In the early trading of the Asian market on Wednesday (October 12), Beijing time, the dollar index traded around 113.30, and the US dollar rose in fluctuating trading on Tuesday, continuing the recent uptrend. Federal Reserve Mester said that it would need to further promote monetary tightening. At the same time, concerns about geopolitical tensions made investors uneasy; gold prices closed lower, intraday tug-of-war, investors prepared for the key U.S. inflation report, which is expected to affect the Federal Reserve's stance of monetary policy ; oil prices continued the trend of falling nearly 2% on the previous trading day, as concerns about recession and the spread of the epidemic have triggered concerns about global demand.
U.S. stock closing situation: Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.12% to 29239.32 points; S&P 500 fell 0.65% to 3588.74 points; Nasdaq fell 1.1% to 10426.19 points.
Commodity closing situation: Brent crude oil settlement price fell 2% to $94.29 per barrel; U.S. crude oil settlement price fell 2% to $89.35. U.S. gold futures climbed 0.6% to settle at $1,686.00.
Wednesday forward
OPEC released its monthly crude oil market report, European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech, and Federal Reserve officials spoke.
Global markets at a glance
U.S. stock market S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed down on Tuesday, and the Bank of England said it would only support the country's bond market for three more days, which aggravated uneasiness in the late trading. Market trading fluctuates, investors are cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data and a third-quarter earnings season that begins later this week.
Dow Jones closed up, and Amgen stock price jumped 5.7%, after Morgan Stanley upgraded the rating of the drugmaker's stock from "performance consistent with market " to "performance surpassing the market".
All three major stock indexes fell in afternoon trading after Bank of England Governor Bailey told pension fund managers to complete position rebalancing by Friday, when the Bank of England will end its emergency support plan for the bond market. "What led to the latest round of declines was the Bank of England's announcement that it would stop supporting the UK Treasury market in three days," said Randy Frederick, general manager of Trading and Derivatives at Schwab.com. "Earlier on Tuesday, the Pension and Lifetime Savings Association urged the Bank of England to extend its bond purchase plan until October 31, "even longer." Treasury yields rose, and growth stocks and tech stocks performed poorly due to concerns that this week's U.S. inflation data won't stop the Fed from hiking rates quickly. S&P tech stock index fell 1.5%. The producer price index report will be released on Wednesday, and the consumer price index data will be released on Thursday. The Fed has been aggressively raising interest rates to curb inflation and is expected to continue raising interest rates next year.
Stock markets have been hit in recent weeks on concerns about how far the Fed will continue to raise interest rates and the potential impact on the economy. The S&P Bank stock index fell 2.6%, with major banks reporting quarterly results later this week. This will start the third quarter financial report season of the S&P 500 index component enterprise.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the U.S. economy will grow slightly by 1.6% this year, which has heightened recent concerns about the U.S. economy. New York Stock Exchange The ratio of stocks to rise is 1.50:1; the Nasdaq Exchange is 1.51:1. One S&P 500 Index component hit a 52-week high, with 104 hitting a new low; 33 NASDAQ Index equities hitting a new high, with 590 hitting a new low.
The total transaction volume of each US exchange has been 11.65 billion shares, while the average daily trading volume in the past 20 full trading days was 11.73 billion shares.
Precious metals
Gold prices rebounded from a weekly low on Tuesday, as investors prepared for a key U.S. inflation report that is expected to impact the Fed's monetary policy stance.
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $1,677.70 per ounce, and rose about 1% earlier in the session. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield gave up earlier gains , helping boost demand for non-profit gold.
However, TDS curities commodity strategist Ryan McKay said, "A lot of daily price movements are noise at the moment," and the market is still waiting for inflation data and records of previous meetings before the next Fed meeting.
Thursday's U.S. inflation reading is expected to remain stubbornly high, consolidating the Fed's hawkish monetary policy stance. McKay added: "In fact, gold is performing quite strongly with rising real interest rates, so I think gold prices will fall."
silver fell 1.2% to $19.42 per ounce, platinum rose 0.2% to $900.35, and palladium fell 1.1% to $2148.08.
Crude Oil
Oil prices closed down 2% on Tuesday, continuing the trend of a decline of nearly 2% on the previous trading day as fears of a recession and the spread of the epidemic have sparked concerns about global demand.
World Bank Governor David Malpass and IMF President Georgieva warned on Monday that the risk of a global economic recession is increasing and said inflation remains a persistent problem. The IMF warned on Tuesday that inflation, the energy and food crisis caused by war and collision pressures from sharp rise in interest rates are pushing the world to the brink of recession and threatening the stability of financial markets. "The pessimism is getting heavier in the market now."
At the beginning of this year, oil prices rose sharply as Russia's invasion of Ukraine exacerbated concerns about supply, bringing the Brent contract close to an all-time high of $147, but oil prices fell due to economic concerns.
Oil is also under pressure from a strong dollar, which hit years of highs due to concerns about interest rate hikes and the escalation of the Ukrainian war. The strong dollar makes oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies and tends to suppress risk appetite .
However, the decline was limited due to tight market supply and last week's decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia to reduce its production target by 2 million barrels per day.
Forex
Hidden dollar rose in fluctuating trading on Tuesday, continuing its recent uptrend after the Bank of England governor reiterated that the bank would end its emergency bond purchase plan on Friday and told pension fund managers to complete the position rebalancing within that time period. This has heightened concerns that the Bank of England's exit could reignite market volatility around the world, leading to financial instability.
BN Governor Bailey told pension fund managers that positions rebalancing will be completed by Friday, when BNN will end emergency support plans for the UK bond market. Earlier on Tuesday, the Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association urged the Bank of England to extend its bond purchase plan until October 31, "maybe even longer." After Bailey's speech, the pound fell to a two-week low of $1.0962, down 0.9%.
A pessimistic report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has aggravated concerns, which says countries that account for one-third of the world's total output may fall into recession next year. The IMF further lowered its global growth forecast for 2023.
Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Loretta Mester said Tuesday that despite a sharp increase in interest rates this year, the Fed has not yet controlled the surge in inflation and will need to further promote monetary tightening. Unacceptable and sustained high inflation remains a key challenge for the U.S. economy. "
Mestre said in a speech at an event held by New York Economic Club , "Although the demand side of the economy has eased and the conditions on the supply side have also shown signs of improvement, there has been no progress in inflation. "The policymaker is a member of the voting rights of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which has significantly increased short-term borrowing costs this year. At its policy meeting in September, policymakers raised the target range of federal funds rates to 3%-3.25%, and hinted that further rate hikes will be raised until next year, with an eye on getting the federal funds rate to 4.6%."Risk aversion will continue until we see some good news, and that's all good for the dollar. I can see it still pushing the dollar higher, despite people thinking it's a crowded deal. But the trend is definitely bullish now."
Investors are also preparing for a key inflation report later this week, which is expected to show continued strong price pressure.
Overall, dollar popularity remains positive as concerns over rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions have disturbed investors, while the yen hovered near the levels that prompted Japanese authorities to intervene last month.
Strong U.S. labor market data and high inflation forecasts on Thursday have left people only expected high interest rates throughout 2023, which should push the dollar to rebound to its peak in 2002 that hit last month.
In afternoon trading, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.2% to 113.25, not far from the 20-year high of 114.78 hit at the end of last month.
U.S. data released on Thursday is expected to show that overall inflation in September was 8.1%, down from 8.3% in August. Core inflation is expected to rise to 6.5% from 6.3% in August.
USD 0 hit a three-week high of 145.895 against the yen, not far from the 24-year peak of 145.90 set by the Japanese government three weeks ago. At the end of New York, the US dollar remained flat at 145.815 yen.
Japanese cabinet chief Hiroshi Matsuno reiterated his government's willingness to intervene on Tuesday, saying they would "take appropriate measures against excessive exchange rate fluctuations." Concerns about intervention have helped the yen stay firm in recent weeks, but as the yen falls to decades lows, analysts have been paying attention to whether the Bank of Japan will step in again.
euro was 0.9706 against the US dollar, with little change. The previous four consecutive days of decline caused the euro to fall to the 20-year low of $0.9528 hit on September 26.
The UK market is still tense and uneasy. The Bank of England has stepped up its bond purchases and the news that the Chancellor of Chancellor Kuateng promised to announce the budget in advance did not completely relieve market doubts.
Meanwhile, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar hit a two-and-a-half low of $0.6248, with New York falling 0.4% at $0.6270 late in trading. National Bank analysts said the Australian dollar is a "scapegoat" for market sell-offs and may fall further in the short term due to fragile popularity.
Market News
Hungarian Prime Minister: EU The consequences of sanctions against Russia are "disastrous"
Local time on the 11th local time, Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, who is visiting Germany, said at an event that the EU's sanctions policy on Russia is "primitive" in implementation, and the consequences are "disastrous". Orban criticized the EU's sanctions against Russia, believing that the sanctions measures "ignore Europe's interests" and undermined the economies of Germany and Hungary. "Sanctions could not have destroyed our energy industry, but European Commission failed." (CCTV)
Mexico launches oil hedging plans to lock in oil revenue in 2023
According to people familiar with the matter, Mexico has begun a large-scale oil hedging plan for 2023. People familiar with the matter said the country will lock oil prices at around $75 per barrel in the first half of 2023. Mexico's "Hacienda Hedge" is the world's largest sovereign oil hedge , and has received close attention from the global market. One of the people familiar with the matter said the deal was mainly executed this year through oil giants. While Mexican History has been operating the program through large banks, in recent years, oil giants have played a more important role in it, as their physical assets allow them to retain more risks on the books.
Source: Saudi ignores the U.S. warning before OPEC + production cuts
According to Wall Street Journal , people familiar with the matter revealed that a few days before OPEC and its allies led by Russia announced a massive production cut, U.S. officials called officials from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf oil-producing countries, urgently calling for the decision to cut production for another month. But the answer I got was: "No".U.S. officials warned Saudi leaders that production cuts would be seen as a clear choice for Saudi Arabia to stand on Russia in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, a move that would weaken U.S. support for Saudi Arabia had already weakened, people familiar with the matter said. Saudi officials rejected the demands, which they see as the Biden administration’s political strategy to avoid bad news before the U.S. midterm elections, and high oil prices and inflation have been central to the campaign.
The International Monetary Fund released the "Global Financial Stability Report"
On the 11th local time, the International Monetary Fund released a new issue of the "Global Financial Stability Report" stating that since April 2022, the global financial stability risks have increased, and the risk balance has been significantly tilted downward. The report analyzes the policy response of the central bank to high inflation, the risk of disorderly tightening of the financial environment, and the debt crisis in emerging and cutting-edge markets, explores how to narrow the climate financing gap in emerging and developing economies, and analyzes the contribution of open investment funds to the fragility of asset markets. The report recommends that central banks must take decisive action to restore inflation to target levels. Some emerging market economies that are coping with a global tightening cycle should reduce financial stability risks and maintain appropriate monetary policy transmission. Sovereign borrowers in developing economies and frontier markets should work harder to curb the risks posed by high debt vulnerability. Policy makers should curb further accumulation of financial vulnerability. (CCTV News)
9 New energy vehicle production and sales hit a new high in September for 300,000 yuan new energy vehicle may be exempted by 65,000 yuan
According to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles hit a new record high. The reporter visited the Beijing passenger car market and found that purchase tax incentives and other policies to promote consumption have continued to make efforts, driving the sales of new energy vehicles to continue to rise. A staff member of a certain automobile brand told reporters, "A vehicle with a total price of about 300,000 yuan, comprehensive national subsidy, manufacturer subsidy, plus purchase tax, subsidy, etc., may have a maximum subsidy of 65,000 yuan." (CCTV Finance)
Putin : OPEC+ production cuts are not targeting anyone
Last week, the OPEC+ alliance co-chaired by Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to cut its daily production by 2 million barrels, the biggest drop since 2020. The decision was a heavy blow to Biden, who has been seeking to lower the price of crude oil before winter and expressed disappointment in the move. Putin insists that OPEC and its allies' decisions are designed to stabilize the global energy market and not target anyone. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said last week that Russia will not deliver crude oil to countries that comply with the limits and may cut production accordingly. The move could further squeeze the global oil market, causing oil prices to soar.
S&P Global Automotive Research Institute: Energy crisis may reduce European automobile production by nearly 40% quarter by quarter
S&P Global automotive research institute S;;; PGlobalMobility warned on Tuesday that in the worst case, Europe's energy crisis could reduce its automobile production by nearly 40% quarterly by the end of 2023. In a report titled "Winter is coming", the agency said that the supply chain of the automotive industry, which has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, "may face huge pressure due to soaring energy costs and even power outages.
Spanish government approved the energy contingency plan and promised to reduce gas costs
00 local time. On October 11, local time, the Spanish government approved a new version of the energy contingency plan. The government promised to reduce gas costs for about 1.6 million households that require central heating, but the government did not say in detail. It shows how to reduce the exemptions, and only indicates that specific details will be provided in the next few weeks.
IMF lowers its global economic growth forecast for next year to 2.7%
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest issue of the " World Economic Outlook Report " on the 11th, which is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2022, the same as the July forecast; the global economic growth rate will further slow to 2.7% in 2023, down 0.2 percentage points from the July forecast.The report pointed out that the current global economy faces many challenges: inflation has reached its highest level in decades, the tightening of the financial environment in most regions, the Ukrainian crisis and the continued COVID-19 pandemic have seriously affected the prospects of global economic growth. The report also pointed out that the global economic outlook faces huge downside risks, and monetary policy may make mistakes in dealing with inflation, and more energy and food price shocks may cause inflation to last longer. The tightening of the global financing environment may trigger a wide range of debt difficulties in emerging markets. ”
This article is from Huitong.com
