In order to counter U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, China held a large-scale live-fire military exercise in the Taiwan Strait region. During this exercise, the so-called "middle line of the strait" and "12 nautical mile territorial sea line" of the DPP authorities were all broken through, and China has actually controlled the Taiwan Strait region.
And the United States repeated the same trick. On August 14, five other congressmen including Ed Markey visited Taiwan, and our Eastern Theater Command announced the continued military exercises. This made many media on the island exclaim: the normalization of military exercises that once imagined seems to be a reality.
In fact, what made the forces on the island even more frightened was not the military exercises, but the People's Liberation Army's blockade, which was not fired, and only surrounded and not attacked. What should Taiwan do? The media on the island have recently opened columns to discuss how they should respond if the People's Liberation Army blocks Taiwan. What's more interesting is that some media on the island have begun to imagine how the DPP authorities should surrender.
From the satellite map, we can see that during the military exercise period, ships and flights in the surrounding areas of Taiwan had to bypass the exercise areas, and some were even directly cancelled. Compared with before the military exercise, Taiwan's import and export trade and personnel exchanges had been greatly affected. If Taiwan is blocked, the blow will be fatal.
Taiwan's hinterland is small, with almost all mountainous areas in the east, with a population of 23 million, and lack of resources, and is extremely dependent on import and export trade. In recent years, Taiwan's dependence on energy imports has been around 97%, and the self-sufficiency rate of food is only around 35%.
If Taiwan is blocked, its import and export will be blocked, Taiwan will immediately face soaring prices and rampant black market caused by insufficient supply of basic materials such as energy, food, electricity, and drugs. Coupled with corporate bankruptcy, employees are unemployed, and economic crisis, Taiwan's fiscal collapse will bring a series of social problems. By then, the "Taiwan independence" elements will inevitably surrender and will have to return to the negotiating table.
Taiwan's electricity supply has always been a big problem. In recent years, large-scale power outages have occurred on the island many times, and energy reserves are also short of energy reserves. Liu Xiangbin, former deputy commander-in-chief of Taiwan's army and retired lieutenant general, once said on the show that as long as Taiwan is blocked for ten days, there will be major problems in energy. He also quoted a research report by former US Vice President Albert Gore , saying that 10% of the population will die if Taiwan has a power outage for one month.
Taiwan now occupies an important position in the world's semiconductor industry chain. There are "Taiwan independence" forces on the island that hope to threaten mainland China to make concessions and exchange for assistance from the United States, Japan and other countries. However, the global chip shortage caused by the blockade of Taiwan cannot become a bargaining chip for the Taiwan authorities. Taiwan is only a part of the semiconductor supply chain, and there is no complete semiconductor industry chain on the island. Taiwan occupies an important position in semiconductor manufacturing, packaging and testing, but upstream EDA software, equipment and materials must rely on the United States, Japan and other countries.
Blocking Taiwan will inevitably cause a global chip shortage, but countries around the world have basically no possibility of helping the "Taiwan independence" forces because of this. The possibility of persuading China to stop the blockade is also very small. Instead, it is more likely to persuade the Taiwan authorities to surrender to ease the dilemma of chip shortage they face.
In late May this year, the authoritative think tank of the United States, Rand Company , released a more than 30 pages of "The Impact of China's Forced Isolation of Taiwan", analyzing the situations that the People's Liberation Army may face when blocking Taiwan.
Interestingly, the report calls "blockade" a "mandatory quarantine" because analysts believe that "blockade" is a hostile measure and an act of violation of sovereignty between two countries, and Taiwan is not a sovereign state at all, but a part of China. Therefore, China has full right to "block" Taiwan, but this can only be called "mandatory quarantine." A sovereign state restricts the transportation of some domestic airports and ports, and other countries such as the United States and Japan are not qualified to object at that time.
The report believes that China can completely use measures such as partial restrictions on the take-off and landing of aircraft at ports and airports, such as only allowing some ships that transport basic daily necessities such as food, energy, medicines, etc. to sail into the port. This will not only ensure the most basic livelihood of Taiwan, but it is enough to cause Taiwan's economic operation failure and fiscal collapse. The Taiwanese authorities will inevitably be unable to support it, and they will have to actively seek negotiations at that time.
The "Taiwan independence" forces on the island are hoping to get support from the United States when they are blocked. The report of Rand Company pointed out that the United States will never send troops to "protect Taiwan" just because of China's "isolation" of Taiwan, or engage in a military confrontation with China. The only hope of "Taiwan independence" elements is that the United States blocks mainland China. The report believes that blocking China has extremely high requirements for the United States' troops, and the United States has basically no ability to block China.
In addition to the United States being unable to block China, the report also pointed out that the United States basically has no possibility of stopping the People's Liberation Army from blocking Taiwan, and even if the United States blocks China, due to the huge economic scale and complete industrial chain, China will basically not be affected by a major impact.
Chairman Mao once said: "Closing, blockade, China has everything for ten or eight years!" Even the long-term blockade has limited impact on mainland China, but the short-term blockade on Taiwan will cause a fatal blow. Moreover, since the hollowing out of the U.S. industry has lasted for decades, the U.S. economy has become extremely dependent on China, and the U.S. actually cannot afford the price of blocking China.
In fact, Taiwan's economy relies heavily on the mainland, and its exports to the mainland account for 42% of Taiwan's exports, and Taiwan's imports from the mainland account for 22% of its total imports. The mainland does not need to blockade at all. Just a long-term embargo on Taiwan, and Taiwan's economy is likely to collapse.
British experts once predicted that if China uses force to unify Taiwan, it will take over Taiwan in 72 hours. By then, Western countries will not have time to react and the war of unification will end.
In fact, whether it is economic sanctions or blockade, or a war from local to comprehensive, China is fully capable of completing the unification of Taiwan. However, peaceful reunification remains the best solution to the Taiwan issue.
On August 10, the white paper "Taiwan Issue and China's Unification Cause in the New Era" issued by the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council and the Information Office of the State Council once again stated that we are still willing to complete reunification in a peaceful manner, and are willing to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait region and the prosperity of Taiwan.
Some people on Taiwan Island should not be the sinners of the nation, and should not be enemies of the 1.4 billion people on both sides of the strait who love peace and yearn for unity. If you dare to cross the red line, you will definitely be completely liquidated by the people and fairly judged by history.
