[Current Affairs Observation] What is the impact of the far-right victory on Italy and the EU. Italy recently held parliamentary elections, and the far-right party, the Italian Brothers, became the largest party, and the party's leader, Georgia Meloni, is expected to serve as pri

[Current Affairs Observation] The far-right wing victory on Italy and EU Geometry

Italy recently held parliamentary elections, and the far-right party Italian Brothers became the largest party, and the party's leader Georgia Meloni is expected to serve as prime minister. Although some European media are concerned that Italy's political situation "turning to the right" will have an impact on the EU, analysts believe that the new Italian government is generally likely to continue its previous EU policy and it also faces considerable challenges at home.

Italian parliament Election vote was held on September 25. Data released by the Italian Ministry of Interior on September 26 showed that the center-right alliance composed of the Italian Brothers, the Alliance Party and the Italian Forces Party received about 44% of the votes, of which the Italian Brothers received 26%, making it the largest single party in the parliament; the center-left party alliance received 26%, of which the Democratic Party received 19%; and the Five-Star Movement Party received about 15%.

The Italian Parliament is composed of the Senate and the House of Representatives, Senate and have 200 seats and 400 seats in the House of Representatives. According to votes, the center-right will receive more than half of the seats in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. The center-right coalition has previously reached an agreement to elect the leader of the party with the highest votes as prime minister, which means Meloni is expected to become Italy's first female prime minister. However, specific candidates for prime minister still need to wait for presidential nomination, and the results of the cabinet formation must also pass the Parliament's vote of confidence.

According to Italian media reports, Meloni, 45, was born in Rome and was elected as a member of the House of Representatives in 2006. In 2008, 31-year-old Meloni became the youngest minister in the Berlusconi government. In 2012, Meloni participated in the establishment of the Italian Brotherhood Party and was elected leader of the party in 2014.

In the 2018 Italian parliamentary elections, the Italian Brothers formed an alliance with the Alliance Party and the Italian Power Party, but the party received only 4.5% of the votes. In 2020, Meloni was elected president of the European Conservative and Reformers Alliance. Before this election, the poll support rate of the Italian brothers' party was around 25%, and the outside world generally expected that the party would win the election.

Some media analysis pointed out that the victory of the Italian brotherly party is first due to the people's dissatisfaction with the status quo. Since the beginning of this year, the epidemic in Italy has been repeated, and the rise in energy and raw material prices have led to inflation , and the economic situation is severe. Although the government led by Draghi took some measures, it caused differences within the ruling coalition, and Draghi was forced to resign. Faced with this situation, the people are eager to restore stability to the political situation.

The Italian brothers led by Meloni are the only major parties who have not participated in the Draghi government, so the party has portrayed itself as a "spokesperson" who is dissatisfied with the status quo. Meloni not only responded to voters' economic concerns during the campaign, but his Italian interests priority and anti-immigration propositions also attracted a number of voters.

In addition, Meloni's campaign strategy also played a certain role in winning the election. She formed an alliance with the Coalition Party led by Salvini and the Italian Power Party led by Berlusconi very early. Focusing on creating personal image and actively using social media to narrow the distance with voters has also accumulated a certain amount of popularity for her.

Many European media are worried about the victory of the Italian brothers, the far-right party, and believe that Italian politics will "turn to the right" and there will be cracks in the relationship between Italy and the EU. However, analysts pointed out that judging from the political trend of Italy in recent years, the policy propositions of far-right parties often become moderate after they come to power. If Meloni becomes prime minister, it may bring about some policy changes, but the relationship between Italy and the EU will not be completely stagnant.

In Italy, the new government will face challenges such as rising energy prices, high inflation and weak economic growth. The turnout rate of this election is only 63.9%, indicating that a considerable number of voters are on the wait-and-see attitude towards whether the election can bring about changes. It is also worth paying attention to whether the center-right league can maintain unity. There are many differences between the Italian Brotherhood and the Coalition Party on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and some domestic reform issues.

In fact, the Italian Brotherhood is not the only party in Italy that has emerged in recent years.In the 2018 parliamentary elections, the center-right alliance won the first vote, but the anti-EU and anti-immigration five-star movement party became the largest political party, and the then leader of the party Di Maio was once glorious. Since then, the support rate of the Coalition Party has soared. Salvini once tried to win the position of prime minister, but failed and his supporters also flowed to the Italian Brotherhood. Now that Meloni has become the "vanguard" of the right-wing camp, I wonder if she can gain a foothold in politics?

Regarding the relationship between Italy and the EU, Meloni clearly expressed his support for the policies of Western countries on the Ukraine issue, and emphasized that they would comply with EU rules. Italy is the biggest beneficiary of EU recovery funds, with an estimated €200 billion by 2026. The new government needs the 200 billion euros to cope with domestic economic challenges, so it is unlikely to have a stalemate with the EU. A "right" Italy may emphasize its own interests more, but the premise is within the EU's framework.

In addition, the victory of the Italian brothers' election triggered cheers from far-right parties in other European countries, and Hungary, Poland and and other countries also congratulated Meloni. Analysts believe that the EU is currently experiencing multiple crises, and if the far-right parties take charge of Italy, the EU's solidarity and stability may face more severe tests.

Bi Zhenshan

(Worker Daily)