Let’s talk about the conclusion first:
1. The products of Beyond Meat (hereinafter referred to as BYND) are of cross-generational significance.
2. It is possible to develop into a big bull stock similar to Amazon .
3. The stock price is relatively high in the short term.
Mrs have been vegetarian for more than 10 years, and her daughter is a baby commonly known as "Feal Sugar". At first we were worried that adults' vegetarianism would affect the growth and development of children, but her physical and intellectual development was normal and her learning ability was even better than that of ordinary children, so the whole family began to accept vegetarian food slowly. Under the influence of my wife, my mother and I also increased the proportion of vegetarian food. We insisted on Dr. Wu Yongzhi's vegetable and fruit juice recipe for several years. Some of my mother's chronic diseases have recovered unknowingly, which has also enhanced our confidence in eating vegetarian food. We are also paying special attention to organic and healthy foods. When we learned that the first plant meat company received investment from Bill Gates and others, we wanted to buy it and try it. At first, Beyond meat did not establish sales channels in mainland China and could only purchase them through agents in Hong Kong.
First vegetarian steak —
In April this year, BYND started selling various plant meat foods in the mainland through Starbucks —
My one-day breakfast: bulletproof coffee + plant beef rolls—
BYND makes a taste similar to traditional meat, providing nutritional ingredients beyond meat, but eliminating the harm caused by meat. Animals and livestock are prone to infection with a variety of diseases, such as mad cow disease (beef), swine flu (pork) and avian flu (poultry). Global livestock industry accounts for a large proportion of global greenhouse gas emissions, such as methane and nitrous oxide. Research shows that Beyond Burger reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 90% compared to beef burgers, reduces energy by 46%, reduces the impact on water shortage by 99%, and reduces the impact on land use by 93%. For humans, plant meat is a better source of food.
I think the real wisdom of BYND is that it is not like religious people and environmentalists who use education, parades or demonstrations to prevent you from killing animals and protecting the environment. But ordinary people "understand a lot of truths, but still can't live a good life." In fact, the prosperity of various religions for thousands of years also shows that the weaknesses of human nature are not so easy to eradicate. Before the human nature of eating meat cannot be removed from DNA, BYND cleverly uses substitutes with realistic taste, better appearance and better nutritional value to satisfy people's desires. The same is true for
Telsa: although electric vehicles are essentially more environmentally friendly, Musk did not loudly call for the greenhouse effect and over-exploitation of oil at the beginning, and held investors and consumers from the moral high ground, but stimulated people's desires higher. Looking at this cool wing, people are willing to use clean energy:
May crude oil futures negative oil prices indicate that the oil industry has been stripped down...
consumer goods industry has always been the place of big bull stocks, and consumers are often willing to pay higher prices for brands they trust. This is what Buffett calls "moat". Buffett's favorite Coca-Cola , Kraft Food, Meishi candies, etc. are all foods that can be eaten. Food is a necessary consumer product, and even during the economic depression, there is stable market demand. During this epidemic, due to traffic shutdowns and infection cases among industry workers, the US meat leader closure affected the meat supply chain, while BYND grew against the market, seizing many traditional meat markets. According to the survey, the mainstream consumers of BYND are not vegetarians, but meat eaters!
As a new high-tech food company, although BYND is not the only plant meat technology, it is the first to go public and has a better chance to use the capital market to quickly establish brand effects and consumers' mental models than other competitors. With the increase in categories and the development of global markets, it is very likely to become a big bull stock similar to Amazon AMZN.
However, the analysis method of technology stocks is different from traditional blue chips and cyclical stocks.The competition in the high-tech industry is extremely fierce, and the market is in a state of extreme uncertainty. Even the technology giant Amazon has fallen by 95% of its market value and is on the verge of bankruptcy. It is not feasible to analyze stock prices by discounting cash flow in the financial industry. Great investors such as Buffett simply admit that they don’t understand technology stocks and don’t buy them.
To determine the growth potential of a technology company, we need to start from the technology and the product itself. The countless failed technology companies in the past, the burst bubbles and survivor biases, let us summarize the innovation S curve of technology companies, which can be used as an effective tool for reference.
An emerging technology company has disrupted old technology and business paradigms and has grown into a giant. Whether a good concept or product prototype can become a popular product needs to be tested for a long time. During the AI investment boom in 2017, many companies that earned big money began to go bankrupt last year and this year because they did not have enough revenue. Any technology company will go through the first wave of investment fanaticism, then fall from peak to constant disappointment, bottoming out and despair. Once it can be verified by the market and quickly develop early adopters into early majority, it will start the second wave of rise. This is a real rise and is recognized by the mainstream market. I judge that BYND is now in the early stage of the second wave of upward trend and may become a tenbagger in the future.
3BYND's stock price followed the US stock market and fell to a low of $48. I sold put at around 40 yuan and buy call around $60. In just one month, the principal increased by 20 times! However, the short-term stock price explosion was affected by unlimited QE and the shutdown of traditional meat factories, and printing money cannot restore the physical supply chain. The unemployment rate in the United States has exceeded the same period in 1929, and the recovery of the economy will also take time.
So, BYND's stock price is overvalued in the short term, but I am full of expectations for it in the long term.
Statement: I hold BYND, TSLA in US stock investment funds, but this article does not constitute investment advice.
