directory:
, 22nd steel market!
. Price adjustment: 50! Falling 30! Today's steel mill's latest price adjustment!
, prediction: Will steel prices rise?
. Expert opinion | Is the steel industry repeating the mistake of long-term losses?
. The decline in steel prices in the domestic market increased in June
. . The supply and demand of the steel market are imbalanced. The top ten steel companies talk about how to do it in the second half of the year
. The steel market on the 22nd!
Steel futures market price
On July 22, the domestic steel market rose and fell, and the factory-exported square billet resources in Qian'an area of Tangshan were stable at 3,550 yuan/ton. The market mentality has improved significantly, some low-level resources are high and reliable, the market trading atmosphere is strong, and the trading volume has increased throughout the day.
htmlOn the 222nd, the closing price of the main contract of futures spirals rose 1.36%, DEA and DIF overlap, and the RSI three-line indicator is located at 40-45, operating between the middle and lower rails of the Bollinger band.
htmlOn the 222nd, four steel mills raised the ex-factory price of construction steel 20-60 yuan/ton, and Yonggang was reduced by 400 yuan/ton.
market price of four major varieties of steel
Construction steel: On July 22, the average price of 20mm three-level earthquake-resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 4,044 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the short term, with the increase in production and maintenance of steel mills recently, the overall supply has decreased significantly, and demand has rebounded marginally, and the market supply and demand have improved .
Hot Rolled Rolled Roll: On July 22, the average price of 4.75mm hot rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled The market price remained stable in the morning, and the market transactions were poor. In the afternoon, as the market rebounded, spot transactions improved slightly, but the overall price was still weak, and there was insufficient momentum for price increase. Overall, the overall volume of hot coils downstream is lower than expected, and downstream operations are more cautious, resulting in general merchant shipments and weak market sentiment. On the other hand, due to the large number of high-cost resources at present, merchants have a strong desire to support prices in order to reduce losses, and the market spot prices are relatively strong. In the short term, it is still recommended to reduce the database.
cold rolled plate rolls: On July 22, the average price of 1.0mm cold rolls in 24 major cities across the country was 4388 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The black futures market stopped falling and rebounded. In order to recover funds, most market merchants mainly quoted stable prices. Some market merchants secretly reduced discounted shipments, and overall transactions improved. In terms of policy, as the end of the month approaches, major steel mills have successively issued cold rolling settlement prices for July, with the Shanghai market settlement price of about 4,290 yuan/ton. According to market feedback, due to the continued inversion of merchant costs and the high pressure of cold rolled inventory in the market, merchants have pessimistic views on the future market and are not enthusiastic about ordering. The current gap in order reception in August is large, and the steel mills have a large production losses. In August, the production order schedule may be adjusted according to the order acceptance situation. As for the market next week, the current national market is under great pressure to stock cold-rolled coils, with sufficient resources, and downstream manufacturing is also in a state of slow recovery.
Medium and thick plate: On July 22, the average price of 20mm general boards in 24 major cities across the country was 4,210 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to the recent short market mentality, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is not high, and with the continued sluggish transactions, the quotations of medium and thick boards in some markets have fallen slightly, but the transactions of medium and thick boards throughout the day are still poor. In terms of resources, most markets are still mainly destocking, but due to poor demand, spot inventory has not changed much, and some markets still have pressure to destock. Overall, considering that the current market demand is still poor, .
raw fuel market price
Imported ore: On July 22, the spot market price of imported iron ore in Shandong fluctuated upward, and the market trading sentiment was relatively quiet. As of press time, Shandong has learned that some transactions are: Qingdao Port : PB powder 685 yuan/ton; Rizhao Port super special powder 565 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market price of Shandong iron ore increased by 10-15 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day, and the price of PB powder in Shandong was quoting 680-685 yuan/ton; the market price in the afternoon increased by 15-25 yuan/ton compared with the morning, and the price of PB powder was quoting 695-705 yuan/ton.
Scrap steel: On July 22, the average price of scrap steel in 45 major markets across the country was 2,272 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Specifically, the scrap steel market has slowed down in the past two days, the price rise is weak, and some regions have also seen prices fall. This phenomenon is mostly affected by the current decline in steel prices. The European Central Bank's rate hike doubled, and the Federal Reserve's rate hike is about to rise. A series of negative factors have hit commodity again. Therefore, although scrap steel resources are relatively scarce, the market is still dominated by bearish sentiment.
Coke: On July 22, the fourth round of coke price reduction was fully implemented, with the cumulative decline of four rounds of 900-940 yuan/ton. The production enthusiasm of coke companies is relatively weak, the overall operating rate continues to decline, coke inventory is slightly accumulated, the overall inventory is running at a low level, shipments are normal, the market pessimism spreads in the fourth round of implementation, and the scope of production restrictions of coke companies is expanding, affecting the further contraction of coke supply. In terms of steel mills, steel mills mostly control arrivals, mainly purchasing on demand. At present, the downstream terminal market has not improved significantly, and the profits of steel mills' finished materials are inverted, resulting in an increase in maintenance and production cuts. (My Steel Network)
. Price adjustment: 50! Falling 30! Today's steel mill's latest price adjustment!
According to data from China Steel Network Information Research Institute, , a total of 15 steel mills have adjusted their prices today, of which : has been raised by 2 companies, accounting for 13.3%, and the price adjustment range is 3. 0-50 yuan/ton, increase is the highest Jiangsu Yuhua High Line; downgraded 5 companies, accounting for 33.3%, with a price adjustment of 10-30 yuan/ton, with the largest decline being Shanxi Jinnan Line; stable 8 companies, accounting for 53.6%. specific price adjustment details are as follows:
Steel mill price adjustment
Today, a total of 8 steel mills have been built and plated to release prices, of which:
has been raised by 2, accounting for 25%, with a price adjustment range of 30-50 yuan/ton.
downgraded 2 companies, accounting for 25%, with a price adjustment range of 20-30 yuan/ton.
stable 4 companies, accounting for 50%.
Today, a total of 7 steel mills have released prices, including:
, accounting for 42.9%, with a price adjustment of 20 yuan/ton.
stable 4 companies, accounting for 57.1%.
scrap steel price adjustment information
My Steel Network News: According to my Steel APP, on July 22, as of press time, a total of 23 steel mills raised the purchase price of scrap steel and 8 lowered it.
▎North China Region
-23 [Old East China Sea, Tangshan, Hebei] part was increased by 70 3, Execution price, high-quality A2660, high-quality B2630, high-quality C2600, heavy A2570, heavy B2530, heavy C2490, punching sheet small material 2530, 08 aluminum small material 2390, 3 thick or above short ruler material 2450, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton
-23 [Anfeng, Qinhuangdao, Hebei] up to 20 , after adjustment: round steel heads, 43 kg or more rail heads, 20mm thick plate undercut material, four-thick bean 2750, mold steel, large flange sheet, 50 thick upper heavy duty 2730, large channel steel (pure), large H steel , train beam (pure) 2630, tower crane beam 2530, 2 thick horse tellurium iron 2630, rust-free small stator rotor 2450 yuan, rust-free large stator 2600, cold plate small material 2550 triangular silicon steel sheet 2550 two thick iron beans 2690 steel bar head quality 2750 excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 23 [Long'an, Qinhuangdao, Hebei] is increased by 20 , reference price: track rail, round steel head, blank head, mold steel, train wheel, thick edge corner, flange 2710, heavy scrap 2650-2690, tower crane iron 2510, horseshoe 2610-2660, 20 thick I-shaped steel 2680, pure I-shaped steel 15 thick 2630-2670, I-shaped steel 10 thick 2560, short ruler channel steel small material 2630-2650, lead screw 2660-2670.
-23 [Hongxing, Qinhuangdao, Hebei] Execution reference price: fine steel 2710, high-quality steel 2690, heavy waste A2620, heavy waste B2550, silicon Steel sheet 2520, triangular, silicon steel sheet 2520, melon seed material and cold plate crusher B2520, cold plate crusher A2540, silicon steel sheet crusher 2520-2370, steel bar pressing 2340, flower iron pressing 2340, general sales second-level 2180~2230, general sales first-level 2280~2300, small steel shavings 2350~2370, large steel shavings 2430~2450.
-22 [Hebei Canggang Mitsubishi] 2 scrap steel up to 100 .
July 22 [Hebei Cangzhou Dalipu] 2 scrap steel price 40 , the price of briquetting remains unchanged.
July 22 [Hebei Shijiazhuang Hegang Shigang] Scrap steel is down-regulated : Inlet furnace fine material: heavy duty ≥20mm2774 Heavy duty ≥15mm2761 Heavy duty ≥10mm2752 Heavy duty ≥6mm2747, medium size ≥3mm2741, small size ≥1mm2687, light and thin material ≤1mm2419; processing wool material: heavy duty ≥6mm2654, medium size ≥3mm2654, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 22 [Hebei Shijiazhuang Aosen] downgrade 20 : Flower iron block first level 2680, flower iron block second level 2530, steel bar block 2660, weight A15 thickness 2680, weight A10 thickness 2660, weight A6 thickness 2640, weight B15 thickness 2680, weight B10 thickness 2660, weight C second level 2230, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 22 [Inner Mongolia Chifeng Construction Branch Pipe Industry] lowered 100. After adjustment: grey iron 2980-3030, radiator polishing crushing material 2980-3030, bean-floating qualified material 2780, shear qualified material 2660-2760, scrap steel new sheet 2610, old sheet 2510, side wire tiles without galvanization 2580, galvanizing 2380, steel head 2580-2680, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
▎East China
July 23 [Jiangsu Wuxi New Three Continents] is raised by 20-40, the latest price: steel plate above 10 2930, mold steel 2870, horseshoe 2820-2870, heavy waste 6 thickness 2760-2820, steel bar cut head 2930, 13% tax included.
-23 [Jiangsu Lianyungang Yaxin] up to 30 : 1. Steel sheet material, mold steel 2610; 2. 12 mm thick high-quality heavy waste A2580; 3. 6 mm thick heavy waste B2490; 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2360-2390 medium waste new material, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.Rejection is rejected below 3 mm thickness, and the car surface and bottom are of different grades, so it is treated as adulterated. Specifications: 50X50.
-23 [Jiangsu Xuzhou Jinhong Steel] (specifically depends on the time of vehicle entry into the factory) All material types are unified up to 40, after adjustment: heavy scrap 2640, steel head 2580-2640, shear material 2340-2540, frame crushing 2590, color tiles crushing 2290, steel planing 2400-2500, general chip 2320-2380, iron chip pressing cake 2380, filament site 2140, filament original factory 2200, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 22 [Xingda, Jiangsu Xuzhou] part is increased by 50 , after adjustment: fine furnace material 2600-2640, cold plate tiles 2720, general shavings 2280, steel shavings 2420, punching material 2780-2830, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 22 [Jiangsu Lianyungang Ganyu Huaxin Waste Material Recycling Co., Ltd. (Yinxin Steel)] increased by 100 , after adjustment strike price: fine furnace material (new steel sheet material, mold steel, etc.) 2510-2600, heavy waste 2250-2420, medium waste 2170, silicon steel sheets stopped collecting, crushed material stopped collecting, bean rinsing 1, steel bar cutting head stopped collecting, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 22 (second time) [Jiangsu Yancheng Dafeng Lianxin] 4 is raised by another 30, is raised by a total of 50 , after adjustment, the strike price: the fine furnace material is 8 thick 2630, the weight is 10 thick 2600, the weight is 28 thick 2550, the forging material is 2480, the new hot and hot rolling punch is stopped; the site price is 30, the after adjustment, the strike price: the fine furnace material is 8 thick 2580, the weight is 10 thick 2550, the weight is 2500, the forging material is 2430, the new hot and hot rolling punch is 2400, the tax is not included.
July 22 [Jiangsu Zhenjiang Hongtai] increased by 50 , after adjustment execution price: new steel sheet material 2490, high-weight, steel head 2460, horseshoe 2420, steel bar block 2390, cold rolling, hot rolling, and punching 2400, silicon steel sheet 2350, heavy scrap 2400, crushing material 2110-2350, shearing material 2260-2290, steel shavings 1990-2040, tax excluding.
July 22 [Jiangsu Yangzhou China Airlines] is increased by 50 . After adjustment: new steel sheet material 2490, excellent weight 2460, horseshoe 2450, steel bar head 2460, pig iron 2350-2400, heavy waste 2350-2400, fine furnace material 2270-2310, wire rope 1850, crushed steel shavings 2200-2250, crushed CNC shavings 2060-2130, crushed ordinary shavings 2010-2060, excluding tax.
July 22 [Jiangsu Yangzhou Hengrun Ocean Heavy Industry] is increased by 130 , after adjustment: scraps 1 2580, scraps 2 2540, scraps 3 2500, heavy waste 1 2510, heavy waste 2 2470, heavy waste 3 2420, reinforcement block 2510. Excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 22 (second time) [ Shandong Shiheng Special Steel ] 4 30 more, cumulatively lowered 70 , specific price: 3% VAT price: heavy duty 2670, steel head 2750, industrial undercut material 2800, thin flower material 2870, pipe head 2890, steel bar block 2760, special crushing material 2740; zero tax rate price: heavy duty 2620, steel bar head 2700, industrial undercut material 2750, thin flower material 2810, pipe head 2830, steel bar block 2710, special crushing material 2690, unit: yuan/ton.
July 22 [Zhejiang Quzhou Yuanli] scrap steel base price is raised by 50-120 . After adjustment: heavy one 2790, heavy two 2760, heavy three 2710, heavy four 2580, steel column large angle steel 2860, industrial channel steel 2810, valve 2830, bearing punch 2885, fine furnace material 2870, furnace 2790, furnace 2630, middle one 2390, middle one 2190, small one 2090, small one 2000, insert edge 2130, tax included, specific price is subject to the Yuanli benchmark price list.
July 23 [Fujian Yixin] increased by 50 , the furnace material with tax price is 2800, the refined material with tax price is 2930, the punch with tax price is 2880, and the forged material with tax price is 2820, unit: yuan/ton.
▎Central Huazhong area
-23 [Hubei Daye Huaxin] upwards by 30 : Level 1 heavy waste 2720 Level 2 heavy waste 2670 Level 3-level heavy waste 2620 Level 1 heavy waste 12 thick 2680, Level 8 thick 2630 Level 3-level heavy waste 2580, mechanical pig iron 2580, steel bar cut head 2740, crushing material crushing material first punch second punch stop collection, steel bar 2460, forging material 2460, tax excluding.
2 July 22 [Henan Qinyang Hongda Steel Group] iron pins are reduced by 50 , others remain unchanged, execution price: new steel sheet material is 6 thicker than 2600, 3-5 thicker than 2550, heavy scrap 8 thicker than 2550, heavy scrap 6-8 thicker than 2550, primary material 2500, secondary material 2420, third-grade material 2340, iron sheet material 2240, first-grade pig iron steel 2500, second-grade pig iron steel parts 2450, crushed pin 2330, long-term sales 2260, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
▎ South China
July 23 [Guangdong Yangchun New Steel] till the next price adjustment, the price of scrap steel varieties is reduced by 20, unit: yuan/ton .
July 22 [Guangdong Heyuan East Guangdong] Scrap steel price 50 : heavy waste 2480 yuan, cutting material 2450 yuan, excluding tax.
July 22 [Guangdong Heyuan Zhongxin Huafeng Steel] upwards by 50 : heavy waste 2490, air cutting material 2460, medium cutting 2290. Self-pickup, excluding tax, note that it is prohibited to carry seals and other dangerous goods.
/22 [Guangdong Jinshenglan] up to 50 : Rebar granules 2710, pure steel bar head 2650, steel bar blotting stops collecting, all colors Scrap material 2630, forging material 2630, high-heavy scrap steel 2630, heavy scrap one 2590-2610, heavy scrap two 2560, medium scrap 2460-2510, shear material 2250-2300, punch 2570, all-color car material 2470-2520, pig iron 2530-2580, steel shavings and CNC 2200-2250, ordinary shavings and debris are stopped, excluding tax.
July 23 [Guangxi Xinmao Recycling Resources Recycling Co., Ltd.] Pig iron, heavy scrap, fine scissors, general scissors, etc. are increased by 50, and the purchase price of steel bars is increased by 30: 2290-2350 pig iron, heavy scrap 2260-2300, first-level steel bar pellets 2500, secondary steel bar cut 2480, steel bar briquetting is up to 2370, shearing material 2-4 thickness 2030, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 23 [Guangxi Guigang Steel] Scrap steel cast iron and steel bar blocks are reduced by 200 , others remain unchanged: current cast iron, cast steel parts, mechanical parts 2150, heavy scrap steel 2010, steel bar blocks 2170; first-level shearing material 1990, second-level shearing material 1960, vehicle messed steel bars 1910, light and thin materials 1360, pure steel bar head 2240, steel bar cutters are suspended, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 22 [Guangxi Hezhou Special Steel] increased by 30 : excellent weight 2470, pig iron hard steel 2470, mold scraps 2470, steel head 2470, heavy scraps 2470, medium and thick shears 2440, medium and thick material 2390, thin shears stop collecting, punching pieces 2410, crushed material 2410, gravel 2060-2140, regular material stop collecting, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 22 [Wuzhou Yongda, Guangxi] increased by 30 : hot and cold plate crusher 2330, industrial pure crusher 2300, steel bar pressure 2360, first-level pure pressure 2340, second-level block 2280, third-level block 2200, shearing material impurity 1980, high-carbon steel 2410, heavy scrap steel 2360, first-level cutter 2330, second-level cutter 2270, third-level cutter 2120, crushing material with a specific gravity of 1.5 is 2210, excluding tax.
▎Northeast Region
July 22 [Baodie, Liaoning Anshan] scrap steel began to be received, execution price: shearing material 2380, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 22 [Liaoning Fushun New Steel] downgrade 291: Thickness ≥20, length ≤600*800 2703, thickness ≥12, length ≤600*800 2673, thickness ≥8, length ≤600*800 2633, thickness ≥6, length ≤600*800 2573, steel bar cut head 2843, tax excluding, unit: yuan/ton. ( China Steel Network , my Steel Network)
. Forecast: Will steel prices rise?
Navigation
As the market strengthens, the market mentality improves, and the enthusiasm for terminal purchases has increased. Where should steel prices go in the later stage? Let's wait and see...
. The factors affecting the steel market are as follows
The first half of the year in China's steel bar production decreased by 14.1% year-on-year
The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in June 2022, China's steel bar production was 20.061 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.3%; the cumulative output from January to June was 117.69 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%. In June, China's medium-thick and wide steel belt production was 16.949 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%; the cumulative output from January to June was 96.03 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. In June, China's wire (bar) production was 13.054 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%; the cumulative output from January to June was 7138.2 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%.
analysts' opinion: The steel bar production in the first half of the year dropped significantly year-on-year. On the one hand, the demand was weak and profits contracted, which suppressed the production enthusiasm of steel companies. On the other hand, with the slightly smaller decline in crude steel production, the sharp decline in steel bar production also reflects the current adjustments and changes made by steel companies in the process of transformation and upgrading. The economic development situation this year is severe. Considering the continued policy of reducing crude steel, coupled with the current downward pressure on the property market, the steel bar production may continue to decline in the second half of the year, which is beneficial to the prices of building materials to a certain extent.
China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission : Support local governments to more effectively promote the work of ensuring the delivery of buildings, protecting people's livelihood and maintaining stability
At the press conference on the operation and development of the banking and insurance industry in the first half of 2022 held by the State Council Information Office, Liu Zhongrui, head of the Statistical Information and Risk Monitoring Department of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, responded to the issue of guaranteeing the delivery of buildings. He said that on June 30, the postponement of the delivery of some real estate projects in Jingdezhen, Jiangxi Province has attracted social attention. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission attaches great importance to this and actively strengthens coordination and cooperation with the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the People's Bank of China and departments to support local governments to more effectively promote the work of ensuring the delivery of buildings, people's livelihood and stability.
analyst's opinion: ensuring the delivery of buildings means protecting people's livelihood and stable work. At present, the banking and insurance industry is generally operating steadily. With the exposure of problems such as "delaying delivery" and arousing close attention from the society, in the next step, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission will guide banks to actively participate in related work, do a good job in credit issuance with conditions, and assist in promoting the resumption of work as soon as possible and delivery early. At the same time, we will guide banks to provide good service to customers, protect the legitimate rights and interests of financial consumers in accordance with the law, help local governments stabilize the real estate market, and help the real estate market recover, which is beneficial to the steel market in the medium and long term.
European Central Bank raised all three key interest rates by 50 basis points
European Central Bank raised all three key interest rates by 50 basis points, and the market expected a 25 basis points rate hike, the first rate hike in 11 years, and the interest rate will take effect from July 27, 2022. Eurozone to July 21, the European Central Bank's main refinancing rate is 0.5%, expected to be 0.25%, and the previous value is 0.00%. ECB: In line with its firm commitment to price stability, the ECB has taken further key measures to ensure inflation returns to its 2% target in the medium term.
analysts' opinion: The 50 basis points hike of the ECB indicates that the ECB's loose monetary policy over has begun to reverse in the past 10 years. Regarding the pace of subsequent interest rate hikes, the ECB stated that it would decide to raise interest rates "sequentially". Currently, traders are betting that the ECB will raise interest rates by 60 basis points in September. The tightening of monetary policy will help curb inflation and stabilize prices, but it will have a certain negative impact on the prices of commodities circulating internationally.
Central Bank conducted 3 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation
On July 22, the central bank conducted 3 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with the winning rate of 2.10%, the same as before.
Mid-term Association: In June 2022, the overall net profit of futures companies increased by 47.94% month-on-month
As of the end of June 2022, there were 150 futures companies nationwide, distributed in 31 jurisdictions. In June 2022, the transaction volume was 47.83 trillion yuan, the transaction volume was 571 million lots, the operating income was 4.43 billion yuan, and the net profit was 1.592 billion yuan, and the net profit increased by 47.94% month-on-month and 16.64% year-on-year.
2. In the spot market,
rebar oscillating and running
Today's opens later snail maintains narrow range fluctuation . The spot trading atmosphere is relatively average, and some merchants choose to adjust slightly downwardly to promote shipments. However, after the mid-term spiral rebound, market trading gradually became active. With the initial development of the snail in the afternoon, the improvement in transactions was maintained, and spot low-level resources gradually disappeared. It is expected that the price of construction steel will fluctuate tomorrow.
hot coil fluctuated narrowly
This period of the coil fluctuated upward, the market mentality was weak, the trading atmosphere was average, the overall wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and the transaction volume was not good. It is expected that the price of hot coils would rise steadily tomorrow.
middle board narrow-range sorting
today related futures trends have risen during the session, but demand is difficult to follow up. Merchants' mentality is under pressure, and the price is low to promote transactions. In terms of steel mills, the market fundamentals are still weak, and merchants are more inclined to wait and see. Considering that costs are still supported, the short-term market price is expected to be consolidated in a stable and narrow manner.
strip steel narrow adjustment
national strip steel runs weakly and stably, overall, generally slightly worse, medium-wide spot stock is weakly adjusted, the market mainly focuses on transactions of low-priced resources, but high-level is difficult, manufacturers are still lacking confidence, and transaction performance is weak. Considering the slow release of demand, it is expected that it will rise steadily tomorrow.
profiles are stable and organized
period spiral fluctuated and kept running red, spot market operation sentiment was boosted, and some companies rose slightly after a decline. Overall, it is expected that the short-term profile prices will be consolidated and operated steadily.
Pipes are consolidating
Futures fluctuated upward today, and costs have risen. Some pipe manufacturers followed suit. However, the market still has a bullish mentality, and the actual market demand has not improved significantly, and the overall mentality is still relatively cautious. Taking into account comprehensively, it is expected that the pipeline will consolidate stably tomorrow.
. In terms of raw material market,
Steel billets are weak and running
Today, the narrow band is mainly stable and the overall transaction is average. Some people clear daily production, the main line snails are stable and the transaction is still acceptable. Some manufacturers stop orders, scrap steel is weak and wait and see, some arrive more, and the direct transaction is average. It is expected that the price of steel billets will be stable and weak tomorrow.
Iron ore is weak and stable operation
At present, the mentality of mine selection is weak. Although some steel mills and other parties inquire, the price reduction sentiment is strong and the price is low. However, the mineral selection considers production costs and other factors, and is mostly waiting and waiting, low prices are not recognized, and the market trading is stalemate. It is expected that market demand will not improve in the short term. It is expected that the overall price of minerals will be weak and stable operation tomorrow.
Coke is stable and weak
Domestic coke market is running weakly. In terms of supply, the current production enthusiasm of coke companies is low, coke supply continues to tighten, coke companies' shipments have slowed down significantly, and the inventories in the factory have accumulated slightly, and the shipment pressure of some coke companies has increased. Coke companies have pessimistic expectations for the future market. In terms of demand, steel mills continue to suffer losses, the scope of blast furnace maintenance continues to expand, and the finished material market continues to be sluggish, and demand for coke weakens. It is expected that the coke market will operate stably and weakly in the short term.
Scrap steel narrow range adjustment
This period of screw fluctuates and rises. Traders have a good mentality, but steel mills are reluctant to raise prices due to profit reasons, and some high-priced steel mills are mostly under price pressure. The steel mills arrive today, and the market is mainly waiting and watching. It is expected that the short-term scrap steel narrow range adjustment will be carried out.
Pig iron continues to be weak
Domestic pig iron market is stable and weak, with poor transactions. Recently, coke and ore have weakened, and pig iron costs have continued to decline. With the mentality of buying up but not falling, downstream demand is mainly for purchasing, and the market trading atmosphere is light. Some of them have stopped production, and the goods are consumed in small quantities and high prices are high as inventory, and the market prices are chaotic. At present, pig iron demand and cost support are both weak. It is expected that the pig iron market will continue to be weak in the short term.
4. Comprehensive suggestions
Specifically, the market fluctuated upward today, the market today's trading atmosphere is strong, the enthusiasm for terminal purchases is gradually heating up, speculative demand has entered the market one after another, and the demand release rate is poor. The contraction on the supply side has certain support for prices. As the market strengthens, the market mentality improves, and the enthusiasm for terminal purchases has increased. It is expected that steel prices will rise steadily tomorrow. (China Steel Network)
. Expert opinion | Is the steel industry repeating the mistake of long-term losses?
In recent times, steel prices have accelerated their decline and the industry's profitability has declined. Market concerns are everywhere, believing that overcapacity will cause the industry to start a long-term recession again, and be prepared to live a tight life, etc. So, what are the reasons for the current dilemma of the steel industry? Where is the way out? Let’s take a look at the views of Xu Xiangchun, an expert in the Steel Market Expert Group of the Propaganda and Exchange Working Committee of the China Steel Industry Association and the Information Director of Shanghai Steel Federation.
core views: , In the second quarter, demand collapsed, supply rigidity, and raw material prices were firmly superimposed on external Feder exceeds expectations and other factors have caused a sharp drop in steel prices , and the industry is facing the most difficult period since the supply-side reform. 2. Historical experience shows that in the case of severe supply surplus, if the supply and demand relationship is not actively adjusted, it is easy to enter a vicious cycle of cost reduction - price reduction - loss by relying solely on "reducing costs and increasing efficiency". In order to avoid falling into prisoner's dilemma, steel enterprises should actively reduce production according to changes in the industry's supply and demand, strengthen industry self-discipline construction to get out of the dilemma as soon as possible . Leading enterprises should play an example role. 3. There is still uneven profit distribution in the upstream and downstream of steel enterprises, and the "intestinal obstruction" of price transmission in the industrial chain, which is also one of the main reasons for steel enterprises' losses. We call on relevant departments to increase efforts to ensure prices and stabilize supply, and promote coking coal prices to return to normal. 4. In the second half of the year, the supply and demand relationship of market will show a trend of "demand will increase and supply will decline significantly", and prices are expected to rebound. 5. In the long run, the supply side has eliminated the possibility of blind expansion under the influence of industry policies such as reducing crude steel production and "double carbon"; after supply-side reform, the space for enterprises to fight price wars will become increasingly narrow. Whether in terms of industry fundamentals or policy logic, it is very unlikely that the steel industry will repeat the mistake of long-term losses.
Q1: Steel prices have fallen sharply recently. Last week, Mysteel surveyed the profit margin of 274 steel companies only 13.85%, a year-on-year decrease of 68.83%, almost returning to the level in 2015. What do you think is the reason for the current loss situation in the entire industry?
丨Xu Xiangchun: Since the second quarter, the steel industry has fallen into large-scale losses, which is the most difficult period since supply-side structural reform . The reason for this phenomenon is mainly due to the collapse of the demand side. Since the second half of last year, real estate operations have been deteriorating. The June real estate data released by the National Bureau of Statistics is still declining. The year-on-year growth rate of new home construction area hit a new low since February 2020, and the land purchase area fell by 48.3% year-on-year. Coupled with factors such as the impact of the epidemic and weakening of home purchase expectations, the risk of a short-term "hard landing" in the real estate industry is intensifying, greatly dragging down the demand for steel. It is estimated that steel demand in the first half of the year fell by 9% year-on-year, and , among which the demand for steel for the construction industry represented by real estate fell by a larger rate, directly leading to a 18% year-on-year decrease in rebar demand. The sharp shrinkage of demand in a short period of time has caused a major impact on prices and market mentality.
At the same time, the demand collapsed, but the steel output did not respond to changes in time. The first quarter Winter Olympics were held, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region strictly implemented production restrictions. The national crude steel production was 243.38 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5%. The sharp decline in supply hedged the impact of the contraction of demand at the beginning of the year, and the overall price performance was basically stable. However, with the end of production restrictions, steel production has been rising steadily. In the second quarter, crude steel production rebounded to 283.5 million tons, and the average daily output increased by 12.7% compared with the first quarter. Supply and demand are severely imbalanced, and inventory has also experienced anti-seasonal changes. The stock has not been removed in the peak season, and the overall trend is flat. The latest issue of Mysteel surveyed the inventory data of five major varieties of 20.4302 million tons. only fell by 18% since its high point this year, a significant slowdown from the 30%-50% decline in previous years.
The third reason is that the price transmission of the steel industry chain has encountered "intestinal obstruction". As demand shrinks sharply, black-type prices fell across the board, but the decline in steel was significantly greater than that of raw fuel. From April to July 18, the comprehensive steel price index fell by 22%, the comprehensive coke price index fell by 21%, the comprehensive coke coal price index fell by 14%, and the scrap steel price index fell by 29%. Compared with last year, the comprehensive steel price index fell by 28% year-on-year, the price of 62% iron ore fell by 54% year-on-year, and the price index of coking coal and coke increased by 30% and 5% year-on-year. coking coal and coke prices are strong, resulting in a decrease of only about 20%, which is far smaller than the decline in steel, and steel turns from profit to loss.
Overall, the contradiction between supply and demand has intensified, raw fuel prices are strong, and the external Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes exceeding expectations, steel prices continued to fall sharply in July, hitting a new low this year, and steel companies also entered a comprehensive loss simultaneously. The steel industry is experiencing the most difficult period since the supply-side structural reform.
Q2: Recently, many steel companies have proposed response strategies to the current situation, mainly focusing on measures to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Do you think it can effectively solve the difficulties?
丨Xu Xiangchun: For individual enterprises, reducing costs and increasing efficiency and compressing inventory are important ways to survive. However, in the period of severe supply surplus, this approach has also learned profound lessons in history.
013-2015 over-steel production was very serious. Everyone puts the expansion of market share first, lacks the initiative to reduce production, and hopes to gain a competitive advantage by reducing costs. The cost of raw materials has indeed dropped again and again, with iron ore prices as low as US$37 and coke exceeding 700 yuan, which is not low. But what is the result? The entire industry is in losses, and a large number of enterprises have broken cash flow, and no enterprise has made profits by reducing costs.
Therefore, while steel companies are working hard to reduce costs, they should take strong measures from the supply side, consciously reduce supply, and maintain dynamic balance in the market, so as to obtain reasonable profits. hesitate and wait and see for various "sufficient reasons" such as "the unit fixed cost is too high, workers' wages are falling, and the local economic scale and tax income are preserved", hoping that others will benefit from reducing production, and attempt to improve the profitability of enterprises by relying solely on lower costs and win over the peers. History has proved that this kind of response measures of "each sweeping away the snow in front of their own doors, not caring about the frost on others" will only fall into the prisoner's dilemma of falling and losing more and more.
So is the production restriction really a magic pill? We speak with facts. The cement industry also has a serious overcapacity, and it has repeatedly fought price wars, making the industry miserable. Finally, a consensus was reached, and in 2014, the staggered production in winter and summer was actively implemented, effectively resolving the problem of oversupply, stabilizing prices and improving efficiency. In recent years, the sales profit margin of the cement industry has reached 18%, and its profit level is far higher than that of the steel industry. There are also successful examples in the steel industry. In the fourth quarter of last year, steel demand shrank sharply, but due to a sharp drop of 15% year-on-year in the second half of the year, it effectively hedged the negative impact of demand. With the steel price falling by more than 1,000 yuan in more than a month, the profit margin of steel companies remained above 70%, only down 10 percentage points, without any damage. In the first quarter of this year, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region had staggered production, with output falling by 30% year-on-year, which also caused a national output to drop by 10%. Although demand was sluggish in the first quarter, the market supply and demand relationship did not deteriorate before May, and the overall price operation was maintained.
In actual production restrictions, small and medium-sized enterprises, especially short-process enterprises, have done better. Taking May as an example, as of the end of May, Mysteel surveyed the average capacity utilization rate of 85 independent arc furnace steel mills was 55.87%, a year-on-year decrease of 27.96%. However, the output of Changzhi steel mills increased instead of falling. At the end of May, 247 steel mills had blast furnace iron utilization capacity utilization rate of 89.26%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.19%. in May, a national pig iron production of 80.49 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.8% and a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, setting a record high, which shows that Changzhi steel mills have not made moderate production cuts .
Recently, nearly 20 listed steel companies have released interim results, of which more than 80% of the net profits have declined, and some steel companies are expected to lose even year-on-year. Many steel companies realize that the crisis is approaching, and the hard-won results of reform may be put into full swing again. Only by adapting to changes in supply and demand, actively controlling output, establishing industry self-discipline, and maintaining market order can we return to the path of high-quality development.
Therefore, we call on large steel mills, especially the leading steel mills, to set an example in industry self-discipline. not only holds meetings and shouts slogans during difficult times in the industry, but takes the lead in moderate production reduction. This can not only serve as an example, but also play a positive role in enhancing market confidence.
Q3: In addition to promoting the industry self-discipline mechanism, what kind of support do you think the industry should get at this stage?
丨Xu Xiangchun: is different from the past when iron ore prices rose too fast to erode the profit of tons of steel. In this round of "double-coke" prices, the main If the price of coking coal rose sharply year-on-year, the cost burden of the steel industry will be increased . From the mid-year report released by coal companies, we can see that the net profit of some coal companies has increased by nearly 6 times at the highest, which is "dually from both ice and fire" with the interim performance of steel companies, and the profits of the industrial chain are obviously tilted upstream.
The main reason is related to the surge in energy prices caused by the turbulent international situation. Australian coal imports continue to be restricted, and the increase in Mongolian coal imports is also difficult to meet expectations. In addition, due to the strict prevention of shutdowns and power supply in various places, thermal coal has become the main focus of the policy of ensuring price and stabilizing supply, but it has further aggravated the tightness of coking coal supply, causing its price to gradually deviate from the reasonable range.
Let’s look at another set of data. From the demand perspective, pig iron production in the first half of the year decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, indicating that the demand for coking coal and coke has also declined. From the perspective of industrial chain prices, the comprehensive steel price index fell by 28% year-on-year, the price of 62% iron ore fell by 54% year-on-year, and the price index of coking coal and coke increased by 30% and 5% year-on-year. While demand declines and other prices in the industrial chain are falling sharply, coking coal prices rose by 30% against the trend. This abnormal phenomenon of is difficult to explain by supply and demand relationship, but is a manifestation of market failure. It is recommended that appropriate intervention should be made.
There are examples to follow when intervening in excessive prices.In the past year, in order to ensure the supply and price stability of coal, the National Development and Reform Commission has issued documents to further improve the coal market price formation mechanism, guide the price of thermal coal to operate within a reasonable range, limit the long-term contract price to the range of 570-770 yuan/ton, strengthen daily price fluctuations monitoring, and take heavy measures against behaviors such as hoarding goods and price gouging, which has achieved good results and has also gained valuable experience. Therefore, for the excessively high coking coal prices, relevant departments are called on to study and introduce policies to promote profit distribution to return to the right track to maintain the healthy development of the industry.
Q4: The price has dropped sharply recently, and the market mentality is extremely pessimistic. Has the market improved in the second half of the year?
丨Xu Xiangchun: As the epidemic has eased, the economy has begun to get out of the trough. The data released just now shows that the economy has bottomed out and rebounded, and is expected to continue to recover in the second half of the year. The implementation of policies to stabilize growth and the improvement of economic fundamentals will support steel demand in the second half of the year better than in the first half of the year.
In terms of supply, the policy of reducing steel output will continue to be implemented, This means that even if the output is the same as last year, the average daily crude steel output in the second half of the year will drop by 160,000 tons compared with the first half of the year. If the reduction efforts are increased, the output will further decrease .
demand and supply decline, making the supply and demand relationship significantly better in the second half of the year than in the first half of the year. This not only creates conditions for the market rebound, but also improves the operating conditions of steel enterprises.
Q5: The market is concerned that the steel industry will enter long-term losses, and will face "hand-to-hand battle against bayonets, which will last for at least five years." So do you think this is a phased decline or a prelude to long-term difficulties?
丨Xu Xiangchun: The current situation in the steel industry is indeed very serious. Whether this phenomenon is a phased or a long-term trend start needs to be analyzed from multiple aspects.
First of all, from the perspective of demand, the demand declined this year beyond expectations, which is an impact caused by the superposition of many factors and an abnormal phenomenon.
China's steel demand has peaked, and it is expected that demand will fluctuate on the platform in the next ten years or so. I won’t go into the story here. Take real estate as an example only. Since real estate is the largest steel-using industry, grasping the real estate trend, we will judge the trend of changing steel demand. The sales area of commercial housing in 2021 was 1.794 billion square meters, which has entered the peak range. Due to the decline in population size and the intensification of aging, it is difficult to have room for a significant increase in the future. What is the trend after the peak? According to forecasts by many institutions, China's urbanization is 65%, which is a certain gap with the level of developed countries. The continued promotion of urbanization will provide basic support for housing demand. With factors such as improvement and demolition, the sales scale of commercial housing may remain at 1.4-1.5 billion square meters in the future for a considerable period.
In the short term, the risks in the real estate industry are rising rapidly, and short-term "pain" is inevitable. After high leverage and high debt risks are released, real estate is expected to enter a new balance period. The sales area of commercial housing in the first half of this year decreased by 22.2% year-on-year, assuming that the annual decrease was 15%, then the sales area this year will be about 1.52 billion square meters. Judging from the current decline, there may be a possibility of one step in place , and the possibility of further continuous decline is relatively small. Once the real estate adjustment is basically in place, this will provide strong support for the demand of the steel industry. Therefore, it is impossible to simply deduce the abnormal decline in steel demand this year into a spiral decline. In terms of supply, after a round of supply-side structural reform, the huge burden of serious overcapacity of steel production has been basically removed, especially the removal of 140 million tons of ground steel production capacity, greatly purifying the market environment. This point is one of the major differences from the industry fundamentals from 2013 to 2015. On the other hand, the industry is still scared of the harsh market environment that year. The fierce price war not only failed to achieve the goal of clearing it, but also dragged the entire industry into a quagmire of comprehensive losses. Later, the supply-side reform and forced production suspension and restrictions were used in 2016-2019 to lower the raw material prices and raise the prices of steel, and the industry's profits were improved. The ups and downs of the industry over the past few years have led to a public opinion atmosphere and consensus on self-discipline production restrictions in the industry, and the space for price wars will become smaller and smaller.
In addition, it is particularly important to point out that From the perspective of policy logic, in order to achieve high-quality development, we will not sit idly by and watch the occurrence of vicious competition and long-term losses in the steel industry.
During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, my country's steel industry has deepened supply-side structural reform and achieved remarkable results in resolving excess capacity. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the national competent authorities proposed to continue to strictly prohibit the addition of new steel production capacity, and studied and implemented differentiated control policies based on carbon emissions, pollutant emissions, total energy consumption, capacity utilization, etc., improve a long-term mechanism to prevent overcapacity, and increase the intensity of investigation and punishment of illegal and irregular behaviors. While strictly controlling production capacity, adjust production in a timely manner. Especially last year, when it was proposed to reduce crude steel production, it was considered almost impossible to have a task inside and outside the industry, and it was successfully completed by the end of the year. This year, it continued to propose to reduce crude steel production. The strict implementation of these policies will prevent the industry from entering blind and disorderly expansion again.
Comprehensive the above points, Although the current steel industry is affected by cyclical and sudden factors, profits have entered a phased decline, and overall losses are temporary. With the implementation of self-discipline production restrictions and production reduction policies, the industry's profit situation will improve. As for the situation of vicious price competition again and long-term losses in the entire industry, this possibility is relatively small. In the new stage of development, I have good expectations for the steel industry to achieve high-quality development.
(Pictures are from the Internet)
(China Steel Industry Association, My Steel Network)
. In June, the decline in steel prices in the domestic market increased
In June, national policy measures for stabilizing growth were successively introduced and implemented one after another, but the demand situation of steel is still lower than expected, steel production decreased month-on-month, raw fuel prices fell, and steel prices also fell. Since July, steel prices have continued to decline slightly.
Domestic steel price index decreased by a month-on-month decrease of
According to monitoring by the China Steel Industry Association, at the end of June, the China Steel Price Index (CSPI) was 122.52 points, down 10.67 points, down 8.01%, an increase of 3.13 percentage points from May, down 2 consecutive months, down 20.96 points year-on-year, down 14.61%, down 3 consecutive months (see Figure 1).
From November to June, the average CSPI was 133.92 points, a year-on-year decrease of 3.93 points, a decrease of 2.85%. Judging from the monthly situation, January-April showed a continuous upward trend, and May-June showed a downward trend.
Long materials and board prices continue to decline.
At the end of June, the CSPI long material index was 127.14 points, a month-on-month decrease of 10.93 points, a decrease of 7.92%; the CSPI plate index was 122.06 points, a month-on-month decrease of 9.74 points, a decrease of 7.39%. The long and plate indexes fell by 18.00 points and 22.96 points year-on-year, with a decrease of 12.40% and 15.83% respectively (see Figure 2 and Table 1).
From January to June, the average CSPI long material index was 139.26 points, a year-on-year decrease of 1.53 points, a decrease of 1.09%; the average CSPI board index was 131.92 points, a year-on-year decrease of 6.28 points, a decrease of 4.54%, 3.45 percentage points higher than the long material.
main varieties of steel prices have all declined.
At the end of June, the prices of eight major steel varieties monitored by the Iron and Steel Association continued to decline, and the decline was increased compared with May.Among them, the prices of high-line, grade III steel bars, angle steel, medium-thick plates, hot-rolled coils, cold-rolled thin plates, galvanized plates and hot-rolled seamless pipes decreased by 372 yuan/ton, 393 yuan/ton, 451 yuan/ton, 400 yuan/ton, 410 yuan/ton, 460 yuan/ton, 441 yuan/ton and 305 yuan/ton respectively (see Table 2).
CSPI comprehensive index shows a fluctuating and downward trend.
, the CSPI comprehensive index showed a volatile downward trend, with a slight increase in the first and second weeks; the third and fourth weeks turned from rising to falling; since July, steel prices have continued to decline (see Table 3).
Steel price index in major regions continues to decline.
, the steel price index of CSPI's six major regions in the country continued to decline. Among them, the steel price index in North China, Northeast China, East China, South Central and Southwest China and Northwest China decreased by 8.29%, 8.02%, 8.35%, 7.53%, 7.80% and 7.74% month-on-month respectively. From January to June, the average steel price index in the six major regions all declined, with the declines of 2.24%, 2.94%, 3.25%, 2.64%, 3.38% and 1.54% respectively (see Table 4).
domestic steel prices continue to show a downward trend
As the domestic market demand for steel is growing less than expected, coupled with the prices of raw fuels such as iron ore and coal coke continue to fall, the support role of cost has also weakened, and steel prices continue to show a downward trend.
The demand growth in the main steel industry is lower than expected.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June, the GDP increased by 2.5% year-on-year, of which 0.4% year-on-year in the second quarter, and the growth rate fell by 4.4 percentage points from the first quarter; national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 6.1% year-on-year, down by 0.1 percentage point from January to May. Infrastructure investment increased by 7.1% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points faster than from January to May. Manufacturing investment increased by 10.4% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from January to May; real estate development investment decreased by 5.4% year-on-year, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from January to May. The newly started housing area fell by 30.6%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points from January to May. In June, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 3.9% year-on-year, accelerating by 3.2 percentage points from May. Among them, the general equipment manufacturing industry grew by 1.1%, the special equipment manufacturing industry grew by 6.0%, the automobile manufacturing industry grew by 16.2%, the railway, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry grew by 6.7%, and the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry grew by 12.9%. Judging from the overall situation, the infrastructure and manufacturing industry situation showed signs of improvement in June, but the situation of the real estate industry with a large amount of steel is still not optimistic.
Both steel production and net steel export volume have decreased.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in June, the national output of pig iron, crude steel and steel (including repeat materials) were 76.88 million tons, 90.73 million tons and 118.42 million tons, respectively, up 0.5%, down 3.3% and 2.3% year-on-year; the daily output of crude steel was 3.0243 million tons, down 3.0% month-on-month. According to customs statistics, in June, the country exported 7.56 million tons of steel, imported 790,000 tons of steel, and net exported 6.77 million tons of steel, a decrease of 180,000 tons month-on-month. Overall, both domestic market supply and demand declined in June, but demand was weaker than supply, and the market showed a temporary oversupply trend.
The prices of major raw fuels continued to fall month-on-month.
At the end of June, the price of domestic iron concentrate fell by 7.54% month-on-month, an increase of 1.74 percentage points from May; the price of imported CIOPI ore fell by 4.60% month-on-month, an increase of 0.89 percentage points from May; the price of coking coal and metallurgical coke fell by 3.41% and 1.53% month-on-month, a decrease of 13.57 and 17.36 percentage points from May; the price of scrap steel fell by 7.21% month-on-month, an increase of 3.35 percentage points from May. It is worth noting that although the price of coal coke continued to decline month-on-month, the month-on-month decline narrowed significantly, and there was still a high year-on-year increase (see Table 5).
international steel prices increased month-on-month decline
In June, the CRU international steel price index was 298.9 points, a month-on-month decrease of 34.0 points, a decrease of 10.2%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points from May; a year-on-year decrease of 24.2 points, a decrease of 7.5% (see Figure 3).
board price drops more than long materials.
In June, the CRU long material index was 313.4 points, a month-on-month decrease of 19.4 points, a decrease of 5.8%, an increase of 4.4 percentage points from May; the CRU plate index was 291.8 points, a decrease of 41.1 points from the previous month, a decrease of 12.3%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points from May, a decrease of 6.5 percentage points from the previous year; the CRU long material index rose by 43.4 points year-on-year, an increase of 16.1%; the CRU plate index fell by 57.6 points year-on-year, a decrease of 16.5% (see Figure 4 and Table 6).
North America, Europe and Asia steel prices continue to decline.
North American market steel prices fell by 9.1% month-on-month.
In June, the CRU North American steel price index was 340.4 points, a month-on-month decrease of 34.0 points, a decrease of 9.1%; the US manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers' index) was 53.0%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.1 percentage points. At the end of June, the U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate was 79.3%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.1 percentage points. In June, among the main steel varieties of steel mills in the Midwest United States, the prices of long materials were basically stable, while the prices of plates continued to decline and the decline increased (see Table 7).
The European market steel price fell by 12.2%.
In June, the CRU European steel price index was 363.9 points, a month-on-month decrease of 50.7 points, a decrease of 12.2%; the euro zone manufacturing PMI was 52.1%, a month-on-month. Among them, the manufacturing PMIs of Germany, Italy, France and Spain were 52.0%, 50.9%, 51.4% and 52.6%, respectively, all of which declined. In June, except for the wire and steel that rebounded slightly, the other major steel varieties in the German market continued to decline (see Table 8).
Asian market steel prices fell by 9.3%.
In June, the CRU Asian steel price index was 238.6 points, a month-on-month decrease of 24.6 points, a decrease of 9.3%; Japan's manufacturing PMI was 52.7%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.6 percentage points; South Korea's manufacturing PMI was 51.3%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.5 percentage points; India's manufacturing PMI was 53.9%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.7 percentage points; China's manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, a month-on-month increase of 0.6 percentage points. In June, the prices of major steel varieties in the Indian market continued to decline, and the month-on-month decline increased (see Table 9).
downstream industries are expected to gradually release steel demand in
As the prevention and control situation of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is further stabilized, the effects of national policy measures to stabilize growth will gradually emerge, and the steel demand in the downstream industries is expected to gradually release in the later stage. The supply and demand in the steel market will form a new balance, and steel prices will stop falling and stabilize. policies and measures to stabilize growth are implemented one after another, and steel demand is expected to recover faster.
In the second half of the year, the domestic and international situation is still complicated. International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Kristalina Georgieva said on July 13 that due to factors such as the destruction of global supply chains caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the soaring commodity prices, and severe inflation, the recovery of major economies after the epidemic has been hindered. In July, the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report will once again lower its global economic growth expectations this year and next two years. Judging from the domestic situation, in the face of significantly increased downward pressure, my country has efficiently coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, increased macro-policy adjustment efforts, and introduced a package of policy measures to stabilize the economic market. Judging from the later situation, in addition to continuing to implement existing policies, the issuance and use of special bonds will be accelerated. The 102 major construction projects in the 14th Five-Year Plan must also be implemented, coupled with the efforts of policies to promote consumption, the effects of various policies and measures to stabilize the economy in the second half of the year will be further revealed, and the steel demand situation is expected to improve in the later period.
steel output increased month-on-month, but was still lower than the same period last year. As the domestic steel market prices continued to fall sharply, the loss of steel enterprises expanded, the loss amount continued to rise, and the enthusiasm for production decreased significantly. In June, the average daily output of crude steel in the country decreased month-on-month this year, and steel production is expected to continue to decline in July. According to statistics from the Iron and Steel Association, in early July, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises reached 2.0748 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.98%. Based on this, it is estimated that the national average daily crude steel production is 2.8718 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.83%. Judging from the later situation, as downstream demand is gradually released, a new balance trend is expected to form on both the supply and demand ends.
Social inventory has declined, and corporate inventory has risen. The logistics blockage caused by the epidemic has improved significantly in the past two months, local market demand has gradually started, and social inventory of steel has declined, but corporate inventory is still high, which brings certain pressure on the later steel price trend. As of early July, the social inventory of five major steel varieties in 21 cities was 12.03 million tons, a decrease of 490,000 tons from the end of June, a decrease of 3.9%; an increase of 4.15 million tons from the beginning of this year, a increase of 52.7%; an increase of 200,000 tons year-on-year, an increase of 1.7%. Judging from the inventory of enterprises, as of early July, the inventory of key steel enterprises was 18.05 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons from the end of June, an increase of 6.5%; an increase of 6.75 million tons from the beginning of this year, an increase of 59.76%; an increase of 3.99 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 28.4%.
Steel companies should have rational judgment on the later market
First, the problem of steel prices continuing to fall lies in the steel demand side, but the actual solution is on the steel supply side. The demand recovery lags behind the recovery of production, which is the fundamental reason for this round of continuous decline in steel prices. Steel enterprises should have rational judgments, realistic choices, and positive responses to the later market. They should aim to meet user needs and balance supply and demand as the principle, arrange production reasonably according to market demand, and maintain the smooth operation of the market.
Second, although the price of raw fuel has dropped, the impact on corporate costs will continue for a period of time in the later period. Recently, although the price of raw fuel has declined and the supply trend has generally stabilized, due to the long-term delay in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, international energy supply continues to be tight, and the impact of domestic raw fuel supply on costs will continue. Steel enterprises should be fully prepared for this. In addition to actively coordinated to ensure supply and stabilize prices of raw fuel, they should also continue to carry out benchmarking potential and cost reduction work. (China Steel Industry Association)
. The supply and demand of the steel market are imbalanced. The top ten steel companies talk about how to do it in the second half of
My Steel Network News: Review in the first half of 2022, affected by the epidemic, macroeconomic data fell significantly, and downstream demand was sluggish, which led to a decline in steel prices. At the same time, factors such as the conflict in Russia and Ukraine have led to high prices of upstream raw materials, and the profits of steel mills and markets are meager, and some steel companies have entered the ranks of suspension of production and maintenance.
2 has arrived. How will the steel industry cope with the current severe situation? Recently, 10 steel companies have responded to the current industry situation, market hot spots and response strategies. The specific content is as follows:
Hot Question: How do you view the current market situation and supply and demand relationship? What is the current business operation status?
Baosteel Co., Ltd.: and August will be the most difficult two months of operation. The subsequent market conditions will rebound, but it will be difficult for steel prices and market demand to return to the highs at the beginning of the year. The current macro environment is complex and changeable and the steel market situation is grim. China Baowu Group Corporation is doing its best to promote the "three reductions and two increase" in a normal and systematic manner, comprehensively benchmark and find differences, continuously improve efficiency and efficiency, establish Baowu's long-term and lasting competitive advantages, and accelerate the promotion of high-quality development of the enterprise.
Puyang Steel: At present, the steel market situation is extremely severe, with very few making money and losing money. The entire industry has entered a cycle of general losses. Moreover, from the perspective of supply and demand relationship, from the perspective of international and domestic economic situation, and from the perspective of market development laws, this cycle will be very long. From frequent production restrictions in the first quarter to the epidemic lockdown in April, downstream demand has contracted, market expectations have weakened, raw material prices have risen, finished products have fallen sharply, inventory has been warned of a long-term high level, a large amount of working capital has been occupied, steel companies have declined ability to resist market risks, and steel mills’ profits have shrunk by more than 50%. One-third of the industry's companies suffered losses in May, and the losses continued to increase in June, and basically all industries fell into losses in July.
shan Steel Group: When the market fell rapidly in the second quarter and the profit level of the steel industry declined sharply, it actively responded to market fluctuations and tapped potential and increased profits in all aspects. In the environment where the profit level of the steel industry fell by nearly 60% year-on-year, Shan Steel Group's decline was lower than the industry average, and its comparative advantage was becoming increasingly obvious.
Angang Group: Reviewed in the first half of the year, in the extremely difficult external environment, Angang implemented the strategic deployment of the group company in accordance with the general requirements of the Party Central Committee of "the epidemic must be prevented, the economy must be stabilized, and development must be safe", and made every effort to prevent the epidemic, ensure operation, stabilize operation, and promote transformation. The overall enterprise showed a stable development trend. However, due to the impact of the "three difficulties" of difficulty in production control, difficulty in operation, and difficulty in market decline, production operation suffered a serious impact, and the operating results were lower than expected.
Taigang Group: Faced with the trend of weak demand, falling prices and falling profits in the steel market, we must follow the deployment requirements of "the epidemic must be prevented, the economy must be stabilized, and development must be safe", transmit pressure layer by layer, guide all employees to effectively strengthen their awareness of crisis, always keep a clear mind, establish the idea of living a "tight life" and fighting a protracted war, be guided by market and value creation, strengthen business awareness, deepen benchmarking, tap potential, reduce costs and increase efficiency, and do our best to improve business level, and gather stronger resilience and competitive advantages to deal with risks and challenges.
Hunan Steel Group: In response to the current severe situation of the steel industry's sharp decline, it has deployed and implemented a series of measures to clarify the situation, set measures, fight the crisis, and ensure survival, mobilize all employees, throw away their fantasies, fight with the water, strengthen confidence, and overcome the crisis. In the first half of this year, the group company overcame the severe difficulties of continued high raw fuel prices and the price of steel products falling month by month, and internal production and operation indicators remained stable and progressing. However, since mid-June, as the industry's wire rod and other steel varieties have turned losses into losses, the group company's operating efficiency has also declined significantly.
Shagang Yongxing: In 2022, affected by external factors such as the complex and severe macro environment, the superimposed epidemic of the Russian-Ukraine war, as well as internal factors such as the sharp decline in domestic market demand, increased inventory pressure, and intensified market competition, as of July, most of the national steel companies were in a loss state, and the steel industry ushered in another cold winter. It is speculated that this severe market situation and living environment may last for a long time.
Angang Group: At present, Angang has encountered certain difficulties in its production and operation. Whether it is to achieve the annual scheduled goals or to outperform the market, it has great challenges and pressure on the company itself.
Shougang Group: At present, the supply and demand of the steel market are imbalanced, and both domestic and external demand of steel have weakened, while production remains at a high level, resulting in prominent supply and demand contradictions. Shougang currently produces normal and has good operating conditions.
Xintian Steel Group: Since this round of market peaked in early June, the prices of steel futures and spot varieties have hit new lows since the beginning of this year. At present, both ends of steel supply and demand are weakening, the market has entered a pattern of "double weak supply and demand", and steel inventory remains at a high level.Since the mixed reform in March 2019, Xintian Steel's operating situation has continued to improve, but since the end of May this year, the sharp drop in steel prices and the decline in raw fuel prices far less than the decline in steel prices, the loss has occurred, which has led to a sharp decline in the proportion of scrap steel addition, and the daily output of crude steel has dropped by about 3,000 tons.
Hot Question: Faced with such a severe market situation, what strategies and measures do steel companies have to deal with?
Baosteel Co., Ltd.: In recent years, by increasing reform efforts, Baosteel Co., Ltd. has continuously consolidated its core competitiveness, laying a solid foundation for responding to market challenges. In the face of the current situation, we will continue to make efforts from the market, operation and production ends and take positive actions.
Puyang Steel: Based on your post, practice rigorous economics, reduce costs and increase efficiency, and reduce all non-essential expenses. The raw fuel is low in stock and the finished product is negative in stock, close to the market, fast in and out. We must normalize the analysis of large-cycle periods and predict the market, operate according to the market trend, and absolutely not bet on the market.
shan Steel Group: In the second half of the year, we must do a good job in scientific research and analysis to strengthen with "change", build solid comparative advantages, quickly release aggregate efficiency, dig deep into the system's efficiency creation capabilities, make every effort to reduce various inventory, and maximize policy dividends, concentrate on doing our own things well, and strive to fully complete the group's annual task goals.
Angang Group: should take efficiency improvement as the general logic that runs through the overall situation of the company, and quickly change from living a "good life" to "tight life" and "hard life", resolutely be "really dare to think", really dare to do", "really know how to do", and "really capable", and vigorously promote new breakthroughs in key tasks such as cost reduction and efficiency prevention, risk prevention, deepening reform, and industrial transformation, and reverse the passive situation of production and operation as soon as possible.
Taigang Group: should insist on cost reduction throughout the entire production process, strictly follow the lowest cost and best cost. Organize production in principle, form a linkage cost reduction mechanism, and promote all-round, multi-angle and integrated cost reduction. We must be good at touching pain points and leveraging difficulties, resolutely abandon the idea of "indicators to the top and potential tapping", break through habitual thinking, explore new methods and paths to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and ensure greater breakthroughs in cost reduction and efficiency reduction.
Hunan Steel Group: must fully recognize the current situation, and change rapidly in thinking from living a "good life" to "tight life" and "hard life", take decisive and effective measures, strengthen confidence, throw away fantasies, strictly implement, and fight crisis to ensure survival. Effective benefits are the prerequisite for survival. In any case, we must ensure stability in production before iron, adjust the structure after steel, and ensure the group The company's profit level is above the industry's average "lifeline".
Shagang Yongxing: clearly proposes to fully invest and tap potential, and strive to fight the battle to reduce costs and increase potential. The "charge" for comprehensively reducing costs and increasing efficiency has been sounded. We must implement the spirit of the group's semi-annual meeting without fail, establish the idea of living a "tight life", fully mobilize and give full play to the enthusiasm, initiative and creativity of all cadres and employees, and resolutely win this battle to reduce costs and increase potential and increase efficiency.
Angang Group: From a marketing perspective, steel companies should strengthen market development and services externally, strengthen marketing management internally, and improve their ability to resist market risks. Anshan Iron and Steel will thoroughly implement the "7531" strategic goal and Anshan Iron and Steel's "11361" strategic plan, focus on the main line of "intensive, reduced, and smart @customer", and focus on the marketing layout of "Beidou looks at the moon and faces the sea", comprehensively promote the annual construction of customer service and effectively resolve various market risks.
Shougang Group: Shougang Group: Shougang Enterprises must first control production costs, and secondly control risks. At present, while doing a good job in cost control, Shougang tilts resources towards varieties with good efficiency levels to maximize benefits.
xintian Steel Group: Steel enterprises should actively reduce production, reduce costs and increase efficiency. In particular, large steel companies should demonstrate responsibility, take the lead in reducing production and limiting production, adjust maintenance time in a timely manner, and effectively reduce production, thereby reducing iron ore use. Only the excess supply of iron ore can suppress prices, thereby remitting profits for steel companies and gradually achieving supply and demand balance. (My Steel Net)
