On the first day of the Lunar New Year, the Chinese football team met the Vietnamese football team. A game that cannot be lost was finally lost 1:3. Fan Zhiyi predicted in an interview 27 years ago that China would lose to Vietnam and Myanmar, which has achieved half of it. There are all kinds of jokes on the Internet of
. It is certain that there are fewer and fewer fans in Chinese football , but those who joke about Chinese football have risen against the trend.
, but among all kinds of jokes, Liu Jianhong changed his perspective and successfully became popular. He said: Many securities practitioners laughed at the national football team being made 3:1 by Vietnam. In fact, the increase in the and A shares in the past five years is 6:1, and I smiled 50 steps and I don’t want to see it anymore.
Hahaha, it turns out that A-shares are worse than Chinese football. Is the investment returns of
A shares really that bad?
So, is it good to buy Vietnamese stocks or funds?
01
In the past 2021, the performance of A-shares was indeed not satisfactory. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.8% throughout the year, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.7%. The best performing GEM rose 12%. In terms of major global markets, such rankings are relatively poor.
, and in this year, the Vietnam index rose 133%, ranking first in the Asia-Pacific region. Taiwan and India both rose by more than 20%, while Australia rose by 13%, which also surpassed A-shares a lot.
I don’t know which index Liu Jianhong used in the past 5 years, but in the past three years, Vietnam has increased by 300%, and Shanghai Composite Index has increased by less than 30%. It is no problem to hit 10:1 in the past three years.
02
Of course, many people also say that indexes cannot explain anything. There are various problems in index compilation, so there are situations where indexes do not make money and investment can make money.
But on the other hand, when investing in funds, many people think that index is the best investment, and 's has been invested in index funds without hesitation. This is a really funny contradiction.
So far, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index fund has risen 61% in the past three years, and the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 Index fund has risen 44%. Although it is slightly higher than the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, it is indeed far lost to the Vietnamese stock market's increase. The average increase of
mixed funds in the past three years has reached 85%, and finally slightly surpassed the index.
But this is the data so far. If we look at the complete natural year, the average increase of mixed funds in 2019 was 33.6%, the average increase in 2020 was 41%, and the average increase in 2021 was 8.2%. In fact, the returns in these three years are not bad. Although they still cannot be compared with the 300% increase in Vietnam's stock market in three years, it is at least much better than the Shanghai Composite Index, which has risen nearly 30%.
03
So what if we buy the foundation in Vietnam? There is only one QDII fund in the
market that invests in the Vietnamese market. The fund did perform very well in the first half of last year. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell in the first quarter of last year, but the fund rose by 8.9%. What's more powerful is that in the second quarter, the fund continued to rise, with an increase of 27.5%, making it the best performing QDII fund in the first half of 2021.
However, it fell 3.8% in the third quarter of last year and rose 4.6% in the fourth quarter, resulting in basically no profit or loss throughout the second half of the year. But for every investor, it is very likely that many people will be trapped at high levels.
The main reason is that the Vietnamese market has risen a lot, and now I missed the best investment opportunity to buy.
On the other hand, it is also something that everyone needs to pay attention to. Don’t expect Vietnam to continue to rise sharply in the future. Instead, pay attention to the possible sharp decline in Vietnam. The most fundamental reason for
is that the appreciation of the US dollar will lead to capital outflows in emerging markets. This will have a huge impact on , a relatively small economy like Vietnam.
In the future, the Vietnamese market may fall by more than 30% at a high level during the US's continued rate hike. After
rises by 300% in three years, if it falls by 30%, the increase will drop from 300% to only 180%. Pay attention.
