directory:
, national steel prices on July 28!
. Price adjustment: 18 steel mills rose! The highest increase is 50!
. Forecast: Will steel prices rise?
. Can iron ore prices continue to rise in the near future? When will the trend usher in a reversal?
. The "danger" and "opportunities" faced by steel companies in the second half of the year
. Lange Research: Facing the global interest rate hike storm, steady growth will continue to increase in the second half of the year
. Steel mills take a heavy blow! rebar has risen by more than 400, returning to 4000! Is it spring to survive the cold winter?
. Supply stabilizes, inventory displaces, consumption rebounds, confidence boosts
. National steel prices on July 28!
Introduction: According to the data information of China Steel Network on July 28, the price of steel is relatively strong today. This period of snail fluctuated sharply, boosting the market mentality, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is still acceptable. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike boots were put into use, and the inventory of five major varieties fell sharply. The market negative news was over, and supply and demand showed positive trends. Today, coal and iron ore futures have exceeded the rise, and the low support for finished materials has gradually strengthened. Considering that downstream buys rise or fall, terminal demand will be released, and steel prices are expected to continue to rise tomorrow.
July 28th building materials prices: relatively strong operation; Today's building materials prices are relatively strong operation, with an amplitude of 20-80. Last night, the Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis point rate hike, which is in line with market expectations and market sentiment has improved. From the supply perspective, blast furnace plants have increased their production cuts, but it will take time to test whether strong expectations can drive real demand to bring about rising steel prices. In the context of rising futures and interest rate hikes in line with expectations, it is expected to rebound in the short term or in a phased manner;
/28/11/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/1/2/2/2/2/2/1/2/2/2/1/2/2/1/2/2/1/2/2/1/2/1/1/2/2/2/1/1/1/2/2/2/1/1/1/1/2/2/2/1/1/1/1/2/2/2/1/1/1/1/1/2/2/2/1/1/1/1/1/2/2/2/1/1/1/1/1/2/2/2/1/1/1/1/1/1/2/2/2/2/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/2/2/2/1/1/1/1/1/1/2/2/2/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/2/2/2/2/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/2/2/2/2/1/1/1/1/1/1/1 Increase; National Hot coils have all risen, with an increase of 20-100. Related futures are now strengthening, merchants are willing to support prices, the market atmosphere is getting better, speculative demand has increased, merchants are now confident in the future market, and it is expected that the market price will be stronger;
July 28 cold rolled coil price: stable and strong; Today, cold rolling nationwide is stable and strong, with a range of 10-100 yuan. The early trading period was red and fluctuated, the market mentality improved, merchants actively shipped, the market atmosphere was still acceptable, customers purchased on demand, overall transactions improved, and short-term price fluctuations were expected;
July 28th medium and thick plate prices: the mainstream is strong; The mainstream of the medium and thick plates in the country is strong, with an adjustment range of 10-60. Spot followed the futures market and rebounded, and the demand for downstream replenishment was released in a concentrated manner. Overall transactions improved in the morning. Merchants took advantage of the trend and actively supported the high price, and chased the rise in the session, but high expectations were still cautious. It is expected to run firmly in the short term;
July 28 Tropical price: the main behavior; Today, the national strip steel is mainly on the top, with a range of 20-100, the futures market fluctuated at a high level. In addition, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates yesterday, negative news has been consumed in advance, and the market atmosphere has improved after the rise. It is still in the off-season market, and the terminal opening project is limited. However, with the increase in production reduction and maintenance, fundamental contradictions tend to ease.Considering the increase in speculative demand, it is expected to be firmly sorted out;
July 28th profile price: narrowly rising; today's model price rose narrowly, with a range of 10-30, blanks rose slightly, futures spirals drove strongly, and the market was willing to rise, but due to the weak demand in the off-season, the increase of is smaller than that in the north, and the shipment situation improved. It is expected that steel prices will remain stable tomorrow. Strong;
July 28 Pipe price: Mainly stable adjustment; Today, the national welded pipe main stable adjustment, with an amplitude of 20-30, the futures spirals rose sharply, and the cost was adjusted wide. After the Fed raised interest rates in the early morning, negative news broke out, futures rose fiercely, and the overall confidence in rising confidence increased. However, the demand for pipes was still average, and the ex-factory prices of pipe factories stabilized, and some were adjusted. Taking it into consideration, it is expected that it is stable and relatively strong.
(China Steel Network)
. Price adjustment: 18 steel mills rose! The highest increase is 50!
According to data from China Steel Network Information Research Institute, , a total of 21 steel mills adjusted their prices today, of which : increased by 18 companies, accounting for 85.7%, with a price adjustment of 10-50 yuan/ton, and has the highest increase of Shougang Changzhi Building Materials; stable 3 companies, accounting for 14.3%. specific price adjustment details are as follows:
Steel mill price adjustment
Today, a total of 8 steel mills have been re-regulated and released, of which:
has been increased by 7 companies, accounting for 87.5%, with a price adjustment range of 10-50 yuan/ton.
is stable, accounting for 12.5%.
Today, 13 steel mills have been re-registered in plate, model and pipe. Among them:
has been increased by 11 companies, accounting for 84.6%, with a price adjustment range of 10-50 yuan/ton.
stable 2 companies, accounting for 15.4%.
Today's steel mill brief analysis
Steel futures market price
On July 28, the domestic steel market rose across the board, and the ex-factory price of Tangshan Qian'anpu square billets rose by 80 yuan/ton. The spot market price rose slightly in the morning session today, and the futures market continued to rise in the afternoon. The spot market rose widened, and the transaction at a high level was average after the rise.
html On the 228th, the main force of the futures spiral rose strongly, with a closing price of 4058 up 4.45%. DIF and DEA both went upwards, and the RSI three-line indicator was at 45-72, breaking above the middle track of the Bollinger band.
htmlOn the 228th, 17 steel mills raised the ex-factory price of construction steel 10-100 yuan/ton.
market price of four major varieties of steel
Construction steel: On July 28, the average price of 20mm three-level seismic rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 4,150 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. This week, rebar production rebounded slightly, inventory continued to decline sharply, apparent consumption rose, and overall improvement. In the short term, as supply continues to remain low, coupled with the marginal improvement of demand. Short-term supply and demand fundamentals improve.
Hot Rolled Coil: On July 28, the average price of 4.75mm hot rolled Coil in 24 major cities across the country was 3,957 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Overall, the Fed's interest rate hike was implemented as scheduled. Judging from the speeches of the Fed Chairman, the pace of interest rate hikes may slow down in the later period. The policy tendency is not more hawkish, but has slightly turned into dovish.From the perspective of domestic industry, the supply of long materials has contracted rapidly and large, and the production of boards has contracted slowly. In terms of inventory, long materials have been continuously declining, and the increase in boards has also narrowed. Demand shows signs of recovery and over-trading in the early stage. Demand declines are expected, and raw materials continue to run strongly. The finished materials are passively followed but the increase is weaker than raw materials. short-term price may continue to rise , but it is still necessary to pay attention to the fact that steel mills have expanded their profits, and the enthusiasm and trends of resumption of production may bring about a rebound in supply. So whether supply and demand can continue to match.
cold rolled plate rolls: On July 28, the average price of 1.0mm cold rolls in 24 major cities across the country was 4435 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. As the end of the month approaches, in order to alleviate the dual pressures of capital and inventory, spot transactions have improved slightly, but the overall situation is still weak. In terms of inventory, according to the latest statistics of Mysteel, the inventory of cold-rolled steel factory is 397,900 tons, a decrease of 12,900 tons on the weekly basis, and the social inventory is 1.397,900 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons on the weekly basis, and the total inventory is 1.795,800 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons on the month-on-month basis, and the factory warehouse has decreased, while the social warehouse continues to increase, and the inventory pressure is still there.
Medium and thick plate: On July 28, the average price of 20mm general boards in 24 major cities across the country was 4,236 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply of medium and thick plates is still at a high level, but the inventory in the distribution market is on a downward trend overall, and spot liquidity has improved. In the downstream, with the upward trend in the futures and the shrinking price difference of varieties, terminals have begun to enter the market to purchase, and it is expected that the short-term demand will increase.
raw fuel market price
Imported ore: On July 28, the spot market price of imported iron ore in Shandong region steadily rose, and the market trading sentiment is still acceptable. As of press time, Shandong has learned that some transactions are: Qingdao Port : PB powder 772, 773, 775, 785 yuan/ton, 860, 870 yuan/ton; Rizhao Port PB powder 772, 775 yuan/ton, and Newman powder 780 yuan/ton.
Coke: Mainstream steel mills have lowered the purchase price of coke, with an adjustment range of 200-240 yuan/ton. The fifth round of coke landing was implemented, and the cumulative decline was 1,000-1,220 yuan/ton ; After five rounds of price adjustment, coke companies are mostly in a loss state, with weak production enthusiasm and low operating rate. All coke companies have different production restrictions, with production restrictions mostly 30%-50%. The supply of coke is reduced, and the downstream demand for coke is weak. Some coke companies have slowed down and inventory has accumulated slightly. Some coke companies have serious inventory accumulation and inventory pressure is relatively high. Most of the downstream steel mills are on the verge of profit and loss, and some are still losing money. The start of construction is average, and the overall demand is weak. The procurement rhythm is more controlled. The suspension of production restrictions on blast furnaces in steel mills has not eased. The urgent need continues to be under pressure, and the intention to reduce raw materials is strong.
Scrap steel: On July 28, the average price of scrap steel in 45 major markets across the country was 2362 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Specifically, today's snails became popular, with steel billets following the rise of 70-80 yuan/ton, market confidence boosted, merchants' bullish sentiment became stronger, and the psychology of cherishing goods was intensified. Some sites continued to raise the price and absorb goods to fill in inventory. At present, the scrap steel market is still in a situation where there is less shipment of high-priced resources and limited circulation of low-priced resources. However, due to the sharp decline in the arrival of steel mills (SG was only 2,800 tons of unloading today), some steel mills that were relatively low in inventory and were suspended in the early stage began to raise prices to replenish warehouses, and the demand for scrap steel has been released, showing a pattern of slightly weaker supply than demand, which is beneficial to scrap steel. In addition, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike has been implemented, and steel mills and base operations are still cautious, and the room for scrap steel may be limited.
scrap steel price adjustment information
My Steel Network News: According to my Steel APP, on July 28, as of press time, a total of 67 steel mills raised the purchase price of scrap steel.
▎North China Region
July 29 [Hebei Xingtai Delong] Scrap steel purchase price execution: heavy waste 3-6: 2610, heavy waste 3 category 2665, heavy waste 5 category 2745, heavy waste 6 Category 2775, heavy scrap 7 category 2800, automobile beam 2745, steel bar block 2775, side wire block/diode block 1760*700:2665, flower iron block 2790, silicon steel sheet block 2665, fine re-material 2755, fine weight 1 thickness 2820, fine weight 2845, fine weight 3 category 2875, steel bar head 2800, fine heavy scrap 2790, fine heavy scrap 1 category 2820, fine heavy scrap 2845, train accessories 2845, horseshoe 2765, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
/29 [Hongxing, Qinhuangdao, Hebei] up to 40 , after adjustment: fine steel 2820, high-quality steel 2800, heavy waste A 2730, heavy waste B 2660, silicon steel sheet 2630, triangle, silicon steel sheet 2630, melon seed material, cold plate crusher B 2630, cold plate crusher A 2650, silicon steel sheet crusher 2630-2480, reinforced bar block 2450, flower iron block 2450, general sales second level 2250-2300, general sales first level 2350-2370, small steel shavings 2420-2440, large steel shavings 2500-2520, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
/28 [Hongxing, Qinhuangdao, Hebei] increased by 30 , execution reference price: fine steel 2780 high-quality steel 2760, heavy waste A2690, heavy waste B2620 , Silicon steel sheet 2590, triangular, silicon steel sheet 2590, melon seed material and cold plate crusher B2590, cold plate crusher A2610, silicon steel sheet crusher 2590-2440, steel bar pressing 2410, flower iron pressing 2410; general sales second-level 2210-2260, general sales first-level 2310~2330, small steel shavings 2380-2400, large steel shavings 2460-2480, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
-29 [Anfeng, Qinhuangdao, Hebei] is increased by 40, after adjustment: round steel head, rail head over 43 kg, 20mm thick plate scraps, four-thick bean whipping 2850 , mold steel, large-flange sheet, 50-thick heavy duty 2830, large channel steel (pure), large H steel , train beam (pure) 2730, tower crane beam 2630, 2 thick horse tellurium iron 2730, rust-free small stator rotor 2550 yuan, rust-free large stator 2700, cold plate small material 2670, triangular silicon steel sheet 2670, two thick iron beans 2790, steel bar head quality 2850, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
-28 [Anfeng, Qinhuangdao, Hebei] up to 20-40 , after adjustment: round steel head, rail head over 43 kg, 20mm thick plate lower leg Material, four-thick beans 2810, mold steel, large flange sheet, 50-thick heavy duty 2790, large channel steel (pure), large H-shaped steel, train beam (pure) 2690, tower crane beam 2590, 2-thick horse tellurium iron 2690, rustless small stator rotor 2510 yuan, rust-free large stator 2660, cold plate small material 2610, triangular silicon steel sheet 2630, two-thick iron bean 2750, steel bar head quality 2810, excluding tax.
July 29 [Long'an, Qinhuangdao, Hebei] is increased by 30 , after adjustment: track rail, round steel head, blank head, mold steel, train wheel, thick edge corner, flange 2830, heavy scrap 2770-2810, tower crane iron 2630, horseshoe iron 2730-2780, 20 thick I-shaped steel 2800, pure I-shaped steel 15 thick 2750-2790, I-shaped steel 10 thick 2680, short ruler channel steel small material 2750-2770, lead screw 2780-2790, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Long'an, Qinhuangdao, Hebei] is increased by 20 , after adjustment: track rail, round steel head, blank head, mold steel, train wheel, thick edge corner, flange 2800, heavy scrap 2740-2780, tower crane iron 2600, horseshoe iron 2700-2750, 20 thick I-shaped steel 2770, pure I-shaped steel 15 thick 2720-2760, I-shaped steel 10 thick 2650, short ruler channel steel small material 2720-2740, lead screw 2750-2760, unit: yuan/ton.
July 29 [Old East China Sea in Tangshan, Hebei] is raised by 40 , and the price policy remains unchanged. High-quality A2780, high-quality B2750, high-quality C2720, heavy A2690, weight B2650, weight C2610, punching sheet small material 2650, 08 aluminum small material 2510, short ruler material 2570, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Old East China Sea in Tangshan, Hebei] is increased by 30 , high-quality A2740, high-quality B2710, high-quality C2680, heavy A2650, weight B2610, weight C2570, punching sheet small material 2610, 08 aluminum small material 2470, short ruler material 2530, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Hebei Tangshan Yangang] part is increased by 80 : high-quality 2825, weight A2790, weight B2690, medium A2750, medium B2650, high-quality cast iron 2670, ordinary cast iron 2470, large-piece shear 2770, furnace material 2720, furnace material 2700, furnace material 32600, furnace material 41210, first-level shear 2720, second-level shear 2600, third-level shear 1210, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Qian'an Jiujiang, Tangshan, Hebei] T-level price is raised by 30, and other material types are raised by 50 , execution price: more than six thick beans to settle the beans 2775, first-level checkout price 2745, flower iron briquet checkout price 2695, steel bar head checkout price 2720, horseshoe checkout price 2650, door cutting material checkout price 2655, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton
July 28 (second time) [Hebei Tangshan Donghai Special Steel] 20 more, has been increased by 40 . After adjustment: weight B2710, weight A2750, high-quality steel 2780, high-quality steel 2840, steel bar block 2760, flower iron block 2790, steel bar cutter 2840, light and thin materials, explosives, heavy penalties for adulteration, rejection with grease, stop collection of 4 thicker than 4, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Hebei Tangshan Delong] up to 50 : Special grade scrap steel 2854, first grade scrap steel 2799, fine heavy scrap steel 2718, reinforcement block 2708, DA grade 2708, B grade 2763, T grade 2818, mold steel 808, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Jinzhou, Yutian, Tangshan, Hebei] is increased by 50 , execution price: 1-2 thick 2630, 3-5 thick 2730, 6 thick 2760, 8 thick 2780, steel head 2780, steel bar block 2750, new cold plate small material 2690, new galvanized small material 2690, 08 aluminum loose flakes 2610, special crushing material 2830, first-class crushing material 2780, pig iron radiator 2690, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
2 July 28th [Hebei Tangdonghua Steel, Chunxing Special Steel] Heavy A is increased by 40, executing 2710 yuan, high-quality up to 120 yuan, and other materials are priced based on the time of entry.
July 28 [ Tangshan, Hebei] up to 40 : mold steel 2920, flange sheet 2920, large rotor bow board 2850, high-quality first-class 2920, weight A2850, high-quality cast iron 2640, steel plate roller and shear material 2890, steel sheet material first-class 2920, steel bar cutting 2890, steel bar block 2770, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Jinxicheng Mine, Tangshan, Hebei] scrap steel is opened and collected, execution price: high-quality scrap steel beans 2820, high-quality scrap steel punching sheet 2820, high-quality scrap steel quality 2820, steel sheet first grade 2811, steel sheet second grade 2802, steel sheet third grade 2792, steel sheet fourth grade 2783, heavy waste first grade 2774, heavy waste second grade 2765, heavy waste third grade 2747, heavy waste fourth grade 2719, heavy waste fifth grade 2701, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
/28 [Hebei Qinhuangdao Baigong Steel] is increased by 50 , after adjustment: ordinary scrap steel A 2860, eight thick, ordinary scrap steel B 2780, four thick, special crushing material 2770, no galvanized within 20 cm thick, first-level punching parts 2750, more than two thick, first-level punching 2910 thickness, second-level punching 2860 thickness, first-level punching 2880 brand new six-thickness, steel bar cut head 2970, iron pin 2430, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Hebei Shijiazhuang Aosen] is increased by 70-100 : Flower iron block first-level 2750, flower iron block second-level 2600, steel bar block 2730, weight A15 thick 2780, weight A10 thick 2760, weight A6 thick 2740, weight B15 thick 2780, weight B10 thick 2760, weight C second-level 2230, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Hebei Handan Xinhui] is increased by 50 , execution price: steel bar head 2670, general waste 2650, medium waste 2620, new small material 2590, small waste 2570, rack pipe 570, engine body 2520, small steel planing chip 2390; 08 aluminum loose flake 2510, crushing first level 2630, crushing second level 2600, crushing third level 2480, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Hebei Cangzhou Canggang Mitsubishi] galvanized large tiles are increased by 50 , and the execution price is 2,400 yuan/ton.
July 28 [Hebei Cangzhou Dalipu] scrap steel purchase price execution: 4 thick 2710, 2-4 thick medium 2610, 1-2 thick general material 2460, 1-2 thick 2315, 2880 steel bar cutter head, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Zhongsheng, Linfen, Shanxi] increased by 30 , execution price: special grade 15 thickness or more 2650, first grade material 2620, second grade material 6 thickness or more 2560, first grade steel bar head first grade 2580, all color scrap material 10 thickness or more 2670, pure steel bar block 2520, small steel bar head 2610, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Shanxi Xintai Steel] is increased by 50 , execution price: Heavy A2610, B2580, C2550, steel head A2640, steel head B2540, rail 2620, steel plate scrap material 2610, high-quality scrap steel 2600 for dismantling, steel bar block B2550, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 29 [Inner Mongolia Baoxin Special Steel] Price is now implemented: fine furnace material 2840, 14 pure steel bar cut 2790, special first grade 2790, special second grade 2740, Class A heavy waste 2670; 10 thick new steel plate undercut material 2840, 6 thick steel plate undercut material 2790, 14 upper steel head specification 50, 6-12 steel bar wire head 2690, tower crane mixed assembly 2640 excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Hangfeng Special Steel, Fengzhen, Inner Mongolia] is increased by 30 , after adjustment: heavy scrap 8 or more, shear material first level 2390, required 5-6 thick, shear material second level 2310 requires 3-4 thick, steel bar block 2360, wire and keel block 1930, machine pig iron 2330, radiator 2280, iron chips are given as price, wire rope 1880. The front and rear axles of the car are 2380, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 29 [Tianjin Ronggang] up to 30 : steel sheet material second grade 2800, steel sheet material third grade 2780, weight A2740, weight B2680, level 3 crushed shear scrap steel 2450, color steel tile loose flakes 2230, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Tianjin Ronggang] New material-type color steel tile flakes: steel sheet second grade 2770, steel sheet third grade 2750, weight A2710, weight B2650, level 3 crushed shear scrap steel 2420, color steel tile flakes 2200, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 29 [Tianjin Tiangang United] scrap steel price has been increased , execution price: 1. Rebar block: 2760; 2. Flower iron block: 2 thick or more without galvanized 720; 3. Side wire block: 1 thick or more without galvanized 2720; 4. Packing belt block: 1 thick or more without galvanized 2720. Excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
▎East China Region
July 29th [Jiangsu Wuxi New Three Continents] increased by 80-90, the latest execution price: steel plate above 10 3070, mold steel 3010, horseshoe 2960-3010, heavy waste 6 thickness 2900-2960, steel bar cut head 3070, 13% tax included.
July 29 [Jiangyin Xicheng Steel] is raised by 50 , the latest execution price: punching silicon steel sheet 2620, heavy waste 2670, medium waste 2620, ordinary furnace material 2570, small waste furnace material 2240-2440, steel shavings 2510, CNC shavings 2410, ordinary shavings 2360, shavings 2310, shavings 2260, tax excluding.
July 29 [Xingda, Jiangsu Xuzhou] part is increased by 60-90 . After adjustment: fine furnace material 2650-2690, cold plate tiles 2770, general shavings 2410, steel shavings 2550, punching material 2880-2940, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
-29 [Jiangsu Xuzhou Jinhong Steel] (specifically depends on the time of vehicle entry into the factory) All material types are uniformly increased by 50, after adjustment: heavy scrap 2790, steel head 2730-2790, shear material 2490-2690, frame crushing 2740, color tiles crushing 2440, steel planing 2550-2650, general chip 2470-2530, iron chip pressing cake 2530, filament site 2290, filament factory 2350, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 29 (second time) [Jiangsu Lianyungang Yaxin] increased by another 40, cumulatively increased by 70 , after adjustment, the execution price: 1. Steel sheet material, mold steel 2750; 2. 12 mm thick high-quality heavy waste A2720; 3. 6 mm thick heavy waste B2630, 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2500-2530. Rejected below 3 mm. Specifications: 50X50. Unit: Yuan/ton, excluding tax.
July 28 [Jiangsu Lianyungang Yaxin] increased by 30 , after adjustment, the execution price: 1. Steel sheet material, mold steel 2680; 2. 12 mm thick high-quality heavy waste A2650; 3. 6 mm thick heavy waste B2560, 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2430-2460. Rejected below 3 mm. Specifications: 50X50. Unit: Yuan/ton, excluding tax.
July 28 [Jiangsu Lianyungang Ganyu Huaxin Waste Material Recycling Co., Ltd. (Yinxin Steel)] increased by 80 , after adjustment execution price: fine furnace material (new steel sheet material, mold steel, etc.) 2640-2730, heavy waste 2380-2550, medium waste 2300, silicon steel sheets stopped collecting, crushed material stopped collecting, bean rinsing 1, steel bar cutting head stopped collecting, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 (second time) [Xingxin, Lianyungang, Jiangsu] increased by another 30, cumulatively increased by 80 . After adjustment, the strike price: steel plate molds are up to 2680, heavy wastes above 10 thicknesses are up to 2650, high-quality heavy wastes above 8 thicknesses are up to 2610, high-quality heavy wastes above 6 thicknesses are up to 2580, 4 thicker heavy wastes are up to 2480, and 3 thicker new wastes are up to 2380, excluding taxes, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Jiangsu Yangzhou China Airlines] is increased by 100 . After adjustment: new steel sheet material 2640, excellent weight 2610, horseshoe 2600, steel bar head 2610, pig iron 2500-2550, heavy waste 2500-2550, fine furnace material 2420-2460, wire rope 2000, crushed steel shavings 2350-2400, crushed CNC shavings 2210-2280, crushed ordinary shavings 2160-2210, excluding tax.
July 28 [Jiangsu Yangzhou Qinyou] is increased by 50 . After adjustment, the execution price is: steel bar pellets, punches 2750, steel sheet material 12750, mold steel 2750, heavy scrap 22680, machine pig iron 2650, silicon steel sheet 2670, steam cutting material 2700, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Jiangsu Zhenjiang Hongtai] increased by 50 , after adjustment execution price: new steel sheet material 2590, high-weight, steel head 2560, horseshoe 2520, steel bar block 2490, cold rolling, hot rolling, and punching 2500, silicon steel sheet 2450, heavy waste 2500, crushing material 2210-2450, shearing material 2360-2390, steel shavings 2090-2140, tax excluding.
2 July 28th [Jiangsu Xugang Group] is increased by 50, after adjustment: high-quality steel plate 2790, steel sheet material 1#2740, fine furnace material 1#2770, furnace material 1#2650, high-quality heavy waste 1#2770, heavy waste 2670, hub 2500, steel bar block 2590, steel plate block 1#2640, steel bar cut 1#2760, roller sheared steel bar cut 2680 (stop harvesting of crushed raw materials).
July 28 [Jiangyin China Resources Steel Made] Scrap steel adjusted execution price: steel sheet material 2940, new steel sheet material 2990, mechanical pig iron 2860, steel bar cut 2940, furnace 2870, scrap cut 2790, small scrap 2620, unified waste 2430, crushing material 2810, crushing material 2760, 13% tax included.
2 July 28th from 16:30 (second time) [Shandong King] 2 is raised by 30-60, cumulatively increased by 80-110 : high-quality high-weight 2720, high-quality heavy-duty 2720, high-quality heavy-duty 2700, heavy-duty 2670, high-quality first-level 2640, I-level 2640, II-level 2570, light-weight 2400, flange chips 2440, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [ Shandong Shiheng Special Steel ] increased by 50 , specific price: heavy duty 2740, steel bar head 2820, industrial scrap material 2870, thin flower material 2940, pipe head material 2960, steel bar block 2760, special crushing material 2810, containing 3% VAT, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [ Shandong Taishan Steel ] up-regulated : Fine furnace material 2870, heavy waste 2870, heavy duty I-A2870, heavy duty II-A2850, heavy duty I-A2820, industrial waste material 2770, heavy duty I-B2790, heavy duty I-B2700, medium-sized 2590, lightweight material Ⅰ2480, lightweight material II2360, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Shandong Dezhou Jinguan (Lihui) ] up to 30 , after adjustment, new sheet material is more than 6mm 2710, steel bar cut 2760, heavy waste 5-6 thick 2690, medium waste 3-4 thick 2640-2670, shock absorbing plate 2660, scissors and agricultural iron 2490-2580, iron filings 2350, machine iron 2460, first-class crushing material 2660, second-class crushing material 2410, excluding tax. Unit: RMB/ton.
July 28 [Shandong Hongma Engineering Machinery] Scrap steel purchase execution price: scrap steel 3030, depending on the specific price, the steel bar pelletization requirements are within ten cm, Q235Q345 steel plate requires within 30 cm, and the above tax includes the factory price, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Shandong Laigang Yongfeng] Scrap steel purchase notice: Qihe Yongfeng steel head 2825, 2-4 block 2780, first-level crushing material 2655, and second-level crushing material 2610 are charged, excluding tax. Unit: RMB/ton.
July 29 [Fujian Yixin] increased by 50 : The price of the furnace material with tax is 2900, the price of the refined material with tax is 3030, the price of the punch with tax is 2980, the price of the forging material with tax is 2920, and the unit of the : yuan/ton .
July 29 [Fujian Xinwuhang] All scrap steel unified up to 50 .
-28 [Fujian Xinwuhang] All scrap steel unified 50 .
July 28 [Fujian Qingtuo] scrap steel 40 , the price list shall prevail.
July 28 [Fujian Sangang] crushing material three grades of tax-inclusive price 1 100 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 4 2 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 3 4 2 1 1 1 3 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 3 , unit: yuan/ton.
July 28th from 18:00 [Fujian Dadonghai] 2 scrap steel purchase price increased by 50 , unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Fujian Sanbao] increased by 100 : Special grade 1 2680, first grade 2590-2650, second grade 2470-2560, third grade 2240-2390, fourth grade material 1740-2140, excluding tax.
July 28 [Fujian Rongxing Special Steel] increased by 50-90 : heavy waste and medium waste are stopped, cut one 2350, cut two 2300, light and thin materials 2020, cut one 2130, break one 2290, break two 2240, CNC pin 2270, steel pin 2270, shaving briquet 2240, break two 2170, tax excluding.
▎Central China Region
-29 [Hubei Daye Huaxin] up to 30 , after adjustment: first-level heavy waste 2780, second-level heavy waste 2730, third-level heavy waste 2680, first-level heavy waste 12 thick 2740, second-level 8 thick 2690, third-level heavy waste 2640, mechanical pig iron 2640, steel bar cut head 2800, crushing material crushing material first-level punch second-level punch stop collection, steel bar 2520, forging material 2520, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 29 [Henan Minyuan Steel] up to 50 : Factory scrap 2760-2830, silicon steel sheet 2580, thin sheet scrap steel 2620, special material 2830, horseshoe 2730, refined scrap steel 2610, heavy scrap steel 2690-2810, unified scrap steel 2430-2560, bean whipping 2760-2830, steel bar cut head 2830, steel head 2710-2810, steel bar block 2660, raw brown material 2280, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 29 [Henan Jiyuan Steel] increased by 100 : Special first-class scrap steel is 16 thick or more 3120, special second-class scrap steel is 12 thick or more 3080, heavy first-class 10 thick or more 3050, heavy second-class 8 thick or more 3020, heavy third-class 6 thick or more 2990, medium-sized 3 thick or more 2850, including 13% VAT acceptance price, unit: yuan/ton.
July 29 [Henan Fuhua Steel] increased by 100 , execution price: new steel sheet material 2660, steel head 2660, heavy scrap 1 2630, heavy scrap 2 2580, shear material first level 2530, shear material second level 2410, pig iron parts first level 2580, iron pin first level 2280, long sales 2210, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Henan Fuhua Steel] increased by 100 , execution price: new steel sheet material 2560, steel head 2560, heavy scrap 1 2530, heavy scrap 2 2480, shear material first level 2430, shear material second level 2310, pig iron parts first level 2480, iron pin first level 2180, long sales 2110, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Henan Anyang Yaxin] scrap steel increased the execution price after , the latest: steel plate is more than 10 thick, 2770, 6 thick, 2720; machine pig iron 2570; steel bar cut head 2780; special grade 16 thick, 2750, heavy A10 thick, 2720, heavy B6 thick, 2670, flower iron wool material 2590.
2 July 28th [Henan Qinyang Hongda Steel Group] is increased by 50 , execution price: New steel sheet material is 6 thick and above 2760, 3-5 thick and above 2710, heavy scrap 8 thick and above 2760 heavy scrap 6-8 thick 2710 first-class material 2660 second-class material 2580 third-class material 2500 iron sheet material 2400 first-class pig iron steel 2710 second-class pig iron steel parts 2660 crushed pin 2490 long-term sales 2420, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Hunan Cold Steel] 2 Scrap steel of various varieties up to 30 , unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Hunan Lianggang] All scrap steel varieties Upgrade 30 , unit: yuan/ton.
▎South China Region
July 28th [Guangdong Shaogang] industrial pressure class is increased by 30, and other material types are increased by 50 , unit: yuan/ton .
July 28 [Guangdong Heyuan East Guangdong] Scrap steel purchase price increased by 50 : heavy waste 2530 yuan, cutting material 2500 yuan, excluding tax.
July 28 [Guangdong Heyuan Longchuan Hanghui Steel Industry] is increased by 30 : pig iron heavy scrap 2560-2590, industrial punching scrap 2540-2570, air cutting material 2530-2560. Tax excluded, please note that it is prohibited to carry seals and other dangerous goods.
July 28 [Guangdong Jieyang Guoxin] increased by 50 : 7 cm steel bar cutting pellets 2760 yuan/ton (more than 10 cm), mold 2760 yuan/ton (within 80 cm), injection molding machine thick drag sheet 2740 yuan/ton (within 80 cm), pig iron 2730 yuan/ton, pure steel bar wrap 2730 yuan/ton, cutting material above 6 cm thick and cutting material 2700 (within 50 cm), cutting material above 3 cm thick and cutting material 2580 (within 50 cm), tax excluding.
July 28 [Guangdong Shaoguan Yueshao] increased by 70 : Rebar cutting and pelleting stops, heavy waste 2630, new corner 2660, pig iron 2630, division 2550-2600, industrial crushed material 2550-2600, thick shearing material 2500, cutting material 12450, cutting 2-2300, cutting 3 stops, tinplate 2220-2300, granules 1960-2200, tax excluding.
July 28 [Guangdong Jinshenglan] increased by 50-70: Rebar granules 2820, pure steel bar head 2760, steel bar briquette stops collection, All kinds of scraps are 2740, forging material is 2740, excellent heavy scrap steel is 2740, heavy scrap one is 2700-2720, heavy scrap two is 2570-2620 shearing material 2360-2410, punch 2700, all kinds of car materials 2600-2650 pig iron 2640-2690, steel shavings and CNC 2310-2360, ordinary shavings and debris are stopped, excluding tax.
July 28 (second time) [Guangdong Jiangmen Baofeng] increased by another 30, cumulatively increased by 80 ml3: high weight, steel head 2680, pure steel bar pressure 2680, messy steel bar 2640-2670 heavy scrap 2650, hard steel and pig iron 2650, cold rolled punch 2630-2660, cold rolled punch 2610-2630, medium shear 2590, first-class steel chip 2360, ordinary grater 2260-2320, regular material 2160-2260, tax excluding.
July 29 [Guangxi Wuzhou Yima] up to 50 : reinforced bar granules 2720; new steel sheet material 2720; mold steel 2720; hot rolled punch, cold rolled punch, automobile punch sheet 2700; machine pig iron 2680; automobile wheel hub 2680; car front and rear axles 2670; hot and cold rolled punch sheet 2660; silicon steel sheet 2700; air cutting material 2650; shear material 2620; old flange 2680; tax excluding, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Guilin Pinggang, Guangxi] 2 scrap steel 50 , the price list shall prevail.
July 28 (three times) [Guangxi Guixin] scrap steel is raised by another 30, cumulatively increased by 100 , heavy waste 2650 (price adjustment), excluding tax, the specific price shall prevail.
July 28 (three times) [Guangxi Hezhou Special Steel] and then increased by 40, cumulatively increased by 120 : excellent weight 2640, cast iron hard steel 2640, mold scrap material 2640, steel head 2640, heavy scrap thick shear 2640 medium thick material 2610, medium shear 2560, thin shear stop collecting, punching piece 2580, crushed material 2580, gravel 2230-2310, regular material stop collecting, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
8 (three times) [Wuzhou Yongda, Guangxi] is raised by another 30, cumulatively increased by 110 : hot and cold plate crusher 2590, industrial pure crusher 2560, steel bar pressure 2620, first-level pure pressure 2600, second-level block 2540, third-level block 2460, shearing material impurity 2240, high-carbon steel 2670, heavy scrap steel 2620, first-level cutter 2590, second-level cutter 2530, third-level cutter 2380, crushing material with a specific gravity of 1.5 is 2470, excluding tax.
▎Southwest Region
July 28 [Chongqing Changshou Yonghang Steel] up to 30 : 1. More than 8 heavy scrap. Rebar heads 2770; 2. (6-8) Thick shear material 2720; 3. (4-6) Thick shear material 2620-2670; 4. (2-3) Thick shear material 2500-2550. Gross material: 2670 trough angle, 2670 bridge formwork, 2540 factory goods, 2360 medium and upper medium, 2290 medium and 2490 car chips. Note: No chunks that cannot be seen through will be collected, and no chunks of car with oil will be accepted. Plastic bags, floor ash, seals, tires, flammable and explosive dangerous goods in the goods are strictly prohibited and punished severely once discovered.
July 28 [Chongqing Zuhang Steel Company] upwards 30 : (6-8 thick) 2680-2730, (4-6 thick) 2630-2680, (2-3 thick) 2520-2570, front and rear axles of the large car. The engine has been removed, the car shell is about 2180, medium-middle-upper-market 2270-2320, can-color steel tiles 1800-1900 car chips 2470. Note: No chunks that cannot be seen through will be collected, and no car chips with oil will be accepted. It is strictly forbidden to impose severe penalties on seals, tires, flammable and explosive dangerous goods when found.
▎Northeast Region
July 29 [Jilin Jilin Steel] Scrap steel price: 4-6 thickness 2470-2500, 3-5 thickness 2420-2450, 2-4 thickness 2350-2380, 1-3 thickness 2270-2300, 0.5-2 thickness 2180-2200, pig iron steel parts 2400-2450, steel bar block 2450, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 29 [Liaoning Fushun New Steel] is increased by 80 : Recover material delivery, thickness ≥ 8mm and thickness ≥ 12mm, without tax price 2733, thickness ≥ 12mm, without tax price 2703, thickness ≥ 8mm, without tax price 2663, thickness ≥ 6mm, without tax price 2603, rebar head without tax price 2603, rebar head without tax price 2733.
/29 [Liaoning Anshan Yuanxin] Execution price: Shearing material 0.5-1 thickness 2100-2200, 1-2 thickness 2270-2320, (pure) 6-8 thickness 2520-2550, (pure) 4-6 thickness 2480-2510, (pure) 3-5 thickness 2410-2450, (pure) 2-4 thickness 2360-2400, 1-3 thickness 2320-2370, pig iron steel parts 2400-2450, wire rope 2200-2220, pure wire small block 2300-2350, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 29 [Baodie of Anshan, Liaoning] Scrap steel purchase price increased by 50 , execution price: cutting material 2510, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 28 [Baodie of Anshan, Liaoning] Scrap steel purchase price increased by 50 , execution price: shearing material 2460 yuan/ton, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
July 29 [Liaoning Liaoyang Xinpenghui] increased by 100 , execution price: heavy waste 2650, A1 material 2600, A2 material 2550, B material 2440, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton .(China Steel Network, My Steel Network)
. Forecast: Will steel prices rise?
Navigation
Night market futures snail fluctuated higher, market sentiment improved, terminal demand was also released, where should steel prices go in the future? Let's wait and see...
1. The factors influencing the steel market are as follows
blast furnace maintenance increased, steel inventory continued to decline
On July 27, the sample enterprises added 3 new blast furnaces with a total of 1,980 cubic meters of blast furnace maintenance, without information on the resumption of blast furnace production, and the average daily iron and water production on that day decreased by 256,600 tons. No other updates to the maintenance or resumption of electric arc furnaces. This week, four new blast furnaces under inspection were added, with a cumulative capacity of 3760m³. No blast furnaces resumed production this week, and the average daily production of molten iron decreased by 23,400 tons. In terms of inventory, both the steel stock and factory stocks continued to decline this week, with inventory falling by a total of 1.1245 million tons, an increase from last week.
analysts' opinion: The nationwide blast furnace maintenance continues to increase, and output decreases accordingly. At the same time, steel inventory continues to decline and the decline expands, expectations of supply-side shrinkage have increased, which has strong support for steel prices. Steel companies' willingness to support prices may gradually strengthen.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points
, the Federal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to the range of 2.25%-2.50%, in line with expectations. The cumulative interest rate hike from June to July reached 150 basis points, the largest since the early 1980s.
analysts' opinion: The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points this time, which is a continuous large rate hike for two consecutive months. The impact of this interest rate hike has not yet been clearly seen, but this impact may be nonlinear, and the pressure on the prices of various types of assets may gradually increase in the future. With the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates, the upward trend of global interest rates will be the "main theme" of the international financial market in the second half of the year. The downward pressure on global commodity prices may increase rapidly in the second half of the year, and the medium and long-term negative iron ore prices. But at the same time, the rise and fall of domestic iron ore commodities prices must also pay attention to changes on the supply side.
Coke price reduction is about to be implemented
On July 27, some steel mills in Tangshan implemented a reduction in coke prices from 8 pm, with a decrease of 200 yuan/ton and a decrease of 240 yuan/ton. After the adjustment, the current tax-inclusive price of quasi-grade coke was transferred to the factory at 2,290 yuan/ton, and the quasi-grade dry-in excretion of quasi-grade coke was 2,610 yuan/ton.
analyst's opinion: The price increase in coke is about to be implemented. Recently, long-term steelmaking has been released, and the raw material prices in the spot market are running weakly, and cost expectations have declined, which has caused negative news for steel prices. Although the current steel price has risen sharply with the rise in futures, we still need to be wary of the risk of falling spot prices.
The central bank carried out a 2 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation
On July 28, the central bank conducted a 2 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with the winning rate of 2.10%, the same as before.
Ministry of Transport: As of the end of June, there are more than 2,000 new and reconstruction projects of expressways and ordinary national and provincial highways under construction.
As of the end of June, the scale of new and reconstruction projects of expressways and ordinary national and provincial highways under construction has reached 87,000 kilometers, and more than 2,000 projects under construction, with a total investment of about 7.3 trillion yuan.
. In the spot market,
Rebar is the main force and
The market's previous concerns have been significantly released. Today, the prices of steel mills have risen broadly, the sentiment of the spot market has rebounded, the market speculative demand has increased, and the intraday transaction performance is acceptable, and some high-level resources are slightly waiting and watching, and the short-term price is expected to be the main force.
Hot coil oscillated and running
Early trading period rolls fluctuated red, the market mentality improved, merchants actively shipped, the market atmosphere was acceptable, customers purchased on demand, and overall transactions improved. It is expected that the price of hot coils will fluctuate in the short term.
The mid-board low is high and
The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike has been implemented, and the market has rebounded. Merchants took advantage of the situation and actively supported the price and the transactions have improved. The short-term mentality has eased. It is expected that the price will be low and high and dependent tomorrow.
Strip steel fluctuated strongly
This period of the snail fluctuated significantly higher, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike was implemented, and the negative news brought about by the interest rate hike was exhausted, but the market rose too fast and the trading performance was average. However, with the downstream buying sentiment that does not buy downward, the price of steel mills has moved upward, and it is expected that the strip steel market price will be mainly fluctuating in the short term.
Profiles are stable and organized
Domestic market cost support is temporarily stable, demand continues to be weak, market transactions are generalized, merchants are cautiously waiting and watching. However, as the futures spiral rises from a low point, the operating sentiment of the spot market has driven it, some companies have tried to rise, and some companies have cancelled discounts. It is expected that the price of the model will be stable and consolidated in the short term.
Pipes continue to rise steadily
In the early morning, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike was implemented in line with expectations, negative sentiment was exhausted, and futures rose sharply to support it. Today, the spot stock of pipes rose and fell, mainly shipped at high prices. As the end of the month approached, some merchants still had concessions to recover funds. Under the influence of buying up but not buying down sentiment, the market trading atmosphere has improved significantly. It is expected that the pipe market will continue to rise steadily tomorrow.
. In the raw material market,
Steel billets are stable and organized
Due to factors such as profit loss and shipment difficulties, the phenomenon of independent maintenance of steel mills has gradually increased. The overall downstream operating rate is relatively low, while the inventory of steel billets is still at a high level, so the market supply and demand contradiction is prominent. Considering that the intraday trend of futures yesterday was relatively strong and the mentality of manufacturers was supported, it is expected that the short-term billet price will be consolidated steadily.
Iron ore oscillates and runs
With the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment sentiment. However, some steel companies have recently adjusted their rise in search and purchase, which has led to an increase in market demand. However, due to cautious operation, they have maintained on-demand replenishment, and the overall transaction is average, and the market's mineral prices fluctuate in the short term.
Coke runs weakly
Today, mainstream steel mills followed up, coke enterprises maintained production restrictions to varying degrees. Due to poor market demand, coke enterprises' sales are average, and some coke enterprises have a slight accumulation of warehouses. Downstream steel mills have failed to repair their profit losses in time, and the scope of production restrictions and maintenance is still expanding, and the procurement demand of coke enterprises is difficult to increase. It is expected that the coke market will remain weak in the short term.
Scrap steel rose narrowly
The interest rate hike has been implemented today, and the impact on the scrap steel market is slim. The market rebounded, and the billets were driven by the market. The scrap steel market was looking forward to the rise, and the arrival of steel mills has declined, and they have all risen and absorbed goods. It is expected that the short-term scrap steel price will be mainly narrowly.
Pig iron is weak and running
Some iron plants are suspended, resource supply is reduced, but demand is sluggish, and shipments of iron plants are still slow. In addition, the fifth round of coke landing, the bargaining space for pig iron has increased again, and it is expected that the pig iron market will be weak and running in the short term.
4. Comprehensive suggestions
opened in the morning, and the quotations of construction steel in most areas of China rose slightly. The spiral was strongly raised in the later stage of the opening. In addition, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates yesterday, negative news has been consumed in advance, driving the bullish enthusiasm of merchants, and spot goods in various places continue to rise. In terms of transactions, driven by black futures, speculative demand has been released today, and the number of middlemen entering the market has increased significantly, while terminal demand has also been released, and overall shipments have improved significantly compared with yesterday. Overall, the futures spiral has been significantly higher and the market sentiment is positive. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate and rise tomorrow. (China Steel Network)
. Can iron ore prices continue to rise in the near future? When will the trend usher in a reversal?
, domestic refined powder prices continued to show a unilateral decline and rebounded at the end of the month. How will the sustainability of the price rebound at the end of the month be of concern to everyone? How much impact will the Fed rate hike in the morning of the 28th Beijing time have on the market and when will the trend in the second half of the year be reversed? Let me analyze it from several aspects below.
Comparison of domestic iron powder prices this year, and the reasons for different trends
First, let’s take a look at the comparison and the reasons for the difference in the CSI index from January to July this year and the same period last year. From the superimposed chart below, it can be seen that the 2022 CSI index (Part 2) fell significantly from January to July, and the trend was relatively extreme. It showed a significant volatile and strong upward trend in the first quarter, which was stronger than the rise first and then sideways in the same period in 2021. However, it showed a significant downward trend in the second quarter, especially the decline in June, which fell by two-thirds of the rise in the first half of the year in half a month. In contrast, the trend from January to June 2021 was completed in one go, with obvious consistency, rising, sideways trading, accelerating rise and pullbacks, and the overall trend was very smooth.
022, there are many factors that affect domestic ore prices. First of all, because overseas currencies are over-issued, a large amount of funds poured into black varieties for speculation, which significantly pushed up the ore prices. Even though they were affected by the holding of the domestic Winter Olympics during the period, the price did not cause a significant pullback due to strong expectations for the peak demand season. Subsequently, due to the extension of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the extreme monetary policy of the United States, ore prices began to fall. During this period, due to the impression of logistics restrictions caused by domestic anti-epidemic, the prices of refined powder in some mines were adjusted. Afterwards, the southeast region was affected by continuous extreme rainfall, and construction sites were less than expected. In addition, the profit margin of steel mills was squeezed, and there was no sign of improvement in demand, which caused the price of fine powder to plummet. As July began, steel demand recovery was even lower than expected, steel mills' profits were greatly compressed, and most steel mills faced losses to varying degrees. Although steel mills' profits improved, demand recovery still takes time.
Analyze steel demand from supply and demand, explaining the long-term logic of changes in iron ore prices
In recent years, the biggest reason for the changes in iron ore and domestic refined powder prices comes from demand. The demand mainly involves the following three aspects:
. Domestic crude steel production restrictions policy. In 2021, China Steel implemented a relatively strict dual control policy on capacity and output of “de-capacity and control output”. In 2021, China's crude steel output was 1032.79 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3%, and pig iron output was 868.57 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%. In the first half of this year, the regulatory authorities proposed a task of restricting crude steel production in 2022, which is an effective suppression on the prices of steel and upstream ore.
. The real estate market seriously affects steel demand, resulting in limited demand for ore. From January to May, the national real estate data was significantly lowered. Whether in terms of land auctions, investments, or sales and corporate capital, the growth rate of the real estate market has gradually decreased in recent years, and has even turned into negative growth in 2022. Moreover, the continuous control of policies has a certain inhibitory effect on the real estate market. In April, the Politburo meeting mentioned again that "housing for living, not for speculation". At the same time, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a warning warning for cities with large fluctuations in the first quarter in accordance with the "Plan for Steady Implementing the Long-term Mechanism of Real Estate". The "Key Tasks for New Urbanization Construction in 2019" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that we must continue to increase the intensity of reform of the household registration system. It is expected that with the deepening of reform, it is expected that as the future, you can enjoy the convenience of life and social welfare brought by big cities without buying a house, which has also shaken the foundation of housing speculation and caused the real estate industry to gradually shrink.
, the global economy has adjusted significantly, exports have been hindered. This year, the Federal Reserve used a sharp interest rate hike to combat the growing inflationary pressure, and the current economy is also facing the pressure of recession due to inflation and the Russian-Ukrainian war. In the long run, interest rate hikes will curb the demand for commodities, and commodity prices will be under overall pressure due to interest rate hikes. The huge increase in energy prices by the Russian-Ukraine war will aggravate supply chain problems, thereby affecting the economy and putting the global economy at risk of recession.
's outlook for the second half of the year and the recent price forecast
. Let's still analyze the situation of the ore market in the second half of the year from the demand aspect.
From the perspective of demand, there are two main points in domestic demand:
on the one hand is steel for real estate. The demand for real estate steel will gradually decrease in the future.
On the other hand, steel for infrastructure and manufacturing industries is used. In early June, the Ministry of Finance required that the 1.12 trillion yuan new special bonds in 2022 be basically issued by the end of June, and strive to be basically used by the end of August. The six-year infrastructure investment will be further strengthened to stabilize the economy. It is expected that the annual infrastructure investment will increase by 10% compared with last year. According to experts' estimates, the annual infrastructure steel will increase by about 35 million tons year-on-year. In terms of manufacturing, domestic sales of construction machinery, home appliances, etc. have declined sharply, but the export situation is good, and the overall trend is showing a downward trend. The automobile and shipbuilding industries have maintained a good operating state, and the steel used for manufacturing is basically stable. In terms of steel use, it is expected to be the same as last year or slightly increase, but the growth is limited.
Overall, the domestic demand for steel for steel will be reduced by about 75 million tons this year, which is not optimistic overall.
Internationally, weak demand has not changed. As overseas countries continue to lie down, the danger of the epidemic of mutant varieties of the new coronavirus still exists. In addition, the surge in energy prices caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war will seriously affect the overseas production supply chain, leading to a comprehensive economic recession, and further reduce demand. This has a negative impact on the amount of steel used.
From the perspective of futures prices, the main iron ore futures contract is currently at a low point this year, and from the perspective of position, it is at a low level. Please look at the figure below (as of the closing of the trading day on July 27), the positions of the circles in the figure are located in: mid-November 2021, mid-to-late December 2021, February 2022, and mid-July 2022. It can be seen from the figure that the low point in July is at the same level as the price in February 2022. In February this year, production restrictions are limited during the off-season of demand and the Winter Olympics. The market fundamentals are weak, and the market recognized prices are above this position, which constitutes support for prices. As for the low point in mid-November 2021, when crude steel production restrictions were relatively severe, combined with the off-season demand, demand was extremely weak, so the price was at the lowest point.
As can be seen from the figure below, the price increase this week is too sharp. Judging from the previous trend, the subsequent upward momentum has weakened, and coupled with the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in the early morning of the 28th Beijing time, it may lead to a price decline. However, because the market has long expected a rate hike, unless it really cuts interest rates by 100 basis points beyond expectations, it is unlikely to fall below the recent low. According to CME's Fed Watch, the market currently expects that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points to 2.25%-2.5% tonight is 75.1%, and the probability of 100 basis points to 2.5%-2.75% is 24.9%. Although it seems that the probability of raising interest rates by 3/4 at 75 basis points is not particularly high, it is still impossible to completely rule out the possibility of the Federal Reserve directly raising interest rates by 100 basis points tonight. However, based on the statements of Federal Reserve officials before the silence period, the release of the Federal Reserve's mouthpiece, and the expectations of Wall Street investment banks, the possibility of 100 basis points this month is expected to be extremely limited.
Personally believe that with the gradual decline in iron ore and coke prices in the near future, the profit level of steel mills will gradually return to normal. In August, domestic steel mill demand will further recover, and steel mill profits will increase. However, the market needs a certain amount of time to digest inventory and wait for demand to improve further. It is expected that from late August to early September, with the final arrival of the peak season for steel demand, ore prices will usher in a continuous rise, which is what we often call a reversal. (Zhonglian Steel United Steel Network)
. The "danger" and "opportunities" faced by steel companies in the second half of the year
In the first half of this year, the domestic steel market was in a game of stable growth and strong expectations of low demand and weak reality. At the same time, due to the strong support of high costs, domestic steel prices continued to rise under the influence of strong expectations and high costs. However, due to the drag of aggressive interest rate hikes in the Federal Reserve and the reality of low demand, domestic steel prices began to fluctuate and decline in mid-April, and the sharp decline of finished products also led to a pullback on the raw material side. Overall, the domestic steel market experienced a trend of rising and falling in the first half of the year.
Entering the second half of the year, the domestic steel market showed a continuous bottoming out and gradually stabilizing. In July, the average absolute price index of Lange Steel was 4374 yuan/ton, down 804 yuan/ton from the average in the first half of the year; the highest value was 4656 yuan/ton (July 1), the lowest value was 4183 yuan/ton (July 15), and the largest drop in the month reached 473 yuan/ton; it gradually stabilized in the middle and late quarters, rebounding slightly. As of July 26, the absolute price index of Lange Steel was 4238 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from the lowest value of the month. (See Figure 1 for details).
Figure 1 2022 Lange Steel Absolute Price Index Trend Chart
In the first half of the year, the supply side of the steel market decreased year-on-year, and rebounded month-on-month
In the first half of 2022, the supply side of the domestic steel market showed a year-on-year decrease and month-on-month rebound, among which pig iron production hit a new monthly high. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June 2022, my country's pig iron production was 438.93 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%; crude steel production was 526.88 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%; steel production was 667.14 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. Among them, the pig iron production of large and medium-sized steel enterprises was 365.87 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, accounting for 83.4% of the national pig iron production; the crude steel production was 415.29 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1%, accounting for 78.8% of the national crude steel production; the steel production was 402.33 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, accounting for 60.3% of the national steel production. Judging from the production of each variety, the production reduction of construction steel varieties is significantly greater than that of plate varieties, indicating that the adjustment of the supply-end variety structure is more obvious (see Table 1 for details).
Table 1 National major metallurgical products production in the first half of 2022
Entering the second half of the year, domestic steel production companies have begun a process of significantly reduced production under the pressure of losses. According to statistics from the China Steel Industry Association, the average daily production of pig iron in key steel enterprises in early and mid-July 2022 was 1.912 million tons, a decrease of 4.58% from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 1.44%; the average daily production of crude steel was 2.0579 million tons, a decrease of 6.43% from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 4.00% (see Figure 2 for details); the average daily production of steel was 2.0204 million tons, a decrease of 6.94% from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 2.33%.
Figure 2 From 2017 to 2022, large and medium-sized steel enterprises have crude steel production
steel enterprises have doubled the pressure to destock Operating profits have declined significantly
As downstream demand has recovered less than expected since this year, the steel inventory of domestic steel companies is also significantly higher than in previous years, and the pressure of steel companies to destock has doubled. According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Industry Association, the steel inventory of key steel companies in mid-July 2022 was 19.0313 million tons, an increase of 2.0827 million tons from the end of last month, an increase of 12.29%; an increase of 7.7344 million tons from the beginning of the year, an increase of 68.49%; an increase of 4.1135 million tons from the same period last year, an increase of 27.57% (see Figure 3 for details).
Figure 3 Steel inventory of large and medium-sized steel companies from 2017 to 2022
At the same time, due to the high costs and the sharp drop in steel prices, domestic steel companies have dragged down into a situation of significant losses. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June 2022, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry achieved operating income of 4575.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%; operating costs were 4332.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%; and the total profit was 82.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 68.7%. (See Figures 4, 5, 6 for details). For listed companies of steel companies, the decline in performance has just been reflected. Up to now, 25 A-share companies in the steel industry have disclosed their performance forecasts for the first half of 2022, with a slight increase of 1, an expected increase of 4, a slight decrease of 3, a 4 loss for the first time, and a continued loss of 1, and a 1 expected decrease of 1.
Figure 4 Total profit and cost share of steel industry from 2017 to 2022
Figure 5 Total profit and cost and sales profit margin of steel industry from 2017 to 2022
Figure 6 National crude steel production and tons of steel profits from 2017 to 2022
"danger" and "opportunities" faced by steel companies in the second half of the year
At present, the domestic steel market will face a global interest rate hike in the second half of the year. Domestic growth will be stable in the domestic market, supply shrinking will be a game of steel companies, strong expectations will turn weak in the game of weak in the game of weak in the game of reality, overall demand will turn warm in the game of downstream structural adjustment, and other factors such as factors such as the impact of multiple factors such as the global trend of interest rate hikes. As for the trend of the domestic steel market, the domestic steel market will gradually warm up under the guidance of strong expectations in the second half of the year, under the guidance of the accelerated implementation of strong expectations, the demand side will gradually warm up, the supply side will gradually shrink, and the raw material cost side may continue to move downward. Therefore, the domestic steel market will show a volatile rebound in the second half of the year, but under the influence of multiple factors, the probability of a sharp unilateral rise in the market is relatively small.
Then in the second half of the year, steel companies also face a situation where "danger" and "opportunities" coexist. First of all, steel companies should maintain a good market mentality, adjust the intensity of capacity release, and reduce the pressure of rising costs by making good use of the effective results of reducing costs and increasing efficiency. Secondly, the product structure should be adjusted from the long-term "dual carbon" goal to adapt to changes in downstream demand, and gradually shift the products toward high profits and high quality, injecting new impetus into the long-term high-quality development of steel companies. (Langge Steel Network)
. Langge Research: Faced with the global interest rate hike storm, steady growth will continue to increase in the second half of the year
The steel market faces the biggest external environment in the second half of the year, that is, the risk of global economic recession has increased significantly. This is mainly because of severe inflation, which has caused central banks around the world to radically tighten monetary policies, causing a sharp increase in economic downward pressure. The US CPI rose 9.1% in June, and authoritative institutions once again lowered their expectations for global economic growth, and the risk of a global economy falling into recession is getting greater and greater. Severe inflation and the risk of recession will inevitably impact the total world demand and create rising economic pressure. On the other hand, the risk of global economic recession has increased and China's external demand environment has deteriorated. In order to achieve the planned economic growth target for the whole year, it will also prompt domestic policy to stabilize growth.
. Infrastructure investment adds new impetus. This is mainly a policy-based financial tool that opens up infrastructure space. Not long ago, the State Council proposed to raise 300 billion yuan through financial instruments to supplement the capital of major projects. Some analysts believe that it (capital) is expected to leverage more than 2 trillion yuan of incremental funds, which can make the future infrastructure growth rate reach more than 15%. The accelerated investment in infrastructure will increase the demand for steel accordingly.
. Fiscal policy is more positive. The focus of fiscal policy, in addition to the many measures that have been introduced before, it is possible to add at least 1.5 trillion yuan of fiscal incremental funds in the second half of the year. The ways to supplement funds include issuing the special bond quota for local governments next year in advance. Because in the first half of the year, we have issued a total of 3.4 trillion yuan of bonds, with a progress of 93% of the annual indicators, and about 66% have been invested in the infrastructure field. The pressure to stabilize growth in the second half of the year remains. In the second quarter, China's GDP grew by 0.4% year-on-year, and it is not easy to achieve positive growth under the headwind. Faced with the annual GDP growth target of 5.5%, this requires additional new funds to stimulate infrastructure investment. Since the total bond quota this year has been basically issued and used, it is very likely that the decision-making department will use the special bond quota for the second year in advance. At present, the project reserves are relatively sufficient and can undertake the early use of special bonds.
. The monetary policy continues to be relatively loose. The reason why fiscal policy is more active is that monetary policy has limited efforts to further expand easing. For some time, due to the severe global inflation situation, major Western countries such as the Federal Reserve have begun a radical interest rate hike process.The Federal Reserve still raised interest rates by 75BP in July, and Goldman Sachs also expects to raise interest rates by 50BP in September, and raise interest rates by 25BP in November and December, with the final interest rate reaching 3.25% to 3.5%. The ECB also recently raised 50BP interest rates. Against this background, in order to avoid excessive interest rate spreads between China and foreign countries and to slow down the pressure of rising imported prices, it is expected that the expectation of comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year will be significantly weakened or even disappeared. Of course, China's monetary policy will not tighten with Western countries, but will keep monetary policy relatively loose, achieve a reasonable level of liquidity, reduce corporate financing costs, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for consolidating economic recovery. Based on this, this relatively loose money supply is expected to remain unchanged in the second half of the year.
. Real estate expectations have improved. htmlChinese home buyer confidence index also rebounded sharply in June, and real estate market expectations improved. According to the 2022 "June National Housing Index Report" released by 58.com and Anjuke, the three indicators reflecting market expectations in June all improved, and the home buyer confidence index rebounded significantly. The report pointed out that the home buyer confidence index in June was 105.0, up 12.0% month-on-month. In June, the popularity of new home search in China increased by 2.3% month-on-month, showing an upward trend overall. Among them, the popularity of new houses in first-tier cities increased by 16.9% month-on-month. Among them, the popularity of houses in Shanghai increased by 64.4% month-on-month in June, and Shenzhen also increased by 9.0% month-on-month.
Even so, the growth rate of national real estate investment is still not ideal. It is expected that relevant departments will adopt a series of incremental policies in the second half of the year to stabilize the long-term development of the real estate market. The policy of stabilizing real estate support is expected to continue, such as adjusting the down payment ratio as follows, lowering mortgage interest rates, relaxing or canceling purchase restrictions in first-tier cities. Further restore home buyer confidence and home sales until investment returns to normal. ( Lange Steel Research)
. The steel mill takes a heavy blow! Rebar rose by more than 400, returning to 4000! Is it spring to survive the cold winter?
On July 28, 2022, the main force of rebar returned to 4,000 yuan/ton, rising from the lowest point by more than 400 yuan/ton! Is the dawn of the steel industry coming? ?
2 has arrived, and the steel industry is facing a severe situation. More than 30 steel mills analyze the industry situation, take heavy blows, and actively respond to challenges. At present, certain results have been achieved. The specific content is as follows:
. Baowu Group: Recognize the current severe situation and effectively enhance the awareness of crisis
July 25, Chen Derong demanded that we must unify our thinking, strengthen our confidence, maintain our determination, actively respond to difficulties and challenges, and seize opportunities to plan development. We must not only recognize the current situation, effectively enhance our sense of crisis, unify our thinking, and strengthen our confidence, and prepare for "winter" or even long-term "winter" ; , but we must also be good at turning crises into opportunities, seize opportunities to seek development and stabilize growth. We must grasp the laws of development of things, and regard "winter" as a good opportunity to practice.
. Baogang Co., Ltd.: Practice internal skills and strengthen skills, overcome difficulties together, overcome difficulties together
On July 26, Baogang Co., Ltd. issued an initiative to all cadres and employees. Faced with a new round of cruel market competition, each of our employees has the responsibility and obligation to move in the same direction as the shares, overcome difficulties together, and overcome difficulties together, and quickly transform to living a "tight life" and "hard life".
. Taigang Group: Recognize the situation and respond to challenges
On July 26, Li Hua, general manager and deputy secretary of the Party Committee of Taigang Group, said that change is an eternal theme. As a business operator, you must calm down, understand changes objectively and rationally, work hard to change yourself, and actively respond to challenges. The most fundamental thing is to consolidate the foundation, build a solid foundation, strengthen the body, and improve abilities in the process of change. Taigang Group has the confidence and ability to respond to changes and challenges, strive to complete the established goals and tasks, and contribute Taigang's strength to Baowu's achievement of the annual goals and tasks.
. Jiugang Group: We must understand the situation and firmly establish the idea of living a "tight life, hard life"
On July 25, Cheng Zijian, general manager and deputy secretary of the Party Committee of Jiugang Group, emphasized that we must recognize the situation, abandon fantasies, firmly establish the idea of "tight life, hard life", continue to carry out the benchmarking and matching of "Amoeba" business management and business management, strengthen cost management, force cost reduction, prevent and resolve various risks, and resolutely win the battle of stopping slippage, reducing losses and increasing profits with extraordinary measures.
. Jiyuan Steel: Recognize the situation and prepare for a long-term "hard life"
On July 25, Jiyuan Steel issued an initiative to all employees. The current steel industry is losing a large area of losses and is in a trend of continuing to expand. A new round of industry reshuffle has arrived. All cadres and employees must recognize the situation, respond quickly without waiting or relying on it, strengthen execution, and persevere in practicing their internal skills.
. Shangang Group: Maintain stability, adhere to the bottom line, stabilize growth
On July 23, Shangang Group stated that in the second half of the year, the whole group should focus on scientific research and judgment to strengthen with "change", build solid comparative advantages, quickly release aggregate efficiency, dig deep into the system's efficiency creation capabilities, make every effort to reduce various inventory, and maximize policy dividends. The key tasks in these six aspects will strive to fully complete the group's annual task goals.
. Shougang Jingtang: Grind your teeth and fight the "cold winter"
On July 22, Shougang Jingtang said that under the current situation, the group and the company's party committees carefully researched and made comprehensive arrangements, calling on all cadres and employees to be mentally prepared to live "hard, difficult, and tight days" for a long time, get nervous immediately, act quickly, and effectively respond to the market winter.
. Hesteel Group: Put a lot of effort into the transformation from steel to materials and manufacturing to services
On July 21, Hesteel Group Yu Yong demanded that the "two structures" optimization be promoted with the concept of continuous update and keeping pace with the times, keep the group's structural adjustment in synchronization with the national industrial structure adjustment and economic and social transformation and development, put a lot of effort into the transformation from steel to materials and manufacturing to services, and accelerate the pace of transformation and upgrading and high-quality development.
, 10, Delong, Xintiangang: Maintain strategic determination and actively respond to challenges
On July 20, Jing Yue, Secretary of the Party Committee of Xintiangang Group, pointed out that the market test has just begun. Only by actively responding, adhering to the essence of the enterprise, following industry laws, market laws, and enterprise development laws can we create comparative advantages and firmly grasp the initiative in survival and development.
1. Magang: Make every effort to fight the tough battle of "maintaining survival in the current period and promoting development in the long term"
On July 20, Liu Guowang, deputy secretary of the Party Committee of the Group Company, and deputy secretary of the Party Committee of the Joint Stock Company, pointed out that "history is always amazingly similar, but it will not be simply repeated." Faced with the severe situation, we must put forward real skills, hard skills and practical skills, respond to changes, respond quickly, and turn crisis into opportunities.
2, Baosteel Co., Ltd.: July and August will be the most difficult two months of operation
On July 20, Hu Hong, member of the Standing Committee of the Party Committee and deputy general manager of Baosteel Co., Ltd., said that in the face of the severe market situation, Baosteel Co., Ltd. is confident that it will outperform the market, ensure the industry's first position, and make due contributions to Baowu's completion of the annual goals and tasks. July and August will be the two most difficult months for business. The subsequent market conditions will rebound, but it will be difficult for steel prices and market demand to return to the highs at the beginning of the year.
3. Rongcheng Steel: The market situation has changed dramatically, and we strive to achieve "striving for success"
July 19, Chairman Zhang Ronghua emphasized that at present, the international situation has undergone major changes, and the national strategy and market environment are also constantly changing. Steel soldiers must seriously understand the mid-year tasks, group strategy and the situation facing the steel industry. The basic steel chain cannot be broken. We must stabilize the market, strive to be a master of "chain protection" and stick to every position.
4. Shagang Yongxing: Strengthen confidence, cheer up, face difficulties
On July 22, Shagang Yongxing issued a letter to all employees, to fully recognize the severity of the current situation, and to unify thoughts, strengthen confidence, cheer up, face difficulties. In a critical period of company transformation and upgrading, we must think together, work together, unite and strive to overcome difficulties with the company.
5. Shaogang: Live a "tight life" and resolutely win the new round of survival and defense battle
July 22, Shaogang Company emphasized that reducing costs and efficiency must be resolutely reduced, and resolutely reduced costs; economic materials must be resolutely adjusted, and resolutely adjusted if they can be adjusted; variety optimization must be resolutely and market-oriented; practice thrift must be resolutely, and resolutely not invest if they can be invested; reduce inventory must be resolutely and resolutely to quickly enter and exit.
6. Shagang Group: The entire industry currently has large-scale losses and there is a trend of continuing to expand
On July 11, Shen Bin, Secretary of the Party Committee, Executive Executive Director of the Board of Directors, and Chairman of the Co., Ltd., said that the macro environment in the second half of the year is complex and severe, the international economy faces great inflationary pressure, and the downward pressure on the domestic economy is still very large, especially at present, the entire industry has large-scale losses and there is a trend of continuing to expand, and the market situation is extremely severe.
7. Puyang Steel: Be prepared to live a tight life for a long time
On July 18, Puyang Steel issued a letter to all employees, requiring them to persist in internal management and practice internal skills; grasp precise operations and practice hard skills. We will do our best to do our business in a solid and detailed manner, and try our best to increase revenue and increase income. We must do whatever we can do on our own. We must normalize the analysis of large-cycle periods and predict the market, operate according to the market trend, and absolutely not bet on the market.
8. Shougang Group: Faced with the severe market environment, we will do our best to reduce costs
On July 18, Zhang Gongyan, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of the Group, pointed out that the current severe situation is already in front of us. We must keep a clear head, throw away our fantasies, and fight with our backs. In our thinking, we must quickly change from living a "good life" to "tight life" and "hard life" to effectively enhance the sense of crisis and urgency.
9. Guotang Steel: Work hard in one place and be a good practitioner of cost reduction and efficiency improvement
On July 21, Guotang Steel issued the initiative of "reducing costs and increasing efficiency, starting from me", requiring all cadres and employees to work hard in their actions, give full play to their intelligence and ownership, put forward a good suggestion, do a good job in a small innovation, strive to be a pioneer in business management, a model for scientific research, management and service stars, and skills improvement models, and temper the survival skills of the company and itself through "reducing costs and increasing efficiency improvement".
0. Hong Kong and Mainland Steel: In the face of cost reduction and efficiency improvement activities, we will help the company solve difficulties with practical actions
On July 19, Hong Kong and Mainland Steel issued an initiative to all employees, requiring the courage and confidence to be willing to live a "tight life" and strive to live a "good life" and to stimulate motivation layer by layer, tap potential, strive to be an advocate and promoter of cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and promote the formation of a good atmosphere of "everyone talks about saving, everything talks about costs, and everywhere strives to increase efficiency".
1, Liugang Group: It is experiencing a new round of downward cycle in the steel industry
On July 15, Li Bin, Chairman and Party Secretary of Liugang Group, delivered an important speech entitled "Understanding difficulties and ensuring survival Continue struggle and striving for a new chapter with the spirit of ownership to make new contributions to the high-quality development of Liugang." He pointed out that at present, Liugang Group is experiencing a new round of downward cycle in the steel industry and is facing difficulties and situations that are more severe than previous financial crises and steel crises. We must firmly grasp the general tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" and strive to complete all goals and tasks in accordance with the development requirements of "preventing the epidemic, stabilizing the economy, and safe development".
2. Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd.: The company is facing the risk of loss, and the operating situation in the second half of the year will be extremely difficult
On July 15, Ao Aiguo, deputy secretary of the Party Committee and general manager of Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., pointed out that according to the current internal and external information forecast, the operating situation in the second half of the year will be extremely difficult. Managers at all levels should promptly transmit the overall industry situation, market trends, difficulties and goals faced by the company to employees at all levels.
3. Jingye Group: Be prepared for long-term losses in steel and do your best to ensure survival
On July 15, Jingye Group held a conference on "Going all to ensure survival, strengthening confidence and promoting development" in the conference room on the fourth floor of the Employees University. Afterwards, the participants learned the spirit of the recent speeches of the group, prepared for long-term losses of steel, and firmly believed in fighting for the survival and development of dedicated work.
4. Bengang Group: anchor the annual target and do not relax
July 12, Yang Wei, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of Bengang Group, emphasized that we must not only summarize experience, achievements and shortcomings, but also anchor the annual target and do not relax; we must not only sell products at a good price, but also focus on reducing costs; we must not only focus on reforms, but also ensure safety production and stability of petitions. Party committees at all levels should follow the three-year action plan for state-owned enterprise reform and the deployment requirements of Ansteel Group, and make progress step by step, steadily and vigorously. Safety work requires the same responsibility as the party and government and two responsibilities as one post. We must compare the "8 Steel Regulations" to quickly rectify safety issues and increase the intensity of safety hazard investigation.
5. Xingang Group: The industry situation is severe and complex. Implement the "Fifteen-word" policy
On July 20, Liu Jianrong pointed out that turning crisis into opportunity will not fall from the sky, we must do it together. Faced with the severe and complex industry situation, we must firmly remember and implement the "Fifteen-word" policy. It is emphasized that the fifteen words "reducing inventory, adjusting structure, reducing costs, improving quality, and strengthening management" should be taken as an action policy to cope with the current situation in the steel industry. Each factory department should formulate measures and mobilize all employees, and the company will inspect and accept them one by one.
6, Hunan Iron and Steel Group: Determine the situation, set measures, fight the crisis, and ensure survival
On July 6, Hunan Iron and Steel Group's mid-year work meeting and benchmarking exchange meeting were held at Henggang. The meeting pointed out that under any circumstances, it is necessary to ensure that the production before iron is stable and the structure after steel is adjusted to ensure that the profit level of Hunan Steel Group is above the industry's average "lifeline". Strengthen the market-oriented concept, do not produce loss-making products, and small-profit products must be limited. The sales department must dispatch all employees to grab orders and increase the increase in effective varieties. Focus on promoting the complementary complementation of bulk raw fuels such as imported ore and coking coal, and ensure that the group's raw fuel inventory is minimized while maintaining normal production. Continue to improve production organization capabilities and comprehensively reduce finished products and semi-finished products inventory, etc.
7. Angang Group: Vigorously promote cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and reverse the passive situation of production and operation as soon as possible
On July 20, Li Lijian pointed out that problems are direction, achievements are confidence, and situation is task. We must take efficiency improvement as the general logic that runs through the overall situation of the company, and quickly transform from living a "good life" to "tight life" and "hard life", resolutely be "really dare to think", really dare to do", "really know how to do", and "really capable", and vigorously promote new breakthroughs in key tasks such as cost reduction and efficiency improvement, prevent risks, deepen reform, and industrial transformation, and reverse the passive situation of production and operation as soon as possible.
8. Huaigang Company: Together with one's heart and effort, seek development together, Overcoming difficulties together
July 6, Chen Jianlong, Secretary of the Discipline Inspection Commission and Chairman of the Trade Union of Huaigang Company, emphasized that the current situation in the steel industry is extremely severe, and most steel companies have entered a loss-making state, and Huaigang Company has not been able to "stay alone". Faced with the severe market situation, Huaigang Company can only unite and grit their teeth and persevere, and only focus on practicing "internal strength" inward, optimize production organization, refine cost reduction and subsidy, and "tighten the belt" to "spend the winter."
9. Xingcheng Special Steel: In the second half of the year, we will strive to exceed the annual operating target
July 6, Luo Yuandong, Secretary of the Party Committee and General Manager of Xingcheng Special Steel, said that in the second half of the year, Xingcheng Special Steel should aim to maximize efficiency as our goal, further build consensus, be prepared for danger in times of peace, insist on keeping a close eye on the two core indicators of "cost and profit", adhere to the three red lines of "safety, environmental protection, and quality", and focus on party building, safe and efficient production, cost reduction, quality improvement, product research and development innovation, work style construction, etc., and strive to exceed the annual operating target by "maintaining the quarter with monthly and quarterly", and strive to achieve the annual operating target.
0. Northeast Special Steel: Deeply grasp the cost reduction work and minimize unnecessary cost investment
On July 20, Chairman Gong Sheng emphasized at the production and operation benefit analysis meeting of Northeast Special Steel Group in June and the first half of the year that it is necessary to comprehensively grasp the cost reduction work, every work, every link, every position, and even every employee must grasp the cost, and implement the cost indicators at the grassroots positions. While creating benefits, we must minimize unnecessary cost investment, and use every position and every department to reduce costs to achieve efficiency improvements in the entire group.
1. Jinding Steel: overcome difficulties, face challenges, and ensure survival. We will do our best to
. Safety is not the same as their ambition, and danger is not the same as the same. The current severe market situation is self-evident. Many unfavorable factors are coming one after another. The cost of raw fuel prices remains high, and steel prices continue to fall. The huge "scissors gap" between the two ends has caused the sharp decline in the efficiency of steel companies and the losses continue to expand. Faced with the increasingly severe market situation, we have created a "must-answer question" for the company's operations and production. Whether we can answer it well and hand it over the paper tests the wisdom and ability of all our Jinding family. We must firmly believe that danger and opportunity coexist, and the times and momentum are still in my mind. We must be one and work together, show the enthusiasm for hard work, the spirit of pioneering and striving for progress, and draw a "concentric circle" to develop together, and hand in the "qualified volume" of extreme transcendence.
2. Jingang Group: Recognize the situation, take action, and do a good job in living a "tight life" and "hard life" for a long time.
Cadres and employees must recognize the current situation, throw away their fantasies, not wait or rely on others, and establish the idea of living a "tight life" and "hard life". The production department must persist in internal management and practice internal skills; grasp precise operations and practice hard skills. If the business department wants to find ways to increase revenue, reduce expenditure, increase revenue, respond quickly, and make immediate changes, the key is to implement it in place. ( Taike Steel)
. Supply stabilizes, inventory disposal, consumption rebounds, confidence boosts
[Comprehensive conclusion]
supply, in terms of supply, , the supply of major steel varieties fell to 8.831 million tons this week, a decrease of 1,300 tons, a decrease of 0.01%, of which building materials increased by 22,000 tons, an increase of 0.6%; plates decreased by 23,400 tons, a decrease of 0.4%.
This week, the overall supply of major steel varieties remained relatively stable, with only a slight decrease of 1,300 tons. From the perspective of variety, the building materials level is expected to rebound at a low level. Among them, the motivation for increasing production of long-process production enterprises is relatively average. The main reason is that the price of scrap steel has fallen sharply in recent times, the cost of raw materials has dropped significantly, and the profit level has rebounded in the spot situation, which has led to a slight recovery in the production status of enterprises. However, scrap steel recycling is still a major problem. If it is not solved in time, electric furnace enterprises will face passive production reductions again after large-scale digestion of scrap steel inventory. Since most of the samples are long-process companies, the supply of sheet materials is relatively stable this week.
To sum up, at this stage, spot prices have stabilized and rebounded, and spot profits of steel companies are profitable. Therefore, it is not ruled out that some companies are actively resuming production, but the policy environment suppresses, and production reduction is still the main theme, and the probability of large-scale production increases is not high. supply is still at a low level in the short term .In terms of inventory of
, the total inventory of five major steel varieties of continued to sell month-on-month, down to 18.3599 million tons, a week-on-month decrease of 1.1239 million tons, a decrease of 5.8%. Among them, the inventory of building materials decreased by 1 million tons, a decrease of 8.4%; the inventory of plate materials decreased by 123,600 tons, a decrease of 1.6%; by indicators, the inventory of the five major steel varieties decreased by 540,600 tons, a decrease of 9.5%; the social inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 583,300 tons, a decrease of 4.2%.
Inventory is still in a state of depletion this week, and there are two main reasons: One is that the supply side continues to tighten, and it is still at a low level year-on-year. There are obvious restrictions on the inflow of market resources, so it will digest its own inventory; the second is that spot prices stabilize and rebound this week, market confidence is significantly boosted, purchasing enthusiasm has improved, purchase orders are added, and the pace of shipment is accelerated. Therefore, inventory still declined month-on-month this week.
In addition, at this stage, there is also expectation of resumption of production on the supply side, output may recover slightly, and there are signs of gradual improvement on the demand side, so inventory is likely to continue to sell, but if the recovery speed of the supply side is higher than that of the demand side, the sales rate may slow down significantly; but on the contrary, the mismatch between supply and demand will accelerate the decline of the inventory. In terms of consumption of
, the weekly consumption of this week increased by 1.8%; among which the consumption of building materials increased by 1.2% month-on-month, and the consumption of board materials decreased by 2.3% month-on-month.
Judging from the market trading atmosphere this week, the trading volume remained relatively stable month-on-month last week and rose slightly. From the perspective of demand performance, the market's excessive trading demand in the early stage shows that the actual valuation of demand is too low, which has significantly reflected the recovery of demand in the near future and has led to the recovery of market confidence.
Overall, the off-season was not as weak as expected. may maintain a slow recovery in the short term, but it is still weak year-on-year. In addition, the near future is the time for the National Political Conference, so you can pay more attention to it.
According to Mysteel statistics, in terms of building materials, by variety, the overall supply of building materials this week has increased slightly. From a regional perspective, except for East China, North China and Northwest, the rest have seen a small increase in production, and Sichuan, Yunnan, Henan and Guangxi have performed outstandingly, and these provinces are also areas with relatively concentrated short-process enterprises. The main reason is that the long-term production reduction is relatively in place at this stage and there is no motivation to increase production, so the supply is relatively stable; while short-term production enterprises have seen a sharp decline in raw material costs and spot profit levels have rebounded, and the production status of some enterprises has slightly recovered. In terms of hot coils, the hot rolling output continued to decline this week, with the decline significantly shrinking. Some steel mills in East China, North China and South China have added new maintenance this week. The main reason for the maintenance/production reduction is that blast furnace molten iron slowly recovers, which is reflected in the finished material end, which will take a long time. In addition, the losses of steel mills continue to occur, resulting in steel companies actively reducing production and supply continue to decrease.
According to Mysteel statistics, in terms of building materials, building materials inventory continued to sell month-on-month this week, with a slightly larger decline than last week. In terms of comprehensive building materials, inventory in all regions across the country has declined, and Shandong and Jiangsu in East China; Shanxi and Southwest in North China; and Xichuan and Yunnan in West China have performed more prominently. The main reason is that the supply side continues to tighten, spot prices stabilize and rebound, downstream procurement enthusiasm improves, shipment pace accelerates, and steel mills have successively issued preliminary orders, so the inventory level of steel mills is still significantly reduced. In terms of hot coils, steel mill inventory dropped sharply this week, the main decline areas are in central China, Northeast China and South China. Among them, the inventory pressure in central China and Northeast China is relatively high, and steel mills take the initiative to give in, and then take orders themselves, accelerating the decline in inventory. In addition, the reason for the inventory reduction is that the area represents steel mills to maintain maintenance/reduce production, but the pace of inventory delivery remains normal, which further sells inventory.
According to Mysteel statistics, in terms of building materials, taking rebar as an example, from the three major regions, East China, South and North China decreased by 127,600 tons, 180,100 tons and 100,000 tons respectively this week; from the seven major regions, inventory in each region has been reduced, and East China, Central China and South China performed outstandingly, and cities for the reduction of warehouses are mainly Hangzhou, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Changsha, Beijing and other cities. In terms of hot coils, from the perspective of the three major regions, East China increased by 13,300 tons month-on-month this week, while the south and north decreased by 37,000 tons and 5,000 tons month-on-month respectively; from the perspective of the seven major regions, except East China, Central China and Northwest, the rest of the regions have reduced their warehouses to varying degrees. From the perspective of cities, Nanjing and Baotou are the main cities for increasing the warehouse, and Lecong and Handan are the main cities for reducing the warehouse.
According to Mysteel statistics, the total inventory of the five major varieties this week was 18.3599 million tons, a week-on-month decrease of 1.1239 million tons, a decrease of 5.8%. Among them, building materials inventory decreased by 1 million tons, a decrease of 8.4%; plate inventory decreased by 123,600 tons, a decrease of 1.6%. total inventory in the previous period was 19.4838 million tons, a week-on-month decrease of 946,400 tons, a decrease of 4.63%. Among them, the inventory of building materials decreased by 969,000 tons, a decrease of 7.5%; the inventory of plate materials increased by 22,600 tons, a increase of 0.3%.
(My Steel Network)
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