The US media has been "exploded" these two days.
Yesterday’s report title was "Inside the White House’s failed effort to dissuade OPEC from cutting oil production to avoid a ‘total disaster’".
directly defines the Biden administration's efforts to deal with the energy crisis as "failed" , and even regards the decision to reduce production of "OPEC+" as "complete disaster"!
is so serious?
In fact, this is not an exaggeration!
On the one hand, the whole world knows that the United States is trying to dissuade OPEC + countries from cutting oil production.
For example, a few days ago, CNN was still reporting: The Joe Biden administration requires Kuwait , Saudi Arabia and the UAE to not cut oil production.
even sent a big shot like Yellen to lobby, thinking that he had given enough face, but this was not a good deal.
Who would have thought that as soon as the words were finished, the slap sounded "spang".
On the other hand, the US strategic oil reserves were released at 1 million barrels per day to September 30. As soon as it stopped, the Middle East officially announced a 2 million barrels per day production cut.
This move is very provocative.
Obviously, OPEC has clearly told the United States with practical actions that you and I are no longer strategic alliances.
On the other hand, 11 is the midterm election, and OPEC has decided to cut production now, making the Biden administration's plan to try to curb inflation by controlling energy prices, which is even more difficult.
This is a real stab at Biden in the back!
Look at the crown princes’ "wonderful smile", I wonder if Biden is feeling like he is on pins and pins! ?
But the problem is, why did OPEC organize get on the Russian ship - the largest production cut in the past three years? The reason given by the official press release of
is that "in view of the uncertainty of the global economy and oil market prospects".
Is this true?
Will the reduction in production definitely increase oil prices?
The answer may not be that simple!
Let’s first look at the price of oil futures . New York crude oil futures was still at $120 per barrel in June this year, and then it went down all the way, falling to nearly $70 per barrel in September.
html By September, OPEC had decided to cut production by 100,000 barrels per day.
Of course this is symbolic, but this can be seen as representing the position of the Middle East: Oil prices are low, and we are unhappy! After the production cut, oil prices began to rise, but as the United States began a series of "operations".
On one side, he placed a strategic reserve of 1 million barrels per day; on the other side, he sent Yellen to call the Minister of Finance of the Middle East, warning that "the consequences of production reduction are serious", and was given the hat of "it will cause great damage to the global economy"...
This led to the stable price of oil futures in the range of 80 to 90 US dollars per barrel.
But the problem now is - Beixi was blown up, undersea optical cable was cut, the situation is like this, does it still need everyone to "install" ?
At this time, let’s take a look at what OPEC is most worried about?
For countries like the Middle East, stability is more important than anything else, and the basis for maintaining stability is that everyone is living a good life.
At this time, we will find that the GDP of the Middle East countries is mainly based on oil trade. Once the oil is finished, all foreign trade, tourism, and shipping... will be zeroed.
If the oil is finished, will the princes still sit firmly under their butts?
In other words, if the global economy declines and oil demand decreases, it will be a good ending for these "Middle Eastern princes" to not be hung with street lights!
There is another detail that needs to be noted:
The funeral of the world, British Parliament then talks about human rights, provoking Salman Crown Prince, suggests that the crown prince be prohibited from attending the funeral of the queen.
All the crown princes have arrived, and they will suffer this great humiliation!
Everyone on earth knows that Britain and the United States wear a pair of pants. This move of the United Kingdom completely caused the Middle East to fall down from the European and American camps - woke up !
So the question is, how should , and "energy powers" like Russia defend their rights and interests under the current situation?
In fact, they have no choice at all. Reducing production and increasing oil prices is OPEC's most reasonable choice.
Because the global economic recession is almost inevitable, a reduction in oil consumption is coming soon. In order to maintain the bargaining power, major oil-producing countries can only rebalance the supply and demand relationship through production cuts.
still remember In April 2020, when the epidemic was raging, everyone expected that this would lead to a large-scale contraction of the global economy, which would inevitably lead to a significant reduction in demand for crude oil.
OPEC stumbled on and cut production by 10 million barrels per day that month.
The same is true this time.
On the one hand, the significant production cut reflects the expectations of OPEC for the future global economy.
On the other hand, the princes in the Middle East are also depressed. Why are you allowed to make a fortune in the United States? Even the few energy importing countries in the east of Europe can be intermediaries to eat a full meal. My Middle East prince can only eat so little?
On the other hand, the North Stream was blown up, the undersea optical cable was cut, and Europe was "pinched" into this way, and there was no courage to shout a few times. At this time, if you don't take action first, you will be able to grab the meat and eat it with your own ability, what are you waiting for?
Of course, OPEC's move undoubtedly put the United States on the fire, , but what is the specific effect? Can oil prices really rise?
In fact, determines the underlying logic of oil prices or the supply and demand relationship.
If the production cuts really lead to a sharp rise in oil prices in the short term, then CPI will rise again;
CPI will rise, Feder will continue to raise interest rates ;
This will inevitably lead to the decline of the US and even the global economy, and the expectation of demand for crude oil will continue to decrease.
Then OPEC will face a dilemma:
1. Continue to reduce production;
2. Reduce prices.
In addition, if we extend the time period, we will find that although the current oil price has fallen a lot from its peak, it is still at a high level.
Will oil prices definitely rise after OPEC reduces production?
is not necessarily true!
But it is undeniable that this is already an extremely complicated game!
Especially, we can see that OPEC is actually responsible for taking action. You should know that In April 2020, OPEC reduced its production by 10 million barrels per day.
At present, the production has been reduced by only 2 million barrels per day, which shows that OPEC is waiting for the United States to bid!
I have to say that the current situation is getting more and more fun!
But have you ever thought about a question, why does come together with Russia? Why did they form a united front?
Overseas media all said that is all blamed for a mysterious country in the East.
They said aggressively that it must be that the mysterious power of the East signed a long-term contract with OPEC and locked in fixed prices and purchase volume, ensuring the basic interests of OPEC and Russia.
Only they can consume a huge amount of oil.
Whether this is the case or not is not something that can be found.
But what I want to say is that every drink and every peck has a fixed number. If does not have the arrogance and prejudice of Europe and the United States, how can we have a good relationship with us?
"Make friends more and enemies less" has always been the magic weapon of our "unified front"!
