Dec gold stocks of various brokerages have been launched this week. This time, the 21st Century Capital Research Institute counted 375 gold stocks recommended by 31 brokerage firms. Excluding repeated recommendations, there were 230 individual stocks.
Judging from the performance of the trading days in the previous few December, the performance of many gold stocks can be described as poor.
For example, new stocks recommended by Guolian Securities central control technology, Tianfeng Securities recommended Yunao shares, and Oriental Shenghong recommended by Anxin Securities seemed to have started a downward mode in December.
In addition, some gold stocks gave good results in the trading days before December, and several stocks with larger gains have already made more than 20%.
However, many stocks with large increases seem to have mixed into the well-known hot money , such as Zoomlion Heavyke , Guolian Securities, Shangji CNC, and TCL Technology, which invisibly increases investment risks.
The individual stocks participating in hot money, whether they can eat meat or lose money, depends entirely on their personal investment ability!
Main conclusions:
1. Differentiation of individual stocks: Some gold stocks have started a downward trend, some gold stocks are suspected of well-known hot money entering the market
Judging from the first two trading days of December, many gold stocks have risen by more than 10%. The only one that has fallen by more than 10% is Central Control Technology . It fell sharply by 13.7% in the first two trading days of December, and finally stopped falling by December 3.
(1), new stock central control technology : The pressure of capital outflow increased in December
Guolian Securities said when recommending central control technology that the country promotes Industry 4.0, and the digital transformation of industry is the right time, and domestic substitution is the company's core growth driving force. The company has the largest market share in DCS in the country for nine years, has rich cases in the industrial automation industry, and the actual controller is the industry leader. National policy orientation and enterprise technology leadership are superimposed, and have long-term driving forces such as domestic substitution and manufacturing upgrade concepts, which is worth paying attention to.
However, central control technology , which was listed on Science and Technology Innovation Board last month, has increased its pressure on capital outflows in December, and the stock price may not be too optimistic in the next month.
In fact, in the current window period, there are not many securities companies recommending stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board in gold stocks. Some institutional investors in the market believe that since the widespread acceptance of the Science and Technology Innovation Board has not yet risen and high expectations were placed in the early stage, the risk of pullbacks is relatively high.
. At the current node, it recommends the secondary new stocks that are not part of the Science and Technology Innovation 50. central control technology . Guolian Securities may have less grasp of market sentiment.
(2), 4 gold stocks are suspected to be targeted by hot money
gold stocks Zoomlion Heavy Ke , Guolian Securities, Shangji CNC, and TCL Technology are rumored to be targeted by hot money. These four stocks all topped the Dragon and Tiger List on December 2.
Rumors were made that on that day, the well-known hot money Brother Zhao bought Guolian Securities 58 million, bought Zoomlion Heavyke 68 million, and sold 91 million CNC on computers; Brother Sun bought TCL Technology 180 million; Match Zhang bought TCL Technology 290 million; Fang Xinxia bought TCL Technology 400 million; Little Crocodile bought Zoomlion Heavyke .22 billion. (The speculation is mainly because these well-known hot money has previously made marks for some business departments. In the transaction list, the emergence of relevant business departments will be considered by the market as a hot money.)
As securities stocks are increasingly attracting investors' attention, and the registration system makes the market increasingly emphasize fundamentals, private hot money often chooses some stocks with good fundamentals when choosing targets.
But for individual investors, whether they can eat meat and drink soup by participating in hot stocks depends on their personal investment ability. But what is certain is that under the leadership of hot money, even if the fundamentals of related stocks are good, their investment risks will be increased.
Guolian Securities recommends Zoomlion Heavyke Reasons:
Stimulated by factors such as machinery substitution, replacement cycle, and overseas expansion, the construction machinery industry has shown a continuous prosperity. The company is a leader in the fields of concrete machinery, cranes and tower cranes, and its performance growth rate is higher than the industry average. The company's new businesses include excavators, high-altitude machinery, agricultural machinery, etc., and strong demand is expected to resonate with the release of production capacity. The level of expense control and corporate governance has steadily improved, and the company's profitability has gradually increased.
Reasons for Guangdong Securities to recommend Guolian Securities:
1) Guolian Securities is a local state-owned securities company, focusing on the development of brokerage business, with obvious regional characteristics, and its branch outlets are mainly concentrated in Jiangsu Province. Revenue in 2020Q3 was 1.365 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.01%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 459 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.92%. 2) The company focuses on developing brokerage business, and is the only small and medium-sized brokerage among the seven brokerage firms to carry out fund investment advisory business, and is the first brokerage firm to develop business. 3) Previously, Guolian Securities issued an announcement stating that it was planning to absorb and merge Guojin Securities through share exchange. Guolian's absorption and merger of Guojin was regarded as "snake swallowing elephant", and it was also a reflection of state-owned capital integration of securities companies. However, the merger failed in the end because the parties involved in the transaction failed to reach an agreement on this transfer and some of the core terms of this merger plan.
In fact, the third reason for Guangdong Securities' stock recommendation is not clear. If this article is used as the logic for stock recommendation, it seems that it is necessary to add a sentence "There will still be merger expectations in the future", but Guangdong Securities did not clearly point it out.
Zheshang Securities Reasons for recommending computer CNC:
Company is the future leader in photovoltaic 210 silicon wafers ; non-silicon costs and profitability are aligned with Longi!
1. Profitability: Align with Longi (1) As the scale expands, the difference in silicon material procurement costs and unit labor costs are narrowing; (2) The company's process technology is getting better, and the gap between non-silicon costs and industry leaders is narrowing. 2. Competitive advantages: (1) The company does not have a competitive relationship with downstream battery cell and component customers, and the customers are more friendly. (2) Houlang - The company is a brand new device, compatible with 210/182 large-size silicon wafers, and the 210 silicon wafer production capacity is in the world's leading position; the overall efficiency is slightly higher (friendly companies have old equipment). (3) In the process of silicon rod machining, the company uses its own efficient equipment, and the cost and efficiency are more advantageous than the industry leaders. 3. The market is worried that the competitive landscape of the silicon wafer industry may have an impact next year; Zhejiang Securities believes that high-quality and large-size silicon wafers are still in a state of insufficient supply and next year, and some old production capacity will be eliminated. It is expected that the demand for 210 large-size silicon wafers will increase rapidly next year and the following year. The company's large-size silicon wafers will "overtake" and improve the product structure and increase profitability, and it is expected to become the future leader of 210 large silicon wafers!
Founder Securities , Huaan Securities Reasons for recommending TCL Technology:
Founder Securities Chen Hang believes that TCL Technology ① benefited from the positive market competition landscape of LCD. The LCDTV panel quotation has continued to exceed expectations since it turned higher in June. It is expected that the company's performance will usher in a significant improvement in 20Q4. Looking ahead to next year, due to the withdrawal of overseas production capacity represented by Korean factories, supply and demand are expected to continue to be tight in the first half of 2021, and the certainty and visibility of performance are expected to remain high in the first half of 2021. The acquisition of Samsung Suzhou line further strengthens the company's medium-sized LCD product supply capacity and overall profitability. ② In the medium term, although domestic manufacturers have shown certain willingness to expand production under the high prosperity, the overall production capacity is limited. And as the industry concentration continues to rise, leading manufacturers are actively adjusting their product structure, and their influence on supply, demand and prices is increasing. We are optimistic that the price of medium and long-term LCD products will continue to stabilize at a high level. The company's current stock price valuation is very advantageous. ③ Acquisition of Zhonghuan Group to further strengthen the layout of upstream semiconductor materials and form the company's new main business. Industrial financial investment business also contributes stable investment returns, and the company's overall performance is highly certain.
Chen Hang believes that the stock price catalyst of TCL Technology is: the price trend of LCD panels in 20Q4-21Q2 is better than expected, and the company's quarterly performance further exceeded expectations.
Huaan Securities believes that TCL Technology 1. The performance turning point was established: after the one-time restructuring income, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first three quarters increased by 28.9% year-on-year. Among them, the net profit in the third quarter was 817 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.48%, and the performance in the third quarter after deducting non-operating items increased by 168.13% year-on-year. 2. LCD panel price side: The panel price is strong. Taking the company's largest global shipment market share as an example, the Q3 price rose by more than 50%, reaching US$155 per piece, and the supply and demand relationship in Q4 is still tense, and the price is likely to continue to maintain a high level in the next two years; capacity side: Samsung's Suzhou production line is combined, T7 production capacity is gradually released, and TCL Huaxing's bottom capacity in 2021 increased by 57% year-on-year.Demand side: Overall demand has grown steadily, and supply and demand are tight in the next two years. 3. Korean companies withdrew, the industry's supply structure has improved significantly, and TCL's gross profit is expected to improve significantly. After the withdrawal of Korean companies, the LCD industry gradually shifted to the dominant stage of mainland China, forming a "Temini" pattern of TCL and BOE . Although Korean companies recently issued a statement to postpone the withdrawal of LCD panel production, SDC and LGD are not large in production and mainly supply their own brands. We believe that the impact on the overall supply and demand is limited, and the gross profit of domestic panel leaders is expected to improve significantly in the next two years.
(statistical data ends on December 2, December earnings refer to two-day returns on December 1 and December 2)
2. Gold stocks last month's Dragon and Tiger List data: Frequent customers on the list have started diving
We have counted the gold stocks recommended by securities companies and were on the list in November. As expected, the stock that was on the list the most last month was recommended by Tianfeng Securities.
Overall, stocks that were on the Dragon and Tiger List more times last month also recorded quite good returns.
Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. recommended by Tianfeng Securities rose by 72.10% last month, and Oriental Shenghong recommended by Anxin Securities rose by 63.35% last month; Yongxing Materials, jointly recommended by three brokers, Pacific, Yangtze River and Guojin, rose by 58.58% last month. The excessive increase in
means a large risk of decline, and many hot money is often mixed in the stocks on the Dragon and Tiger List. The three stocks mentioned above all fell to varying degrees in early December. On December 3, Dongfang Shenghong experienced a large decline in volume.
(statistical data ends on December 2, December earnings refer to two-day returns on December 1 and December 2)
Total observation:
December gold stocks: Continuing the style of last month, but the number of chemical and automobile gold stocks in the crowd has decreased.
31 securities companies recommend gold stocks. The most distributed industries are chemical (27), electronics (23), and automobile (16). Compared with the gold stocks last month, the style has not changed much.
But the difference is that the amount of gold shares included in the chemical and automotive industries has decreased. Last month, the most distributed industries in gold stocks were chemical industry (34), electronics (21), and automobiles (19).
After the chemical sector and automobile sector saw a large increase, both sectors fell to varying degrees last month. Among them, the chemical industry retreated in late November, while the automobile industry retreated in mid-November, but then rebounded.
The decline in the popularity of stock recommendation in the industry may mean that some securities companies believe that the relevant sectors have risen a little too much and are cautious.
(statistical data as of December 2, December earnings refer to two-day returns on December 1 and December 2)
stocks: securities companies are crowded with big finance, and jointly recommended the top three are China Ping An , China Pacific Insurance, and Industrial Bank
From the individual stock recommendation list, although the big financial sector has already seen a wave of increase last month, it does not affect the securities companies' recommendations.
Among them, China Ping An has been recommended by 12 securities companies. This recommendation is comparable to previous popular stocks such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye. In November, China Ping An had risen by 15.68%, but brokers believe it has more room for growth. And in the first two trading days of December, China Ping An achieved a 3.13% return.
In addition, China Taiping received recommendations from 11 brokerage firms and Industrial Bank received recommendations from 10 brokerage firms. It can be seen that brokers have strong consensus expectations for big finance.
ranked 4th in Vanke A has received recommendations from 8 securities firms and is the few real estate stocks on the joint recommendation list. Another real estate stock jointly recommended by three brokerages is Jinde Group.
When recommending Vanke A, Yangtze Securities gave three reasons: 1) The company's development business is relatively competitive, regardless of centralized procurement advantages and product premiums. In terms of broad fees alone, Vanke has more than 5% excess cash flow, and its turnover efficiency is also significantly ahead; 2) For the forward-looking layout of sustainable cash flows in property, commerce, logistics and other types, it is close to the ultimate form of the real estate company's business model, and the long-term value of the second curve may exceed development; 3) "relative competitiveness" is the core logic under supply-side optimization. Under the background of leverage reduction, financial stability is given greater consideration weight, and Vanke's "stability" and "efficiency" advantages will gradually be transformed into valuation premium.
China Merchants Securities recommended Jinde Group: In 2016, the company took advantage of the industry's recovery and accelerated turnover, cleared the "burden" and restarted in 2017 to accelerate the pace of expansion, quickly achieved land reserve expansion, and potential profitability was still guaranteed. The current salesable value is abundant and focuses on first- and second-tier cities and strong third-tier cities; in the second half of 2019, the equity of Jinde Commercial Real Estate was increased to 41.29%, and after the increase, it can fully enjoy the growth of Jinde Commercial Real Estate; in addition, the company's financing advantages are relatively significant and relatively outstanding relative valuation advantages, and it also has a high-quality turnover gene. In the next few years, it may become a value leader in "light installation" and change from a "options" target to a flexible target of "options + growth".
(statistical data as of December 2, December earnings refer to two-day returns on December 1 and December 2)
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