This article is completely translated from teslarati.com, author Randell Suba, original address https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-battery-day-doomsday-legacy-carmakers-electric/.
According to the preview of Musk at the fourth quarter financial report meeting, Tesla will hold a "Battery Day" event in April. Musk said that there will be some "exciting and shocking" stories to tell everyone. These statements not only attracted the anger of competitors in the electric vehicle industry, but also may be a disaster for traditional car manufacturers that are constantly catching up with Tesla .
For the throne of electric cars, the battery is the foundation stone, and in terms of battery and energy consumption, Tesla is currently the closest character to the throne. This has been proven by many review agencies, such as Consumer Report. Even Tesla's competitors have understood this from various aspects such as hardware, software, battery technology, etc.
The upcoming Tesla battery day will portray this fact more clearly. Tesla may deepen the gap in technological leadership and once again distinguish it from other rivals. Tesla is not only a manufacturer of Model 3, Model Y, and Cybertruck, but also an energy company.
battery is the most expensive component in electric cars, the same for Tesla and other electric car manufacturers. With the high cost of batteries, car companies cannot reduce the price of the entire vehicle, and it will be difficult to convert to the goal of manufacturing zero-emission vehicles.
According to reports, Tesla is implementing a plan code-named "Roadrunner", committed to reducing the average cost of mass production of power batteries to US$100/KWh. Rumors say Tesla has established a pioneering production line at its Fremont factory to manufacture new batteries based on self-developed high-end technologies, which are said to be from battery manufacturer Maxwell, which Tesla acquired last year.
If the battery cost can really be less than $100/KWh, then Tesla cars will have a price advantage even without subsidies from the US government.
In addition to the "Roadrunner" plan, Tesla has now already competed for battery and has gained an advantage through cooperation. Panasonic has worked for a long time to help them produce batteries in their super factory in Nevada; Tesla has also successfully cooperated with LG and Ningde eras in China.
In the last decade, the price of power batteries has dropped significantly. According to Bloomberg , last year alone, the cost of power batteries fell by 13%. Starting from US$1,100/KWh in 2010, it has dropped all the way to US$156/KWh in 2019. Bloomberg predicts that the average global power battery price will be reduced to $100/KWh in 2023.
If Tesla reaches the $100 tipping point ahead of other rivals, this will give them an unimaginable lead, along with amazing profits.
In addition to cheaper batteries, the larger battery production scale is also a key factor in bringing Cybertruck and SEMI trucks into reality.
"Our primary goal now is to increase battery production capacity. Because this is the most basic link. If your battery production capacity is not large enough, you can only produce one model and then produce a new model. You are not actually producing more electric vehicles. We must ensure that the battery production capacity continues to grow rapidly, while working hard to reduce the average battery cost per KWh." - Musk said this at the fourth quarter financial report meeting.
After years of research and development, experiments and cooperation, Tesla has produced sufficiently excellent batteries. They also invested a lot of money and resources to ensure they could continue to lead. We can see that Tesla can now build the best SUV with the best energy consumption performance. The Model Y, which is about to be mass-produced, has an EPA range of 315 miles (507) kilometers (converted to NEDC operating conditions exceeding 610 kilometers), while the much larger battery Porsche Taycan (Model Y 75KWh, Taycan 93KWh) has only 204 miles of EPA range.
With the new battery technology recently acquired through mergers and acquisitions, Tesla is likely to continue to dominate the battery market and continuously polish the technology to perfection.Maxwell has the ability to manufacture battery components and supercapacitor , and it is only a matter of time before Tesla can use these capabilities.
When asked about Maxwell's supercapacitor technology, Musk said at the fourth quarter financial report meeting: "This is a very important piece of our puzzle."
Musk attaches great importance to the acquisition of Maxwell. "This is a great thing. Maxwell has a lot of technology in hand. If it can be used correctly, I think it can produce huge results."
There are rumors that Tesla will integrate Maxwell's supercapacitor technology and dry electrode technology. If this is true, it means that the battery will charge faster, have higher energy density, and have higher durability.
Understanding what works for electric cars and what is useless is a major reason why Tesla maintains its advantages. The best battery management system on the market at present allows Tesla to make electric cars that are not the most efficient and are one of the most efficient. With the dual advantages of hardware and software, "Tesla becomes a battery supplier" is obviously not whimsical.
Tesla's competitors, such as Audi and Jaguar , have recently exposed the problem of insufficient battery supply (Jagu has even partially discontinued I-Pace), and they all rely on LG Chem's battery supply. Although Tesla also needs partners like Panasonic/LG/CATL, they are constantly trying to develop new batteries themselves, and it is likely to be converted into Tesla's independent new business.
"Tesla supplies batteries and powertrains to electric cars from other auto manufacturers. This idea may become a sustainable reality. This is something we are willing to make open and honest. We are absolutely happy to provide supply batteries and powertrains to other auto companies" - from Musk.
Tesla recently announced the public recruitment of battery technology engineers and assembly R&D engineers, which in some ways means they are planning to build a whole battery production line themselves. But surely, the new generation of batteries will be used first in their own models. However, once Tesla can fully meet its own needs, it is not difficult to imagine what kind of number one player they will play in the global supply chain.
Whether Tesla will announce cheaper batteries, more advanced batteries, or announce bigger moves, the battery day in April will be worth waiting for the whole world. For other car companies, they will stop everything they have to listen to what Musk and his team say. After that, they will return to their respective blackboards and start the journey of chasing again.
