Source: Global Network
Tsai Ing-wen won the "dirty election", and Taiwan faces a more uncertain and risky next four years.
The reason why it is called "dirty" is that Tsai Ing-wen has mastered the resources of the ruling and used various dirty means to deceive Taiwan's public opinion.
What "dirty actions" will Tsai Ing-wen do next?
1
"anti-Chinese card", Tsai Ing-wen will also play very hard.
In the past few months, the Tsai Ing-wen authorities have been shouting "The wolf is coming" to scare the people on the island. Tsai Ing-wen lied that only "resisting China" can "protect Taiwan" and create an atmosphere of "fear of China".
For example, Tsai Ing-wen keeps speaking out about the situation in Hong Kong and instigates the emotions of the Taiwanese people; it is clearly a sabotaging cross-strait exchanges, but it is said that the mainland "suppresses" Taiwan; the strong promotion of the "anti-infiltration method" before the "general election" has all contributed to the terrifying atmosphere on the island.
Do these things every day. Even the most determined person may be bewitched. While chatting and laughing, he can see a giant who does not exist threatening his life.
The people on the island began to divide the boundary. Brother Dao has a Taiwanese friend. Her high school classmates call her a "lack dog" because she was studying in the mainland. In the future, even if she wants to return to Taiwan to work after graduation, she will be subject to various tangible restrictions.
Even Lu Xiulian said that Tsai Ing-wen attracts voters by "If you don't support me in the anti-China period, who can you support?" Is this true democracy? Many people in Taiwan have been kidnapped by the DPP.
Tsai Ing-wen will obviously use this trick to continue kidnapping the people during her new term.
first, continue to promote the passage of various "anti-China" bills.
When the DPP stirred up the "China terror" sentiment on the island, it raised the issue of revising the so-called "Five National Security Laws", "Anti-Infiltration Law", and "CCP Agent Law", which caused panic on the island, and many people said it was green terror.
With the new term, Tsai Ing-wen will most likely only become more obsessed with pushing similar "bills". After these "anti-China" and "anti-China" bills such as
form a system, the chilling effect will appear.
At that time, some media that are considered pro-China dare not speak out again, and those Taiwanese businessmen who are closely linked to the mainland will not dare to mention the "1992 Consensus" and "one country, two systems", etc.
This is exactly what Tsai Ing-wen is thinking about.
Second, "decoupled" from the mainland and continue to build an invisible wall on both sides of the strait.
Some experts say that Tsai Ing-wen's first term has actually started to "decouple" from the mainland.
In politics, it promotes "de-Sinicization" and cultivates "natural independence".
In terms of economy, it has implemented the "new southward policy" and called on mainland Taiwanese businessmen and Taiwanese capital to withdraw from Taiwan.
In terms of personnel exchanges, the DPP authorities have also obstructed cross-strait exchanges in various ways. For example, punishing Taiwanese youths who are employed in the mainland and promoting various land-related bills, which is essentially cutting off cross-strait personnel exchanges, which is also "decoupling".
In these aspects, Tsai Ing-wen will probably only become more serious in the future.
Third, targeted "anti-integration" in response to the cross-strait social integration measures introduced by the mainland.
In recent years, the mainland has successively introduced various policies to benefit Taiwan, providing various conveniences for Taiwanese compatriots to live and work in the mainland.
Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party authorities were very panicked when they saw that the mainland was truly good to the people of Taiwan and quickly said that this was not "benefiting Taiwan", but "benefiting the Chinese people". Taiwanese people should not be fooled. After
, many Taiwanese people were very happy and said they were "very fragrant".
. Faced with the mainland's need to apply for a "Taiwanese Resident Residence Permit " for Taiwanese people, the Taiwan authorities' reaction was to quickly exclaim that they must not apply!
Because once it is done, it may be invaded for privacy and pay more taxes.
Taiwan authorities also threaten that if you hold a mainland residence permit, the rights of these people in Taiwan will be restricted in the future.
I have to say that the Tsai administration, who swung the big stick to its own people, is really a good government that does practical things for the people.
It can be imagined that no matter what policies the mainland will introduce to benefit the Taiwanese people in the future and promote cross-strait social integration, and what the Tsai Ing-wen administration may give to the mainland, I will legislate to block and offset what.
or Tsai Ing-wen can also introduce better measures, but does she have the ability?
2
How far will Tsai Ing-wen go in the direction of "Taiwan independence" in the next four years?
Since taking office in 2016, Tsai Ing-wen has delivered a complete answer to whether she is a "Taiwan independence" element.
When Tsai Ing-wen first came to power, she was unwilling to talk about the "1992 Consensus" and only admitted that there was a "fact of the 1992 Talks", and people felt something was wrong.
Listen to his words and observe his actions, and it was not convenient for us to draw a conclusion immediately. After all, she also said that in the Taiwan Strait, we should "maintain the status quo", which made some people feel optimistic.
However, the result is that the "status status" in Tsai Ing-wen's dictionary is different from what almost everyone else understands.
Later, Tsai Ing-wen's statement began to be mixed with ambiguous and edge-by-side words such as "Taiwan, the Republic of China" and "sovereign state". Until now, we have no doubts about her identity as "Taiwan independence".
But the further Tsai Ing-wen goes, the higher the risk.
Once, if you really touch the red line, Tsai Ing-wen knows what the ending will be. Even if she wants to make a try, the Taiwanese people will not agree.
Secondly, the United States cannot agree.
Although Taiwan and the United States are now in political, military and other aspects, the Trump administration has sold arms to Taiwan four times over the years, and they also pleaded that they would raise the level of director of the US Association for Taiwan, etc., on such major issues, the United States' statement has never deviated from the one-China principle.
comes three times, and the lessons learned from the past must be referred to.
The last time the DPP came to power, it was not without attempts to promote "Taiwan independence". Chen Shui-bian proposed the "one side, one country theory" when he was in office, quickly lost the trust of President Bush and was regarded as a troublemaker by the United States. In the end, the matter was not done, but instead made himself notorious.
At that time, almost all countries in the world believed that "Taiwan independence" was a regional threat. On this issue, mainstream international public opinion stood on the mainland.
The DPP will not not remember this painful memory, so it is unlikely that Tsai Ing-wen will repeat the old path of "two-state theory" or "one side, one country theory".
does not follow the old path, which means a new situation for the mainland.
Before, Chen Shui-bian seemed arrogant and domineering, but in fact he just regarded "Taiwan independence" as a tool to win over votes and manipulate politics. He directly called out "Taiwan independence" and lost international support, and the mainland was easier to deal with.
Tsai Ing-wen’s movements may be more worthy of attention. In recent years, people have found that Tsai Ing-wen is more inclined to be "pragmatic in Taiwan independence". She regards "Taiwan independence" as a long-term work and regards it as a process, "only do not say" or "do more and say less" when promoting it.
In the next four years, Tsai Ing-wen may not move the "Constitution" that recognizes No. 1 Middle School, but she may modify all the legal system under it by cutting sausages to make them more in line with the requirements of an "independent Taiwan".
Are the mainland afraid? Obviously, we have shown full force in the crackdown and containment of "Taiwan independence" over the years.
However, Taiwanese society is actually afraid. In the collective consciousness, they "dare not to be alone" and they are very worried that someone will play too much.
Otherwise, there are some people who are radical and clamoring to be "independent" than Tsai Ing-wen. How come they can't get enough support to choose?
3
In recent years, Tsai Ing-wen claims that Taiwan and the West have completely consistent values. On political and military issues, Tsai flatters the United States very much, and she will definitely become more aggressive in the next four years.
In an interview with the media in 2018, Tsai Ing-wen said, "Many people say that we are other people's pawns, don't forget that we are also chess players."
When Tsai Ing-wen said this, she deliberately paused and gave the camera a meaningful smile.
Tsai Ing-wen, who claimed to be a self-proclaimed chess player, was proud and made several wrong judgments over the years.
First of all, Taiwan needs to choose a side station.
Tsai Ing-wen believes that the current international environment is to be more guarded and restricted against the rising mainland.In such a general environment, Taiwan can only have a chance if it firmly stands in the Western camp.
Second, the US Indo-Pacific strategy needs Taiwan very much. Strategically speaking, Taiwan’s strategic position is very important to restrain China.
Today, the Indo-Pacific strategy is no longer just a military action, it actually also includes economic and other aspects. Both Trump and Abe and said they would launch an infrastructure plan within this framework, and these plans alone are obviously not enough for the United States and Japan.
Tsai Ing-wen is willing to make up for it, and even willing to contribute money and others to work hard in exchange for favor and attention from the United States and Japan. Why not do it for Japan and the United States?
Third, in terms of values, Taiwan needs to move forward.
The current international situation is roughly like this: the West is generally declining, and emerging markets are rising. During the decline, especially after the latest financial crisis, the United States and Europe experienced an identity crisis, and they themselves began to question the capitalist democratic system.
However, Tsai Ing-wen believes that this is Taiwan’s opportunity, so she talks about “democracy and freedom” and says that Taiwan is on the “front line” and plays the role of “beacon”.
What’s funny is that when there are shameless people in Hong Kong who want to follow this “beacon”, they are coldly rejected.
What Tsai Ing-wen didn't say is that even the United States has always had a China in its words, and the United States has always played the edge in the Taiwan Strait. Wanting the United States to show off with the mainland for Taiwan is like a chess piece dreaming of a chess player.
The fulcrum of the Indo-Pacific strategy? Taiwan may be even more delusional. Even if the US official mentioned Taiwan in some reports, looking at the pitiful space, you can measure Taiwan’s position.
This seems to be OK to the Tsai Ing-wen authorities, because it shows a scene that if you are marginalized, it doesn't matter, just draw yourself in the center like me.
As for the Democratic and Freedom Value Alliance, the Tsai administration might as well look at the reports of Western media on democracy on the island. There are many scenes of "parliamentarians" throwing shoes and fighting during the Legislative Yuan meeting. The West often speaks ridicule and ridicule about Taiwan's election.
More look at the self in the eyes of the West. The DPP authorities may be able to put themselves in the right position and not always addicted to the family matters and celebrity gossip on the island.
So, if Tsai Ing-wen really goes too fast and too far, the real chess fingers will be used manually and pull it back in minutes.
What's more, how far can a piece go?
4
There are also a few people who believe that Tsai Ing-wen's second term may be more in the middle than in recent years. Their reason is that in the second term, Tsai Ing-wen will inevitably have the idea of pursuing his historical status, so she will be more pragmatic, and even though she knows that an egg cannot touch the stone, Tsai Ing-wen will not fight head-on.
This kind of expectation looks beautiful.
Even if Tsai Ing-wen's performance has become "better", it is at most a strategy. Her true idea of insisting on being an enemy of the mainland has long been established.
What are our solutions?
In the situation of "I am strong and Taiwan is weak", we actually don't need to deliberately respond or fight back.
For example, Tsai Ing-wen wants to decouple, can she do it?
obviously doesn't work. If mainland Taiwan returns to isolation and cut off all kinds of exchanges, Taiwan Chambers will lose huge benefits and they will not agree.
More Taiwanese people live and work in the mainland than in any previous era.
What's more, if Taiwanese fruits and other products cannot be exported to the mainland, it will be another huge bad news for farmers on the island.
Taiwan’s economy obviously cannot withstand so many shocks.
So all Tsai Ing-wen can do is to restrict social integration between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and not restrict economic exchanges.
From our perspective, in order to peaceful reunification, promoting the integration and development with Taiwan at this stage will still be the main tone. We also don’t want to decouple from Taiwan.
also has to mention the United States. As a disruptor in the Taiwan Strait, it hopes to see some controllable tensions in this region, allowing Taiwan to fully exert its restraint.If a completely severing relationship occurs, it may trigger a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, which is not in line with the US strategic concept.
So, the hook cannot be removed.
So, the best way to counter Tsai Ing-wen's so-called "Tsai Ing-wen" is to use policies to promote larger cross-strait integration and crack Tsai Ing-wen's attempts to isolate.
In another direction, we must be prepared to confront the United States head-on. Now the United States is siegeing mainland China in all directions. In the Taiwan Strait, it dares not let out the big thunder, but it can fire small cannons from time to time. The United States can definitely do it and is doing it.
Some people believe that it is particularly important to note that Taiwan-US military cooperation may escalate to an unexpected level.
For example, one day the US military really docked in Kaohsiung Port, what should we do?
We have already made plans and said that, let the United States taste it.
Special thanks: Director of Shanghai Taiwan Institute Yu Xintian , Researcher of Taiwan Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Jin Yi
Images in this article are from the Internet
Written by/Wangwu Dao
