Under the epidemic, confidence is more important than gold! Yesterday, the leaders of the central bank and the Ministry of Finance said, "I guess the real estate stocks will fall and cry today!"
Of course, this is just a short-term verbal statement. How the market still depends on how to do it, and not how to say it!
Recently, most people in the real estate market will see two major battlefields: some are robbing money and some are robbing land!
The battlefield for grabbing land:
On February 18, Beijing will sell 3 plots of land, with more than 20 real estate companies participating. Under the epidemic, there are still companies that are not short of money.
Taihu, Old Palace HTML and Daxing Caiyu will be auctioned on February 18, with a total starting price of 6.556 billion yuan in three residential lands. Although the land attributes are definitely not as good as the three plots on February 14, the number of participating companies has exploded!
Daxingcaiyu plot has been sold at the lowest price, and the Zhongzhong and Xingchuang Consortium are in charge.
There are as many as 7 companies in the Daxing Old Palace plot: 1. China Overseas, 2. Investment Promotion, 3. Shoukai Poly Consortium, 4. Greentown, 5. Ping An, 6. Shimao , 7. Jinmao .
The most surprising thing is the Taihu plot! 18 companies participated in
, Zhuzhong; 2. Yuexiu; 3. Zhonghai; 4. Pomegranate; 5. Huafa; 6. Excellence; 7. Xuhui; 8. Jindi; 9. Longhu; 10. Greentown; 11. Ping An; 12. Country Garden; 13. Investment Promotion; 14. Shimao; 15. China Communications; 16. Wugang; 17. Shoukai + Poly
Why are so many companies participating in the battle for Taihu plot?
: In February, a number of high-premium land transactions were sold in Beijing!
cumulative transactions of 6 residential plots, with a total transaction land transfer fee of up to 27.685 billion!
: The total price of Taihu plot is not high, and the price is not limited to
, Tongzhou District, Beijing, Yizhuang New Town, Taihu Town, YZ00-0401-0056, YZ00-0401-L0055-02 plot R2 Class II residential land and A334 childcare land, starting price is only 900 million yuan, so the enthusiasm of large and small enterprises to participate is higher than the previous ones for a starting price of billions. expects the premium rate to exceed 30% again. It is even possible to approach the limit price of 50% premium rate! The floor price of
starts at 17,910 yuan per square meter. Compared with the current price of 50,000 yuan for limited competition houses sold in the area, because the floor price starts at a relatively low and the total price of the plot is not high, there are many participating companies.
: It is predicted that the market will be loose in the second half of the year
If there is no epidemic, the real estate market in China, at present, Beijing will definitely be among the healthiest cities. After more than three years of adjustment, the price has been removed from the bubble. Compared with Shenzhen and other places, the market in Beijing is basically only in urgent need.
Under the influence of the epidemic, if there is a little room for future policies. So according to the time when this batch of land is launched in February, it will basically take October 2020. Without a small spring in Beijing, the possibility of a small peak at the end of the year is very high! Therefore, most companies participated in several land transfers that came in February.
4: There are not many private enterprises, mainly state-owned enterprises!
Recently, the land market in the country is dominated by state-owned enterprises, and very few private enterprises have acquired land, and this problem also exists in Beijing. So far, pure private enterprises have not obtained land. Most of the land is obtained by state-owned enterprises.
Relatively speaking, state-owned enterprises have little financial pressure.
5: The national land market also has serious differentiation
Land market At present, it has not fully recovered after the epidemic. Except for the land market in most cities in Beijing, it is only selling land sporadically. From the perspective of premium rate, the average premium rate in Beijing has reached 24.96%. Only 9.3% in 2019.
Most cities in the country are in freezing. In January, the 50 hot cities sold a total of 279.8 billion yuan in land, a slight increase of 2.9% year-on-year. The main hot spot selling cities is Hangzhou. Seven cities including Beijing and Shanghai have exceeded 10 billion. Overall, due to the impact of the Spring Festival in January, the year-on-year increase in January was lower than that in February of 2019.
Hot cities land has begun auction.
1: While the epidemic is still at a high level, companies that dare to acquire land are all warriors, which proves that the capital chain of these companies is indeed not tight, and they are confident that the epidemic will be resolved quickly.
2: Those who dare to acquire land recently are actually gambling. If the epidemic can be quickly alleviated, they will definitely buy at the bottom and get high-quality bottom-priced land and overtake on the curve. But if the impact of the epidemic continues, it is likely to fall into the quagmire.
3: For most companies, selling houses has been completely suspended. Although they are trying to watch houses online, they are actually just warm-up exercises. Most companies currently acquire land in January of the year, so they are just continuing to implement the plan now.
4: From a national perspective, if Hubei can control the epidemic in February, coupled with the expected interest rate cuts and other policies, the market will recover quickly. There may even be another obvious wave of spring. Most of the land acquisition companies have been preparing for the second half of the year recently.
Most companies are still actively developing marketing strategies, hoping to obtain funds!
First of all: Under the influence of the epidemic, all industries are facing survival problems, not only the real estate industry, so the current market needs to first respond to loose policies, but also companies need to save themselves. Only by rescuing themselves and helping others can companies overcome difficulties.
Secondly: At present, the discount behavior of some companies is just a marketing statement, but it is actually a discount on the registered price, not a discount on the early sales price. And not all projects are participated. There is little impact on the market.
Overall, according to the announced discounts, it basically has slight discounts for individual projects.
3: From the perspective of market trends, real estate companies can only expect policy changes. For the real estate market, the past too strict regulatory policies should be adjusted, especially for first-home and improved loan policies.
Fourth: Overall, the capital chain pressure of real estate companies is not large in February, but compared with other industries, real estate companies have higher debt ratios. If the epidemic continues until March, there may indeed be some companies’ due debt problems.
However, under the influence of the epidemic, real estate companies will be relatively cautious in choosing to lower prices. Because real estate, as a Giffen product, it is difficult to exchange for too many sales when the price of real estate is reduced.
