China Index Academy organized 300 analysts to investigate the real estate development situation of cities at all levels across the country during their return home during the Spring Festival. Analysts conducted in-depth surveys on the characteristics of each city, housing status, inventory scale, population flow, etc., and analyzed future market space and investment opportunities to provide suggestions for the destocking strategy.
Shanxi Taiyuan
Taiyuan City's shantytown renovation efforts are constantly increasing, and urban village renovation continues to advance. In 2015, the real estate supply side grew significantly, and sales have bid farewell to the period of rapid growth. Residential housing is mainly based on improvement demand, and prices are steadily rising. Promote the monetary resettlement of shantytown renovation, carry out rental and sales, develop the housing rental market, and accelerate the transformation of development enterprises into a comprehensive service-oriented enterprise to a main way to destock in Taiyuan City.
1, , Longcheng Taiyuan, with a long history and superior area, is located in the same building. As the saying goes, "Ten years, China looks at Pudong, 20 years, China looks at Shenzhen, 100 years, China looks at Hong Kong, China looks at Beijing, 3,000 years, China looks at Xi'an, and China looks at Shanxi." As the capital of Shanxi, Taiyuan, also known as Bingzhou, was called Jinyang , also known as Longcheng, is the political, economic, cultural, transportation and international exchange center of Shanxi Province. It is a historical capital with more than 4,700 years, more than 2,500 years, "controlling mountains and rivers, lying on the shoulders and backs of the world", "the key to the four blocks, and controlling the capital of the five Yuans". Located in the Taiyuan Basin in the central and northern part of Shanxi Province.
2. We are working hard to get out of the dilemma of "prosperous because of coal and difficult because of coal". In the optimization of industrial structure, the total area of Taiyuan City is 6,988 square kilometers, of which the total area of Taiyuan City is 1,460 square kilometers. At the end of 2014, the permanent population was 4.2989 million, ranking third in the province. Taiyuan City has 6 municipal districts under the jurisdiction of ( Xiaodian District, Yingze District, Xinghualing District, , Jiancaoping District, Wan Berlin District, Jinyuan District, ), 3 counties ( Qingxu County, , Yangqu County, Loufan County, Loufan County), and 1 county-level city ( Gujiao City, ).
In 2015, Taiyuan's economy maintained a stable and rapid growth overall trend, achieving a regional GDP of 273.534 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9% over the previous year, and the growth rate accelerated by 5.6 percentage points over the previous year. The contribution rates of the three industries to economic growth were 0.2%, 29.2% and 70.6%, respectively, driving GDP growth by 0.02, 2.60 and 6.28 percentage points respectively. Taiyuan's industrial structure is being optimized. In 2015, the proportion of emerging successor industries in Taiyuan increased, while the proportion of investment in traditional industries decreased; the proportion of non-coal industries in industrial investment increased.
3. Shantytown renovation has caused oversupply, and short-term inventory pressure is high.
(1) The efforts to shantytown renovation have increased, and the supply growth of the real estate market has increased significantly.
focuses on supply-side structural reform, shantytown renovation has increased, urban village transformation has continued to advance, and the real estate supply side has increased significantly. In August 2015, the "Taiyuan City Shantytown Renovation Special Planning Plan" announced: From 2015 to 2017, 54 shantytowns in Taiyuan will start renovation, and 43,100 shantytown resettlement housing will be started at the same time. As the efforts to renovate shantytowns continue to increase, urban village renovation continues to advance, and the growth rate of real estate development investment and newly started construction area has increased significantly. In 2015, the investment in real estate development in Taiyuan was 60.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 25.0%, an increase of more than 10% over the previous year; the newly started housing area increased by more than 40%, an increase of more than 30% over the previous year.
(2) Commercial housing sales have bid farewell to the period of rapid growth. Commercial housing is mainly based on improvement demand, and prices are still rising steadily
Local citizens basically have 1-2 houses. The demand mostly comes from the improvement needs of surrounding cities and local residents, and most of them tend to resettle housing in urban areas (Xiaodian District, Yingze District, Xinghualing District, Jiancaoping District, Wanbailin District, and Jinyuan District). Commercial housing sales in Taiyuan have bid farewell to the period of rapid growth. In 2015, although the year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing sales area in Taiyuan City turned to growth (1.0% year-on-year decrease in 2014), an increase of 6.9%, it was still significantly lower than the year-on-year growth rate of more than 30% in 2012 and 2013. The sales share of commercial housing with urgent needs under 90 square meters has decreased year by year, and the sales area share has dropped from 20.4% in 2013 to 11.4% in 2015. The prices of commercial housing in Taiyuan City have risen steadily.In 2015, the average transaction price of commercial housing in Taiyuan was 7,716 yuan/square meter, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year. At present, many large real estate companies have settled in Taiyuan and plan to do their best to deepen their efforts all year round, such as: Vanke, Evergrande, Greenland, Sunac , Country Garden, R&F City, etc.
(3) Residential land transactions are mainly Wanbailin District and Xiaodian District
With the gradual advancement of Taiyuan City's urban development strategy of "moving south and moving west, expanding capacity and improving quality" , Wanbailin District, the "west gate" of Taiyuan City, and the land in the south, are favored by developers. In 2015, the transaction volume of residential land in Wanbailin District and Xiaodian District accounted for 41.3% and 30.7% of the city's residential land transactions respectively.
(4) The market has a risk of oversupply, but the South Station area, Jinyang Lake area, etc. still have development potential
In 2015, the starting ratio of commercial housing sales in Taiyuan was only 0.60, lower than the national average of 1.05. There is a risk of oversupply in the market, such as the surrounding areas Qingxu , Loufan , Yangqu, Gujiao . The population housing demand in these areas has basically been met, and the new demand has been continuously shifted to the six urban districts, and the housing demand for the spillover population in other cities is very limited.
, and there is still room for demand growth in some areas. For example, with the continuous improvement of Taiyuan New South Station and the surrounding Taiyu Road and Zhonghuan Road, coupled with the start of the Vanke Beiying Urban Renovation Project, and the successive completion of the five-certificate project Xiangsong, the South Station area of Xiaodian District will become a potential hot spot for Nancheng Real Estate. With the completion of the Jinyang Lake District Construction Command, the demolition work of 13 urban villages around the lake has been carried out in an orderly manner. In addition, the new regional plan has been completed, Jinyang Lake will also become a hot spot for the economic development of Taiyuan City in the future, and there is room for growth in housing demand. At the end of 2015, at the signing ceremony of the Xinzhuang City Zhongcun Renovation Project Cooperation Agreement held in Wanberlin District, Sunac officially joined the urban village renovation. Sunac Real Estate has always been cautious in choosing to expand its business. Once it is selected and decided to "deeply cultivate", the quality of demand in the region will improve in the future, which will drive the gathering of improvement-oriented demands.
4. Promote the monetary resettlement of shantytown renovation, grasp the market-improved product demand to help inventory turnover
In terms of inventory turnover, the policy of encouraging new citizens to buy houses is still difficult in Taiyuan: in 2014, the per capita disposable income of rural residents in Taiyuan was 12,616 yuan. According to the average transaction price of commercial housing in Taiyuan City of 7,716 yuan, if you want to pay the down payment, a migrant worker will need to work for nearly 10 years without eating or drinking. Therefore, if migrant workers become the main force in housing consumption, they still need a lot of policy support.
From the current perspective, an effective inventory reduction method can include the following contents: moderately control the scale of new construction, promote monetary resettlement of shantytown renovation, grasp the market's demand for improved products, establish a housing system that combines rental and sales, and develop the housing rental market (from 2000 to 2014, the migrant population in Taiyuan increased from 175,000 to 1.08 million, and there is a large space in the rental market), encourage natural persons and various institutional investors to purchase inventory commercial housing, and become housing providers in the rental market. At the same time, development companies should accelerate their transformation and development and transform from a single development company to a comprehensive service-oriented enterprise.
