Tolerance to the enemy is cruelty to oneself.
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In the past two days, Russia has begun to bomb Ukraine's energy, electricity, communications and other facilities. From military facilities to civilian facilities, Russia has finally upgraded its special military operations - although Russia does not recognize this.
As early as July 17 this year, Medvedev publicly issued a warning that the day when Ukraine bombed the Crimea Bridge was Russia's trial day against Ukraine.
Results On October 8, the second day of Putin's birthday, the Crimea Bridge was blown up (it doesn't matter who blows it anymore). Then Ukraine ushered in a large bombing that began on the 10th. It is said that the bombing range involves 10 cities in Ukraine, and there are still 5 states that have not recovered electricity so far.
This is Russia's revenge. Not only the Crimea Bridge, but also the bombed Nord Stream pipeline and the Russian soldiers chased and ran on the front line.
Russia cannot lose, nor can it bear to lose. so there is only "Tiger! Tiger! Tiger!" (The code of Japan's sneak attack on Pearl Harbor, meaning "offensive, offensive"!) - This big bombing is actually another major strategic adjustment of Russia's special military operation to Ukraine.
Russia has made three adjustments to the military operations against Ukraine. At the beginning of the operation, Russia's strategy was to bomb Ukraine's military facilities, especially the naval and air command system, and the "decapitation operation" that directly attacked Kiev . At the beginning, Putin must have wanted to copy the "blitzkrieg + intimidation war" that worked in Georgia , but Ukraine withstood the pressure.
If we call the above strategy Plan A, then Russia shrinks its front line to capture the four states in Wudong is Plan B. means that Russia cannot annex the entire Ukraine in a short period of time, or it cannot overthrow the Ukrainian government, so it has to settle for the second best to seize the four prefectures in eastern Ukraine. During this period, a fierce battle at the Azov Steel Plant occurred, and Russia paid a considerable price.
Reasonablely, Russia won the battle to capture the four eastern Ukraine, but Ukraine has exploded with great combat effectiveness with the support of the United States and Europe, quickly compressing Russia's frontline. Russia had to throw out Plan C. The so-called C plan is to plan a "referendum" for the four states in Wudong, and to adjust it from military action to political action. Russia wants to use Plan C to consolidate its achievements in this military operation.
However, with Ukraine's counterattack and the international disapproval of the results of the "referendum" led to the failure of Russia's C Plan. In addition, the bombing of the Nord Stream pipeline and the Crimea Bridge made Russia "lost all its self-esteem". Putin finally couldn't bear it anymore and launched the "Plan D." The
D plan is the newly implemented bombing of Ukraine, which actively escalated the intensity of the conflict. The implementation of Plan D is also the formal transformation of Russia and Ukraine from conflict to war.
From A to B, from B to C, and then from C to D. This is a process in which Russia goes from active to passive, and then from passive to active.
Although Russia is constantly adjusting its plans and strategies, it cannot cover up a fact- At the beginning, Putin made a mistake in his judgment on this special military operation.
The mistake was made at three points:
First, it completely overestimated the combat effectiveness of the Russian army. The old tactical style and old conventional military equipment have caused the Russian army to have a generation difference from the world's highest-end tactical style. Putting aside the strategic weapon , the Russian military's military strength is really no longer the second in the world.
Second, it completely underestimates the support of the United States and Europe to Ukraine. Before the operation, Ukraine borrowed US$27 billion. After seven months of war, Ukraine has borrowed US$98 billion, which means that Ukraine has received at least US$70 billion in funding and weapons and equipment support from the United States and Europe. In 2021, Russia's military expenditure was only US$42.1 billion.
Third, Russia's military operations are completely taken for granted. may be considering international political influence, or perhaps he wants to wait for the operation to receive a complete Ukraine. Russia was "too kind" at the beginning and did not attack Ukraine's key facilities other than military facilities, which made Ukraine "defeated but not paralyzed" at the beginning, and lost the opportunity to defeat the enemy with one move.
How will Russia's voluntary escalation of military operations drive the development of the situation? Will it cause spillovers to lead to larger wars? Will Putin's adjustment of strategy at this time bring a turning point in Russia's military operations? Can Ukraine withstand Russia's bombing?
Let's wait for it to change!
The author of this article is the full-time author of the Breaking Wall Investigation Bureau: Guanhai
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