In the early morning of the 15th Beijing time, US stocks maintained a decline at the end of Friday, and technology stocks led the decline. The market is paying attention to the financial reports of many large banks. Retail sales in the United States increased zero month-on-month in September, lower than expected. Economists expect the chance of a US economic recession to be as high as 60% in the next 12 months, and JPMorgan Chase expects the US to fall into recession in the next 6 to 9 months.
Dow Jones fell 374.21 points, or 1.25%, to 29,664.51 points; Nasdaq fell 279.07 points, or 2.62%, to 10,370.08 points; S&P 500 fell 77.40 points, or 2.11%, to 3,592.51 points.
JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo both announced revenue exceeded expectations. Morgan Stanley announced that it was profitable below expectations. Citigroup also reported that its profit in the third quarter was not up to standard.
Dow component United Health Group's performance exceeded market expectations.
US stock companies have a worrying profit outlook this fiscal quarter. According to data collected by FactSet, S&P 500's profit rose only 2.4% in the third quarter, the lowest increase since the third quarter of 2020.
At the beginning of the third quarter, the market expected that the profit growth in this quarter would reach 10%. But rising costs and interest rates have eroded the company's profits. When the third quarter results are about to be announced, 65 S&P 500 companies have issued negative performance guidance, while only 41 companies have announced active performance guidance.
US stocks closed higher after falling for several days on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 827 points on the same day, erasing the decline of more than 500 points in the morning. The S&P 500 closed up 2.6%, ending its previous downward trend for six consecutive trading days. The Nasdaq closed up 2.2%.
Bank of America strategist Michael Harnett said that the rise in U.S. stocks after Thursday's inflation data was released was a "bear rebound." The U.S. stock market has been worried about an economic recession since this year, and the U.S. Federal Reserve is unwavering in controlling inflation.
Michael Harnett pointed out that the U.S. stock market and the economy will experience more pain before the Fed withdraws from aggressive austerity policies.
Bank believes that the US stock market will not bottom out until 2023. Before the Fed makes concessions, investors still need to bear more economic and market pain.
Goldman Sachs traders pointed out that the rise in stock markets on Thursday was more leveraging "radical macro shorts to cover ". Before the third quarter reports of US stock companies were fully launched, their institutional customer activity levels remained low. Pure long funds that actively hold positions in have not entered the market in large quantities, and they also have more than US$230 billion in cash waiting and see.
The US September Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Thursday showed that the U.S. inflation pressure is still high, strengthening investors' expectations that the Fed will continue to adhere to the radical interest rate hike plan, resulting in a sharp fall in U.S. stocks in the morning. But then investors got rid of the impact of this concern.
However, inflation continues to rise, which is still a problem that the Fed needs to solve, and has also made investors worried about the central bank's tightening policy.
UBS chief investment manager Mark Haefele said on Friday: "Given that core CPI data is still moving further and further in the wrong direction and the labor market is still strong, the conditions for the Fed's policy shift are not mature, and the Fed's policy shift is one of the necessary conditions for the continued rise of the stock market."
He said: "Besides, with the long-term high inflation and the Fed's further rate hikes, the cumulative effect of a number of tightening policies has greatly increased the risk of pushing the US economy into recession, which has negatively affected the profit prospects of American companies."
JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon said on Thursday that "intuition" told him that given that US inflation continues to be high, the Fed's interest rate hike will make interest rates higher than economists' forecasts of 4% to 4.5%. Dimon said on Monday that the U.S. could enter some recession in the next six to nine months and expected the S&P 500 to fall 20% from its current level.
In just four days, the head of Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase issued a series of warnings on the prospects of the US economy.
Dimon said at an industry meeting on Thursday that while suppressing inflation through interest rates, the Federal Reserve cannot successfully achieve a "soft landing" of the US economy, and the Federal Reserve cannot both cool down hot inflation without causing an economic recession.
Dimon said that consumers' strong performance can last for another 9 months. He "fully believes" Fed Chairman Powell. Among the possible consequences of the Fed's efforts to curb the price surge, stagflation is an extremely bad one. He expects the United States to fall into recession within the next six to nine months.
Economic data, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported that U.S. retail sales remained flat month-on-month in September, lower than the market's expected growth of 0.2%, and the previous value was 0.3%. Retail sales in August were revised to a month-on-month increase of 0.4%.
Excluding car and gasoline prices, retail sales in September rose 0.3% month-on-month, higher than market expectations of 0.2%, and the previous value was 0.3%. August's month-on-month data was revised up to 0.6%. No relevant data has been adjusted for inflation.
html September retail sales data show that consumers have become more cautious about buying non-essentials under the worst inflation environment in decades.Focus stock
It is reported that due to technical problems, Tesla has suspended battery production plans at the Greenhead factory outside Berlin, Germany. Currently, only electrode research has been retained here. All machines used to wrap, assemble and format the remaining production steps of battery cells will be transferred to the Austin factory in Texas, USA.
Morgan Stanley's net revenue in the third quarter was $13 billion, lower than expected.
Citigroup's Q3 revenue was US$18.5 billion, and its third-quarter earnings per share was US$1.63.
JPMorgan Chase's Q3 revenue was US$32.7 billion and its earnings per share were US$3.12, both exceeding market expectations.
Wells Fargo's net profit in the third quarter was US$3.528 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 31%. Wells Fargo released its third quarter 2022 financial report. According to the financial report, in the third quarter, Wells Fargo's revenue was US$19.505 billion, and increased by 4% year-on-year; net profit was US$3.528 billion, down 31% year-on-year.
Beyond Meat lay off 19% of its employees and lowered its net revenue estimate for the whole fiscal year.
Total expects Q3 performance to be supported by natural gas business.
Alberson discusses merger with Kroger .
Goldman Sachs cut its Luminar Technologies target price to US$7.
watts possible source completion merge with TransGlobe.
Ram Research fell 2% before the market trading, and Deutsche Bank lowered its target price for the company.
According to media reports, Alphabet's Google may face antitrust charges from EU for its digital advertising business next year, and may be fined more than 1 billion euros by the EU for the fourth time.
On Thursday local time, Margaret Stewart, vice president of product design at Meta Platforms, posted on Facebook that she would leave, and she has worked at the company for more than 10 years. Stewart said she has no plans for the next step.
Bank of America analysts estimate that the total value (GMV) of merchandise sold by Amazon in the two-day Prime Early Access promotion was $8 billion, down from the $10.7 billion GMV sold by the company in July’s promotion. As far as revenue is concerned, assuming a conversion rate of 30% for third-party sellers, Bank of America estimates the e-commerce giant's second Prime Day event received $5.7 billion in revenue, compared to $7.5 billion in July.
However, not all sales are incremental, as some shopping in Prime Early Access may be prematurely sold on holidays.
In addition, according to Bank of America's forecast for Amazon's total GMV of $185.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022, the bank estimates that Prime Day may contribute 4% of the quarter's GMV (compared to 7% in July), contributing 2.3 percentage points to year-on-year growth, down from 6 percentage points in July.
Other markets, the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) futures price of for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $3.50, or 3.93%, closing at $85.61 per barrel, down 7.58% this week.
2 gold futures closed down 1.7% at $1,648.90 per ounce, down about 3.5% this week.
