Last Friday, the American personal computer processor giant AMD (NASDAQ: AMD), due to poor financial reports, its stock price plummeted 13.9% that day, and its market value evaporated by US$15.2 billion, and its cumulative decline this year is nearly 60%.
A leaf tells autumn, this is a signal, a strong signal.
AMD's poor financial report not only indicates that the US personal computer and laptop market is bad, but also affects the US chip industry and the global chip industry.
plus the poor sales of mobile phones worldwide since this year, such difficulties will spread to other technology industries.
So, does this mean that this is just the beginning, and there will be more and more bad financial reports in the future? When corporate profits fall, will the US and the world economy usher in an economic recession?
Some people may think that in the personal computer processor market, AMD is not as good as Intel , so it cannot be inferred from this that the prospects of the personal computer and chip industry are not good, and it may be just a case of AMD and cannot represent the industry. Let’s first compare the stock price trend charts of AMD and Intel over the past five years. The blue curve on the screen is AMD, and the yellow part is Intel. We see that Intel's stock price has remained flat for the past five years, or even fell. Compared with five years ago, Intel's stock price has fallen by 37%. AMD rose 305%. The performance of the two stocks is completely different, and the difference is far. The reason why
AMD's performance has won and crushed Intel is because in recent years, AMD has caught up with Intel in terms of high-end CPU processors and image processors, and even surpassed Intel.
Judging from yesterday's market value, AMD's market value is US$93 billion and Intel's market value is US$103 billion. The two are almost the same. If it were 10 years ago, the market value of the two companies was very different.
So AMD's poor financial report can be regarded as a microcosm of the industry. Moreover, AMD's financial report is not just bad, but AMD's financial report forecast for the next quarter is not as good as market expectations.
The reason is that the demand for personal computers (PCs), including weakening of server demand. In addition, global mobile phone shipments have dropped sharply before, which is a very bad signal for the overall chip market. The decline in demand for personal computers and mobile phones has also caused the demand for peripheral information products such as memory chips and display cards to decline. This is a long list of declines in demand.
AMD's financial report was not good, South Korea's Samsung Electronics' financial report the day before was not good, Intel's financial report in July was not good, and its PC business revenue decreased by 25% year-on-year. Let's not give examples one by one. In late October, many large American companies will report financial reports, including all walks of life, and there will be more information at that time.
Three months ago, we made an argument. At that time, the US stock market rose from a year-on-year low. From June 17 to August 16, the U.S. stock market saw a wave of upsurge, with the Dow Jones rising 13%. The increase in just two months exceeded 10%, which is a big market.
Therefore, some analysts in the United States said that inflation still exists, but there has been a turning point. Even if the U.S. stock market falls again in the future, it will not be like the lows in June. These analysts' statements are decisive!
We have been sing opposites to Feder , US Treasury Secretary Yelen , and many American analysts since March last year. We say that inflation will be a big problem for the United States.
Three months ago, in response to the big wave of the US stock market, we also said that in addition to looking at future inflation data, we must look at the financial reports of US listed companies, especially the financial reports of large companies.
AMD's financial report is the first shot, the first thunder. , and the focus is not on the financial reports of these large companies for the quarter, but on the guidance of future financial reports. If the financial report forecast is not good, it will be a new wave of stock market decline.
Let’s first verify whether those analysts’ statements are correct.
The Dow Jones Index's 6-month trend chart is on the screen. The index in recent days has been lower than the June low. The S&P 500 index is the same as the Nasdaq index .
Last March, we launched a program about inflation in the United States, "The Sino-US Inflation War This is a new battlefield for the Sino-US game." Since then, some American analysts, investment bank , have been often inaccurate, often optimistic, and overly optimistic.
This includes Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen. Of course, let alone the statements of American politicians.
Today we have put forward another new argument, because of the US sanctions on China, chip sanctions, and other technology sanctions, this will affect the revenue of the US technology industry, especially the revenue of chip-related industries, thereby affecting its profits. The impact of
will be forced back, and we will first expand from the chip-related industries in the United States to other electronic-related fields. This is a superposition effect.
This is from: first, inflation begins.
Due to the general rise in prices in the United States in the past two years, over time, it will affect the purchasing power of the American people. The US economy is highly dependent on consumption, which will eventually drag down US economic growth.
Last year, the US government did not care much about inflation, and thought the United States had a way to deal with inflation . In fact, the impact of high inflation on the economy is not in the first year, but in the second and third years, in the future.
The United States is now in a chaotic period. If you want to raise interest rates quickly, you are afraid that the rate hike will be too fast, which will crush the stock market, bond market, and real estate markets. If you want to accelerate the reduction of balance sheet , you are afraid that you will withdraw funds too quickly, and the US asset market will collapse suddenly.
So, the US side thought of a way to return funds. In fact, the Fed has blown up the horn of rate hikes , which has already formed the effect of attracting money from the world. However, these repatriated funds have not entered the US asset market, and a large proportion of them have entered the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase , which is equivalent to preferring to lend money to the Fed, rather than earn interest from the Fed than entering the US asset market.
In late September, the scale of the use of the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool was close to US$2.4 trillion, an unprecedented scale. In other words, the Fed's interest rate hike, coupled with the Russian-Ukrainian war's driving funds, did cause a lot of funds to flow into the United States, but many of them went into the Fed's reverse repurchase.
Second, the idea of the United States fighting overseas wars.
Because by this time, the Fed has no choice and there are not many tools available in the toolbox. What should I do? Therefore, the old tricks and old methods have been added again, and the original tools have been added to force them to use them. So, we have seen some storms, the Baltic natural gas pipeline was bombed, and the Crimea Bridge was bombed, causing a lot of war smoke to be added to the Ukrainian sky, which was originally in war.
Content on March 5 this year, "China and Russia return to the United States, war and inflation." The United States has faced high inflation, and the Russian-Ukraine war has pushed up global energy prices, which has put the United States in greater difficulties in inflation.
What we said half a year ago is still in my mind. The United States can still take the method of taking the fire and fight the idea. From the Ukrainian counterattack that began in September, it was until the natural gas pipelines of Nord Stream-1 and Nord Stream-2 were blown up, and then the Crimea Bridge was blown up, one after another.
The US side’s idea is that although the Russian-Ukraine war pushed up global energy prices, it also pushed up inflation. But the United States thinks this way, war can force more funds to enter the United States.Even at this stage, these funds entering the United States have not purchased American assets, but it doesn’t matter. After a while, maybe half a year or a year, these funds may still purchase American assets. How to operate?
As long as Europe is ruined, under the effect of bad luck, the US economy will still be better than Europe anyway. These funds entering the US will eventually purchase US assets.
Let's look at the situation in Europe. The rising energy prices in Europe have forced European countries to breathe. Then, the natural gas pipelines of Nord Stream-1 and Nord Stream-2 were bombed, which cut off Europe's last hope. The European economy will only worsen in winter. With the bleak prospects, some European industries have left one after another.
Then the Crimea Bridge was bombed, which caused strong revenge in Russia. However, Russia's retaliation against Ukraine forced European countries to take a tougher stance against Russia. Germany announced on the day Russia retaliated against bombing that it would provide Ukraine with air defense missile systems as soon as possible.
French President Macron also said that if Ukraine needs military weapons, France will do its best to help. Macron is also afraid of falling behind Germany in this matter.
What does it mean to drive a duck and put it on the shelves? The US and Ukraine worked together to perform this drama, and the European ducks were driven up and had to deal with Russia.
This is the US's wishful thinking. Although the US faces the adverse factors of war and inflation at the same time, the US has forced the war card again. Nothing else, it's because Europe works well. Europe now does not need to engage in conspiracy at all. Even if they know that this is a conspiracy, they will be put on airs.
Third, since the US side has the idea of making Europe, it naturally cannot let China go.
The reason is that although Europe can be easily broken, in comparison, overseas funds will naturally choose the United States. However, we have to pull China down the same way. Because if the US economy is not good, it will make Europe's economy worse. Under such circumstances, China's economy cannot be made unique.
The three largest economies in the United States, China and Europe, . Only when the other two sides are bad can the future prospects of the US economy be demonstrated. How can we let China go? In this way, the funds will enter the United States and then purchase American assets.
Therefore, within more than a month, the United States has successively introduced measures to block China's chips. The US must let China's economy go down.
understands the means and purposes of the United States. Next is how China and Russia respond and how will it respond?
Our content also hopes to provide you with suggestions on countermeasures for your reference.
China and Russia will also fall on the three points just mentioned.
first, In terms of inflation, the United States wants to solve the problem of inflation, so on the one hand, Beijing must keep domestic inflation at a relatively low point. On the other hand, it will keep the U.S. inflation at a high point.
In terms of energy and some natural resources, Russia provides preferential prices for long-term contracts to China, which will put China's inflation at a relatively low level.
In terms of supply chain, China is the world's supply chain center and industrial production center. In addition to the chip industry, China has advantages over any country and maintains the stability of the supply chain.
These two aspects are controlled by China. As for other uncontrollable parts, the US will commit suicide by itself. For example, the situation of the Middle East, , oil-producing countries, OPEC+ announced last week that it would cut production by 2 million barrels per day starting from November. The production cut measures of OPEC+ immediately increased international oil prices.
These grievances and grievances, right and wrong, do not require China to come forward, nor do China need to deal with them. The US will trap itself in.
second, In the Russian-Ukrainian war, if Russia does not change its plan and wants to occupy more land, Russia's retaliation measures can be stopped in moderation. Then, after a period of time, the measures to aid Ukraine by Europe will continue to be indifferent. This is when soldiers come to block the water and soil. The US has a plan and Russia has a countermeasure.
Of course, after a period of time, the US side will come up with new ideas and new chaos.
3rd, The United States imposed two consecutive waves of chip sanctions on China, and China only has one way to deal with it, increase the proportion of chip domestication and increase the self-made rate.
increases the proportion of domestic production and increases the proportion of overseas import substitution, which can be applied not only in the chip industry, but also in other industries. "Import substitution" is a powerful weapon for China. Once China develops the same technology, products of this type of door will become cheap.
For example, China's new energy vehicle exports have reached the world's first place. According to news two days ago, German car rental company Sixt said that it has signed a new cooperation agreement with BYD , and will purchase about 100,000 electric vehicles from BYD in the next few years.
is deduced in this way. On the one hand, the United States blocks chips and equipment for China, and on the other hand, it has established a chip alliance and launched the " Chip and Science Act ". The United States wants to encircle the global chip industry into its own country.
According to the US plan, it is very interesting at the time point. For example, if the US side takes 3 to 5 years to complete these plans, during this period, if China can achieve a high degree of localization in 7nm or 14nm process, and at the same time it has production scale and benefits, then the US side spends huge amounts of money and production costs and toughly builds the chip industry chain, ultimately not competitive compared with China's costs, then these newly built production capacity and factory buildings will be rotten there.
This is the power of industrial substitution. There is nothing to say, if China cannot do it, it will be fine. Once it is done, it can crush the other party in terms of price competitiveness. This is the Chinese-style Xiao Li flying knife skill "is the right example". As long as it is technically done, the opponent will have to lie down.
As for, the United States does not sell chips and related equipment to China, nor does it allow other countries to sell it. Although this move is ruthless, as global demand declines, the United States will also put itself at risk.
would be fine if it was normal. In the economic boom, these chip and equipment manufacturers only made less money, but when the prosperity was bad, it would be a big blow. Let's take a look at the picture again.
screen is TSMC's ADR stock price trend chart in the United States. From the high of $140 at the beginning of the year to $63 yesterday, the decline was 55%, more than half.
Three weeks ago, we expressed our views on TSMC's future prospects. "TSMC's sorrows are mass-produced from 14nm to 7nm"
. Someone protested that the content of that issue said that Taiwan's stock price trend chart should be counted. On the screen is the stock price trend chart of TSMC in Taiwan, from a high of 683 yuan at the beginning of the year to 401 yuan at the close of yesterday, a drop of 41%, which is slightly better.
We have put forward several "reminders" about TSMC's stock price trend, and I hope netizens will pay attention.
The key point is that these chips and semiconductor equipment manufacturers are not allowed to be sold to China, and they lack revenue from China. When the industry is in a downturn, both revenue and profit will be damaged.
If you have to evaluate the United States' chip blockade on China, the previous restrictions on China on high-end chips and devices were a powerful move. However, Biden and have increased their investment in , limiting China's chip exports of 16/14nm and equipment restrictions. This is not a trick.
Because at this level, the proportion of domestic production in China has increased, and in some time, the proportion will increase even more.So, American chip and equipment manufacturers should prepare their production capacity to be broken in their own factories!
Let's make a conclusion:
It is estimated that the global economy will deteriorate or recession may be within the next year, up to two years.
The decline of the three major U.S. indexes all exceeded 20%, entering a bear market. Historically, when the US stock market entered a bear market, it was almost always accompanied by an economic recession. It is very difficult for Biden and the Fed to turn the tide.
Therefore, the competition between China and the United States in the past two years will be very fierce and exciting. The two sides will continue to compete and fight in energy, inflation and supply chains, and the US will not stop taking action.
and then superimpose the Russian-Ukrainian war and the Taiwan Strait issue, which is a comprehensive competition.
Let’s first observe the quarterly financial report of the United States in the next two weeks.
Today's analysis and reasoning ends here. This is the current commentary of Yang Feng in Fengyun World. Thank you for watching, we will see you next time.
(Author: Yang Feng Public Account: Yang Feng)
