According to the latest Taoyuan mayoral election poll released by TVBS, the Kuomintang Zhang Shanzheng is 38%, the Democratic Progressive Party Zheng Yunpeng 27%, the non-party member Zheng Baoqing 26%, and the Taiwan People's Party Lai Xiangling 5%, and another 24% have not yet decided. Former "legislator" Shen Fuxiong said that the ethnic group changes the most from the age of 20 to 29, with Zheng Yunpeng losing 12% and Zhang Shanzheng losing 9%, while the undecided young people increased by 13%.
Regarding the mayoral election in Taoyuan, Shen Fuxiong said on the political commentary program "Shaokang War Room" on the 21st that so far, all Taoyuan mayor polls have shown that Zhang Shanzheng and Zheng Yunpeng are incompatible. Former "legislator" Guo Zhengliang said that he had read several polls, but the results were comparable. There is a gap between the two of them in the "TVBS" poll, which seems to be similar to the last time; people in the green camp said it was an institutional effect.
Shen Fuxiong then pointed out that the size of the sample section of "TVBS" is 23% of the DPP and 21% of the KMT, but 12% of the DPP is actually 12%. Do you have so many people in the DPP? He is a little doubtful, because the results of partitioning and age, and cross-analysis, the number of each sub-item is very small, and the error will become larger, so don't over-interpret it.
Shen Fuxiong analyzed that the ethnic group changes the most from the age of 20 to 29 because Zheng Yunpeng dropped from 30% to 18%, 12%. At the same time, Zhang Shanzheng also dropped from 39% to 30%, 9%, one dropped 12% and the other dropped 9%, so Zhang Shanzheng should not be too happy too early, because the undecided young people increased from 17% to 30%, up 13%.
Shen Fuxiong pointed out that after this month of election campaign, the young people began to shake their hearts. The support of young people of Zhang Shanzheng and Zheng Yunpeng has declined. Young people will now start to think about who they should support, so they began to give up a little, and both of them gave up, but they don’t know who they want to protect. So in the next more than a month, Zhang Shanzheng and Zheng Yunpeng can focus on the young people.
Shen Fuxiong believes that neutral voters are also very important. No matter what elections, those who can win neutral voters will definitely win in the end. (Xue Yang/Edited)
