RMB against the US dollar depreciated by about 10% this year, especially in September, which experienced a rapid decline. Although central bank rebounded after 's statement, it still did not return above the integer mark 7.
Some people are worried that according to this depreciation rate, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will soon "break 8", so will it "break 8" within the year? In fact, after seeing the following data, I believe everyone has the answer in their minds.
As Feder aggressive hike rate , U.S. Treasury yields soared, not only abroad, but also domestic banks' dollar deposit interest rates soar. The interest rate for a bank deposit of USD for one-year fixed deposit is as high as 4.27%, which is more than twice the interest rate for RMB deposits.
ICBC Products launched in Beijing, the 1-year deposit interest rate of US$80 million to US$30,000 is 2.8%, the 1-year deposit interest rate of US$30,000 to US$100,000 is 3.2%, and the 1-year deposit interest rate of US$100,000 or more is 3.4%, and the 2-year period is even higher, 3%, 3.3%, and 3.5%, respectively. In Shanghai, ICBC customers with a deposit rate of up to 4% for more than US$100,000.
In terms of Treasury bonds, the yield on the US Treasury bond is 4.18% for one year, 4.28% for two years, and 4.30% for three years. The yields of Chinese government bonds with the same maturity are 1.84% for one-year period, 2-year period, and 2.12% for three-year period, respectively. will understand when you see these data. If you convert the RMB into US dollars, and not mention the exchange rate depreciation for the time being, the interest alone will be much different.
. The Federal Reserve expects to raise interest rates twice this year. Under this background, if there is no external force intervention, then it is a high probability that RMB exchange rate RMB exchange rate will "break 8" within 2 years. If the RMB can be converted freely, it will obviously have "break 8". It is not easy to convert the RMB in your hand to US dollars now. Of course, the US dollar index is at a high level. The risk of exchange of foreign exchange is already very high, because the central bank may take action at any time.
Of course, depreciation is beneficial to exports, but it has a huge impact on real estate and stock markets. Therefore, we, who have huge foreign exchange reserves, are fully capable of intervening. As the world's second largest economy, in the long run, the RMB will "regain its upward trend."
