coal once created one myth after another in the business world. At its peak, coal bosses from all over the country earned tens of millions of dollars a day, married daughters with high profile, and married female stars with a rich reputation. It is still the best topic of conversation after dinner. This is the most distinctive microcosm of the era of wealth creation in China. The magical thing is that the last coal era ended, and the next era has just begun.
Recently, many coal companies have shown their performance in 2021. As expected, every family is overjoyed. The stock prices of China Shenhua , Yanzhou Energy, and China Coal Energy hit new highs one after another. Taking "China Shenhua", which has always been the most proud and has raised the dividends of A shares by oneself as an example, in 2021, the company achieved operating income of 335.216 billion yuan, and increased by 443.7% year-on-year; not only that, China Shenhua also released a cash dividend plan for 2021, intending to pay cash dividends of approximately RMB 50.466 billion to all shareholders.
When the stock market was green, people were panicked, but the coal index rose by more than 10% in 10 trading days, and hit a new high since 2008. Among them, China Shenhua doubled, and Shaanxi Coal Industry hit a record high. The reversal came unexpectedly. On April 19, the coal concept stock continued to fall, Yancoal Energy fell by more than 10%, Yitai Coal fell by nearly 8%, China Coal Energy fell by more than 5%, Yimao and China Shenhua fell by nearly 5%.
Can "Coal Flying Se Dance" continue? As bulk goods continue to rise in prices and have outstanding performance, no one seems to take the short-term decline in mind.
will never wake up people who pretend to be asleep
It is undeniable that there are two obvious contradictory trends in the current domestic energy market: First, the transformation of the energy consumption structure is a long-term game, but the pace of economic production cannot stay for energy iteration; second, the growth rate of emerging industries remains high, but the supply of shortcomings in the industrial chain has been delayed.
In April, the Wind coal index fell 2.53%, the largest drop in the past month. Most people who are not optimistic about coal have placed their hopes of reversal on new energy. In the past two years, the new energy industry has become increasingly fierce, and the reshaping of the energy consumption structure seems to be just a matter of one day or one night.
Judging from various data disclosed by the official, the domestic energy situation is indeed undergoing some microscopic changes. Taking power resources as an example, at the end of 2021, the national installed power generation capacity was 2376.92 million kilowatts, an increase of 7.9% over the end of last year. Specifically, the installed capacity of hydropower was 390.92 million kilowatts, an increase of 5.6%; the installed capacity of nuclear power was 53.26 million kilowatts, an increase of 6.8%.
What is more competitive is grid-connected wind power and solar power generation. Last year, the installed capacity of wind power was 328.48 million kilowatts, an increase of 16.6%, and the installed capacity of solar power generation was 306.56 million kilowatts, an increase of 20.9%. In comparison, the installed capacity of traditional thermal power was 1296.78 million kilowatts, an increase of only 4.1%.
Domestic electricity demand has risen with the growth of productivity. Last year, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 14.7% compared with the same period two years ago, with an average annual increase of more than 7%. Expanding electricity production is imperative, and new energy's determination to change the energy consumption structure is gradually becoming more prominent.
Of course, energy demand has been rising year by year, and when other sectors are not yet fully mature, the presence of coal cannot be disappeared. It is worth noting that in terms of price, unlike last year, the coal price this year is still stable. For example, the settlement price of thermal coal futures is running around 800 yuan/ton, and the market price of thermal coal Qinhuangdao Port fell to 1,000 yuan/ton. It is inevitable that thermal coal will weaken slightly from April to May from the off-season.
Only the capital market is caring, which is a very interesting phenomenon. The stock prices of coal companies seem to be unbinding the coal price. Orchid Science and Technology Innovation , Jizhong Energy , and Yankuang Energy have risen by 57.95%, 39.38% and 57.67% respectively since the beginning of this year. New energy is just the opposite. According to the data from the first quarter report of Putailai this year, the proportion of the new energy theme reduction in ABC Huili's new energy theme exceeded 13%, and the proportion of the China Energy Innovation reduction in positions exceeded 5%.
Putailai's stock price has been adjusted to around 120 yuan per share in recent times since it exceeded 200 yuan per share at the end of November last year.
The market environment is in a state of grief, and the mentality of making quick money is replacing the original long-term wait-and-seeness of investment. The decline in coal cannot stop the enthusiasm of investors. After all, the dividends of coal companies continued to stimulately stimulate the capital market last year. As of now, among the 18 listed coal companies that have disclosed their 2021 annual reports, China Shenhua plans to distribute 50.4 billion yuan in cash, with a dividend rate of up to 100.4%. In addition, Yanzhou Coal Energy, Pingmei Co., Ltd. , and ST Dayou also have a dividend rate of more than 60% in 2021.
No matter whether the reality changes or remains unchanged, no one can wake up a group of people pretending to be asleep.
Please answer 2022, coal companies escaped from "coal super crazy"
Last year, the coal market experienced extreme surges, and the stock prices, performance and dividends of coal companies attracted the attention of investors everywhere. In 2022, no matter what the future market for coal is, investors' attitudes are confident and tolerant, but coal companies obviously do not have that much patience.
Recently, major media have successively issued long-term business plans for the future, basically focusing on new energy. In January, China Shenhua said on the investor interaction platform that the company plans to accelerate the development of new energy plans, including photovoltaics and wind power. Coincidentally, another coal company, , Yanzhou Coal , is also launching a large-scale attack on the new energy field.
As early as the end of 2021, Yanzhou Coal was renamed Yanzhou Coal Energy, and based on the existing industrial layout, it added five major industrial development directions, including new energy, high-end chemical new materials, and smart logistics . It is reported that Yankuang Energy plans to reach more than 10 million kilowatts of installed capacity of new energy power generation in five to ten years, and the supply capacity of hydrogen exceeds 100,000 tons/year.
Thanks to the soaring coal prices last year, coal companies do have the ability to open up new businesses. Some institutions have estimated that at the end of the third quarter of 2021, the coal industry's cash fund was 429.7 billion yuan, 2.5 times that of the end of 2016. Of course, in 2022, the reason why coal companies accelerate their "escape" from coal is not just as simple as equality between funds and new businesses. Under the background of the dual-carbon goal, everything is natural.
Coal companies have experienced a year of "winning" and the days ahead may not be so leisurely.
From a long-term perspective, under the squeeze of the new energy market, it is an indisputable fact that the future potential of newly-launched coal mines in China has begun to shrink. According to the survey, the newly-promoted coal mine production capacity in 2021 is 38.1 million tons, far lower than the scale in 2017 to 19. More importantly, 7.2 million tons of approved projects are used to build mines without approval. Generally, the construction cycle of newly built 30.9 million tons of coal mines is about 4 to 5 years. This means that after 2023, newly put into production will drop rapidly. Coal companies' entry into new energy may be a kind of obscure self-protection.
In addition, will coal prices continue to soar in 2022?
This involves the import market. It is true that domestic imported coal has become a key component of energy supply since 2010, accounting for an average of 5% to 7% per year. In 2021, the foreign trade environment was already declining. Specifically in terms of resource imports, in the past six months, coal imports during the same period were 34.43 million tons less than the previous year. In 2022, the geopolitical conflict next door is well known. From January to February, the cumulative domestic imports of coal and lignite html were 435.39 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14%.
According to normal logic, there is more demand and less supply, and the coal market should be further favorable. But in 2022, in order to prevent the recurrence of coal surge last year, most coal companies have signed long-term contract prices, including Power Investment Energy, Yanzhou Coal Energy, and Jinguan Coal Industry. In other words, the total growth space of the coal sector is far less than what the outside world thinks.
Plus, the domestic adjustment of coal import structure has a good buffer effect. Since 2021, China has completed the adjustment of import structure within 10 months, which has successively supplemented the gaps in Australia and Mongolia. Moreover, the cumulative import volume from January to October turned positive to +1.9% year-on-year. In the first three quarters of 2021, the total monthly maximum import volume of each import country was 34.46 million tons, and the annual maximum import capacity was 414 million tons.
In the past two years, the biggest variable in domestic coal imports is Indonesia . Indonesia has accumulated a long-term accumulation of coal supply gap, and the production area is frequently affected by extreme weather and force majeure, resulting in a tight coal supply in the country. Facing national electricity pressure, it can only start to compress exports.Will this cause a panic stimulation to my country's coal market?
Objectively speaking, Indonesia's coal quality is average, with medium-level accounting for 62% and low-level accounting for 24%. Coal with a calorific value of more than 6100kcal/kg accounts for only 14%, while Indonesia's coal supply only accounts for 6.6% of the Chinese market in total. Coal has passed the absurdity of 2021, and no matter how popular it is, it will always cool down.
The bulk water is too deep, retail investors can't hold on to
21, the performance of commodity is amazing. As of December last year, the commodity index S&P GSCI, composed of 24 exchange-traded futures contracts among the five physical commodity sectors, rose by about 32%. In addition to coal, the domestic futures market, varieties such as iron ore, glass, rebar, and futures also hit the daily limit from time to time.
On major social platforms, words such as "unarmed", "lost the thirst", "looking for coal to quench thirst", "traveling the snow to find coal", "letting down the glass" all portray investors' urgent and helpless emotions. For a long time, foreign countries have had the habit of investing in commodities for to hedge the risks of equity investment and bonds in . After last year, some foreign investment institutions even suggested that retail investors increase the proportion of commodities in their portfolios to 10% or more.
There are two main ways for retail investors to invest in commodities: one is to buy funds that hold commodities, and the other is to buy stocks of commodities-related concept companies. But one thing to note is that the price change cycle of commodities is destined to be too deep in this field, and it is by no means possible for retail investors to control it.
As early as 2016, the Diplomatic Review mentioned that the price fluctuations of in global commodities are now difficult to explain by the commodity supply relationship, but are extremely susceptible to many external force majeure factors. Taking the global financial crisis in 2008 as an example, there were many commodities affected by the environment that year. In just over five months in the second half of that year, the price of copper in London plummeted from US$8,904.5 per ton at the range high of US$2,825 on December 23, a drop of 68.3%.
Oil prices rose five times from 2003 to 2008. After the financial crisis, oil prices plummeted to around $34 per barrel, and soon two years later, they rose to $80. After the British Industrial Revolution , commodities have experienced a total of four super cycles, and the inducing factors include industrialization, economic environment, energy structure and war conflicts... After each climax, there is inevitably a mess.
Domestic Yunnan Copper Industry is a typical example. It is reported that the company's stock price is about to exceed 100 yuan at its peak, but after the popularity has passed, the stock price has fluctuated between 10-20 yuan for more than ten years. To this day, the competition between global commodities has gradually increased from the scale of production capacity to the supply chain market. For investors, undercurrents are surging under the calm lake.
It has to be admitted that the world's largest commodity supply chain service companies are all overseas, such as Switzerland Glencore, Switzerland Mercorie, Singapore Tok Group, Switzerland Vito, UK Laibo . It is not that there is no such thing as domestic supply, but compared with the entire field of overseas commodities, it is more concentrated in one market, such as oil, minerals, etc.
There are not many comprehensive giants, and perhaps only Cedar Holdings can compete with overseas ones. This company is known as "China's Glencore" and once entered the Fortune 500 in 2018 and 2019. As for other small and medium-sized enterprises, the gross profit margin of commodity supply chain business is already low, and even Cedar Holdings' gross profit margin is below 1% all year round.
The global commodity market is changing rapidly, and the purchasing rights cannot be raised, so it is difficult for downstream to accurately judge future trends. If companies are like this, why should retail investors force them?
Ki Finance, in-depth and interesting good luck. This article is an original article, and any form of reproduction without retaining the author's relevant information is not allowed.
