In the foreign exchange market on the 14th, due to the differences in Japan-US financial policies, the interest rate spread of Japan-US expanded, and the US dollar-JPY exchange rate fell to 148 yen, refreshing the latest value in 32 years.
yen exchange rate against the US dollar was around 115 yen at the end of last year, and it has fallen by 22% from the beginning of this year to the 14th. Although the foreign exchange market has expectations for , Japan Bank intervention, it still did not block the trend of depreciation of the yen and is likely to break through the 150 yen mark in the short term. The unstoppable background of the depreciation of the yen and the appreciation of the US dollar is the high inflation in the United States. The U.S. consumer price index released on the 13th exceeded market expectations. In order to curb inflation, the U.S. Federal Reserve (FRB) will continue to adopt a positive tightening attitude. Therefore, there is a clear difference in direction with the Bank of Japan, which adheres to quantitative easing policies. Shortly after the release of the US Consumer Price Index, the yen exchange rate fell below the lowest value of 147 yen and 64 points, which was previously considered an important threshold. (Last time was in August 1998)
As of the week ending to the 14th, the exchange rate of the yen to the US dollar has exceeded 3 yen. Whether the Bank of Japan, which implemented exchange rate intervention on September 22, will intervene again become the focus. As the yen exchange rate fell to 148 yen, the finance minister of the Ministry of Finance Masato Kanda said on the 14th: "We are ready to take decisive actions." He also said that if the exchange rate continues to fluctuate, we will be willing to intervene at any time.
Domestic securities pointed out that market officials pointed out: "Before the 150 yen mark, although the vigilance of intervention has increased, the direction of Japan-US financial policies will not change, and the yen is expected to gradually depreciate in the short term."
This choice of the Bank of Japan is actually a helpless move. On the one hand, due to the aging population and the impact of the epidemic, coupled with energy expenditure, the overall debt level is rising sharply. As of June this year, the Japanese Ministry of Finance officially released a total of about 1255 trillion yen, which is approximately 62 trillion yuan. Japan cannot follow the US interest rate hike , and countries and enterprises cannot afford huge interest expenses. On the other hand, Japan is currently implementing a quantitative easing policy, with the purpose of stimulating consumption through low interest rates. After hikes interest rates between U.S. bonds and Japanese treasury bonds have increased, and the depreciation of the yen is inevitable. Third, due to the long-term low interest rate level of Japan, the yen has become a safe-haven currency in the international market, which has kept its exchange rate stable for a long time. The Bank of Japan feels that the exchange rate has room for further decline in the short term.
Currently, Japan has fallen into an "atmosphere" brought about by the depreciation of the yen. Recently, Japanese media have reported that overseas tourists have come back to Japan for shopping due to the depreciation of the yen. They also claim that Japan will still behave in the same market without a Chinese market, and even put forward the slogan of establishing a country through tourism. What Lao Wang wants to say here is that the Japanese economy, which relies on the automobile, new materials, steel, and optical materials industries as its pillars, cannot be saved by tourism alone. If you want to think about why cars cannot sell in China, why Kobe system is just fake, and why the high-speed rail made by Japan for the UK leaks. . Only by thinking clearly about these problems can Japan find a solution. Otherwise, the rapid depreciation of the exchange rate will eventually hurt its own citizens. The national wealth will be looted and regressed for 30 years, and it will not be impossible to regress for 70 years in the end.
(likes, comments and forwarding are welcome)
