===Foundation reading===
shrinking cross star implies that the change of the market is coming soon. Friday's final battle will choose the direction
Thursday, after a slight high opening, the market fluctuated and lowered. In the afternoon, driven by the theme stocks, the Shanghai Composite Index once hit 3400 points, but dived again in the late trading. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was 3387 points, up 0.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index was 11566 points, up 0.63%, and the ChiNext Index was 2485 points, up 0.00%. The total turnover of the two markets was 749.7 billion yuan, and the trading volume declined. The cross star of the shrinking volume implies that the change of the market is imminent, and the final battle will be chosen.
Table
Shanghai Index lost 3400 points and
On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index once hit 3400 points, but dived again in the late trading, closing at 3387 points, and the ChiNext closed flat. From the perspective of sector concepts, Shenzhen's state-owned assets reform, sports, large aircraft, and environmental protection have the highest growth, and concepts such as military industry and beautiful China have also performed well.
The top five stocks with net capital inflow yesterday were: Suning Yunshang (market 002024, consultation), Meiyan Jixiang (market 600868, consultation), Luoyang Glass (market 600876, consultation), Zhongguancun (market 000931, consultation), and Rabbit Baby (market 002043, consultation). Among them, Luoyang Glass, Zhongguancun, and Rabbit Baby hit the daily limit, Suning Yunshang and Meiyan Jixiang each rose by more than 3% and 7%. The top five stocks with net outflow of funds are: Jinzheng Co., Ltd. (market 600446, consulting), Shenyang Machine Tool (market 000410, consulting), Shenzhou High-speed Railway (market 000008, consulting), China CRRC (market 601766, consulting), and Wanxiang Qianchao (market 000559, consulting), among which Jinzheng Co., Ltd. gained a daily limit. Jinzheng shares are local stocks in Shenzhen. On Thursday, Shenzhen local stocks staged a wave of daily limit. In addition to Jinzheng shares, there are also 15 individual stocks such as Shenzhen South Electric A (market 000037, consultation), Shenzhen Sage (market 000058, consultation) and other 15 stocks hit the daily limit.
news, these things may affect the trend of A-shares: 1. The full text of the communiqué of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was announced; 2. China and Germany signed 13 cooperation documents including finance; 3. The financing balance of the two cities stopped rising for four consecutive times; 4. The first China Internet Security Leaders Summit will be held in Beijing in early November; 5. The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged and retains the possibility of interest rate hikes in December.
stock
"monster stocks" staged a feast of daily limit
Yesterday, "monster stocks" showed their power again. As of the close, Teli A (market 000025, consultation), Qianneng Hengxin (market 300191, consultation), Haixin Food (market 002702, consultation), Rabbit Baby, Shanghai Putian (market 600680, consultation), Luoyang Glass collectively hit the daily limit, staged a feast of "monster stocks".
Last Friday, the spokesperson of the China Securities Regulatory Commission Deng Ke revealed that the dealer of Tel A was fined 1.3 billion yuan for suspected manipulation of Tel A. Telli A hit the daily limit for the last two trading days, but then Telli A hit the daily limit for two consecutive days on Wednesday and Thursday. "Even the main force of Tel A is still working hard, what reason do you have to choose to give up?" Tel A's "demonic nature remains unchanged" has triggered various ridicule in the market.
Looking at recent stock stars, Tel A is not alone. Stocks with super trends such as Haixin Food, Shanghai Putian, Qianneng Hengxin, Meiyan Jixiang and Luoyang Glass can be said to be exclusive. Qiang Neng, which was inquired by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for 13 consecutive daily limit increases, responded the night before yesterday that one of the reasons for the rise in the company's stock price is the need for a technical rebound. In less than 15 minutes yesterday, Qianneng Hengxin hit the daily limit again. Compared with the net profit loss of 17.35 million in the third quarter report, the year-on-year decline of up to 190.87%, it can only make people sigh that the "technical rebound" of the A-share market is really willful!
. When sorting out the capital context behind the "monster stocks", Jiangsu and Zhejiang hot money that is invisible in the market is still the main driving force. Industry insiders believe that some investors and even some private equity funds are looking for stocks with potential for monster stocks in order to make huge profits. However, "monster stocks" often have small plates, average performance and even lose money, which makes the market form a bad atmosphere of black and white reversal and inferior wins and superior wins. "Monster stocks" are uncertain, and the stock price top is difficult to predict, so investors need to be cautious when catching monsters.
The future market
The final battle will choose the direction
Friday is the closing day of October. The shrinking cross star indicates that the bulls and bears are in a balance, and the change is coming. Should we stop falling and rebound or relay the decline? The market will inevitably make a directional choice in the short term.If the final battle in October can be strong and volume-driven, then a good start in November is expected. If the volume continues to fluctuate on Friday, the time for the market to adjust will be longer and the adjustment range will be increased.
Jufeng Investment Consulting believes that with the continuous rise of individual stocks in the early stage, the market's short-term upward pressure has become prominent, and with the superposition of profit-taking selling pressure, the difficulty of upward indexes has increased. However, pension funds will be fully launched next year, and the role of long-term funds entering the market in the market is expected to gradually reflect the market bottoming out, and the room for pullback is limited, and it is still a good opportunity to increase positions when the price drops are low.
China AVIC Securities believes that there are two very obvious directions in the market at present: 1. A group of "monster stocks" have appeared since Tel A. At present, these "monster stocks" are still performing strongly, but not suitable for most investors; 2. The sectors that benefit from the 13th Five-Year Plan, such as big health, environmental protection, intelligent machines, Internet finance, etc., are still performing strongly, but only the leaders in these sectors have performed the strongest. In addition, a new hot spot emerged yesterday, which is Shenzhen local stocks, and radical investors need to focus on tracking. #JRJ page break#
A shares reappear in a shrinking cross star. Is the decline relay or the momentum to rise? ||###||###||###
A shares reappeared in a cross of shrinking volume. Is the decline relay or the momentum to rise?
Analysts pointed out that yesterday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange volume shrank below 300 billion yuan, and the ChiNext also shrank by 40% compared with the previous period's highest volume of more than 170 billion yuan, indicating that the number of investors actively participating in the market has decreased
cross star hidden three major phenomena
Question: Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a volatile trend. The three major stock indexes, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and the ChiNext Index closed a small negative cross star, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed a small positive cross star, and the volume showed a shrinking trend. How do you view this cross star shrinking volume and what kind of market information does it release?
Bandung, Guangzhou: Yesterday, the cross star hidden three amazing visions. First, although the market stopped falling on Thursday, the volume decreased significantly, indicating that the market was cautious in a wave of selling, and the endless stopping of falling is more of a relay signal for selling; second, the stocks with a daily limit on Thursday decreased significantly, and there were not many stocks with a daily limit increase of more than 5%, but the number of stocks with a daily limit decreases, indicating that the market is insufficient long-term, while the short-term short-term strength is increasing; finally, the ChiNext Index frequently plunged, and the leading leader in this round of growth has frequently plunged, indicating that its internal chips have loosened and the short-term downward pressure will be greater. Therefore, with these three major visions emerging, yesterday's cross star is more of a signal of selling down, especially the risk of selling down in the future of the GEM stocks will be greater.
Jiuding Desheng: From the perspective of volume indicators, the reason why the GEM can completely close the weekly and daily gaps that fell this year is due to the cooperation of trading volume. The GEM has broken through the single-day volume of the gap in mid-to-late August this year in terms of volume. Research has found that the highest single-day trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange main board recently was only about 450 billion yuan, but the weekly and daily line gap in mid-to-late August, especially the breaking point of 3373 points, the day's trading volume was 673.3 billion yuan, indicating that the main board's volume in dense areas cannot return to the level at that time. Therefore, once the GEM weakens, the main board turns green is also a normal phenomenon. Although index stocks sometimes rise, the overall volume is poor, indicating that the main board is still weak. Only oversold stocks or theme stocks can strengthen, and the overall opportunity is not great. Yesterday, the volume of the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange shrank below 300 billion yuan, and the ChiNext also shrank by 40% compared with the previous volume of more than 170 billion yuan, indicating that the number of investors actively participating in the market has decreased.
fluctuated repeatedly around 3400 points in the short term
Question: On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated widely throughout the day. After opening high in the morning, it rose several times and fought for 3400 points but failed. It fell rapidly as the afternoon. In the afternoon, the Shanghai Composite Index continued to rise, once rising more than 1%, returning to above 3400 points. It plunged again and fell again near the end of the day, and the volume of the two markets continued to shrink. May I ask, from a technical perspective, how will the future market be interpreted?
Jufeng Investment Consulting: Currently, there are many traps in the area of 3400 points. If a short-term forced breakthrough will lead to endless troubles. It is expected that the market will learn from the previous narrow range oscillation and bottoming out mode, build an upward relay platform from 3200 points to 3450 points, digest the profit-taking market below and the trapped market above. In the short term, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuates around 3400 points, which is a high probability trend. However, stimulated by reform expectations and monetary easing, the market is expected to rise in the medium and long term.
Yuanda Investment Advisor: Judging from the daily line of the Shanghai Composite Index, a mid-yin line broke through the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average on Wednesday. One negative crossing of two lines is a very unfavorable K-line combination. Yesterday's early trading opened high and rebounded to the 10-day moving average, and the afternoon rebound just stopped at the 5-day moving average. Yesterday's full-day rebound was confirmed by a pullback for the decline pattern. If there is still a glimmer of hope, the Shanghai Composite Index must break through the 5-day moving average in the afternoon, but neither condition was met. The single-day trading amount of the Shanghai Composite Index was less than 300 billion yuan, and the volume was in a state of continuous shrinkage. This is also the most fundamental reason for the weak rebound in the recent period. In terms of specific operations, the most important thing is position control, especially when you see an intraday pullback, it is not advisable to chase the rise, avoiding the uncertain risks of monster stocks. The main focus is still on low-priced blue-chip varieties. Long-term strategic investors are still planning to build positions, and the hot spots in the next stage will return to the main board market.
three main lines to explore investment opportunities
Question: From the market, Guangdong State-owned Assets, Cold Chain Logistics, Non-bank Finance, Biomass Energy, Google Glass, Commercial Chain, General Aviation and other sectors performed well yesterday, while the previous uptrends of Industry 4.0, Insurance, Smart Machines, Set-top Box and other sectors fell sharply. How should investors do it in the near future?
Guotai Junan (market 601211, consulting): At present, the A-share market is showing a volatile consolidation pattern, and the market is still dominated by the risk preferences of existing funds. Explore investment opportunities from three main lines: first, high-end manufacturing related (big data, information security, intelligent manufacturing, new energy, etc.); second, modern consumer services related (media, social services and big health industry chain); third, early pessimistic expectations reflect more fully, benefit from the rebound of trading volume and margin financing, have greater flexibility and low positions; at the theme level, ecological civilization construction, free trade zones, agricultural modernization and information economy themes are recommended.
Daily Information Investment Consulting: In terms of operation, you can focus on high-growth varieties of the GEM and SME Board, and at the same time, appropriately ignore the main board, and treat them separately if structural markets appear. In the current market, it is a very wise choice to actively follow the hot sectors. #JRJ page break#
will face a change of trading node on Friday. It is advisable to be prepared for both hands||###||####
will face a change of trading node on Friday. It is advisable to be prepared for both hands
Thursday. The market opened high due to the sharp rise of the US stock market, and finally fluctuated around 3400 for a day. The trading volume hit the land volume since the second half of October. At the lowest in the morning, the ChiNext fell below the 60-minute upward trend line and was pulled back in the afternoon. The three major indexes remained on a consolidation platform. The Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee ended on Thursday. The market did not show the trend of falling in the past whenever it was about to change the market. Friday is also the closing day of this month, so it is another important node and may choose a breakthrough direction.
Today's trend
Don't be too excited to go upward. It's downward that it's "digging a hole" to make a false breakthrough
The market has been like this for 9 trading days, obviously because the pressure of the 3450-3500 above is really too high. Of course, it is impossible to just keep going like this. Choosing the direction of breakthrough is necessary. If we don't go up, we will fall. On Thursday, we didn't get out of the breaking position that we were worried about. After a plunge, we once rushed to above 3400. However, because the trading volume could not keep up and the trading volume fell again at the end of the trading market, the trading volume could not be released because everyone was waiting and watching, including the main institutions, no one dared to attack rashly. Everyone seemed to be waiting for an opportunity. What is it? It may be the communiqué of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee and the 13th Five-Year Plan released on Thursday night.
In fact, the main contents of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 13th Five-Year Plan have been basically analyzed before the meeting, and related topics have also been hotly hyped in advance. Everyone still hopes to have expectations beyond expectations, which is a suspense that cannot fall.The market will face choices on Friday. At present, from a technical point of view, there are adjustment needs for cyclical indicators such as daily, 60 minutes, and 30 minutes. If you rush up directly, you may not go far. If you adjust it downward and then pull it up, the effect should be better. Therefore, everyone pay attention to the two options of the market. If you go down, don’t worry. It is a false breakthrough that is “digging a hole” to jump more forcefully. If you go up directly, don’t be too excited. There may be another more sharp adjustment at any time.
trading today
maintains half position, with chips rising and cash buying,
At this point of view, it is more difficult for everyone to operate, and it seems to be testing everyone's luck of taking the team to bet on winning and losing. We analyzed earlier that with favorable support such as "double decline" and pension market entry, as well as expectations for the 13th Five-Year Plan, the general direction of the market must be upward, just to see how it performs. Friday is the last trading day of this month, and the monthly K-line will close. No matter what trend, the monthly K-line in October closes positively, which is also an important reason why we firmly oppose the future market after the market has four consecutive monthly negative lines, at 3,000 points at the end of September. The market in November is very likely to hit the May line, and the current May line is at 3,516 points.
The short-term operation strategy of everyone should not blindly bet on the direction. That is to say, you should still strictly control your positions, keep about half the position, have chips to rise, and cash to fall. If you break down, it is a good opportunity for investors to chase down the decline. If you pull up, you should not chase the rise. This kind of reverse technical indicator has great uncertainty. You can take advantage of the opportunity to rise and reduce your positions in batches. In short, reverse operation has always been the method we recommend to everyone to use, and it is basically tried and tested. The upward rise is 3450-3500, and the downward rises at 3250-3200, you can buy low in batches. At the gap at the bottom of the daily line, you can boldly buy at the bottom and increase your positions. #JRJ page break#
"Trident" supports 3400 points platform||###||###||###
"Trident" supports 3400 points platform
This week, the stock index started a shrinking fluctuation around 3400 points, and it once fell below 3400 points during the period, but then quickly recovered, and the platform oscillation pattern was basically formed. From the current perspective, the three major support for abundant capital, economic data window period and policy honeymoon period jointly consolidated the 3,400-point platform. On this platform, investors do not need to pay too much attention to the operation of the index. They should sell high and buy low and plan for structural stocks.
Stock index fluctuated in volume and fluctuated in volume
After standing above the 60-day moving average last week, the stock index opened a shrinking fluctuation mode this week. The Shanghai Composite Index opened slightly higher at 3387.77 points yesterday, and then fell rapidly, continuing its volatile trend. It once rose rapidly in the afternoon and reached a high of 3411.71 points. However, it plunged again in the late trading, with the increase narrowing, closing at 3387.32 points, up 0.36%. The Shanghai Composite Index was in a sluggish manner, but the Shenzhen Component Index and the SME Index performed slightly better, up 0.63% and 0.62% yesterday, closing at 11,566.66 points and 7,771.86 points. It is worth noting that the ChiNext Index, which had a strong charge in the early stage, performed sluggishly, closing at 2,485.28 points yesterday, continuing to fluctuate around 2,500 points.
Behind the fluctuation of the index platform, the transaction volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets gradually shrank this week. On October 26, the transaction volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.11 trillion yuan, and then gradually declined. Yesterday, the transaction volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 800 billion yuan mark, reaching 74.9659 million yuan.
From the perspective of industry sectors, Shenwan Household Appliances, Commercial Trade and Defense and Military Industry Index ranked first, up 1.33%, 1.32% and 1.26% respectively, with a relatively small increase of less than 2%. In contrast, Shenwan Steel, Banking and Non-bank Financial Index fluctuated and fell 0.35%, 0.17% and 0.04% respectively. From this point of view, the weight sector performed sluggishly, which to some extent restricted the market's uptrend.
From the perspective of theme hot topics, theme stocks in the volatile market are still active, with Beautiful China, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Free Trade Zone and Sports Index leading the gains, up 3.44%, 3.03% and 2.51% respectively. In contrast, the Industry 4.0, Energy Internet and Robots (market 300024, Consulting) index fell against the market, down 0.97%, 0.81% and 0.55% respectively. From this point of view, the hot spots gradually began to differentiate after the collective recovery in early October.
From the perspective of individual stocks, among the 2379 stocks that were traded normally yesterday, 1,697 stocks rose, of which 73 stocks hit the daily limit, 161 stocks rose by more than 5%, and 373 stocks rose by more than 3%. Among the 622 stocks that fell, 6 stocks hit the limit, 10 stocks fell by more than 5%, and 56 stocks fell by more than 3%. From this point of view, the money-making effect of individual stocks has declined, and it is relatively scattered and difficult to capture.
400 points platform was supported
Looking back on the whole October, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded by more than 10%, and there were many stocks with an increase of more than 30%. After the rebound entered a densely trapped area, the caution of this part of the funds also heated up again, and the willingness to settle profits began to increase. The profit-taking market was superimposed on the trapped market, and the pressure faced by the market should not be underestimated. However, it is worth noting that the current "trident" of abundant capital, economic data window period and policy honeymoon period has strong support for the 3400-point platform, so investors do not need to be overly cautious.
First of all, the abundant capital side has consolidated the foundation of the market. The central bank "double decline" last weekend, and both the timing and strength exceeded market expectations. Against the backdrop of abundant liquidity asset allocation shortage, A-shares will benefit from the spillover of liquidity, and abundant liquidity will boost market sentiment in the short term, but extending the timeline will gradually be transmitted to the capital market, and the logic of capital entry to drive the market to strengthen remains true.
Secondly, in the third quarter, GDP growth rate fell below 7%, and the investment growth rate in September slowed down further. A series of weak economic data made the market able to maintain a shrinking volume and fluctuate consolidation. However, the window of economic data in October created a better market environment for the market. The adjustment caused by economic data being lower than expected will not happen for the time being, and investors' sentiment has gradually stabilized and dared to participate in the market.
Finally, the October policy honeymoon period provided the market with a hype point and activated the market popularity. The Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China passed the "13th Five-Year Plan" proposal, outlining a new picture of China's development, and also stimulating the market's theme investment enthusiasm. The themes such as second-child, intelligent manufacturing, and environmental protection have risen one after another. It is expected that subsequent detailed policies will be introduced. The policy honeymoon period has stimulated market hot spots and provided a tool for investors' layout.
Overall, the current Trident has created a 3400-point platform and is still stable, and the theme hotspots will bloom in the volatile market. Investors do not need to pay too much attention to the index. Instead, they should keep up with policy hotspots and actively participate in the structural market of individual stocks. #JRJ page break#
The wait-and-see attitude of funds is relatively obvious. The stock index shrinks its volume and continues to fluctuate in a narrow range||###||###
The wait-and-see attitude of funds is relatively obvious. The stock index shrinks its volume and continues to fluctuate in a narrow range
On Thursday, the stock indexes of both markets fluctuate in a narrow range, and finally closed slightly higher. During the period of fluctuation in the Shanghai Composite Index around the 3300 points to 3500 points, although there is a lack of trend opportunities, the market hot spot rotation is still relatively obvious. Analysts believe that the market is currently in a balanced area where bulls and bears are repeatedly competing for. It is expected that the index will maintain a wide range of fluctuations for a period of time. The market has entered a period of focusing on individual stocks and neglecting indexes. Some high-quality blue chips have the opportunity to allocate.
As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3387.31 points, up 12.11 points, or 0.36%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11,566.66 points, up 72.31 points, or 0.63%. The ChiNext closed at a flat rate. The turnover volume of the two markets further shrank to 749.7 billion yuan.
On the market, although the market trend opportunities do not exist, the hot spots are still relatively rich. Concept sectors such as drones and aerospace have increased by more than 2%. After the aerospace sector experienced a pullback in the previous trading day, the increase reached 2.36% yesterday, but the rise was not significantly coordinated. On the other hand, the weight sector performed sluggishly. Insurance, banking and securities firms remain weak, with the insurance sector falling 0.93% and the banking sector falling 0.54%.
market has entered a narrow range of fluctuations, and the volume continues to shrink, indicating that the wait-and-see attitude of funds is relatively obvious. Among them, the ChiNext Index plunged during the session and pulled back after midday. After accumulating considerable gains in the early stage, the ChiNext faced obvious short-term withdrawal pressure on funds, and the 2500-point line was repeatedly unable to catch up for a long time. At the same time, some individual stocks have rebounded more than doubled in this round. Led by the continuous shrinking volume consolidation of the ChiNext, the market is in short supply of long atmosphere.It is even more difficult for heavyweight stocks to form an effective rebound in the face of the game of existing funds. However, under this market conditions, some funds have rotated to participate in hot spots, such as Industry 4.0, new energy vehicles, military industry, etc.
For the future market, analysts believe that it has entered a period of focusing on individual stocks and neglecting indexes. An investment manager of a securities asset management department said, "It is expected that the index will still be in a wide range of fluctuations in the fourth quarter. Under this circumstance, the trend opportunities are not obvious, but there are obvious structural opportunities in some areas. Especially some high-performance stocks, there are investment opportunities. The current market liquidity is sufficient, and coupled with the regulatory crackdown on the "monster stocks", funds will gradually move towards high-performance stocks. This process may be a medium- and long-term change, and the key is to select individual stocks that can outperform the market."
He believes that some high-quality blue chips may face a wave of revaluation opportunities. Most blue chip stocks currently undergo an early pullback, and their valuations are already low, and there is little risk of continuing to decline. At the same time, some blue chips have good performance support, and there may be a trend of funds biasing towards blue chip allocation in the fourth quarter. For example, although insurance stocks are at a low valuation and stock price, some companies in the industry have already given relatively good third-quarter results. It is the time to choose the layout of high-quality targets from it. #JRJ page break#
Yuesheng Financial Management: Do a good job in response to focus on structural opportunities||###||###
Yuesheng Financial Management : Do a good job in response to focus on structural opportunities
Thursday market continued its volatile trend, jumping up and down during the session, and the short-term direction is still not clear. Since mid-October, the market has been tossing for more than two weeks. As for the index, it seems that it is not worth it to be too bullish or too bearish in the recent past. When will the market fluctuations end? It is probably difficult to make advance predictions at present.
Although the direction is not clear, we still need to be prepared to choose the direction in the short term. We don’t have to guess whether it is upward or downward, we just need to deal with it in advance. Specifically, if the market wants to break through upwards, we think there are two conditions that need to be met: one is that the Shanghai Composite Index has been operating in a parallel channel since 2850. If the market wants to break through, it must break through the upper track of the parallel channel in large quantities; the other is that the downward trend line of the adjusted RSI (all three values have been changed to 9) indicator should be broken through. So far, the two conditions mentioned above have not been met. We think we can't see how optimistic the market is at the moment.
Of course, saying that the market is not optimistic does not mean that the market will fall immediately. In fact, we can also use some indicators to judge and confirm the possible decline of the market in advance. Specifically, we recommend referring to two conditions: one is that the Shanghai Composite Index's upper track of the consolidation platform in August and September effectively falls below 3250; the other is that the daily K-line, the upward trend line of the adjusted RSI indicator since 2850 has effectively fallen below. So far, the signal of real adjustment has not appeared. I am afraid that the market is too pessimistic.
Since the true upward or downward signal has not appeared for the time being, the current market is mostly continuing to struggle, with the space for struggle roughly around 3250-3450, and the central axis of the interval is roughly around 3350. Although it is a shock, everyone knows that the shock cannot continue forever, and sooner or later they will choose the direction. In terms of subjective tendency, we are relatively cautious about possible trends in the later stage. In fact, the specific reasons have been mentioned many times before. There are many pressures above 3,500 points, and there is no large amount of incremental funds entering the market, and the trading volume cannot be greatly increased. It is not easy to break through. In addition, the closing of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee may end. There are signs of divergence at the high level of technical indicators. If you do not advance, you will retreat. Even if the market adjusts in a short-term manner, it should be understandable. The
index may not look good, but this does not mean that the market has no opportunities. In fact, since the National Day, the overall increase of the index has been quite limited. However, the themes such as lithium batteries, charging piles, Healthy China, and Industry 4.0 have been hyped one after another. There are dozens or even hundreds of stocks that hit the daily limit every day on the market. There are also many short-term stocks in the market that double in the short term. The structural opportunities are quite obvious.In the current market, as long as there are no systemic risks, the opportunities for individual stocks are probably still not missing.
is not clear in the short-term direction and subjectively worrying, the current risk control is still achieved through position control and individual stock selection. It is recommended to have a position of about half a position, regardless of whether the market rises or falls in the later stage, maintain a state of being able to attack and retreat or defend. At the same time, in terms of allocation direction, adopt the strategy of abandoning high and lowering the low. For individual stocks with large gains in the previous period, they will be eliminated or partially reduced in positions and spread the cost to enhance their ability to resist risks, and actively pay attention to high-performance growth stocks that meet the expectations of economic structure transformation and determine performance growth. At the same time, the recent increase is significantly behind. #JRJ page breaker#
Yuanda Investment Advisor: Small-cap stocks have increased risks. Pay more attention to low-priced blue chips ||###||###
Yuanda Investment Advisor: Small-cap stocks have increased risks. Pay more attention to low-priced blue chips
On Thursday morning, the Shanghai Composite Index opened slightly higher under the stimulus of the sharp rise in the external stock market, fluctuating below 3400 points waiting for direction choice. At the opening in the afternoon, the military industry sector still led the rise. Second-tier weighted varieties such as building materials and real estate tried to rise in the middle of the session, leading the index to a rapid rise. Unfortunately, this upward attack stopped at the 5-day moving average. The main reason for the failure of the rebound is that the two barrels of oil and banking sectors continue to be sluggish. If the market wants to return to the rebound trajectory, it must rely on the two leading varieties to lead the index to break through the 5-day moving average. Therefore, the intraday rebound is more like an intraday pullback. The main force's pull-up in the afternoon hides hidden dangers.
Recently, industrial capital has increased intensively, with a net increase of more than 50 billion yuan since September, and nearly 10 billion yuan in October alone. Big blue chips led by banks, securities and automobiles have become the main targets for industrial capital increase in recent years; insurance funds such as Qianhai Life Insurance, Life Insurance, and Centennial Life Insurance have frequently "raising their shares", which has become the main force for increasing their shares. However, some institutions have continued to ship in the rebound since October, and some short-term strong stocks have seen obvious signs of reducing holdings when they are high, indicating that the market is still relatively different from the future market. Investors should maintain an objective analysis of recent positive factors. The entry of these funds is mainly due to strategic investors building positions and laying out according to the plan, which has little impact on the short-term trend of the index.
From the daily chart of the Shanghai Composite Index, a mid-yin line broke through the 5-day and 10-day moving averages on Wednesday. One negative crossing of two lines is a very unfavorable K-line combination. The high opening in the morning session rebounded to the 10-day moving average, and the afternoon rebound just stopped at the 5-day moving average. The rebound throughout the day seemed to be a pullback confirmation of the decline pattern. If you want to see a glimmer of hope, the Shanghai Composite Index must break through the 5-day moving average in the afternoon, but neither of the two conditions are met. The single-day transaction amount of the Shanghai Composite Index is less than 300 billion, and the volume is showing a continuous shrinking state, which is also the most fundamental reason for the weak rebound in the recent period. In terms of the
sector, the recent focus has been on the adjustment risks of individual stocks of the GEM and SME Board. Although the GEM index has turned red with the Shanghai Stock Exchange, a number of leading varieties such as Sannuo Biologics (market 300298, consultation), Oriental Net Power (market 300367, consultation), have experienced short-term breakthroughs, and the current risk of individual stocks is greater than the risk of index adjustment. From the data point of view, strategic investors are still laying out blue-chip varieties in the medium and long term. From this point of view, the downward adjustment space of the Shanghai Composite Index is relatively limited. We should not be too panicked about the varieties in the main board market. We can even use the adjustment of the market to adjust positions and exchange stocks in a timely manner, and focus our layout on the main board market, especially low-priced stocks with large capital layout.
Overall, a mid-yin line broke through the 5-day and 10-day moving averages on Wednesday, and rebounded on Thursday to complete a rebound, and a plunge occurred again in the late afternoon. In terms of specific operations, the most important thing for the current operation is position control, especially when seeing the intraday pullback, it is not advisable to chase the rise, avoiding the uncertain risks of "monster stocks". The main focus is still on low-priced blue-chip varieties. Long-term strategic investors are still planning to build positions, and the hot spots in the next stage will return to the main board market. #JRJ page break#
0 The essence of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19th Plenary Session of the 19thThe communiqué of the plenary session pointed out that we should promote balanced population development, adhere to the basic national policy of family planning, and improve the population development strategy. Fully implement the policy of having two children for a couple. Improve the level of public services such as reproductive health, maternal and child care, and actively carry out actions to deal with population aging.
. Implement the National Big Data Strategy
0 The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee emphasized that new space for development should be expanded, vertical and horizontal economic axis belts dominated by coastal and river economic belts, cultivate and strengthen several key economic zones, implement the strategy of building a network power, implement the "Internet +" action plan, develop the sharing economy, and implement the national big data strategy.
. Promote the construction of a beautiful China and establish a beautiful China and establish a beautiful China. The plenary session proposed that to adhere to green development, we must adhere to the basic national policy of saving resources and protecting the environment, adhere to sustainable development, firmly follow the path of civilized development with production development, prosperous life and good ecology, accelerate the construction of a resource-saving and environmentally friendly society, form a new pattern of modernization of harmonious development between man and nature, promote the construction of a beautiful China, and make new contributions to global ecological security.
. Transfer part of state-owned capital to enrich the social security fund
Plenary session proposed that China will achieve national coordination of basic pensions for employees. China will transfer part of state-owned capital to enrich the social security fund.
. Promote the construction of a healthy China
Plenary Session pointed out that we should promote the construction of a healthy China, deepen the reform of the medical and health system, streamline drug prices, implement medical, medical insurance, and medicine linkage, establish a basic medical and health system covering urban and rural areas and a modern hospital management system, and implement a food safety strategy.
. Improve the state-owned assets management system Reform the financial supervision framework
Build a new development system, accelerate the formation of a market environment, property rights system, investment and financing system, distribution system, talent training introduction and use mechanism that is conducive to innovative development, deepen the reform of the administrative management system, and further transform government functions.
continues to promote streamlining administration, delegating power, combining regulation and supervision, and optimizing services, improve government efficiency, stimulate market vitality and social creativity, improve various state-owned assets management systems, establish and improve modern fiscal systems and tax systems, and reform and improve the financial supervision framework that adapts to the development of the modern financial market.
. Implement the military-civilian integration development strategy
0 The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to promote the integrated development of economic construction and national defense construction, adhere to the balance of development and security, enrich the country and strengthen the military, implement the military-civilian integration development strategy, and form a pattern of deep military-civilian integration development with all factors, multiple fields and high efficiency.
, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee emphasized: Developing a higher-level open economy
Plenary Session proposed that to adhere to open development, we must adapt to the trend of our country's economy being deeply integrated into the world economy, pursue an open strategy of mutual benefit and win-win, develop a higher-level open economy, actively participate in global economic governance and the supply of public products, improve our country's institutional voice in global economic governance, and build a broad community of interests.
. Fully open up the prices of goods and services in competitive fields
Innovate and improve macro-control methods, increase targeted control efforts on the basis of range control, reduce government intervention in price formation, and fully liberalize the prices of goods and services in competitive fields.
0. Develop a higher level of open economy
In accordance with the provisions of the Party Constitution, the Plenary Session decided to replace Liu Xiaokai, Chen Zhirong and Jin Zhenji, alternate members of the Central Committee as members of the Central Committee.
Plenary Session reviewed and passed the review report of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection of the Communist Party of China on serious violations of discipline by Ling Jihua, Zhou Benshun, Yang Dongliang, Zhu Mingguo, Wang Min, Chen Chuanping, Qiu He, Yang Weize, Pan Yiyang and Yu Yuanhui, and confirmed the previous punishments made by the Political Bureau of the Central Committee for expelling Ling Jihua, Zhou Benshun, Yang Dongliang, Zhu Mingguo, Wang Min, Chen Chuanping, Qiu He, Yang Weize, Pan Yiyang and Yu Yuanhui from the Party.
1. Achieve the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects as scheduled.
The plenary session believes that building a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020 is the first centenary goal of the "two centenary" goals set by our party.The 13th Five-Year Plan period is the decisive stage of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, and the 13th Five-Year Plan must be formulated closely around achieving this goal.
Plenary Session emphasized that to achieve the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects as scheduled and promote the sustained and healthy development of the economy and society, we must follow the following principles: uphold the people's dominant position, adhere to scientific development, adhere to deepening reform, adhere to the rule of law, adhere to the coordinated domestic and international situations, and adhere to the leadership of the Party.
2. Innovation must be placed at the core position of the overall national development
Plenary Session proposed that to adhere to innovative development, innovation must be placed at the core position of the overall national development, and continuously promote innovation in various aspects such as theoretical innovation, institutional innovation, scientific and technological innovation, and cultural innovation, so that innovation can be carried out throughout the work of the Party and the country, and innovation will become a trend in the whole society.
3. Accelerate the construction of a manufacturing power
The plenary session pointed out that we should build a new industrial system, accelerate the construction of a manufacturing power strong country, implement the "Made in China 2025", implement the industrial foundation strengthening project, cultivate a number of strategic industries, and carry out actions to accelerate the development of modern service industries.
4. Improve the quality of education and promote the balanced development of compulsory education
Plenary session proposed to improve the quality of education, promote the balanced development of compulsory education, popularize high school education, and gradually promote the exemption of tuition and miscellaneous fees for secondary vocational education. It is the first to implement exemption of tuition and miscellaneous fees for ordinary high schools from financial difficulties from registered families, so as to achieve full coverage of financial aid for students from financial difficulties in their families. #JRJ page break#
The "13th Five-Year Plan" will give birth to the cross-year market of A-shares||###||###
The "13th Five-Year Plan" will give birth to the cross-year market of A-shares
0 The Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has concluded. The implementation of the spirit of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee will once again release the dividends of reform. The "13th Five-Year Plan" will give birth to substantial thematic investment, which is expected to become the main line of the market at the end of the year or even the New Year.
The third quarter report disclosure of listed companies will also end, but the current probability of A-shares relying on policy promotion is high, and it will take a long time to eventually evolve into economic fundamentals and support for corporate performance. This week, A-shares still had net inflows of funds. From the perspective of sectors, although the main funds were repeatedly flowing back to building materials, securities companies, automobiles, real estate, non-ferrous metals, and lithium batteries at the beginning of this week, the net inflow of funds such as software services, the Internet, satellite navigation, and national defense and military industries did not change, and the overall long momentum remained good, which will help enhance the market's upward momentum and confidence.
In the A-share market, state-owned enterprise reform, big health, second child, energy conservation and environmental protection, Internet+, information security, big data, etc. have taken turns to stage oversold rebounds, and there is no suspense to the end of October. On the one hand, this is due to the futures characteristics of the "calendar stock buying method" that caused the hot spots in October; on the other hand, it is due to the intensive policy news at the end of the year. In November, the author believes that after the implementation of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the market speculation will be clearer. Investment opportunities at the end of the year mainly come from the improvement of market expectations, and the improvement of investors' expectations is closely related to the implementation of the spirit of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee and the promotion of the 13th Five-Year Plan.
Form a new consensus
The 13th Five-Year Plan is the first five-year plan after China's economy enters the "new normal". China's economy maintains medium-to-high-speed growth, which is a new normal that conforms to the laws of economic development. The central government particularly emphasized that it is necessary to sort out and explain the development concept clearly, lead the transformation of development mode through the transformation of development concept, and promote the improvement of development quality and efficiency through the transformation of development mode, and point out the way and lead the way for my country's economic and social development during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. From this point of view, in the next five years, if the capital market wants to understand and adapt to the new normal, it still needs to grasp the key to economic transformation and transformation of development mode.
On the other hand, China's economy is under great downward pressure, and the continuous strengthening of policy efforts to stabilize growth is an important factor in boosting A-shares. In fact, before the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee, the management had already begun to introduce a new round of micro-stimulus policies for consumption and investment, and the policy pattern of "fiscal force + monetary easing" has been formed.
Following the expansion of the scope of credit asset pledge and re-lending on October 10, the central bank conducted MLF operations of 11 banks with a scale of 105.5 billion yuan. On the eve of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the central bank announced that from October 24, the benchmark interest rate for RMB deposits and loans for financial institutions will be lowered, and the reserve ratio for RMB deposits for financial institutions will be lowered. The central bank's double reduction has once again seen a negative interest rate era, which means that the interest income from deposits in banks will not be able to offset inflation and assets will shrink, and it also means that the central bank is trying to drive out money from banks and let everyone consume and invest. All this laid the foundation for the intermediate rebound of A-shares.
The industry generally believes that from the perspectives of management's remarks, the progress of reform and innovation, the intensive release of policies, and the comprehensive recovery of market sentiment, the A-share market has initially established a bottom foundation.
leads new hot spots
The 13th Five-Year Plan will lead new hot spots in the market and make the market theme investment ideas clearer.
Hot Topic 1: "Internet +", intelligent manufacturing, etc. have become the growth points of the new economy. In July, the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Actively Promoting the "Internet+" Action", and proposed 11 key actions, including "Internet+" entrepreneurship and innovation, "Internet+" collaborative manufacturing, "Internet+" modern agriculture, and "Internet+" inclusive finance. These actions are related to the national economy and people's livelihood. Therefore, the "Internet+" strategy is also hailed by the industry as the basis for innovation during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period.
Intelligent manufacturing, smart cities, information security, cloud computing, big data, etc. will once again become hot words in the market. In particular, some sub-item plans have hard indicators, such as the target of the application of secure and controllable information technology in 2019 exceeding 75%; the "Energy Development Strategic Action Plan (2014-2020)" shows that by 2020, the target of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption reaches 15%. The 13th Five-Year Plan is a critical period for my country's economic structure adjustment and transformation and upgrading.
"Internet +" and industrial upgrading are one of the core strategies of "Made in China 2025" and are also a powerful leverage to promote China's economic transformation in the future. Premier Li Keqiang proposed the next step of "two upgrades" that will create new momentum: one is "mass entrepreneurship and innovation", combining it with "Internet +" and "Made in China 2025" to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of industrial intelligence; the other is consumption upgrade. Innovation-driven and growth have become new impetus in the market.
Hot Spot 2: Comprehensive deepening of reform has entered the decisive stage. The author found that state-owned enterprise reform, fiscal and tax reform and price reform are the areas mentioned most by securities companies' research reports; national defense and military reform and ecological civilization reform are the most concerned; and financial reform is the most critical and difficult.
Since the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee proposed "comprehensively deepening reform", state-owned enterprises have not only become the main battlefield for deepening reform, but also the most concerned group in the capital market. In the secondary market, the theme of state-owned enterprise reform has also become the cradle of nurturing big bull stocks. However, the previous part was mainly thematic concept hype. The implementation of the overall plan for state-owned enterprise reform marks a new stage in the new round of state-owned enterprise reform, and related company hype will also change from the concept of reform to the quality of reform.
For a long time, national defense and military reforms have become a hot topic of attention and support across the country. The "Decision" on Several Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reforms adopted at the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee determined the content of three aspects of military reform - deepening the adjustment and reform of military system organization, promoting the adjustment and reform of military policy and system, and promoting the in-depth development of military-civilian integration. The announcement of 300,000 troops was issued at the 9/3rd military parade this year. Military-industrial reform marked by military-civilian integration has long been surging.
, especially on the opening day of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on October 26, the WeChat public account "National Defense Reference" operated by the Communications and Liaison Department of the People's Liberation Army Daily published an article "An examination of the historical experience in the implementation of major adjustments and reforms of our army." The article said that "the curtain of reform of our army is about to begin." As a "national weapon", the modernization of the army is one of the highlights of the "13th Five-Year Plan". How will the outline of the 13th Five-Year Plan focus on national defense and military construction and how to realize the dream of a strong military is worth looking forward to. In the short term, due to geopolitical tensions, the aerospace and military sector will increase catalysts.
Hot Spot Three: Benefiting the People to Generate the Beautiful Scenery of the "13th Five-Year Plan". The concepts of "Healthy China", "Ecological China" and "Beautiful China" should be laid out in a long-term manner.
With the implementation of the "Healthy China" strategy, the medical and health industry around big health, big health and big medicine is expected to exceed the market size of 11 trillion yuan during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The reform of the ecological civilization system will be the highlight of the 13th Five-Year Plan, which is a decision on the development stage and national conditions and people's conditions. Ecological and environmental problems are ultimately problems with economic growth modes, and are a reflection of people's increasing attention to ecology and environmental protection issues. "Ecological China" and "Beautiful China" are important parts of the Chinese dream. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, ecological civilization construction will change from decision-making to implementation planning. "Ecological civilization construction" will be included in the national "13th Five-Year Plan", which is also the first time that "Ecological civilization construction" has been written into the five-year plan. #JRJ page break#
people's livelihood strategy: "13th Five-Year Plan" Those topics and targets that cannot be missed||###||###
people's livelihood strategy: "13th Five-Year Plan" Those topics and targets that cannot be missed
Core logic and opinions
Before the 13th Five-Year Plan, we reiterate and update our views on intermediate rebound:
three logics about intermediate rebound, risk premium, management ideas and liquidity, have been perfectly proven recently. In August, the accelerated implementation of the policy of stabilizing growth has driven the downward trend of risk premiums and the personnel adjustment ideas have gradually become clear. As of the eve of the double decline last weekend, monetary policy has been in a passive hedging stage and has not exceeded market expectations. However, after the double decline last weekend and the recent capital increase of China Development Bank Development Fund, we have seen that monetary easing has made subtle breakthroughs in volume, price and form, and the logic of abundant liquidity on the intermediate rebound has finally proved true.
Regarding the height, sustainability and rhythm of the market rebound, we still adhere to the previous view of blue chips setting up the stage, theme accompaniment, and growth performance. In the recent stage of monetary easing and intensive policy catalysis, our judgment of blue chips is more positive than in August. We are optimistic about blue chip trading opportunities (SSE 3800-4200), but we still adhere to the growth-oriented structure (GEM 3000). In terms of theme, the focus and highlights of the 13th Five-Year Plan will become important investment clues from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year.
This report analyzes and predicts the key areas, related investment themes, investment logic, and bottom-up recommended investment targets in the 13th Five-Year Plan.
Risk warning: The 13th Five-Year Plan Plan is less than expected, and the market risk preference is reduced. Risk warning: Policy support may be less than expected, market development is less than expected, and corporate performance is less than expected.
Key directions of the 13th Five-Year Plan
, eight key directions
0 The Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has been held. The 13th Five-Year Plan is getting closer and closer. The market focuses on the incremental information and highlights of the 13th Five-Year Plan. It is expected that this will become the main investment line from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, and even the whole year. Judging from the 25 preliminary research topics and the top ten goals, we summarize eight main investment lines:
1. In terms of population policy adjustment, focus on second child and elderly care;
2. In terms of green, focus on new energy vehicles, energy Internet, and beautiful China;
3. In terms of smart cities, focus on underground pipeline corridors, smart parking lots, and sponge cities;
4. In terms of intelligent manufacturing, focus on robots (market 30002 4. Consultation), 3D printing, Beidou and new materials;
5. In terms of information economy, focus on big data, smart logistics and network security;
6. In terms of economic strategy, focus on the road and the Belt and Road, the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei;
7. In terms of consumption upgrade, focus on Disney, Universal Studios and Healthy China;
8. In terms of economic reform, focus on electricity reform, sports reform and state-owned enterprise reform.
. Three top priorities
From the comparison of the goals of the "12th Five-Year Plan" and the "13th Five-Year Plan", we found that changing the economic development model, promoting innovation-driven development, and accelerating the pace of agriculturalization are the latest goals proposed by this plan. In specific areas, we found that new directions added in the previous research topics include: long-term mechanism for expanding consumer demand, research on information economy development, research on the development strategy of my country's enterprises "going out", research on the development of state-owned enterprises and non-public economy development, research on population development strategies and policies.
From the members of the "13th Five-Year Plan" Development Planning Committee, we found that the four major goals of reforming the system and mechanism, ensuring and improving people's livelihood, adjusting and optimizing industrial structure, and strengthening ecological civilization construction have the largest number of experts. Among them, experts in reforming the system and mechanism are mainly concentrated in the field of financial reform. In addition, we found that there are many experts in ensuring and improving people's livelihood and strengthening ecological civilization construction, specifically experts in the fields of green economy, pollution control, pension, population policies, etc.
Combining the above two dimensions, the top priority and increment of this five-year plan are mainly reflected in three keywords: population, environment, and new economy. #JRJ page break#
The eight major directions of investment themes and targets in the "13th Five-Year Plan" ||###||###
The eight major directions of investment themes and targets in the "13th Five-Year Plan" |||###
The eight major directions of investment themes and targets in the "13th Five-Year Plan" |||###
1, population structure
2, green economy
3, smart city
4, intelligent manufacturing
5, information economy
6, three major strategies
7, consumption upgrade
8, economic reform
#JRJ page break#
0 sort out the relevant performance and valuation performance of the target||###||###||###
sort out the relevant performance and valuation performance of the target||###||###
sort out the relevant performance and valuation performance of the target||####||###
sort out the relevant performance and valuation performance of the target||####||####
sort out the relevant performance and valuation performance of the target||####||####
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0 sort out the relevant performance and valuation performance of the target||##########
0 sort out the relevant performance and valuation performance of the target||############
0 sort out the relevant performance and valuation performance of the target||###############
0 sort out the relevant performance and valuation performance of the target||###############################################################################################################
listed company cases and related targets involved in this article do not represent investment advice; specific investment advice, please refer to our company's relevant industry and company research reports. #JRJ page break#
"bottom-up" 13th Five-Year theme target recommendation||###||###
"bottom-up" 13th Five-Year theme target recommendation
