At the beginning of the Asian market on September 1 (Thursday), US oil is now at $89.99 per barrel; oil prices continued to fall on Wednesday, falling nearly 4%, falling below the 90 mark because of concerns that the global economy will further slow down. OPEC+ believes that oil demand growth is at risk and that demand from the entire Western countries will be destroyed; at the same time, the Treasury Secretary of the G7 (G7) will meet on Friday to discuss the issue of setting a price ceiling for Russian oil raised by the Biden administration.
html within 4 days, focusing on the final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in August and the US ISM manufacturing PMI in August.
negative factors affecting oil prices
[ White House says the G7 will discuss the issue of setting a cap on Russian oil prices on Friday]
The White House said that the G7 finance ministers will discuss the issue of setting a cap on Russian oil prices raised by the Biden administration during a meeting on Friday. "We believe this is the most effective way to crack down on Putin's revenue. Doing so will not only lead to a decline in Putin's oil revenue, but will also drive global energy prices to fall," White House spokesman Jean Pierre told reporters at a briefing on Wednesday. "This issue will be further discussed at this week's G7 Finance Ministers' Meeting. ”
G7 leaders are discussing how to set such a price ceiling and consider other alternatives, including blocking the transport of Russian oil.
International Energy Agency (IEA) said last month that while Russian oil exports fell to their lowest level since August last year, its export revenue in June increased by $700 million from the previous month due to rising prices, 40% higher than last year's average.
Western leaders suggested solving this problem by setting a price ceiling, limiting the price refineries and traders pay for Russian crude oil. Moscow said it would not be subject to this and said it could ship oil to countries that do not implement price ceilings.
[U.S. private job growth slowed down in August]
Nationally based on ADP Industry report: U.S. private jobs only grew moderately in August, but this may exaggerate the slowdown in the labor market, as government data continues to point to strong demand for workers and labor market conditions remain tight. The ADP report shows that private jobs increased by 132,000 in August after adding 268,000 jobs in July. ADP suspended its release in June and July due to modification of data methods, and economists are skeptical about whether the new ADP report will become a reliable labor market indicator.
[OPEC+ believes that oil demand growth is at risk]
Reuters survey showed that Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil production rose to its highest level since the early stage of the epidemic in 2020, helped by Libya facilities recover from the turmoil, and Gulf member countries have increased production, gradually reducing the previously agreed production cuts with allies. According to a Reuters survey, OPEC oil production in August was 29.58 million barrels per day, the highest since April 2020, an increase of 690,000 barrels per day from July.
OPEC+ sources said that due to insufficient production of its member countries, the oil market will only have a slight surplus of 400,000 barrels per day in 2022, far lower than previous forecasts. Sources told Reuters that discussions on production policies after September and whether the Group of Oil Producers will cut production have not yet begun.
A report by the Joint Technical Committee of OPEC+ (JTC) seen by Reuters showed that the committee believes that the oil market surplus will reach 900,000 barrels per day this year. 100,000 barrels per day higher than the previous forecast. Under its basic scenario assumption, JTC believes that the oil market surplus in September was 3.1 million barrels per day, and the excess in October fell to 600,000 barrels per day, and then rose to 1.4 million barrels per day in November.
[ US stock hit the weakest August performance in seven years]
US stock market closed lower for the fourth consecutive day on Wednesday, And it hit its weakest August performance in seven years, concerns about Fed aggressive rate hikes continue to exist. technology stocks fell, especially chip stocks, putting further pressure on the market, after Seagate and HP both released weak financial forecasts.
three major stock indexes recorded their biggest August percentage decline since 2015. S&P 500 has fallen in recent weeks after hitting a four-month high in mid-August. By the close of Wednesday, the html January line fell more than 8%, and fell below several closely watched technical support levels.
was released in the hawkish statement last Friday, saying it would keep the monetary policy tightening "for a period of time" and then accelerated selling pressure, with the above indicator stock index falling more than 5% in the past four trading days. Ingalls; Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Snyder, said: (Powell) is concerned about letting inflation fall and will raise interest rates for it. As for how radical it is, it will all depend on the data. Now the market has been repeatedly tug-of-war and has fluctuated greatly. People are worried that this rebound is just a rebound in a bear market, and some people may be worried that it will hit a new low.
Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Loretta Mester said Wednesday that the Fed will need to raise interest rates above 4% by early next year and then keep it there in order to bring too high inflation back to its target level. This month, the Dow fell 4.06%, the S&P 500 fell 4.24%, and the Nasdaq fell 4.64%. What makes investors even more nervous is that the stock market will enter a traditional period of weakness in September.
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA in New York, said: "September is usually the worst month of the year; only September and February are the months when they recorded average declines, but September is the only month of the year when they fell more than they rose, so it may end up being some kind of self-fulfilling prediction." Data from
Early in the day showed that ADP private jobs increased by 132,000 in August, down from the 288,000 forecast by economists surveyed by Reuters. ADP suspended its release in June and July due to its data modification method, after the company had been poorly documenting private jobs in forecasting jobs in the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment report.
Labor Department employment data will be released on Friday and is expected to show that non-farm jobs increased by 300,000 last month after recording a 528,000 increase in July. If the report remains strong, it may further consolidate the Fed's expectation that it will continue to raise interest rates by a very large margin after three consecutive 75 basis points.
Argentina Unexplained pneumonia has occurred in the north of the country, causing 2 deaths
On August 31, local time, the Argentine Ministry of Health reported that a new death to pneumonia in a hospital in Turkmen Province in the northern part of the country had 1 new death to pneumonia due to pneumonia. At present, the disease has caused 6 infections, including 2 deaths, and 4 other severely infected people, one of whom has shown signs of recovery.
Arab Ministry of Health said that in mid-August, a case of pneumonia of unknown cause was found in a hospital in the province. The infected person had inflammation in both lungs. The Arab Ministry of Health is investigating the cause and transmission path, and is uncertain whether it is a virus or bacteria that causes the disease, and said that no valuable results have been obtained. The hospital has been blocked and has stopped accepting new patients.
Popular factors affecting oil prices
[U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels]
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that crude oil inventories fell in the past week, while distillate oil inventories rose slightly, and demand rebounded.
Oil prices have fallen due to concerns about demand, but U.S. demand data has improved slightly, alleviating some of the concerns. Refineries have declined as maintenance season approaches, but refineries still face the challenge of replenishing distillate stockpiles before winter arrives.
crude oil inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels in the week ending August 26 to 418.3 million barrels, a larger drop than the 1.5 million barrels forecast in a Reuters survey. Distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, rose 111,000 barrels to 111.7 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 960,000 barrels. At this time a year ago, distillate oil stocks were 136.7 million barrels. The biggest drop was East Coast , which is the region with the most heating oil used in the country. "Discount oil inventories have stopped a further downward trend and started to increase, which is exactly what the current market environment requires. But the increase is very small, and as we enter September, inventory will need to increase significantly."
U.S. gasoline product supply has increased in the last week, but the total supply of products reached 20.1 million bpd in the past four weeks, down 6.4% year-on-year. "We are seeing gasoline demand rebound from the previous week, but it still hasn't reached the level we want to see, and the demand is mixed, but the total supply back to above 20 million bpd is very supportive." "
refinery capacity utilization rate fell by 1.1 percentage points to 92.7%, which should drop further before the maintenance season.
[ EU will propose the 8th round of sanctions plan for Russia]
Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the EU has imposed seven rounds of sanctions on Russia. On August 31 local time, German Federal Foreign Minister Bellboke said that the EU is consulting on the 8th round of sanctions plan, and Russian oil exports may become the focus of sanctions. Belboke revealed at the EU Foreign Ministers' Meeting held in Prague that the German government is working hard to promote the implementation of the 8th round of sanctions on Russia and has made suggestions to the EU on this. Although Belboke did not understand The specific content of the sanctions was revealed, but she stressed that it is very important to maintain sanctions against Russia for a long time.
[The United States needs to make "stronger guarantees" in the negotiations on the recovery of compliance with the Iran nuclear agreement ]
Iran Foreign Minister Abdullahyan said on August 31 that Iran needs the United States to make "stronger and more reliable guarantees" in the negotiations on the recovery of compliance with the Iran nuclear issue . According to the Iranian Mehl News Agency, Abdullahyan made the above statement when he met with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov during his visit to Russia. Abdullahyan said that Iran is reviewing the latest text proposed by the United States on the recovery of implementation of the Iran nuclear agreement, "We still need a stronger text on the issue of guarantees. ”
Overall, although EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have declined, but under the concerns of further global economic slowdown, especially under the Fed's firm pace of interest rate hikes, the market is worried that demand in Western countries will be destroyed. In addition, OPEC's oil production rose to the highest level since the early stage of the epidemic in 2020 in August. OPEC+ believes that oil demand growth is at risk, which has strengthened the concerns about demand, and oil prices remained on the short side of the short term.
This article is from Huitong.com
