After the National Day, panel stocks have changed their decadence before the festival and have risen quite vigorously in A-shares. As of the close of October 14, BOE reported 3.55 yuan, up 2.01%;

BOE's stock price rose for three consecutive days from October 12 to October 14 after the first trading day after the holiday and a slight decline in the second trading day. Its closing price on October 14 also rose by more than 10% compared with the lowest point in the 52 weeks before the festival.

In addition, Rainbow Co., Ltd. also rose for four consecutive days in the five trading days after the National Day. Based on its closing price on October 14, it rose 20% compared with its 52-week stock price lowest point of 3.62 yuan that appeared in the trading session on October 11. Shenzhen Tianma rose for three days in the five trading days after National Day. Its closing price on October 14 rose nearly 6% compared with the 52-week lowest price of 8.33 yuan on October 12.

However, although the prices of panel stocks have risen, there is still a distance from their historical highs.

Take the double-head panel as an example. TCL Technology's 52-week highest point was at 6.44 yuan reported intraday on December 10 last year. But the historical peak of its stock price was 9.89 yuan that appeared in March 2021. At that time, the price of LCD panels was serious and the longest rising cycle in history, and the trend of panel stocks was also rising.

BOE's stock price trend node is roughly the same as TCL Technology. In April 2021, its stock price also broke through the 7 yuan mark, reaching its historical highest point. But the stock price also fluctuated downwards, and its current 52-week stock price highest point, also appeared on December 10 last year. How long can

last

The capital market is always closely related to the price trend of LCD panels. Behind this wave of rebound after National Day, the TV panel price that fell to material costs began to stabilize gradually in October.

Qunzhi Consulting’s TV panel price survey data released on October 9 showed that driven by panel manufacturers’ active production cuts and price strategy , the prices of 32-inch and 43-inch panels are expected to rise by two US dollars in October. The prices of 50-inch and 55-inch panels also stopped the decline, and prices are expected to remain unchanged from September to October. In terms of large sizes, due to the slow recovery of international brand demand and high pressure on panel inventory, prices continued to fall in September, but the decline narrowed significantly. It is expected that under the influence of production control in October, its prices are expected to stabilize.

Dixian Information previously released a report that in October, the price drops from 32-inch to 75-inch TV panels will all be zero. The price of only 85-inch panels will fall by another $3, but the decline has tightened significantly compared to previous ones. As November begins, Dixian expects the price of 85-inch panels to stop falling and stabilize, while other panels of various sizes will rise slightly from $1-3.One factor affecting panel price is that after entering the third quarter, panel companies have actively adjusted the crop rate to historical lows. Rong Chaoping, senior research manager of Aovierwo, told the China Times reporter that the top panel factories are currently suffering serious losses and are determined to stabilize prices. The crop rate of top panel factories in September is even lower than 65%, and it is planned to maintain low production operations in October, so the supply terminal control is relatively strong.

, but downstream demand has a greater impact on panel prices.

A set of data can show the weakening of downstream demand. Statistics from Counterpoint show that global smartphone shipments in the first half of 2022 were about 240 million units, down 14% year-on-year. Aovierwo’s report shows that global TV shipments in the first half of 2022 were 90.7M, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%.

But compared with the first half of the year, the demand for TV panels looks to be more in the second half of this year. In addition to the Qatar World Cup, which will be held in November this year, the "Double Eleven" battle of retail giants is already being prepared in full swing.

Rong Chaoping told the reporter of the China Times that on the demand side, the Chinese market actively prepares stocks for Double 11, overseas European and American markets actively sell inventory, and inventory has declined. After Samsung Electronics experienced the freezing point of Q2 panel demand, it resumed procurement volume quarter by quarter in the third and fourth quarters. He believes that panel prices will gradually stabilize starting in October. In addition, small-size panels such as 32 and 43-inch have a chance to rebound, but large-size rebound is under certain pressure.

Dixian Information Deputy General Manager Yi Xianjing also told the reporter of the China Times that the inventory of panel factories has now been controlled around the safe water level, and the output is strictly controlled, so the price may really have the opportunity to stop falling and recover in the next two months. But he also believes that "even if the TV panels rise, they will last for a short time. From a broad perspective, it is still oversupply."

It should be mentioned that TCL Huaxing COO Zhao Jun believed in an interview with reporters from the China Times and other media before the National Day, "The overall demand is expected to return to normal in the first half of next year."