htmlOn September 13, the three major indexes of U.S. stock market diverged, and new energy vehicle stocks weakened. As of press time, Dow rose 0.62%, Nasdaq fell 0.44%, and S&P 500 rose 0.16%. The following is a summary of important information in the global market:
Global macro
ECB "calibrates" emergency bond purchases, the UK plans to increase tax by 36 billion pounds in three years
Europe's current inflation level is the peak in the past decade, and the unemployment rate is declining. The unemployment rate in July was 7.6%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, loans grew steadily (a year-on-year increase of 3% in July), mortgage loan growth also showed an accelerated trend, with a 5.7% increase being the best value since 2008. Currently, European monetary policy is loose, the borrowing cost is basically 0, and there is no hindrance in currency liquidity. Against this backdrop, the ECB Bank Loan Survey shows that the willingness to borrow and finance for investment purposes is increasing. It is undoubtedly helpful that both the real interest rates measured in CPI and PPI are at their worst levels in 30 years.
The European Central Bank raised its economic growth forecast for this year to 5% from the previous 4.6% and lowered its forecast for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.6%. At the same time, the bank lowered its inflation expectations, and now expects inflation to be 2.2% this year, compared with 1.9% previous expectations, to 1.7% next year and to 1.5% in 2023.
U.S. PPI exceeds expectations, which may trigger further inflation
U.S. PPI inflation data released last week rose 8.3% year-on-year, up 9 consecutive months, setting the largest increase since 2010, and the core PPI also reached 6.3%, the largest since 2014. The current inflation pressure in the United States is indeed relatively large, and there is no sign of turning around. It is mainly because most of the US products are imported, and global prices and commodities have risen, which has a greater boost to US inflation, which is directly reflected in prices. In the short term, CPI may decline due to the epidemic, but medium- and long-term inflation pressure may trigger Feder to withdraw from QE, which puts U.S. stocks under pressure and is also the biggest risk in the fourth quarter.
U.S. stocks focus
Wall Street banks are rushing to sound the alarm: the callback is coming
Many Wall Street banks including Goldman Sachs , Morgan Stanley and Bank of America issued reports last week warning that some negative shocks may bring the rise to an abrupt end, and a more meaningful decline in the future is brewing. Deutsche Bank (Deutsche Bank) said that after a year of strong profit growth after the epidemic, the high valuation of in the U.S. stock market now shows that the market may soon see a sharp sell-off.
Research teams including Binky Chadha pointed out in a latest report that high valuations themselves do not necessarily indicate a sharp pullback in the market, but when the performance cycle is further extended, the downward trend is often more obvious. The bank further explained that almost all valuation indicators show that the trading level of the US stock market is at a "historical extreme" level, including stock price/earnings, corporate value/ EBITDA and cash flow valuation indicators have entered the 90% percentile.
Deutsche Bank said, "We doubt whether the profit trend over the past 85 years has changed. Analysts may soon stop catching up and no longer raise their earnings expectations. We expect the profit trend to slow down, and if not end, it will weaken the key driving force for stock market rises." The bank believes that the confusion about where the market is in the current recovery cycle can explain most of the recent gains , and is also one of the main risks in the future: "From the fundamentals point of view, we believe that the key reason for such a high P/E ratio is that the market is confused about our position in the earnings cycle, which to some extent reflects the speed and unexpectedness of the economic recovery, and the resulting continued sharp rebound."
CITIC Securities : Are US stocks unable to rise?
was affected by the high valuation, and after the new non-agricultural market on September 3 was significantly lower than expected, US stocks generally fell. Looking ahead, we judge that the impact of Delta virus on U.S. fundamentals, high inflation and Taper will not have a sustained impact on U.S. stocks; debt ceiling issues can also be resolved together through budget settlement procedures in the new fiscal year; and tax increases may be the biggest "hidden danger" that leads to a rapid pullback in U.S. stocks.We judge that the two parties may pass a $1 trillion traditional infrastructure plan by the end of September; and after the new fiscal year begins, it is expected that the Democrats will adopt budget settlement procedures to pass the new infrastructure + tax-raising bundled bill (the final scale is expected to be less than $3.5 trillion, and may include an increase in debt ceiling). Investors need to be wary of the risks of the outbreak of tax increases at the end of the third quarter that led to a pullback in US stocks and affecting , Hong Kong stocks, .
US stock company
Amazon plans to launch Kuiper satellite broadband service in the UK, competing with Musk Starlink project
According to reports, Jeff Bezos will bring the battle with Elon Musk to the UK, and Amazon hired a group of lawyers and lobbyists for the upcoming satellite Internet service. The company has hired legal and regulatory executives from the UK, France and Luxembourg satellite companies OneWeb, Eutelsat and Inmarsat to launch Kuiper global satellite broadband service.
At the same time, Amazon and SpaceX, a subsidiary of Musk , fell into a fierce battle of words over the Starlink project (Starlink). Starlink Project is the satellite Internet network of SpaceX company . Amazon lashed out at Musk's actions. Amazon accused the tech billionaire of saying “rules are made for others” last week. The two companies have been arguing over the Starlink program, and Amazon claims the proposal violates U.S. regulations.
Ford will close its factory in India
US Ford Motor Company decided to stop producing cars in India. Ford said on the 9th that it will close its manufacturing operations in Sanand, Gujarat, western India and the southern city of Chennai , which have accumulated losses of more than US$2 billion in the past 10 years. The Indian passenger car market is dominated by affordable small passenger cars produced by Japanese Suzuki Motors and South Korea's Hyundai Motors Indian subsidiaries. The two companies account for a total of 60% of new car sales in India.
Court ruled that Apple did not have an illegal monopoly, and EPIC was dissatisfied: it has filed an appeal
Apple 's APP application store is an important channel for global application and game distribution. Apple has to charge a 30% commission and is called Apple tax . EPICGames launched a key lawsuit with Apple over the matter. However, the judge recently ruled that Apple did not have an illegal monopoly. EPIC was dissatisfied with this and had appealed. Now the US court has ruled that Apple will allow app developers to provide other purchasing channels, while denied EPIC's claim to illegal monopoly on Apple's Fortnite and asked EPIC to pay Apple at least $4 million in breach of contract compensation.
It is reported that the source of the lawsuit war between Apple and Epic Games began in August 2020, when Epic Games tried to bypass the payment system of the Apple app store and avoid Apple's 30% revenue share.
jointly build a maternal and child security system, Pfizer signed a strategic cooperation agreement
html On September 4, at the 2021 China International Service Trade Trade Fair, Pfizer and the Beijing Happy Family Science Popularization Education Public Welfare Promotion Center signed a strategic cooperation agreement to jointly carry out related cooperation on the construction of the maternal and child system and the development of personnel capacity with the theme of "Growing up to the Sun and Embracing Happiness".agreement includes that both parties will jointly help improve the health service capabilities and levels of women and children in my country, provide pregnant women with professional mothers and mothers with full cycle health protection and services, help pregnant women with pregnancy and childbirth guidance, health management, neonatal care and disease prevention, help pregnant women with pregnancy and childbirth safely and smoothly, and make immunity prevention plans for newborns, strive to improve the health level of Chinese women and children, and strive to improve the happiness index of Chinese families.
BHPBM's Cerro Colorado Copper Mine wage agreement is reached, strike risk is lifted
The company said in a statement that after five days of government-led mediation, the union of the CerroColorado Copper Mine in Chile reached a collective contract agreement with mine operator BHP. BHP said the agreement with the First League is valid for 36 months, including a series of improvements to the previous contract.
General Manager of the mine, Alejandro Heilbron, said the conclusion of this collective agreement is very good news and reflects the spirit of cooperation among all parties, which will bring us more united than ever to face the uncertain future of Cerro Colorado. The union voted last month to veto the company's earlier proposal, prompting a period of forced mediation to avoid a strike. Last month, BHP also reached a deal with workers at its large Escondida mine, bringing record gains.
(Article source: Oriental Wealth Research Center)
