On October 24, 2022, my country's oil prices will usher in the 20th round of adjustments this year. At that time, the national gasoline and diesel prices are expected to show new changes, and the same is true for the prices of No. 92, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel. The comprehensive cost of car owners filling a box of gasoline and diesel will also change. Therefore, countless people pay special attention to the new round of price adjustments for refined oil. At the same time, many people often discuss the latest trends in oil prices, just preparing for the adjustment of oil prices.
Of course, according to the latest oil price forecast, the reference crude oil change rate in the third working day of China is 5.69%, which is 0.63 percentage points lower than the previous working day of increase . The oil price forecast is 255 yuan/ton, which is significantly reduced compared with the previous working day, but it is still 200 yuan/ton higher than the price adjustment red line. Therefore, oil prices are still in an upward state. Due to the large cumulative increase currently forecast, the main reference indicators are still at a high position. It is expected that the "12th increase" of refined oil prices this year is already on the way. After all, as time goes by, the country is getting closer and closer to the new round of price adjustment window.
In addition, converted into liter prices, the current latest oil price is expected to rise by 0.19 yuan/liter-0.22 yuan/liter. Although the increase is slightly lower than the previous working day, for private cars with a fuel tank capacity of 50 liters, it will cost at least 10 yuan more to fill a box of gasoline. According to previous practice, this is a significant increase. Therefore, the comprehensive cost of car owners refueling is increased. At that time, it is expected that the daily driving cost will increase, and the living burden and car maintenance cost will also increase. In other words, a sharp rise in oil prices is not good news for consumers, because the increase in refueling costs will cause burdens and pressures on many aspects of life. Therefore, people who often pay attention to oil price trends hope that the price adjustment will decline, but things will not go as they wish.
Secondly, according to the previous oil price adjustment rules, the current domestic diesel price has increased by 0.19 yuan to 0.22 yuan per liter. According to the national average price, the price of No. 92 gasoline has increased by 0.20 yuan/liter, the price of No. 95 gasoline has increased by 0.21 yuan/liter, and the price of No. 0 diesel has increased by 0.21 yuan/liter. For ordinary private cars, it costs about 10 yuan to 11 yuan to fill a box of 50 liters of gasoline and diesel. Although this fee has significantly reduced compared to the first working day of this round of pricing cycle, the overall increase is still not small.
Secondly, affected by the significant production cuts of OPEC+, the long-short game of in the global crude oil futures market has escalated again. At present, the crude oil futures market is undergoing two new changes. One is that speculative capital has returned to the long-short market of crude oil futures, and the other is that many asset management institutions have cut short positions in crude oil futures because they realize that as long as the oil price hovers at a low level, OPEC+ may continue to reduce production significantly until the oil price rebounds to the level they recognize. In addition, concerns about the slowdown in global economic growth in have caused further weakening of crude oil demand expectations, driving international oil prices to fall continuously, with a cumulative decline of nearly 6% in three trading days.
Affected by many factors such as market concerns about oil demand and U.S. inflation situation, international oil prices maintained a downward trend on the 12th. As of the closing of the day, the light crude oil futures price of delivered on November 19th at fell by US$2.08 to close at US$87.27 per barrel, a drop of 2.33%. London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in December fell $1.84 to close at $92.45 per barrel, a drop of 1.95%. Because of this, the forecast increase in refined oil prices in my country continues to shrink. Compared with the first and second working days of this round of pricing, the expected increase in oil prices fell below the 300 yuan/ton mark and gradually moved away from the scope of a sharp drop.
To sum up, because 's concerns about the decline in oil demand continue to put pressure on the market, the oil price forecast increase rate has been reduced to 255 yuan/ton, but it is still much higher than the price adjustment red line. Therefore, it is estimated that the "12th increase" of refined oil prices this year is on the way, and gasoline No. 92 and No. 95 may usher in a significant increase.
