groups. Tras is different. She was once a "European Party", but when the conservative hike revived in British politics, Tras catered to this more conservative group and became a staunch supporter of "Brexit" and the standard bearer of "European skeptics".
Beijing News reporter Chen Yikai
Editor Fan Yijing Proofreading Wu Xingfa
